Liability for School if an Injured Student Continues to Play a Ballgame
| Tuesday December 14, 2021 |  | #DMD |  | Issue #2669 |
penn swimmer ignites controversy
A University of Pennsylvania female swimmer set a bunch of records recently in the pool at the University of Akron. That's the good news, at least for her. Lia Thomas set a new school, meet and pool record in something called the Zippy Invitational and also set an Ivy League record in the 500-yard freestyle final.
This is Ms. Thomas's third year on the Penn swim team.
The first two years, she competed as a male.
This year, she's competing as a female, having transitioned in 2020.
After taking a mandated one year absence in order to partake in testosterone suppression, Thomas is back. But not without controversy.
Her school, pool and conference records have left a number of people wondering about the fairness of it all, particularly given Ms. Thomas previously competed on the men's team and was a quality swimmer for the Quakers.
Opponents and even teammates have reacted angrily to Thomas's domination this year.
So who is right?
The transgender subject in college sports has been polarizing in recent years, especially in the male-to-female sector, where testosterone suppression still doesn't level the supposed physical playing field.
The NCAA has been under great scrutiny throughout the discussion about transgender athletes, eventually settling on the mandated 1-year hiatus and testosterone suppression as a way of satisfying those who say a male-to-female transitioned athlete has the potential to dominate her new sport.
Well? What's right? And what's wrong?
There are actually two "levels", if you will, of transitioning high school or college athletes that some experts are factoring in when discussing a trans athlete's eligibility.
The first is an athlete who transitioned before beginning to participate on their high school or college team. For example, if a 16-year old male-to-female athlete completes her testosterone supression treatment prior to entering college, then it makes total sense to allow her to compete as a female in college. In other words, she competed in high school as a male and then wants to compete in college as a female.
The other scenario, where a male-to-female athlete transitions during college, is far more controversial. It could be viewed, as a number of experts have argued recently, patently unfair to naturally-born-female-athletes.
This is not meant to slander the trans community in any way or single out Lia Thomas has a "problem child". She is welcome to transition and lead the life she wants to lead. What she shouldn't be allowed to do, some are claiming, is to compete at the University of Pennsylvania as both a male and a female. Some of her supporters are saying that it's fair to her to allow it. Others would suggest it's not fair at all to everyone else competing against her.
So what do we do? Do we create a rule for the benefit of one (or a few) at the expense, potentially, of thousands of others competing in the same sport and/or same conference? Or do you put the needs of the thousands ahead of the needs of the few?
It's a slippery slope, because any refusal to allow a trans athlete compete is looked upon as a "terrible message" to the trans community.
The records and stats, though, tell a different story.
Allowing Lia Thomas to compete as a female this year has created a huge advantage for Penn's team, but has also cost other female swimmers opportunities to compete and, perhaps, win.
It's a tough scenario to navigate. But it really shouldn't be. College sports should be inclusive to all, but once you begin a sport in one gender, you should have to complete your eligibility in that gender.
Here's a news flash: the officiating in the NFL continues to be an issue. I know, I know. You're shocked. Me too.
OK, not really. Sunday's game in Cleveland -- and I only bring that one up because I watched it -- contained a number of "huh?" calls, including an early pass interference penalty on Chris Westry that sure didn't look anything like actual pass interference.
And speaking of pass interference, the Tampa Bay Bucs got away with one late in regulation on Sunday. That call might have prevented the Bills from winning the game outright and could, if things shake out on the bad end for Buffalo over the next few weeks, mean the difference between making the playoffs or not for Josh Allen and Company.
Oh, and how about this one? After the game on Sunday, veteran NFL referee Terry McAulay pointed out that the Ravens actually employed an illegal formation on their successful onside kick late in the game. The guys in the stadium, though, didn't catch it. And the Ravens nearly pulled off a miracle comeback in Cleveland.
It's one thing to "miss" a pass interference call. There's clutching and grabbing -- by both players -- on every ball that goes in the air. The game happens so quickly and your vantage point can often change in a split second. Those kinds of calls can be missed.
But how did the officials in the stadium not see the Ravens were in an illegal formation before Justin Tucker's kick? That's the one that's maddening. (And I'm saying that as a Ravens fan, of course. It's still maddening, because we all know that this Sunday in Baltimore the officials could miss the exact same call and the Packers could benefit from it and, this time, kick a field goal to beat the Ravens.)
Here's the most obvious solution to this whole thing: Sit someone upstairs, by themselves, and send every "contact" penalty up to their booth for an immediate review. They have a pre-determined amount of time to send a change back to the field. I'll make this up: It's 35 seconds.
If, any 35 seconds, the "eye-in-the-sky" can't change the call or doesn't feel he (she) sees enough to make the change, the call on the field stands and the game rolls on. It's 35 seconds. No TV commercials allowed or needed. Just take a quick look and keep on moving.
The Westry interference call from Sunday would have likely been overturned immediately by someone watching from the booth. It was pretty much that easy to see.
We used the term "contact penalty" just to give the whole thing some definition. In other words, illegal shifts and illegal formations wouldn't be thrown to the booth. Neither would offsides. Those, you assume, can be handled with ease on the field, although the officials in charge on Sunday missed that Ravens illegal formation on the onside kick, so there's that.
This all, of course, harkens back to the Rams/Saints playoff game a few years back when the Rams made the Super Bowl because of a blown pass interference call late in the game. A quick booth review there and New Orleans would have played New England instead of Los Angeles playing New England.
There's too much at stake these days to have games decided by missed obvious calls. Having someone sit upstairs and sift through the egregious errors isn't any more of a dumb idea than is playing 17 games, by the way. It can be done efficiently and correctly if you have an ex-official up there who quickly looks at it and says, "Good call, move on" or "You missed that one, guys. Reverse it."
Oh, and one other reason why getting the calls right matters now...
Everyone in America (practically) can not only wager on every game, they can now wager on just about every play and every prop bet you can imagine.
When money is rolling in on every play, you're best served to make sure every play is correctly called.
Anyone else excited to watch Tiger Woods play this weekend? I know I am, and not "just because" he's Tiger Woods, but more because it will give us our first glimpse at what lies ahead in 2022 for the 15-time major champion.
Can he play all 36 holes "comfortably" this weekend? Sure, he gets to ride in a golf cart, which makes things dramatically easier for his ailing right leg, but Tiger will still have to hit shots and put "game pressure" on his body that he hasn't done since last February.
If Tiger gets through the Father-Son tournament in good shape, when might we see his next tournament? He's routinely started his playing season at Torrey Pines every year (late January) but that seems unlikely in 2022. His foundation runs the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles in February. Might that be a better spot?
It seems, to me at least, like we probably won't see Tiger until March, perhaps at The Players, as a lead-up to playing the Masters in April.
One thing for certain: The golf world is excited to see him back this weekend and so, too, are the TV folks. Never before has the Father-Son event been this anticipated.
u.s. men's soccer stock report
This week was a mixed bag for USMNT players with their clubs. Several of the star US players saw limited action due to injuries and coaching decisions. Meanwhile, a few young players delivered performances that could earn them bigger roles going forward. In the US, two USMNT backups were crucial in helping NYCFC to lift the MLS Cup.
Stock Up --
The MLS season concluded in Portland on Saturday with New York City FC winning in a dramatic shootout to claim the Championship. James Sands and goalie Sean Johnson both came up big for the winners, helping New York take a 1-0 lead into the final seconds before Portland pulled out a last second game tying goal.
After two scoreless overtime periods, Johnson came up with several key saves to give NYCFC a 4-2 penalty shootout win. Johnson was named MLS Cup MVP to cap off a strong year for the 32 year old keeper. His standout season has made a strong case for him to be the third keeper for the US behind Zack Steffen and Matt Turner.
In Germany, Chris Richards was back in the Hoffenheim starting lineup after his standout performance last week. He again proved key in a 2-1 win over Freiburg that moved Hoffenheim into the Champions League places in the Bundesliga. Richards was solid defensively but also important to the Hoffenheim attack. The young American hit a precise defense-splitting pass to initiate the sequence that ended in Hoffenheim's first goal. Then he came up with the decisive play of the game, heading home a corner kick in the dying seconds of injury time to give Hoffenheim a big 2-1 victory. With his play the last two weeks Richards has earned back his starting role for his club and may be quickly moving up the pecking order for US center backs.
Nearby in Austria, it was Brenden Aaronson who had a big week for Salzburg. The New Jersey native was instrumental in Salzburg's historic 1-0 Champions League win over Sevilla, which put them into the knockout round. They became the first Austrian team to progress that far in the Champions League since 1990. Aaronson showed good awareness of space and accurate passing in the game, along with his standard aggressive defensive pressing. He made a nice turn and pass to the wing from central midfield to help set up the game's only goal.
He then delivered another standout performance in Salzburg's weekend 5-0 win in the Austrian Bundesliga. In that match, Aaronson was one of the attacking hubs, dishing out six key passes, creating seven chances and getting an assist on one of the goals. This has been a breakout year for Aaronson in Europe and he will now get to lead Salzburg against Bayern Munich in the Champions League knockout round. If he continues to play at this level, it won't be long before teams like Bayern are calling Salzburg to inquire for his services.
Earlier in the week, Zack Steffen got a rare start for Manchester City in their 2-1 Champions League loss to RB Leipzig. Man City had already secured the top spot in the group so they rested several key players. The scoreline could have been worse if it weren't for Steffen, who came up with three or four good saves and could not have done much about either goal.
In Italy, Gianluca Busio started and produced a solid performance in an upset 1-1 draw with Juventus. Busio's defensive work especially stood out, with him winning 8 of his 11 duels and picking up 9 ball recoveries. This is the aspect of his game the young midfielder needs to sharpen to be an asset for the US, so this was a promising performance against a top European team.
In Belgium, Mark McKenzie played well as a starter in both Europa League and Belgian League games for Genk this week. After being stuck on the bench for much of the season, it seems McKenzie is starting to earn the trust of his coach.
Nicholas Gioacchini has been in a similar situation since moving to Montpellier in the French Ligue 1. This weekend he came up with a big performance as a substitute, delivering a highlight assist in a 4-0 win over Brest. He has been productive recently as a sub and this should help him earn more time going forward.
Stock Down --
It wasn't all positive this week for Americans abroad. After seeming to have bounced back from an early season slump, John Brooks appears to have lost his starting spot for Wolfsburg after a couple more poor performances. There are also reports that he may have a strained relationship with his new coach and could be on the move in January. Perhaps this would be best for Brooks in the context of the US team. A reset with a new club may give him the chance he needs to regain his form as one of the top American defenders.
Stock Even --
There were more concerns around several other stars of the USMNT. There isn't any question of the importance to the US team for these players, as they are all vital for qualifying, but it is crucial they keep healthy and in top form.
Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna, and Tim Weah all missed action this week due to injuries. McKennie seems to be the least severe, with his return expected in the next week or so. Reyna has returned to training for Borussia Dortmund but has still not been included in a game day roster. Weah had been on fire for both club and country before getting injured in practice last week and he looks like he'll be out until at least early January.
A couple other US stars seem to have some work to do to get back in the good graces of their club coaches. Christian Pulisic only saw 30 minutes as a sub off the bench in Chelsea's two games this week. He was effective in his limited time, producing a nice assist in a 3-3 draw with Zenit St. Petersburg in the Champions League. However, he was left on the bench for Chelsea's 3-2 win over Leeds this weekend. Chelsea has an incredible depth of talent, so Pulisic will need to continue to impress both in training and his limited game time to get on the field more. At least he can't get injured if he's not playing.
After American coach Jesse Marsch was replaced as RB Leipzig head man, Tyler Adams has seen his role reduced. He was used as a second half substitute in Leipzig's 2-1 win over Man City and again in their 4-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach. It is a small sample size, so it may just be due to those specific matchups, but new coach Domenico Tedesco is putting a greater emphasis on ball possession, which may favor some of Leipzig's more technical midfielders over Adams.
#dmd comments
| Monday December 13, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2668 |
still in control...somehow
Never before has a team fighting for their playoff lives lost a football game in December and felt good about it...but the Ravens came awfully close to that feeling yesterday after the 24-22 loss in Cleveland.
For starters, John Harbaugh's team showed grit and heart in coming back from a 24-3 first half deficit. The Browns showed what they always show -- the inability to get out of their own way, narrowly winning the game after their offense fizzled and their defense hung on for dear life.
And when San Francisco pulled off an overtime win at Cincinnati a few hours later, the Ravens were still in first place in the AFC North and well in control of their own playoff destiny despite falling to 8-5 and losing Lamar Jackson to an ankle injury.
If you watched the game as a Ravens fan yesterday and weren't proud of the way they competed in the face of adversity, you probably shouldn't watch them play any longer. You've lost your way...
Let's get the playoff stuff out of the way first.
The Ravens are 8-5 with four games remaining, three of which will come at home. Next Sunday they host Green Bay, the following Sunday they're at Cincinnati, and then they end the season with home games against the Rams and Steelers. Here's the scenario: Ravens win 2 of those 4 and they'll win the AFC North at 10-7. Which two? Well, that's anyone's guess. But if they can finish at 10-7, that should be good enough.
The Bengals are at 7-6. Next Sunday they're at Denver, a team fighting for their own playoff lives at 7-6. Then they host the Ravens and Chiefs. Cincinnati's final game of the season is on the road at Cleveland. They'll be hard pressed to get to 10-7, but if they do and if one of their last three wins is over Baltimore, they'd win the tiebreaker if the Ravens also finish at 10-7.
Cleveland is also 7-6. They host the reeling Raiders next Sunday, then visit the Packers and Steelers before ending the season at home vs. the Bengals. They, too, have their work cut out for them in an effort to reach that magical 10-win mark.
Interesting note: Because they play one another in the season finale, the Bengals and Browns can not both finish at 11-6. Barring a tie by each team, one of those two teams is going to finish with 7 losses at a minimum.
Pittsburgh sits at 6-6-1 and their road is tough down the stretch. They have the Titans at home, the Chiefs on the road, the Browns in Pittsburgh and the Ravens in Baltimore. Best case for them? 3 wins and 1 loss, which leaves them at 9-7-1. They're not going 4-0 to finish 10-6-1. Not happening.
The Ravens are in the catbird seat from a schedule standpoint. They just have to get to 10 wins at the very least and they should be fine. It seems very unlikely that the Browns and Bengals will both go 3-1 down the stretch. Not the way they've both been playing, anyway.
Now, back to yesterday's game.
Major props to Tyler Huntley, who stepped in for Lamar Jackson and acquitted himself well for the most part. Sure, he lost two fumbles , one of which negated a scoring drive in the third quarter, but Huntley looked -- can we say it? -- like a replica-Lamar with some of his shake and bake moves and ability to convert on third down with his arm and his legs.
The Ravens would obviously like to have Lamar back for this Sunday's home showdown with the Packers, particularly after watching the way Justin Fields and the lousy Bears offense chopped up the Packers defense last night, but if Lamar can't go, Huntley will step in and do just fine.
The very first call into the FM station this morning (I was taking my son to swim practice at 6:00 am for those wondering why I would be listening at that hour) was from someone essentially saying the Ravens should save the $40 million a year they're going to shell out for Lamar and just give Huntley the starting quarterback job.
In no way am I agreeing with that, but I will say this: If Lamar is out for a couple of weeks and if Huntley leads the Ravens to a few wins and a playoff spot and/or the AFC North title, that issue will fester in Baltimore with a certain segment of the fan base. There will be people who say, "Just let Lamar walk and give Huntley the gig. They're pretty much the same quarterback." You just know that's coming down the road if Huntley shines while (if) Lamar is out of action.
Big credit goes to the Baltimore defense, who stepped up in the second half and kept the game close long enough for the Browns to become the Browns again. Cleveland's vaunted running game was again held in check by Baltimore, as the Browns accumulated just 100 yards on the ground.
And two weeks after torching the Baltimore secondary, wide receiver Jarvis Landry was largely held in check, with 5 catches for 41 yards, plus a touchdown.
The Cleveland offense generated only 290 yards of offense (190 passing, 100 rushing) and, yet, hung on to win. The Ravens defense did themselves proud in the second half, though. They deserved a better fate.
Rashod Bateman had his best day as a professional with 7 catches for 103 yards and was within a whisker of breaking the game's final throw on 4th and 16 for a long gain or a touchdown. But Denzel Ward sniffed out the throw after Cleveland applied pressure on Huntley and took Bateman down just before he could hit full stride with the ball. If Bateman could have snuck past Ward, he had clear sailing.
For the Ravens to successfully navigate their way through the last four games and make the playoffs, Bateman will need to be a central figure in the team's offensive game plan. Hollywood Brown is reliable enough, but that's about it. Sammy Watkins is seemingly always battling some kind of injury, Miles Boykin no longer plays and the team doesn't throw the ball to Devin Duvernay for some weird reason. So Bateman has to shine now, which he can if the balls comes his way.
Speaking of Bateman and Andrews, that brings us to offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The talking heads in town and the folks on Twitter will continue to roast Roman for his play calling, but here's the thing: Where is the balance for Roman's ability to get Andrews the ball game-in and game-out? Where's the positive commentary about the way Bateman has started to emerge as a big time passing threat?
I'm not a huge Roman fan, personally, but I see him for what he is and what he has always been: A coordinator who generally has a top 5 rushing offense and a bottom 5 passing offense. This year, though, it's been different, as the Ravens were 12th in passing heading into yesterday's game in Cleveland. Roman isn't going to morph into something he's not. He's a "run first" guy who uses the ground game to set up the throw. He gets beat on in town just like every other offensive coordinator who has been in Baltimore and some of that is understandable, but the narrative that he's responsible every time the Ravens lose or don't complete a pass or don't pick up a first down on 3rd and 12 is laughable.
There was a lot of bellyaching and whining on Twitter when the Ravens went for two points after a touchdown cut the score from 24-9 to 24-15 in the 4th quarter. But there's no question about this: If your plan was to try and win the game with two possessions, going for two after the first touchdown was absolutely the right call from Harbaugh and his analytics staff in the press box.
I totally understand that media/radio types need to create a "hot take" for Monday and coach bashing is definitely the easiest way to go about it, but when you're trailing by 15 points and you'd like to win the game in two possessions, you go for two points when you score the first touchdown. That's not football. That's actually called "math".
The problem in Baltimore, as I see it, is some media people have drawn their personal line in the sand with regard to Harbaugh, Roman, Lamar, etc. and they aren't in a position to change directions -- even when one, two, or all three of those guys are in the right. So it's always just bash, bash, bash. It's old. And tiring. But, frankly, very predictable.
As it turned out, the Ravens failed to get that first two point conversion and trailed by nine points. A few minutes later they then scored a TD and kicked the extra point to only trail by two, 24-22.
And then they got the ball back after the onside kick and had a chance to move into field goal position and win the game.
It's interesting to hear/read people say, "You kick the extra point first...then you know what you need to do for the rest of the game."
Maybe I'm wrong, but no matter what you do on the first touchdown, you "know what you need to do for the rest of the game". If you get the two point conversion, you know you still need a touchdown and an extra point to tie or another two point conversion to win.
If you kick the extra point first to make it 24-16, you know you still need a touchdown and a two point conversion to tie the game.
If you go for two after the first TD and don't get it, you now know it's going to require more than one more possession to win the game, unless you score a defensive touchdown.
This stuff about "knowing how to play the rest of the game" is total #clownshoes stuff. You "know what you need to do for the rest of the game" no matter what happens. Whether you can actually pull it off is a whole other story.
In the end, here's the whole situation in a nutshell.
Are you playing to win or playing to tie on your last two possessions? Either way, you need at least one two-pointer to get 15 points and two to get 16 points.
Going for two points was the right call, no matter what the gabbers on TV, radio and the newspaper say.
I assume "Stats Nerd" will have an opinion or two on the whole thing later this week. I look forward to seeing what he thinks about it.
This isn't as dire as everyone paints it out to be. The Ravens are the only AFC North team with 8 wins and they're the only AFC North team with 3 home games remaining, too.
As crazy as it sounds for a team with half of their good players out for the season and a hobbling starting quarterback, the Ravens are still in the driver's seat in the division. And if they continue to play with the kind of heart they displayed in Cleveland yesterday, they'll figure out a way to scratch and claw their way to two or three wins and wind up claiming the AFC North title.
And don't forget this little nugget. The Ravens are in the same division as the Browns, Bengals and Steelers. Heck 9-8 might be good enough to win the division, truth be told. The Bengals and Browns are "always gonna Bengals and Browns" at the worst moment and the Steelers are cooked at 6-6-1.
The Ravens just need to hold serve at home and they'll be fine. And if they're going to lose one, dropping the Green Bay game wouldn't be all that crushing. Losing to a NFC team doesn't hurt that much and -- get ready for it -- losing the first one lets them know what they need to do for the rest of the season.
Too soon for snark after a tough loss like that one yesterday?
around the nfl in 2 minutes and 6 seconds
Titans 20 - Jaguars 0 -- You know there wasn't much to this game when the biggest story out of Nashville was the perfunctory post-game handshake at midfield between Mike Vrabel and Urban Meyer. Meyer's team just got punched in the mouth, 20-0, and people thought he should have stood there at midfield and bro-hugged Vrabel. Anyway, the Titans are quietly 9-4 and rolling in the direction of the AFC South crown since they own the tiebreaker over the Colts (7-6).
Chiefs 48 - Raiders 9 -- Kansas City is really starting to flex their muscles now and the Raiders look like they've thrown in the towel. Don't look now, but K.C.'s defense has given up 9 points in three straight games and -- here's a stat -- they've allowed a grand total of 65 points during their current 6 game winning streak.
Saints 30 - Jets 9 -- The Saints are 6-7 and actually have a winning road record (4-3) believe it or not. The Jets? Ummm, yeah, they're not very good. New Orleans still has an outside shot at the post-season; at Tampa Bay, home vs. Miami and Carolina and at Atlanta. They could finish 9-8, which might get them in somehow.
Cowboys 27 - Washington 20 -- The story of this game? Dallas flew their own heated benches in -- complete with the Cowboys logo -- because the Seahawks told them the benches the Washington team provided didn't heat up properly. Dallas is now 9-4 and on the verge of the NFC East title. Washington (6-7) can still make the post-season, believe it or not. They're at Philly, at Dallas, home vs. the Eagles and at the Giants. Win 3 of those 4 and they might make the playoffs. I don't see it happening, but you never know.
Falcons 29 - Panthers 21 -- I feel like I say this about every team in the NFC except the Lions and Bears. "The Falcons can still make the playoffs." They're 6-7 and somehow they're 5-2 on the road this season. They finish the season at San Francisco, home vs. Detroit, at Buffalo and home vs. the Saints. Like Washington, if they get to 9-8, they might make the post-season.
Seahawks 33 - Texans 13 -- I have no idea what to say about this game. Despite being 2-11, he Texans still have the best helmets in the league. So there's that, I guess.
Broncos 38 - Lions 10 -- Denver has had a crazy season. Started 3-0, dropped 4 straight, and now they're 7-6 and in the playoff hunt with four games left. Home vs. Cincy, at Raiders, at Chargers, home vs. Kansas City. If they're legit, they'll figure out a way to 3 of those 4 and make the playoffs. Even if they win two and finish 9-8, they could probably squeeze in somehow. My guess? They win 2 but don't make it due to tiebreakers.
Chargers 37 - Giants 21 -- Los Angeles hosts Kansas City this Thursday night with first place on the line in the AFC West. After that, they finish with wins over Houston, Denver and the Raiders. Los Angeles could finish at 12-5 if they get past the Chiefs this week. If not, they'll probably go 11-6 and easily make the playoffs. The Chargers could be a tough out in the post-season if their defense has a good couple of weeks.
49'ers 26 - Bengals 23 OT -- So this was weird. The Bengals actually scored first in OT on a field goal and still didn't win, as the 49'ers went right down the field and scored a TD on their first possession to win the game and stay alive in the NFC playoff race at 7-6. The Bengals just can't win at home in 2022; they're now 3-4 in Cincinnati.
Buccaneers 33 - Bills 27 OT -- After Buffalo tied it late at 27-27, Tom Brady hit -- can't even believe I'm writing this -- Breshad Perriman on a 55-yard TD throw in overtime to give Tampa Bay the win at home. The Bills are now 7-6 and they have the Panthers at home, at New England, home vs. Atlanta and home vs. the Jets. They should finish 11-6 and make the playoffs with ease.
Packers 45 - Bears 30 -- Chicago led 10-0 and 24-14 at one point and then Aaron Rodgers got interested and that was the end of Chicago's upset dream. I'm worried about next Sunday in Baltimore. The Packers might throw a 40-burger on the Ravens.
terps get manning his first win at maryland
Yesterday, both Maryland and Florida unexpectedly lit up the scoreboard from long range. But the Terps were able to make a stop with one second left in the game, and walked away with a 70-68 win over a Gator team that was ranked #20 in the country.
Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell led the Terrapins with 19 points each, followed by Donta Scott with 12. Those three scored the last 14 points for Maryland, with Scott scoring just outside of the the paint with 16 seconds left in the game to provide the winning two-point margin.
The Terps shot 49% from the floor and 61.5% from the three-point line, helping to offset their 15 turnovers and 15-8 deficit on the offensive glass. Florida, also, put up some gaudy three-point numbers (11-27, 41%), but were handcuffed by the foul trouble of their two most dynamic players. Gator leading scorer, Colin Castleton, fouled out having only tallied 9 points while playing just 7 minutes in the first half and a very tentative 19 minutes in the second. Anthony Duruji picked up two quick fouls to start the game and saw just 16 minutes of game time.
Without those two protecting the rim on defense and scoring inside on offense, the Terrapins were able to win the points-in-the-paint battle, 28-18. The same three that led the Terps in scoring, also provided the Gators with ample scoring chances by turning the ball over 11 times collectively. Russell committed five miscues while Ayala and Scott each had 3.
At halftime, the score was appropriately tied at 33 all. The teams looked equally bad. Maryland had 11 first half turnovers, but stayed in the game by shooting 50% from both the floor and the three-point line. Perhaps playing an even larger role in the halftime score was the foul situation on Florida's two starting big men. Castleton only logged 7 first half minutes and Duruji played just 6. Each player had picked up 2 quick fouls and as a result, were benched for most of the half.
Donta Scoot struggled early, with 2 of 6 shooting and 3 turnovers. He also gave up numerous three pointers by not closing out fast enough after giving his assignment too much room on the three-point line.
The game got off to a rough start for both teams. At the 11:54 media timeout, the Terps led 13-10. Maryland had accumulated 5 turnovers against just 4 made baskets. The Gators made sure the first 8 minutes were low scoring by making just 1 of 7 three pointers and only 4 of 12 shots overall. Castleton had two buckets, both on low post moves as the Terps elected to not double team him.
Maryland's shooting allowed them to maintain a slight lead, 20-21 at the next media timeout. The Terps had made 60% of their shots from the floor and were 3 of 4 from beyond the arc. They might have had a bigger lead, but the sloppy turnover count had reached 9 already.
Florida grabbed an early 4-point second half lead, but that was quickly erased by threes from Russell and Ayala. An Ayala layup then pushed the Terp lead to 4 with 15:02 left in the game.
The Terps lead would grow to 7 after Russel hit another three, but Tyree Appleby hit 2 three-pointers in the space of 8 seconds and just that fast, the two teams were only separated by just 1 point. There was just 5:02 left when Ayala hit the first of two back-to-back driving layups (he was fouled on the second and converted the foul shot) to give Maryland some breathing room, 64-58, with 3:46 left to play.
Florida was not finished fighting, and looked to have gained some massive momentum when Appleby hit another three, this time returning the Gators to the lead, 66-65 with 1:14 left. In, perhaps the game's biggest play, Russell got to the rim for an old fashioned three-point play. The Terps now led 68-66 with under 1 minute remaining.
Duruji got into the paint for an easy bucket, tying the game and setting up Maryland's final possession. Ayala would feed Scott on the right side about 2 steps outside of the paint halfway between the foul line and the base line. Scott spun to his right and put up a very awkward shot that banked home giving Maryland the winning margin of 70-68. A desperation 3 by Appleby missed badly and Maryland had the win.
Maryland finally received some stellar play from Ayala during the final minutes of a close game Scott chipped in also, and Russell had a monster second half with 15 points. I'm sure that interim coach, Danny Manning, was frustrated watching his team fail to close out on Florida three-point shooters.
Twice, Maryland defenders jumped toward a Gator three-point shooter, only to commit a foul that would send a Terp opponent to the line for 3 shots. That area of their defense needs some serious attention.
In my opinion, Florida is over-ranked at #20. I can all but guarantee they won't have such a lofty position when March rolls around. But take nothing away from Maryland, they shot lights out, got Florida in foul trouble, and picked up a nice non-conference win.
The Terrapins will next play a couple of "pay" games before returning to conference play at Iowa on January 3rd.
 | #DMD GAME DAY | |
 | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM EST FirstEnergy Stadium Spread: Browns (-3.0) |  |
getting on track in cleveland
The Ravens need this one today.
In the worst way.
The problem? Cleveland also needs it. In fact, they need today's 1 pm game worse than Baltimore given their 6-6 record and remaining schedule.
Everyone in the AFC North has one goal: Get to 11 wins. Not only will that virtually guarantee a playoff spot, it might also snag you the AFC North division title. Failing that, goal "B" is to finish at 10-7 and let the tiebreakers hopefully play out in your favor.
With their current 6-6 record, that means -- Flyers fans, pay attention here, it gets complicated for you -- the Browns can't lose another game if they want to finish 11-6.
Well, they're not finishing 11-6. Not with their remaining schedule, that is.
So, 10-7 is likely the best Cleveland can finish, which means their play in the conference and the division is of the utmost importance. Here's who they play over the last five games.
vs. Baltimore
vs. Las Vegas
at Green Bay
at Pittsburgh
vs. Cincinnati
Daunting, huh? Truth of the matter is, Cleveland could lose all of their remaining games. They're probably not going to do that, but they've been very up and down all year (hence the 6-6 record) and once they reach 8 losses, they'll probably pack it in.
So, for the Browns, today's game is really critical in their quest to finish with 11 or 10 wins.
Editor's note: Because the goofy owners approved a ridiculous 17-game schedule, there's no history to go by with regard to teams finishing 9-8 and whether that's playoff viable or not. Cleveland -- or anyone else -- could finish 9-8 and squeeze in, somehow, although that seems unlikely.
The 8-4 Ravens are in much better shape, record wise, than the Browns, but certainly not in better shape roster wise. Today begins the "life after Marlon" era for Wink Martindale's defense, who more than held their own against Baker and the vaunted Cleveland running game two weeks ago in Charm City. For some reason, the Browns didn't run much in that 16-10 Baltimore win. Today figures to feature a different game plan from Cleveland. Expect them to run the ball a lot.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have recent offensive issues of their own to solve this afternoon. Greg Roman's unit has reached 20 points or more just once in their last 6 games and the last four games (2-2 record) have been particularly troubling. Baltimore's offense was lousy in Chicago, worse in Miami, pedestrian vs. Cleveland and limited in Pittsburgh. It all adds up to four games of benign production at a time when points and offense are critical.
The spotlight today from an offensive standpoint will shine brightly on the quarterback, of course. Lamar Jackson's play has been shockingly uneven over the last month, including a 4-interception game vs. the Browns and a sketchy outing in Pittsburgh last Sunday. Jackson's star hasn't fallen in Baltimore, but if fan base reaction means anything, the outcry for better play from the quarterback has been louder this week than perhaps any other time in his four seasons in purple.
How Roman decides to attack the Cleveland defense will be very important today. The Browns boast one of the game's premier pass rushers in the entire league in Myles Garrett. Last Sunday in Pittsburgh, T.J. Watt terrorized both the offensive line and Lamar throughout the afternoon. Whatever plan Roman had for Watt a week ago didn't work out too well. Let's hope he comes up with something more effective today to offset Garrett, who was a nemesis in Baltimore two weeks ago.
The Ravens did get a bit of good news on Friday when the Browns announced that starting cornerback Greg Newsome II suffered a concussion in practice and will not be available for today's game. That should give Lamar, Roman and the team's receiving corps a shot in the arm. Getting Hollywood, Bateman and Duvernay into the mix seems even more reasonable now that Newsome's out of the lineup.
This one figures to be tight. Big plays, penalties, dropped passes, 4th down conversions, missed and made field goals. They all figure to be part of the narrative this afternoon. The team making the least amount of mistakes figures to come out on top. Both teams have a lot on the line, although for the Browns it's almost a must win situation.
Three keys for the Ravens --
1. Mistake free from Lamar -- Turnovers happen. One isn't a big issue. But two or three (or more) turnovers from the quarterback makes it hard to win. Somehow, when Lamar turned it over 4 times at home vs. the Browns, the Ravens still did enough to gain the victory. But there's more to it than just today's game. Lamar has to get back to playing error free football, or at the very least improving the way he protects the ball. Some picks -- like a couple in the Cleveland game -- happen occasionally because the ball bounces off a receiver's hands or something like that. Those can't always be avoided by the quarterback. But Lamar needs to bounce back today with a good game and he really needs to limit the turnovers to a maximum of one.
2. Get the receivers involved...a lot more -- In order for the Baltimore offense to percolate today, they need to do more than throw the ball to Mark Andrews 12 times. This a day, with the Cleveland secondary hurting, where Greg Roman should be calling the number of the receivers early and often. Get a half-dozen targets or more on the books for Brown, Watkins, Duvernay and Bateman. Jackson has his favorite, of course, which is Andrews, but he really needs to involve the receivers today.
3. Limit Landry and you're golden -- There's no way the Browns win today if Jarvis Landry can be held in check by the Baltimore defense. He went for over 100 yards in Baltimore two weeks ago. If he winds up over the century mark today, the Ravens could be in trouble. Whatever scheme Wink needs to create to put a blanket over Landry is what he needs to do. Sure, Cleveland's running attack is very solid, but the Ravens put the clamps on them two weeks ago and it seems likely they'll do the same thing this afternoon. Holding the Browns to less than 140 yards rushing and Landry under 75 yards receiving and there's a "W" in the books for John Harbaugh's team.
how drew sees today's game
The Browns take advantage of an early Mayfield to Landry big play to move into Baltimore territory, but the drive fizzles on the Ravens 21 yard line and the ensuing field goal gives the Browns a 3-0 first quarter lead.
After two drives that do very little, Lamar finally gets things and the Ravens march down to the Cleveland five-yard line as the opening period ends. On the first play of the 2nd quarter, Lamar dinks a short pass to Mark Andrews for a touchdown and a Tucker PAT puts the Ravens up 7-3.
The Browns move down the field quickly, but Mayfield's pass from the Baltimore 18 yard line is batted up in the air by Calais Campbell and intercepted by Patrick Queen. Six plays later, Jackson hits Hollywood Brown in the end zone for a 29 yard TD throw and Tucker connects to make it 14-3.
On the final series of the first half, the Browns get the ball to the Baltimore 24 but have to settle for a field goal. The Ravens lead 14-6 at the half.
Midway through the 3rd quarter, the Browns recover a Lamar fumble at midfield and Nick Chubb eventually scoots in from 16 yards out to make it 14-12. The two point conversion fails, though.
The following series is all Lamar, as he runs for 34 yards on 4 carries and throws a 20 yard TD to Mark Andrews to make it 20-12. Tucker's PAT is, believe it or not, no good.
Cleveland and Baltimore exchange punts and the Browns get the ball back with 4:30 left in the game. Mayfield directs them downfield and finds Landry in the end zone from 11 yards out. Baker then hits Kareem Hunt in the end zone for the two point conversion and it's 20-20 with 2:06 remaining.
With first place on the line (depending on the Bengals outcome later in the day), Lamar does fine work on the last series of regulation, moving the Ravens into Cleveland territory. On 3rd and 7 with 1:01 remaining, Jackson scampers away from Garrett and picks up 11 yards. Two plays later, he finds Hollywood Brown over the middle and the Ravens are in business at the Cleveland 25 yard line.
A false start penalty moves the ball back to the 30. Justin Tucker comes on with eight seconds remaining and atones for the earlier PAT miss by hitting the game-winning field goal from 47 yards out as the Ravens improve to 9-4 with a thrilling 23-20 win over Cleveland.
it's "fire pit weekend"
So the builder has done a great job on the beach house, but this week he threw one more option at us just as he was putting the finishing touches on everything.
"Do you want a big fire pit out back?" he asked.
"Sure!" I replied. "How much we talking?"
"Everything in...about $2,500."
So, we're now adding a fire pit to the beach house. I mean, what's another $2,500, right? Just need another four or five win weekend, like we've produced regularly this season, and we're golden.
With that...it's time to go 5-0 with what we think will be a clean-up weekend for #DMD.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE (-8.5) -- The Titans can't afford any slip-ups, particularly with these automatic-win kind of games against the likes of Jacksonville and Houston. The Jaguars have nothing at all to play for. Tennessee needs it and they get it. We'll take the Titans here in a big way, as they cover the 8.5 in a 33-13 win.
SEATTLE AT HOUSTON (+8.5) -- We're going the other way with this one. Seattle might win, but they're not winning by nine points. And we wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Texans pull off the upset here. Just for kicks, we'll even call like it that. We're excited to grab Houston plus 8.5 and we like them to win outright 24-21.
DETROIT AT DENVER (-10.5) -- OK, so the Lions got their win last week. Denver is somehow still alive in the playoff race at 6-6, but they can't afford a mistake today against a lousy Detroit team. 10.5 points is a lot to give, but we don't see the Lions scoring much out there in the Mile High City. We'll take Denver and give the 10.5 in a 27-10 win over the Lions.
N.Y. GIANTS AT L.A. CHARGERS (-10.0) -- We don't do this much, but this is a 5-star play for us this afternoon. We triple-love this game. Maybe even quadruple-love it. The Chargers will blow New York out, winning by 10 points in each half. Los Angeles covers the 10 points in a 37-16 win over the Giants.
BUFFALO AT TAMPA BAY (-3.5) -- Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay. That's it. That's the story. Buffalo hasn't thawed out from Monday's loss to the Patriots and Brady will light up their secondary this afternoon. We love the Bucs today in a big way, as Tom Brady and Company cover the 3.5 and deal Buffalo's AFC East hopes a big blow in a 27-20 win.
BEST BET OF THE DAY -- It's the Chargers, obviously. They're gonna smash the Giants out in Los Angeles.
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 3-2
OVERALL RECORD THIS SEASON: 33-32
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 7-6
terps try to get right in new york
I'm now well into my third game-tape of the Florida Gators basketball team (Maryland's opponent today at 4:30 pm in Brooklyn NY) and I still can't decipher who they are or what they do best.
They beat Cal, Ohio State and Florida State, but recently lost to Texas Southern. The Gators did have foul trouble and shot poorly against a Texas Southern team that has quality transfers and is far better than you might expect (keep them in mind when you fill out your brackets in March), but it's still a loss at home against what was on 0-7 Texas Southern team.
I expect the Gators to use defensive pressure, all over the court, in an attempt to cover up their offensive deficiencies as well as their average rebounding ability. They currently rank 12th in rebounds in the SEC and shoot a lowly 29% from the three-point line. They have three guys who shoot better than 50 from the field, but the ineptitude of the rest of the squad drags the team shooting percentage down to 43%.
Florida will get steals (#2 in the SEC) and block shots (4th) but, offensively, they are far too reliant on their 6"11' center Colin Castleton. The big man who couldn't get on the floor as a member of the Michigan Wolverines has prospered in Gainesville. Last year he was a second team All SEC selection and this year he may improve upon that, as his 16 points and 9.3 rebounds a game indicate.
Castleton is nifty around the basket and shoots 15-footers from the floor better than he shoots foul shots. He's 3rd in the SEC in rebounds per game, 2nd in blocks, and 4th in shooting percentage. If Maryland allows him free reign with his back to the basket, he'll torch whatever Terp defender tries to check him. The good news is that doubling down rarely hurts you because Florida shoots poorly from the outside. Interim coach, Danny Manning, must have his Terrapins double down on Castleton every chance they can.
The Gators have three additional double-digit scorers, but it's their 6'7" forward, Anthony Duruji, that catches my eye the most. He's a high flyer with a great shooting percentage, but on this Florida team he's only 6th in field goal attempts. If Maryland can contain him, and limit Castleton, they can win this game.
Brandon McKissic (6'3" transfer guard), Polyandrous Fleming Jr (6'5" transfer), and Myreon Jones (an All Big Ten Penn State transfer) are all capable and athletic, but don't really separate themselves from their competition. Jones is currently hitting 33% of his threes, and is the only moderate threat from long range on this Gator squad.
The oddsmakers have installed Florida as a five-point favorite. I think that gives the Gators too much credit, or perhaps Vegas thinks the bettors have soured on Maryland and it takes five points to get someone to take action on that side.
Maryland has managed to be "in" every game this year. In their 5-point loss to George Mason, they trailed by just a single point with under 60 seconds left. In the last minute, Eric Ayala missed a three and a short jumper, while Donta Scott also missed a three.
In the 8-point loss to Louisville, the Terps trailed by just one at the 3:29 mark of the second half. Down the stretch Scott went 0-3, Ayala didn't take a shot, and Louisville cruised to an eight-point win. The pattern continued in their loss to Virginia Tech. The Terps trailed by one with 5:37 left in the game. This time Scott made a few late-game shots, but Ayala again failed to score.
Lastly, in their Big Ten opener against Northwestern, a Fatts Russell 3 brought Maryland to within one point with 4:32 remaining. From that point on, Ayala went 0-1 with a turnover and Scott added only one made foul shot in what eventually was a 6-point Terp loss.
It's hard to fathom that a team's leading scorer (Ayala at 13.1 per game) has failed to get a bucket during crunch time in every loss this season. Are teams focusing on him, or for some unknown reason does he disappear? Ayala shot 43% from the field last year. That has dropped to 33% this year. An 83% foul shooter last season, he now stands at 69% for 2021-2022. His steals are down and his turnovers are up. Something is fishy here.
Scott's numbers reflect the same drop off. A solid 50% performer from the field last season, he now connects on just 38% so far this season. His very productive three-point shooting from last year (44%) has crashed to just 28% this season.
With any production from either Ayala or Scott, especially down the stretch in the Terps losses, this season could be a whole lot different. Ayala is shooting 28% in those losses and made only 3 of 21 shots in the Virginia Tech and Northwestern games.
Scott has fared a bit better in those same four losses, but his 13-36 from the field during the last 3 games is not what we expected from him. This needs to, and can, change.
Florida surely has worked on defending back-door cuts and defensive rebounding, two areas where they were destroyed by Texas Southern in the blowout Gator loss. Maryland should still emphasize both of these areas. Maryland will need to protect the ball against the full court pressure that I'm sure Florida will employ. Defensively, the Terrapins MUST double team Castleton, and guard Jones on the outside even if that means giving up a three to someone else.
Offensively, I'd like to see the Terps run more, and they need execute their half-court offense at a much quicker pace. This is a winnable game for the team from College Park. I don't see a huge talent disparity here. In fact, Maryland may have a slight edge.
If Scott and Ayala play up to par, especially late in the game, Maryland can (and will) win this matchup in the Barclays Center. Call me crazy if you will, but I'll take the 5 points here. I promise I'm not being a homer; I just don't trust Florida's starting five talent and their bench won't be much help either. Scoring will be an issue for both sides.
Already in this young season, I've been wrong in certain games about what we can expect from Ayala. This is a chance for him to right his ship. Terps pull the upset and beat #20 ranked Florida, 63-60.
| Saturday December 11, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2666 |
all those questions under the tree
Brad P. asks -- "What do you think the Orioles payroll will be in 2022?"
DF says -- "I have no idea, but it certainly won't be much. I think they have about $35 million on the books right now and they still have to pay Chris Davis $17 million and Alex Cobb $6.5 million. So, I don't know, I'll say their actual 2022 rostered-payroll will be somewhere around $42-$44 million and they'll spend upwards of $65 million on total payroll. Just guesses, but I think they're pretty close."
Lee in Canton -- "Given what you've seen from Tiger and his practice sessions and the videos he has published what do you think his chances are of winning a tournament next year?"
DF says -- "Lots of moving parts to that question and this answer. For starters, hitting range balls is nothing like playing real golf. It's sort of like batting practice at the ballpark before a game. Everyone looks good in the cage because the balls are being thrown flat at 65 mph. I think we'll learn more about his progress next weekend at the Father-Son event. But we also know Tiger wouldn't be out there if he didn't think he was healthy enough to compete. He's not going to tee it up and embarrass himself. And I guess we all know by now never to write him off and say "he can't win" so I won't do that. But I think given his limited schedule and the fact most of the events he'll play will be "premium field" tournaments that it will be hard for him to win."
Matt asks -- "Hey Drew, now that sports wagering is almost legal in Maryland I'm going to try and place a bet on league MVP. Who would you throw your money on right now?"
DF says -- "This is a tough one because I think the last 5-6 games decides it all. Honestly, right now the MVP of the league might be Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis but he won't win it. Without him, though, Indy is a 3 win team. You have to throw Tom Brady in there although I also don't know if he'll win it. Rodgers in Green Bay has to be in the mix. Kyler Murray would have had a shot but they won games without him...he can't be that valuable. When Green Bay lost Rodgers their offense was a joke. If I were putting down my own $100 right now I would go with Rodgers, I think."
Rich asks -- "I saw your Doors video yesterday (Dec. 8 issue of #DMD) and was wondering what you thought of another band that lost their lead singer too early, Lynyrd Skynyrd? I'm a huge fan. Thanks!"
DF says -- "Very underrated band! Certainly one of the most influential bands of my lifetime from a "genre" standpoint. Every Southern rock band aspired to be like Lynyrd Skynyrd. They were really, really, good."
R.C. asks -- "Happy holidays to you and your family, Drew. I just had a quick golf question for a future Q and A column. Now that you've had a few months to digest the U.S. Senior Open experience what would you say was the most memorable part about the whole thing? And was there anything about it you regret now?"
DF says -- "Having my family there to walk along with me and be part of it. I realize it's one of those things you probably can't understand unless it's you, but standing in the 14th fairway and looking over and seeing my wife, son and daughter standing along the ropes was an incredible experience. From a golfing standpoint, the most memorable part was the way we were treated by the USGA. They didn't miss a thing. They took incredibly good care of us all week. And having my lifelong friend there (Serge Hogg) caddying for me was also extremely memorable. No regrets at all. None. Zero."
Marty Prince asks -- "What do you think would be best for Maryland basketball? Hire a proven, veteran coach like Rick Pitino or Bruce Pearl or go after one of the younger guys like Kim English or Juan Dixon?"
DF says -- "Well, I think we're learning more and more about the Maryland fan base as we go along and it stands to reason they want a winner and they want it kind of quickly. And with that, I think the fans also feel like Maryland is "big time enough" to attract one of those veteran coaches. I'm not sure Terps fans would accept English or Juan, although Dixon would have a feather in his cap coming in because of his time at College Park. I'm not a huge fan of either Pitino or Pearl. And I understand Maryland needs someone a little more established than, say, English or Dixon. I think Anthony Grant at Dayton is a really nice go between. That said -- I have a feeling Mike Brey is going to get the job."
Mark B. asks -- "For one of your Q and A segments at The Dish, how about listing your three most under-rated bands or singers? I always enjoyed the under-rated and over-rated segment you used to do on the radio. Thanks Drew and best wishes to you and your family for a joyous Christmas!"
DF says: "Top three underrated bands? Hmmmm. I think Steely Dan was wildly underrated. Their best 16 songs are as good as anyone's best 16 songs. Ever. They were very talented. I think The Goo Goo Dolls were very underrated. I guess I can say "are" underrated since they're actually still making albums and music. And I'll give you someone else that never got the respect I think they were due: INXS. Just like Steely Dan, you take INXS's best 16 songs and you can put them up against anyone."
Craig asks -- "How are you feeling overall about the U.S. soccer team and their World Cup chances?"
DF says -- "As long as none of their big names get hurt playing for their respective club teams between now and January, I feel good! I think they're about 75% of the way to qualifying right now. They still have some work to do and those next three games (home vs. El Salvador, away at Canada and home vs. Honduras) will probably decide the whole thing. If they can get 6 points out of those three they're in good shape. If they get 7 or 9, they're almost a lock at that point. I think the team is still trying to find their profile a bit. But they haven't been completely healthy through the first 8 games, either. Let's see what they do once they have their entire roster available."
Kathy asks -- "Hi Drew, one of your loyal female readers here! If you do a Question and Answer article someday soon can you tell us all what it means in golf when they say a player is "hitting down on the ball."? Thank you from a novice golfer!
DF says -- "They're simply referring to the angle of attack of the club going into the ball at impact. Most people think the club strikes the ball in an upward motion but for nearly every club but the driver, the club is actually moving down into the ball at impact. The best ball strikers are adept at hitting down on the ball."
C.J. asks -- "Are you still sticking with your thought that the Orioles can win 70-plus games next season? We haven't done much this winter."
DF says -- "I did qualify that statement by saying "if they add a few decent pitchers", but, yes, I think 70 wins is easily attainable for a team that had a 19-game and 14-game (I think...) losing streak in 2021. Their offense will be decent enough in 2022. They just need better starting pitching and another decent bullpen arm or two. I think 72-90 is very realistic for them."
Chris K. asks -- If Bruce Springsteen came to your house to play one song in your backyard and he said, "My only condition is it can't be Born To Run", what song would you have him play? Thanks and Merry Christmas to you and your family!"
DF says: "Good question! Even if he *could* play Born To Run I wouldn't choose that song. If Bruce came to my house to play only one song, I'd have him play this one below...
drew and friends with pat skerry
I got the chance to catch up with Pat Skerry yesterday and chat about Towson's early season success on the basketbal court.
As you'll hear in the piece below, Glenn Clark and I will be out at SECU Arena this Tuesday, December 14 collecting coats and winter apparel in advance of our annual trip to Helping Up Mission on December 20. If you have coats or winter apparel you'd like to donate, we'll be at the main gate collecting it on Tuesday starting at 6 pm.
Anyone bringing a coat or piece of winter apparel receives a complimentary ticket voucher for the Towson vs. Hofstra game on January 11.
Check out "Drew and Friends" below, courtesy of our friends at Primary Residential Mortgage.
| Friday December 10, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2665 |
surprising...and not surprising
Someone asked me an interesting question yesterday.
What surprises you (me) the most about the Ravens so far this season?
I had to take a few minutes to think about that one.
And not surprisingly -- no pun intended -- there are lots of things about the season that have surprised me and things that haven't surprised me.
The very first thing I thought about was this: I'm not at all surprised at the Ravens' passing statistics in 2021. I wrote about this last summer and it's still a touchy subject now...in December. Greg Roman's career data shows that his offenses have always been adept at running the football and not very adept at throwing it.
That has been the Ravens' profile with Roman in charge of the offense, even with Lamar at quarterback and one of the best tight ends in football at his disposal. Sure, the Baltimore front office has recently started to provide quality college wide receivers for Roman to use, but even with those guys in the fold, the passing numbers are still bleak.
And that, of course, will be a subject of discussion this off-season unless the Ravens magically turn their passing game around over the next two months.
Is it Roman? His playbook? His knowledge (or lack thereof) of intricate route running combinations? Is it as simple as the players don't fit the system?
All that said, while the fan base and media picks at Roman's passing numbers, there can't be much of a surprise in the way 2021 has played out for the Baltimore offense. If you're surprised they can't throw the ball well, you haven't been paying attention.
I'm a little surprised at how many people in town go after both coordinators given the number of injuries each side of the football has sustained in '21. Wink's working without presumed starters Marcus Peters, L.J. Fort and Derek Wolfe and also lost Brandon Williams for a handful of games. Roman doesn't have a bunch of starters he assumed he'd have, including Dobbons and Edwards at running back, Boykin and Boyle on the receiving end, and his starting left offensive tackle.
I realize injuries and depth are two important parts of football, but both coordinators have had to patch their respective units together throughout the season and somehow the team is still 8-4. And, yet, people are mad about it. It's a little surprising that the coordinators haven't been given more breathing room by the purple faithful.
Speaking of missing key players, I am surprised by the injuries to Ronnie Stanley, Derek Wolfe and Nick Boyle that essentially cost both of them the 2021 season. None of them seemed like the kind of thing that would linger all the way into the season and then, for the most part, cost all three of them a full year of action. Stanley tried to do it and couldn't. Boyle played sparingly in just two games and now appears destined to sit out the rest of the campaign. Wolfe never saw the field.
I'm not suggesting the Ravens did anything wrong, medically, when I ask this question: How did those three things happen?
If, for example, the Ravens would have known Stanley wasn't going to play 16 of the 17 games, would they have done something differently either in the draft or free agency?
Were they convinced Stanley would be healthy for all of 2021? Or were they concerned he might not be, but just hoped it would all work out?
The same for Derek Wolfe. I mean, in the end, the Ravens let Matthew Judon walk last off-season and decided to keep Tyus Bowser and Derek Wolfe, basically. And now, Wolfe hasn't played at all, robbing the team's defense of one of its better interior linemen. How did Wolfe's back and hip injury go from "something we're concerned about" to "he won't play this season"?
Boyle suffered a terrible knee injury a year ago, so his status in '21 was always "iffy", but he eventually made it back, practiced, played, and was apparently not at all ready to go full speed. So he, too, continues to sit in the stands and watch the sluggish Baltimore offense.
Were these just three separate "fluke kind of things" or is there something deeper going on within the Ravens' training staff that needs to be evaluated by the front office? I don't know the answer. I'm just asking the question.
I'm not overly surprised that Lamar Jackson has struggled given all of the team's offensive injuries and the fact that he's now in his 4th season and opposing coaches are learning more about how to contain him, but I do wonder a bit why the Ravens haven't allowed Lamar to run the ball more often.
Not to bring up the "pretty good for a running back" stuff that was all the rage a couple of years ago, but Jackson is better than 75% of the running backs in the league when he carries the ball. And with the team's running back trio not really hitting on all cylinders, why not give Lamar a half dozen more carries than he's been getting every game?
In fairness, Freeman and Murray haven't been awful this year. They are what they are, basically, which is to say they are two veteran backs with some tread left but they're not going to punish opposing defenses any longer. Lamar is the team's best "runner" (with the ball) and has continually displayed the ability to pick up big chunks of yardage all year.
I do understand the concerns about running him too much. Every time he runs the ball there's a risk of injury. I get it. But you're also talking about one of the most dynamic athletes in the league and a guy who can win a game virtually all by himself. And when 10-7 might keep you out of the post-season and 11-6 could win you the division, doesn't it make sense to throw caution to the wind and let your best players do their thing?
But when you've been riddled by injuries all season I guess you're probably -- and rightfully -- concerned about your star quarterback getting hurt.
I was very surprised at the uneven play of Marlon Humphrey in 2021. I certainly didn't see that coming. Now, perhaps the lack of a pass rush has hurt the secondary -- as it often does -- and that can explain a little bit of Humphrey's decline. But I didn't see a "down season" coming from him.
I'm not surprised at the impact Devin Duvernay has had. He seems like a valuable, versatile weapon that can only get better the more touches he gets and the more experience he gains at the receiver spot. I realize the Ravens like to use him as a "running option" on jet sweeps and the like, but I wouldn't discount his ability to catch the ball moving in 2022. I see him as a valuable piece of the offense moving forward and his kick/punt return skills are also an important commodity both now and in the future. I like that kid.
It would be easy to say "I'm not surprised by Justin Tucker", but the truth is, I am surprised at how wildly successful he is and how he almost never misses a kick. I'm not sure a kicker should be *that* good. No offense to Tucker and his expertise, but that guy is borderline flawless. And nearly every game when he attempts a 50 or 52 yarder or has to hit a 44 yarder in the 4th quarter to put the Ravens ahead by three or six points, he not only makes the kick but he basically splits the uprights.
I understand that kicking is a lot like putting in golf. It doesn't really matter where it goes in the hole, as long as it goes in. And it doesn't really matter where the kick goes as long as it ends up between the goalposts. But it seems like every Tucker kick goes right down the middle. It's almost perfect. Every time. And that, to me, is surprising, because I just don't see that many people in the NFL do their jobs with that kind of precision that Tucker displays game after game.
I'm surprised by the impact of Josh Bynes, but not because Bynes isn't a good player or anything like that. I'm surprised because he plays well and then the Ravens don't keep him around, only to bring him back a year or two later. This is his third tour of duty with Baltimore -- the first coming in the 2012-2013 Super Bowl season -- and he has definitely helped Wink Martindale's defense in 2021 despite coming on board in mid-season.
I'm not at all surprised that John Harbaugh has this Ravens team at 8-4. Harbaugh is an outstanding head coach who has a number of strengths; the biggest of which is keeping his locker room intact during the most trying of circumstances. When he goes in the Hall of Fame someday, my guess is that's what you'll hear the most from his former players. "Coach Harbaugh always kept us together..."
And what say you? As you watch this 2021 Ravens season unfold, what surprises you and doesn't surprise you about this year's squad? Use the comments section below and shout it to the masses.
This one's a bit of an oldie-but-goodie, coming from former baseball star Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez, like a lot of people, didn't come into his faith until later in life, but he speaks openly in this video about how his relationship with God helped him both personally and professionally.
I had the opportunity to hear Gonzalez speak at an event a few years and he's one of the more captivating Christian athlete public speakers. I hope you enjoy this 5 minute video, where he talks of the challenges facing Major League baseball players and how they can benefit from a relationship with God.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment.
#dmd comments
| Thursday December 9, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2664 |
tampa bay vs. new england? oh my...
OK, maybe I'm just weak for epic storylines as I get older.
Think, for example, to next April. Jim Nantz starts the final round of the 2022 Masters with this introduction.
"Hello friends, Jim Nantz here with you on what could be one of the greatest days in the history of golf. You're looking live at the practice tee here at Augusta National, where those two men -- Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson -- are preparing to play in the final group on Sunday afternoon here at the Masters. Woods fired a third round 67 to take a one-shot lead over Mickelson, who birdied his final four holes on Saturday to get into today's final pairing with his longtime rival. Settle in, friends, it's setting up to be a once-in-a-lifetime day of golf here at Augusta National."
Can you imagine that scenario? As unlikely as we all think it is, just stop for a second and consider the viewership numbers for that round of golf. And, remember, CBS would have about 16 hours to promote it.
Now.......think about this.
"Welcome to Los Angeles, football fans, where today two of the most influential competitors in the history of the National Football League will duel for the Lombardi Trophy, but unlike the other 9 times when they were together, today Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be trying to beat one another instead of winning the title as a tandem."
Imagine that. And, then, keep in mind that NBC and the NFL would have two weeks to promote and enthusiastically celebrate that historic confrontation between the quarterback and head coach.
Here's what I'm thinking about the possibility of a Tampa Bay-New England Super Bowl: It would be, without question, the most anticipated sporting event of my life. As in, ever.
I've spent the last couple of days casually trying to think about what other sports championships have been "critically important" like a Tampa Bay-New England Super Bowl and I can't come up with one.
I guess the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and Mets was built up to be something special but I don't really recall much about that Mets team, frankly. And the fact the Yankees won 4-games-to-1 probably means it was mostly a mismatch anyway.
Last year's Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl was a biggie because of Mahomes vs. Brady, but before that, I don't remember any recent Super Bowl being all that hyped up or worthy of wild promotion and media coverage.
Just for kicks, on a scale of 1-to-10 in terms of "pre-game hype and interest", here's how the eight prior to last year's title game shaped up:
2020, K.C. vs San Francisco -- 6
2019, New England vs. L.A. Rams -- 6
2018, Philadelphia vs. New England -- 5
2017, New England vs. Atlanta -- 5
2016, Denver vs. Carolina -- 6
2015, New England vs. Seattle -- 5
2014, Seattle vs. Denver -- 7
2013, Baltimore vs. San Francisco -- 6
The only reason Denver vs. Seattle was potentially exciting (the actual game itself was dreadful) was because it was Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl with the Broncos and Russell Wilson was quickly becoming a star in the league. That's why I gave it a "7" on the hype scale.
That Ravens vs. 49'ers game in 2013 wasn't very interesting from the "team vs. team standpoint". I mean, Flacco vs. Kaepernick was about as intriguing as Jeff Garcia vs. Jake Plummer (I know that one never happened...it was just a comparison). Now, the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh coaching-against-one-another angle was particularly intriguing. It got some early week play, but both coaches went out of their way to move the attention back on the game and away from their family rivalry.
For the most part, though, the Super Bowls over the last 15 years haven't had much built-in excitement about the match-ups other than the game itself and all that goes with it.
But if this Tampa Bay vs. New England battle somehow comes to fruition? Holy cow. Holy cow. Holy cow.
I would personally love to see it.
Twitter, though, spoke differently on Wednesday. A 3-hour poll conducted by #DMD yielded the following results.
22% of those responding said, "Yes, please!! Bring it on!!!
28% said, "Whatever. It's fine."
50% were adamantly opposed saying, "No, no, no!! Please, no!"
I think the 50% percent who objected to it are just saying that because of our local disdain for Belichick, Brady and the Patriots, who semi-owned the Ravens throughout the Harbaugh era. If you don't think New England vs. Tampa Bay wouldn't be "must see TV" than you probably also think The Munsters wasn't a funny TV show. Shame on you. On both accounts.
Whether you personally would or wouldn't want to see the match-up, I can't imagine there's anything the league could produce that would come even remotely close to being as anticipated on a national level as Brady vs. Belichick for all the marbles.
If you can think of a one-game or series in our lifetime that had the drama and excitement that Brady vs. Belichick would have, please tell me what it is. I'd love to have something to compare it to, honestly. As it stands, I'll keep on saying it: A New England vs. Tampa Bay Super Bowl this February would be unlike anything we've ever seen in sports.
That is, until Tiger and Phil tee it up in the final group at Augusta National next April...
drew and friends with...tim miller
I enjoyed catching up with Tim Miller of Freestate Electrical yesterday and chatting about the Ravens, Lamar Jackson and plenty of other football related content.
We also spent a few minutes discussing the annual "Winter Apparel Drive" that Glenn Clark and I have been doing for the last 13 years to benefit the men at Helping Up Mission. Tim, his wife Linette, and everyone at Freestate Electrial jumped in feet first last year and donated over 2,500 pieces of apparel themselves! They're doing it all again this year, too, and we'll be heading to Helping Up on December 20 for our annual apparel give away event.
Tim offers lots of good insight on the Ravens, so be sure and check out today's edition of Drew and Friends, brought to you by Primary Residential Mortgage.
this sunday...is really important
You know by now I never call a game a "must win" until you're actually playing a game where your season ends if you lose.
So, by that definition, this Sunday isn't "must win" for the Ravens.
But I'll go as far as saying this: If the Ravens lose on Sunday in Cleveland, they won't make the playoffs.
That's how critical I think the game is for John Harbaugh's team.
A loss puts them at 1-3 in the division and means they'd have to win in Cincinnati and at home vs. Pittsburgh just to go 3-3 in the AFC North.
If you believe in history and stats and data and such, you should know that in the John Harbaugh era, there have been 23 playoff teams come out of the AFC North and 15 of the 23 had a record of 4-2 or better in division play.
Only 8 times since 2008 has an AFC North team finished at 3-3 or worse and made the post-season. It can happen, in other words, but it's not the best way to go about making the playoffs.
This Sunday will go a long way in the Ravens' quest to make the playoffs.
A win puts them at 9-4 and gives them a legit chance at not only making the post-season but winning the division still. It seems reasonable to think 11-6 will win the division and the Ravens still have 3 home games remaining after this Sunday's game in Cleveland.
None of the remaining games are "locks", obviously, although I don't see Pittsburgh having much of a chance here in Baltimore on January 9.
Green Bay comes to town on December 19. I heard their quarterback is pretty good.
The Ravens head to the Bengals on December 26 and, well, we already know what Cincinnati is capable of doing to the Baltimore defense.
Then the Ravens host Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the Rams on January 2nd. My guess is the Rams will almost be in a "must win" situation on January 2nd when they come to town.
And then the Steelers finish things off here in Baltimore in a game that could very well determine if the Ravens make the post-season or not.
The schedule over the next five weeks is pretty difficult.
To me, though, more than the schedule and the opposing quarterbacks they'll face, the biggest element of this Sunday's game vs. the Browns comes down to one word: confidence.
If the Ravens can go into Cleveland and leave with a win given all they've dealt with injury wise and the manner in which they dropped last Sunday's game vs. Pittsburgh, it would be a massive shot in the arm for them both in the standings and spiritually.
But if they lose...without Humphrey...that will certainly be a cloud over their head as they fly back to Charm City. "We're doomed..."
The fact they're playing the Browns is both ideal and not so ideal and it all depends on the outcome. It's one thing if they play this game on Sunday at Kansas City, for example, and lose 27-21. "We put up a good fight, they're tough at Arrowhead, and we probably would have had a tough time beating them with Marlon out there, let alone with him out for the season."
But Sunday's game isn't against the Chiefs. It's against Cleveland, a team the Ravens generally handle, although most of the recent encounters have all gone down to the last five minutes or so.
So if you're looking for something positive, it's merely the fact the Ravens are playing the Browns -- a team they just beat at home two weeks ago. With or without Marlon, they have a real puncher's chance of winning the game.
But if they were to lose...to the Browns...who have their own offensive injury issues...yikes. A loss on Sunday could really damage the Ravens from a confidence standpoint, I'm afraid.
notes and tidbits
Tiger Woods will be, as a lot of people expected, returning to the world of professional golf next weekend when he tees it up with his 12-year old son Charlie in the Father-Son championship in Orlando.
It will be Tiger's first form of competition since the car accident last February and ends weeks of speculation that the Father-Son event would mark his formal return to the sport.
Why next weekend? Why a "hit and giggle" event, as Tiger calls it?
It's simple to explain. For starters, participants are able to ride in a golf cart, which Woods most certainly will do. That topic still remains the biggest question mark surrounding Tiger's return to the PGA Tour in 2022. Can he physically walk the golf course for 5 or 6 consecutive days? That answer will come later, though.
Next, because it's a two-man scramble format and Charlie, based on his age and handicap level, will play from a forward set of tees, Tiger can let his 12-year old golfing prodigy hit first on the par 4 and par 5 holes and potentially not have to drive the ball himself. This would be an ideal situation for Tiger in terms of not putting a significant amount of stress on his still-healing right leg.
Tiger will get a good idea of how much progress he's made, health wise, after playing a Pro-Am round on Friday and then 18 holes on Saturday and Sunday. From there, it's anyone's guess where he might tee it up next, although there's widespread speculation his first official TOUR event of '21-22 will take place February 17-20 at the Genesis Invitational at Los Angeles Country Club.
I heard an interesting name yesterday from someone "in the know" down in College Park as it relates to a potential new hire for Maryland basketball: Eric Musselman.
Musselman is the current head coach at Arkansas, where he led the Razorbacks to a 25-7 record in '20-21 and a berth in the NCAA tournament. Arkansas is 9-0 thus far in '21-22.
Prior to Arkansas, where he started in 2019 (20-12 record), Musselman was a 4-year head coach at Nevada, where he won three conference championships and made consecutive NCAA tournaments.
The 57-year old also had NBA coaching stints with Sacramento and Golden State.
A source told #DMD on Wednesday that Musselman's name has made the rounds in College Park and Terps athletic and school officials are keeping a close eye on the Razorbacks in '21-22.
I realize my defense of the radio hosts at 105.7 doesn't do anything for anyone, but I thought some of the critical remarks about those guys here over the last couple of days -- in general -- were a bit over the top.
I totally understand that "entertainment professionals and hosts" -- in any form of media -- are all acquired tastes. I get that. I've never really found Will Farrell to be all that funny, for example. I've never been a huge fan of Skip Bayless, either. I used to really like Glenn Younes when he was on the air in Baltimore; others didn't care for him.
I certainly had my own fair share of critics when I was on the air for 12 years. As Jay-Z said at the beginning of his song, Hollywood -- "It ain't for everybody."
But the one thing I can say about those guys on 105.7 (and a couple of them I've never really met or shared more than a "hello" with) is that it's incredibly difficult to go in there five days a week for four hours and talk about sports.
You might think it's easy and that's mostly because you've never done it.
(For some reason, it's "Jay-Z Day" here at DMD: "And as for the critics, tell me I don't get it, everybody can tell you how to do it, they never did it." - Already Home - Blueprint III album.)
Trust me, I did it. Four hours a day, five days a week. It's not construction work or hard labor, mind you. We never lifted a hammer or worked under the hood of a car. But it was not easy in the least when you're talking about the totality of it.
I'm not making a specific comment about any one of their hosts in general. Some of them I've worked with in the past and have fondness for, still, and others I just know from the industry and "around town". One thing I can say for sure: They work hard. They don't just wander in there five minutes before their show and say, "What am I going to talk about today?"
You're all welcome to your opinion and other than one racially insensitive comment that was removed yesterday, I left everything up in the comments section even though I considered a number of the messages to be wildly over the top and "personal attacks" more than observations about their sports radio expertise.
But I'm also entitled to my opinion and I know those guys all work hard over there. And I know this for a fact because I did it: it's a tougher gig than people realize.
| Wednesday December 8, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2663 |
interesting times
This has been quite a seven days in Baltimore and Washington D.C., huh?
The Ravens lost one of the most memorable games of the last few years on Sunday in Pittsburgh. It wasn't because the Steelers' 37 year old quarterback with the mobility of The Skipper from Gilligan's Island outplayed our 24-year old-recent-league-MVP quarterback. It was all about "the decision" at the end of the game, were John Harbaugh opted to try and win the game outright with 12 seconds remaining instead of gambling on a 10-minute overtime session.
It's remarkable how one moment like the one we saw on Sunday impacts so much about the coach, the season and the way people evaluate "success and failure".
Had Lamar made a spot-on-throw and had Andrews reeled it in and made it into the end zone for the 2-point conversion, the griping we've heard all week would have been diminished to a faint roar.
"Yeah, we won the game, but it was still the wrong call." You just know that refrain would have been heard on the radio and written on the internet.
In other words: We won but I still have to complain.
Alas, the Ravens didn't win and Harbaugh has been raked over the coals this week, although I think it's fair to note that a lot of people in town also believe he did the right thing with the 2-point conversion decision.
And then, last Friday, in one of the more shocking local sports developments in recent memory, Mark Turgeon's tenure ended in College Park. "How" it ended is still somewhat of a jumbled mess, but the short version is this: Turgeon wasn't all that thrilled with a lot of things in College Park, including some comments made to him about his long term future, a lack of institutional support and a fan base that, he believed, was starting to poison his basketball team.
It might be fair to say that the fans were the tipping point and they ultimately drove Turgeon out of College Park. There's more to it than that, for sure, but the reaction from the fans through the first eight games this season was simply not something the coach was willing to endure for the rest of the '21-22 campaign.
That a coach would be willing to walk away from his team and program eight games into the season says a lot. Some would say it reveals something about his character. I mean, who does that? Right?
But when you know coaches and what drives them and why they do what they do, it's incredibly significant that Turgeon felt so disrespected by the fan base and local community that he didn't think he could continue doing the job. Sure, the lure of $5 million in his hand to walk away, in conjunction with not having to deal with the perceived disrespect, might have also had something to do with it, but it's not like money really matters to him at this point in his career.
When a coach is so fed up with the lack of support -- both institutionally and within the community -- that he quits mid-stream, that's really saying something.
Interesting times, indeed.
I touched on this a little bit last week when I authored a piece here at #DMD asking "when did this all change?"
There was a time, not too long ago, when people bought a ticket, went to the stadium/field/court to support their favorite team, and that was pretty much that. Sure, there was some complaining and finger pointing in the '70's, 80's and 90's, but it's only been about the last 15 years or so where the tide has changed and folks are much more demanding of their teams and personnel than ever before.
These days, people buy a ticket and think they should have a direct say in who gets signed, hired, released and fired. It just is what is. I see some of the logic behind it, given how much access people have these days that didn't have 20 or 30 years ago. But there's also so much stuff that happens behind the scenes that fans never know or find out about.
Last Sunday was an example. The Ravens lost Patrick Mekari at halftime and Marlon Humphrey on their last defensive play of the game. They were reluctant to broadcast that news, of course, since doing so might give the Steelers a competitive, tactical advantage.
But as John Harbaugh and Greg Roman saw Tyre Phillips getting walked over throughout the second half and then knew they were facing overtime without Humphrey, they figured the 2-point conversion try was their best chance to win the game. We might not have rationalized it that way while we were watching because we didn't know the severity of Humphrey's injury, but Harbaugh figured if his defense couldn't stop Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter when Humphrey was in the game, it was highly unlikely they were going to stop Big Ben and the Steelers in overtime without their top cornerback.
Once, when I was running the indoor soccer team in town, we had a road game get greatly impacted because our best player punched an opposing player during the pre-game warm-ups and got arrested minutes before the opening kick-off. No one back in Baltimore knew that, of course. But that's pretty much how we lost the game.
The following season, we lost a game in Dayton, Ohio (to a last place team, if I recall) when three of our players lost their minds and threw snowballs at a police car outside of a restaurant and were promptly hauled into the station and booked on some kind of misdemeanor charge. I got that call in my Dayton hotel room at 2:30 am. I was thrilled, as you can imagine.
So, we benched the three of them the next day and lost the game. But no one back home knew that. I think we told the media they had a virus or something...I honestly don't remember. But we definitely didn't say, "Oh, yeah, three of our moron players threw snowballs at a police car last night and got arrested."
Not everything that goes on within a team (or a business organization, even) is available for public consumption. All around town, people are asking, "What's wrong with Lamar?" Maybe there is something wrong. Maybe he's experiencing some sort of Covid "fallout" or side effect. I have no idea. But the reality is something might be going on with him and we, as outsiders, have no idea about it.
And always remember this, as hard as it is for fans to do: The team is under no obligation at all to share any information with the general public that could be used against them from a competitive standpoint. The mid-week injury report, which is mandatory, is about the only time coaches and teams have to actually tell us what's going on. And they hate doing it, obviously.
We live in a time when people want to know all the intracacies of the team and the decisions and such. And, while there's something to be said for ticket buyers feeling like they have a "stake" in an organization, if the disclosure of information could potentially help the opposing team or player, there's no need at all to share it.
That's why what happened at the end of the game last Sunday even more understandable. The Ravens were running on empty in the 4th quarter and the coaching staff knew it. The fans might not have known it or grasped the severity of it, but they were gassed. And, so, given one moment and one opportunity (sorry, Eminem), they went for the win when they had a chance.
They did the right thing. It just didn't work out.
The one word I come back to a lot when it comes to watching, covering and opining on sports is this: Expectations.
I even use that word a lot in my own coaching and competitive golf efforts: What are your real expectations today? I had a JV player last summer tell me his goal before school started was to break par for the first time.
"What's your best round ever?" I asked him.
"84," he replied.
"You've never broken 80?" was my obvious response.
"No, coach, I haven't, but I've been close. I feel like I should be shooting in the 70's all the time."
I didn't even bother mentioning that "close" to breaking 80 isn't 84. It's 81 or 82. But anyway, I said to him, "You need to break 80 first, regularly, before you think about breaking par."
He just needed to get his expectations in better order. He wanted to shoot 71 at Eagle's Nest before he shot 79.
People expect the Ravens to win. People expect the Terps to win. Both of those programs have created those expectations through years of winning. Interestingly enough, people don't expect the Orioles to win and there's very little angst about their 105-loss seasons. But people expect the Ravens and Terps to win and, when they don't, someone's head has to roll.
People "expect" athletes and coaches to share information with them. That issue was front and center on Monday night after the Patriots-Bills game in Buffalo. A newspaper reporter who covers the Bills asked an oddly-phrased question that drew the ire of two Buffalo defensive players.
"Are you guys embarrassed at the fact you lost a game where the other team only threw the ball 3 times?"
You can watch the exchange in the press conference below.
The general thought behind the question wasn't that out-of-this-world crazy. The Bills had, after all, just lost a game where the Patriots only threw three passes the entire night.
But it's all in the presentation. And the way it was worded.
This would have been a much better way to ask the question: "Is it frustrating to lose a game like that when the other team was obviously not going to throw the ball all night but they somehow did just enough to win?"
"Frustrating" instead of "embarrassing" would have made all the difference in the world, I'm thinking.
I've told this story before about a tense exchange I had once with John Harbaugh that actually spilled over to the next week's game in Charlotte.
The Ravens lost a Monday night game in Atlanta and had, once again, failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first half of a road game. I don't remember the exact data, but it strikes me that perhaps they had gone 7 straight road games without a first half offensive touchdown.
I asked Harbaugh about that on Tuesday when he met with the media.
"Coach, are you concerned about the problems the offense is having in the first half on the road? Another game last night where you failed to score an offensive touchdown."
And then I added the next sentence in...and I honestly was not trying to show him up in any way: "It's seven straight games...I assume you're well aware of that stat."
He bristled for a second and then answered the question. He wasn't openly and obviously ticked, like the Buffalo players were, but if you knew his facial expressions and general body language -- which I definitely did -- you could tell he was not happy with the way I worded the question.
A Ravens rep reached out to me later that night and let me know Harbaugh was, in fact, not happy with what he thought was an attempt to expose him for not knowing what was going on with his own team.
"That was not my intention," I stated. "Come on, I'm there every week, twice a week, in fact. I'm not trying to stir the pot."
But the more I thought about it, the more I realized it was the way I worded it that sounded odd. I didn't like falling on the sword for things like that back then, but the reality was I fouled up there. I didn't do it intentionally. But I had to own the fact that the way I worded the question could have been construed as an attempt to point something out to Harbaugh that he didn't know about his own team.
Had I just left off the "It's been 7 games now. I assume you know that stat," I think everything would have been fine.
The following Sunday in Charlotte, John and I had a brief, tense exchange in the locker room following his press conference. It flared up briefly, his Director of Security stepped in, and that was that. The next day, we met for a minute or so at the Ravens office and shook hands and moved on. John was always good like that. He'd say what was on his mind and I'd say what was on mine and we'd shake hands and that would do it.
The morning after the Ravens signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, I called the wide receiver a "career loser" on my show and wondered why on earth the Ravens would take a player with such heavy baggage.
Two days later, John saw me at practice and walked over.
"That was a pretty harsh thing you said about T.J. the other morning," he said to me. "Yeah, I was listening. Career loser? Come on, Drew. There's no need to say that. You can disagree with the signing but you don't have to stoop to that level. That's what they do in New York."
"John, the Seahawks gave him 13 million dollars and told him to go play for someone else," I shot back. "I don't think that would happen to a "winner".
"Fair point," he said, as he stuck out his hand to shake mine. "I just wanted to tell you I thought that was unfair to him. But I see your point."
Coaches see things differently than everyone else. They're trying to protect their team, the players, the coaching staff and, of course, their own work and reputation.
In my travels speaking to coaches of various levels through occasional speaking engagements, I always ask them this: "Who motivates you?"
Coaches motivate the players. You hear it time and time again. "The coach didn't have them ready to play..." It might seem distinctly odd that someone has to motivate a guy who is getting $25 million to play football, basketball, baseball, etc. but it's a fact of the matter that some athletes need to be pushed and motivated to deliver a high quality performance.
The coaches are tasked with developing and teaching the game plan. They're tasked with scouting the other team and being prepared for anything that might happen in the game. And they're also tasked with motivating the players who, in a weird twist of fate, ultimately determine their success as a coach.
But who motivates the coach? Who is there for the coach when he or she needs a touch of support or favorable discourse?
So that's why someone like John Harbaugh or Nick Saban, in the video below, gets testy when an outsider critiques or picks apart his team. This 4 minutes from Saban is one of the best things you'll ever see when it comes to a coach speaking the gospel about sports and "the way things are".
Now some would say it's easy for Saban to get chippy like that since he pretty much owns the Tuscaloosa sports scene, but his record at Alabama speaks for itself. They wanted winning football and they got it. In fact, they get it just about every year. And, so, Saban is entitled to speak out just a bit more than someone who goes 6-6 every year.
These are interesting times in sports.
Everyone watching has an opinion.
A lot of those people with opinions have this distorted view of reality; where they actually believe they know just as much as the men and women who are doing the actual "real" coaching.
Everyone draws a line in the sand these days and says "This is the where I see it" and there's no room for movement. And then they're waiting for a moment where they can say, "I told you I was right!"
I have a friend who is very anti-Lamar Jackson. His word for Lamar: novelty. My friend is convinced that Jackson is pretty much a flash in the pan.
Anytime Lamar does something well or right, my friend always points to what the defense failed to do.
"What about that throw Lamar made to Sammy Watkins on Sunday night with 12 seconds to go?" I say.
"Dude, if the safety doesn't slip coming out of his break, Watkins never gets that separation in the end zone. 4 times out of 5, that play gets broken up."
But when Lamar threw that first quarter interception in the end zone, the text arrived 5 seconds later. "Lamar throwing off his back foot like a rookie! Flash in the pan!"
My friend is a Ravens fan who doesn't like the quarterback. And now that he's drawn a line in the sand, he'd basically rather Lamar stink so he can be right than have the team win and Lamar do something to help them win. It's really, really weird.
But that's where we are these days. Everyone wants to be right. Everyone wants to say "I told you so".
Everyone, I'd say, should take a step back and remember that you're rooting for the city or state on the front of the uniform. Wouldn't you rather they win than lose?
After writing about the Ravens 2021 defense last week, my intention was to follow with an analysis of the offense for this week's column. Sunday afternoon I was scrolling through some stats and getting my thoughts together of how I would approach the column.
At about 7:30 Sunday evening my thought process, of course, changed with the attempted 2 point attempt by the Ravens in their narrow 20-19 loss.
You're probably tired of rehashing this play if you are like me. But bear with me. I'm not sure I cover any new ground here or not. I hope there is at least a little kernel in here that allows you to look at the decision process slightly differently.
To be honest, my expectation was that there would be a ton of hand wringing and finger pointing about that decision with little support for it. Casual fans, from my perspective, tend to base their like or dislike solely on the result of the play. In reality, the response has been fairly balanced from my perspective. I think that speaks to how strong the arguments are on both sides of the debate.
Way back in Week 2, I wrote the following after Harbaugh elected to go for it late in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 from their own 43 yard line against the Chiefs:
So what would have happened if the Ravens failed to convert? Well, if the above modeling is correct they fail 28% of the time (I personally think that may be a little high failure rate...I also suspect that their loss rate is higher than 58% if they fail to convert). And if that happens, more often than not, they lose the game. Does that mean they made a bad decision? Of course not, it just means that the 28% odds came through in that exact situation...it happens. Guess what? It's going to happen. It might happen next week, next month or in the playoffs. Or it may happen 2 years from now...but it will happen. And fans will be BIG MAD when it does. The key will be to remember there were successes before that led to that decision and, unfortunately, part of the distribution of outcomes is failure.
Of course, Sunday's decision in Pittsburgh wasn't the same as the decision at home against Kansas City. But the decisions are never EXACTLY the same. The variables are slightly different, the situations are different, the players may be different.
About the only thing that isn't different is the thought process: WHAT DECISION DO I MAKE TO GIVE MY TEAM THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN THIS GAME IN THIS SITUATION? This is the question that analytics tries to help coaches and teams make. Analytics doesn't care about extending the game or making the score less embarrassing, it only cares about identifying the best way to WIN. Period.
Now sometimes coaches make decisions that SEEM to run counter to answering that question. Mike Tomlin punted in Sunday's game four times on fourth and 4 or less. All were questionable from my perspective. Part of that is just who he is as a coach and his approach to decision making. Part of it, at least from my perspective, is that he is risk averse to the detriment of his team. But that's another column for another day.
Or maybe they are privy to information that we aren't: my left tackle is just getting abused by the defensive end or my running back is a little gimpy and doesn't have his normal explosion. That coach may use that information, to make what appears to be a poor analytical decision. But since he has additional information, his decision may be entirely reasonable.
Some decisions may be so close that it's really hard to argue with either approach. A reasonable person could look at either decision and think "that seems fine to me". I believe Sunday's decision falls in that category. I don't think going for two was a materially better or worse decision than kicking the extra point.
I have thought a lot about it, looked at the numbers and thought about it some more. I've listened to talking heads on TV and radio express their opinions. I've read the reactions from the players actually in that locker room. And after all of that; I think I would have been fine with either approach. And I say that as someone who thinks the default should be to avoid kicking whenever possible in almost any situation.
So when I see these histrionic, outsized reactions to Harbaugh's decision, I think those reactions can't possibly be taken seriously. Sure you can have a position and think what he did is wrong. That seems reasonable to me. But to think that the decision has some larger meaning about this team's direction or John's place in the team's future is, to put it bluntly, asinine.
The Math –
So now that I've stated my opinion, let's look at this through the lens of the data. Obviously, the genesis of this column is to look to data to help make informed decisions.
I looked at a few different modeling services and the models ranged from a change in Win Probability (WP) for the 2 point try of -6 to +2. I think I looked at four models and two were roughly -6 in WP, one was virtually even and one favored the try by +2. So on a blended basis that seems to favor kicking the extra point and fighting it out in likely OT.
It's important to note, however, that the above models generally use generic league wide statistics in arriving at their conclusions. Some of the team specific variables would likely change the modeling slightly in one way or another.
To me there are a few team specific variables that I believe should be considered: Justin Tucker, team health, historical conversion rates and team identity. Let's take a look at each and ponder how they individually impact the decision Harbaugh made.
Justin Tucker
Arguably the best kicker ever. He does virtually everything well. Strong leg, incredible accuracy, doesn't get lost in the biggest of moments…the dude is basically a cheat code. The fact that he is considered one of the best players on the team says all you need to know. AS A FRIGGING KICKER! None of this is information you don't already know.
The models use an extra point conversion rate of roughly 94% (oddly this season the average is down to an historically low 92.5%). But #9 has made nearly 99% of his extra points. So that would strengthen the case for kicking an extra point, if only slightly.
Tucker's presence in overtime will also increase the WP% for the Ravens specifically as compared to the league average. I'm not exactly sure how to model what the difference is that he brings.
But I saw a few analytics guys weigh in that he probably adds 3-5% of increased WP% for the Ravens. That seems reasonable to me. But whatever the exact number is, he certainly is an asset, has obviously won overtime games and will almost assuredly do it again in the future.
Team Health
Well we know how the Ravens are doing in this category. And incredibly the situation got worse only moments before the 2 point try presented itself. It seems that Marlon Humphrey was injured on the defense's last play from scrimmage. Harbaugh said that this injury played into his decision and I believe him.
The thought of going out and trying to stop the Steelers offense without your best defensive player seems daunting to say the least. It's one thing to know you are not going to have him all week and scheming around that as much as possible. But it's maybe equally as difficult to do it unexpectedly heading into an OT without that preparation.
The defense was struggling with the Steelers quick passing game in the fourth quarter WITH #44 playing. It certainly wasn't going to improve without him in the game.
So the health of the team and the general flow of the game would point in the direction of ending the game quickly rather than sending to OT and seeing what would happen. Thus a 2 point try seems reasonable given these variables.
Conversion Rates
So here is where statistics can get a bad name if not parsed properly. Depending on what you look at, the Ravens could be heavy favorites to convert the try or absolutely crazy to try for two. What do I mean?
As someone stated in the comments, the team is only 3 of 10 (30%) in 2 point attempts since Lamar took over. This is far lower than the league wide average of about 48%. This season the Ravens were 2 for 4 (50%) prior to this spot. The problem with these percentages? Both are ridiculously small sample sizes and likely do not reveal the true expectation of success. While this specific data is not supportive of going for it, we probably don't put a ton of value in the results because of the sample size.
So we can look to the next most common statistic for some guidance: 4th down conversions. As stated above, this is not an exact comparison…they never are. 4th down tries can be of varying yardages and against defenses attempting to do different things. What I mean is stopping a 4th down conversion with limited time on the clock may not be as important to a defense as not allowing the offense to get behind them. So it isn't a direct comparison but it does give us a larger sample size to draw some conclusions from.
And what are the results? Well this season the Ravens are 9 of 13 (69%) on ALL 4th down tries. Over the 3 years since Lamar has been the starter, the Ravens are 38/56 (68%). So while the comparison isn't exact, this does seem to suggest that the Ravens are pretty good at these pressure tries. The success of these 4th down attempts would move the needle in favor of trying the 2 point try and ending the game.
Team Identity
Harbaugh and the entire organization has embraced an analytical approach to the game. Mike Tomlin said as much when he was quoted "They aggressively play analytics. From that standpoint, they're predictable". Some analytics nerds were put off by this and got MAD on Twitter.
But I think they misread what Tomlin was saying. Basically, he was saying it wasn't a surprise the Ravens went for it. It's who they are, it's how they think…part of their DNA, if you will. He was not saying that what they did specifically on the field was predictable just that their aggressive mentality was not a surprise. At least that is how I interpreted it.
Harbs has evolved into this approach. Certainly having a quarterback with Lamar's skill set gives the teams options that other teams simply don't have. But it is clear that the approach is embraced by the organization from top to bottom. They are going to push the opposition on every play, every series and in every game as hard as they can. They are going to make the opponent defend for 4 downs where others would kick it back. And teams that aren't ready for it could get overwhelmed (the last 3 or 4 games notwithstanding).
So given this identity I think this further pushes the decision into the 2 point try column. The team understands that playing to scoop up as many edges as possible will sometimes produce undesirable outcomes.
But the process is more important than the outcome when you think the way the Ravens think. Did they think through the variables properly? Did they model the situation appropriately? If the answer to those questions is yes then you live with the result.
There is no doubt in my mind that Harbaugh and staff have asked themselves those questions after the defeat. He, no doubt, has access to far more modeling than I do. The Ravens modeling may have differed in result expectation versus what I saw. But it seems clear, at least to me, that the decision was very close and obviously some of the variables mentioned above tilted Harbaugh in the direction of the 2 point try.
There is an expression in the analytics community that "you can't date the data you have to marry it". Basically this means if you want to realize the benefits of taking an analytically sound approach you have to embrace it for what it is by realizing large sample sizes. Picking and choosing spots randomly will not provide the results you are seeking.
If something has a 60% likelihood of success you don't know when those 60% of outcomes will be realized beforehand. So you try and make the sample size as large as possible so that the 60% realization rate comes to fruition.
So back to the start: was the decision correct or not? After all of this back and forth, I don't have a strong opinion. At the time, I thought going for two was correct. My wife, who can likely name two players on the Ravens, had no clue why they wouldn't just trot Tucker out there and tie it. I would have been fine if he had chosen that route.
My gut is in the exact same spot in the future, Harbaugh will make the same decision. And if it doesn't work, the outrage and hysteria will repeat itself again. Imagine if it was in the Super Bowl…yikes!
happy birthday to the g.o.a.t.
The great James Douglas Morrison, lead singer of The Doors, was born on this day in 1943.
Jim Morrison was an iconic figure in rock-n-roll until his untimely death at age 27. He, along with keyboardist Ray Manzarek, founded the California based band in the mid 1960's.
Here's what his Wikipedia biography says: James Douglas Morrison (December 8, 1943 – July 3, 1971) was an American singer, poet and songwriter who was the lead vocalist of the rock band the Doors. Due to his wild personality, poetic lyrics, distinctive voice, unpredictable and erratic performances, and the dramatic circumstances surrounding his life and early death, Morrison is regarded by music critics and fans as one of the most iconic and influential frontmen in rock history. Since his death, his fame has endured as one of popular culture's most rebellious and oft-displayed icons, representing the generation gap and youth counterculture.
As most of you likely know by now, The Doors are my favorite band of all time. I, along with a couple of my other crazy friends in high school, listened to them every day in the late 1970's and early 1980's.
Putting together any kind of list of favorite songs and favorite albums would be incredibly difficult, although there's no doubt my #1 song of all time is L.A. Woman. Thereafter, it just depends on the mood, the time of year and so forth. I know every word to every song, though, so I have that going for me...which is nice.
My favorite album is "Morrison Hotel" and here's my top song from it:
| Tuesday December 7, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2662 |
the craziness is......everywhere
I remember those Monday mornings after a loss all too well.
The station's phone lines lit up at 6:07 am and didn't stop until 9:59 am.
Everyone had an answer.
Yesterday was a particularly interesting day on the Baltimore airwaves.
I'm only highlighting a handful of the calls I heard. There were plenty more where these came from, trust me.
"Line 1, Bill in Owings Mills. What's on your mind, Bill?"
"Yeah, I just have to say this. It's time for Harbaugh to go. You play 59 minutes and however many seconds only to throw the whole game away on a dumb decision. He's gotta go."
"I hear ya, Bill. It was a head scratcher for sure. You have the best kicker in the league on your team, why not use him for the extra point and then win it in overtime? I mean, it's not like Tucker hasn't had success in Pittsburgh before. In overtime, even. Kick the extra-point, win the coin toss, kick a field goal, get a defensive stop...ballgame."
Harbaugh, listening in: "Dang, that's a great idea. I wish I would have thought of having Tucker kick the extra point and then winning the coin toss, kicking a field goal, and stopping the Steelers. Shucks. I whiffed on that one."
"Right back to the phones, the lines are jammed this afternoon. Wayne in Hunt Valley..."
"So Lamar just has to stop throwing those interceptions, guys. Does he realize how damaging those picks are? They're killing us."
"No doubt, Wayne. Good point. (3 seconds of silence). What else you got for us?"
"Nothing, really. I just wanted to point out that those picks are really hurting us, especially that one on Sunday in the end zone. Lamar needs to stop with those sloppy passes."
"We agree. It's not good."
Lamar listening in: "You know what's weird? I was sitting at my locker before the Steelers game and I looked over at Hollywood and I said, 'What do ya think? Should I throw a pick in the red zone today?' and he smiled and said, 'Sure, why not? It's an away game. Ain't nobody gonna boo you here at least,' so that's why I did it. And you know what? Hollywood was right. Nobody booed me."
"Let's go back to the phones and see what Lonnie has to say in West Baltimore. Lonnie?"
"Thanks for taking my call, guys. I just wanna say I don't understand why Roman keeps on playing that guy Tyre Phillips. Have you watched the tape on him? He's terrible."
"Well, Phillips was only in because Patrick Mekari got hurt a couple of times during the game."
"Doesn't matter. He shouldn't be in there at all. Every time he's in he gives up a sack."
"You do know he was the only other guy they had to use in place of Mekari, right?"
"Like I said, that's their fault. Phillips should be on the taxi squad."
Harbaugh listening in: "Even if Phillips was on the practice squad, he'd still be playing. We don't have any offensive lineman left. Period. We're down to the bare bones guys at this point. Where's Adam Terry? Anyone know?
"Line 4, Steve in Timonium wants to talk about Greg Roman."
"I can't figure out why we didn't have a game plan for TJ Watt on Sunday. How do we not have a plan for the best pass rusher in the league? What was Roman thinking?"
"Good point, Steve. It sure looked like they went into the game without really addressing what to do about Watt. It's hard to figure out how they could ignore him."
"That's the kind of stuff that makes me say 'Roman has to go'. You literally have the best pass rusher in the league facing you and you just let him run wild all day."
"We get it. It's hard to understand, Steve."
Roman listening in: "TJ Watt plays for Pittsburgh? Since when? I thought he was with Atlanta. Well don't you worry, we'll be ready for him on January 9 in Baltimore. I won't get fooled the next time."
"Let's go back to the phones. Everyone wants to talk Ravens. Chris in Towson, you're up next. What's going on?"
"I know you guys are gonna think I'm nuts but just hear me out. If Lamar goes to Cleveland and plays terrible again, what would you guys think about starting Tyler Huntley against Green Bay? I mean, he's only played one game this season and he drove us down the field to beat the Bears. I'm not saying 'bench' Lamar, but if he doesn't play well in Cleveland I think you have to at least consider Huntley."
"Look, Chris, nothing's off the table at this point. Something's obviously not right with Lamar. He's throwing off his back foot, not picking up the hot read, and he's back to that sidearm throwing motion again, which ain't cool."
"I'm just saying, man. Lamar ain't making the adjustments. Maybe send him a message and start Huntley."
Lamar listening in: "If our offensive line keeps playing the way they're playing, I think I might agree with you. Let Huntley go in there and get his brains beat in the way I've been getting mine beat in."
Here's the thing. Of those five phone calls above, four are (were) real.
Four of those five were actually made on Monday to the local sports station in town. The names have been changed to protect the (insert whatever word you want to describe them) but the general contents of the call and the host's reply are legit.
Fire the coach.
Lamar has to stop throwing interceptions.
Why was Tyre Phillips playing?
Why didn't Greg Roman have a game plan for TJ Watt?
Maybe we should start Tyler Huntley against Green Bay if Lamar doesn't play well vs. Cleveland.
I always say this: Nothing good ever comes from losing. People lose their minds. The Ravens are fighting tooth and nail every week with half their roster, basically.
They've lost their best blocking tight end, both of their #1 and #2 running backs and their starting left offensive tackle. Their secondary is a shambles. One of their best interior defensive lineman didn't play a down all season. Their quarterback had Covid-19 at least once that we know of. Their #1 draft pick missed the first month of the season with an injury.
I missed five or six other injuries but who cares? We covered the important ones.
And, yet, they're somehow 8-4. Should they or could they be 4-8 or 6-6? Of course. They pulled a couple of games out of their hat that made Shin Lim jealous. But even with all the setbacks and obstacles, they're 8-4.
It is going to get better? Any chance of that?
I guess there's a slim chance, sure. But it's certainly not looking good at this point. Perhaps the offense can re-percolate and overcome the Marlon Humphrey injury, but it definitely doesn't feel like things are going to improve between now and January 9.
One thing for sure, though. John Harbaugh and his staff and his team aren't going to quit. They'll be in it until the very end.
Now...back to the phones for more calls on how to fix the Ravens.
u.s. men's soccer stock report
It was a rough week for Americans in European soccer. Several players saw their teams suffer bad losses, there was some concerning injury news, and one of the top American coaches had his season cut short. Amongst that bleak backdrop, there were a couple bright spots, with one young defender delivering a big performance in his return to the starting lineup.
Meanwhile, back home in the States, three USMNT players were named to the MLS Best XI (equivalent of the All-Pro team) and a couple others helped their team advance to the MLS Cup Final.
This weekend, New York City FC, featuring USMNT reserves James Sands and Sean Johnson, pulled out a dramatic 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union with a late comeback to secure a spot in the championship game. It was an especially tough loss for Philadelphia, who was missing eleven of its best players due to a Covid outbreak.
In the Western Conference, the Portland Timbers delivered a convincing 2-0 defeat to Real Salt Lake to secure the other MLS Cup Final spot. NYCFC will travel to Portland for the final on Saturday at 3:00pm.
This week we'll follow up the normal stock report with a brief look at the USMNT December training camp and a preview of this week's pivotal last round of Champions League group stage games.
Stock Up –
Let's start off with the good news from the weekend. Three USMNT players were named to the MLS Best XI. Walker Zimmerman, Miles Robinson, and Matt Turner were all recognized for their impressive seasons in the domestic league. Zimmerman took home the Defender of the Year award for the second straight year and Turner was named Goalkeeper of the Year.
In Germany, young center back Chris Richards got the start for Hoffenheim in a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Richards delivered his best performance of the season, winning a high percentage of his duels and providing multiple crucial interceptions on the back line. In addition to his strong defense, Richards consistently played progressive passes to initiate Hoffenheim attacking sequences. He was aggressive both winning balls and pushing forward into the attacking end.
The win moves Hoffenheim into fifth place and puts them squarely in the competition for the final spot for next season's Champions League. Richards has been mostly used as a substitute in recent weeks, but this performance could go a long way to winning him back a starting role.
Over in France, November USMNT standout Tim Weah had another strong outing in Lille's 2-1 win over third place Rennes on Wednesday. Starting at right wing, Weah made a great play to settle a long ball over the top of the defense on the run and then cut back to a teammate in the box for an assist on the first Lille goal. He set up several more dangerous chances with crosses whipped in from the right wing and pressed the opposing defenders into a couple big mistakes.
Weah is making a strong case with his club and country performances that he should be the top option at right wing for the US. Unfortunately he missed Lille's weekend 2-1 win over Troyes with a quadriceps injury he picked up in training. It's currently unclear how bad the injury is, but it is definitely worrying for a player who has been plagued by leg injuries in the past. It looks like he will at least miss the key Champions League match against Wolfsburg this week.
One more positive note on the week came from England, where Christian Pulisic started and played the full game for Chelsea in a 2-1 win over Watford on Wednesday. While the American attacker didn't have a huge impact on the game, it's a promising sign to see him back up to full game fitness after his long return from injury. He was used as a late substitute in a disappointing 3-2 loss to West Ham over the weekend and will be a strong candidate to get some minutes in Chelsea's Champions League game this week.
Stock Down –
Sadly there were more negatives this week than positives for Americans abroad. The most disappointing news came out of Germany, where American coach Jesse Marsch was relieved of his duties at RB Leipzig. The decision was announced after Leipzig dropped another league game, despite Marsch being away from the sidelines with Covid.
Things have not gone as planned for the promising American coach in Germany this season, as Leipzig sits in the middle of the table, well out of their expected position in the Champions League places. It was always going to be a difficult task for Marsch to live up to expectations after the club lost several of its top players this offseason. He will surely land on his feet somewhere after his impressive record at Salzburg and may one day be a candidate for the USMNT job.
Another poor performance in Germany came from veteran center back John Brooks. After rebounding from his roster snub in November with a string of good showings, Brooks had one to forget this weekend. Wolfsburg gave up two goals in the first five minutes and Brooks was pulled at halftime as they adjusted their formation to try to get back into the game.
In Italy a couple other Americans had some poor team results. After a solid outing last week, both Gianluca Busio and Tanner Tessman started for Venezia in Tuesday's matchup with Atalanta. It did not go as well this week. A hot Atalanta team blew the doors off Venezia 4-0 and each young American was responsible for one of the goals. Tessman had a poor turnover then got nutmegged on the pass for the first goal and then Busio lost his man on a give and go that led to the second goal.
Both players started on the bench this weekend and came on as late second half subs in a 4-3 loss to Verona. This game was a little better individually despite the team blowing a three goal lead to lose. Tessman in particular had one spectacular moment, playing a pass from deep in midfield with a man on his back that broke several lines of defense and sprung his winger for a decent attacking chance. These players are both very young and will have their ups and downs, but each has shown flashes of a bright potential future.
Stock Even —
In Spain it was good to see Sergino Dest get back in the starting lineup for Barcelona. He had been injured before the coaching change and there was some concern that he may not be favored by new coach Xavi. It seems that he has retained his starting spot now that he is back healthy. He didn't stand out in a good or bad way in the 1-0 loss to Real Betis.
Former Barcelona youth player, Konrad de la Fuente, started both games this week for 3rd place French side Marseille. The 20 year old winger had a couple dangerous moments in each game, demonstrating good passing and movement. Overall he didn't have a huge impact in either the 1-0 win over Nantes or the 2-1 loss to Brest, but it is a positive sign that he continues to get solid playing time for one of the top teams in France.
December USMNT Camp –
This week members of the USMNT began coalescing in California for a short training camp before the December 18 exhibition game with Bosnia and Herzegovina. This training camp is mainly to keep some of the MLS based players sharp with their season over and important qualifiers coming up in January. In addition, several members of the Under 20 team have been brought in to get a look with the senior team. A few of the mainstays have been given the time off to rest before returning in January.
Since this is not a sanctioned FIFA window, none of the players in Europe would be released from their clubs, so they were not called in. This camp welcomes back two players returning from long term injuries. Both Jordan Morris and Aaron Long are back with the US for the first time in a year after recovering. It will be interesting to see how they fit back in a team that has changed a lot since their last outings.
Another player of interest in this camp is 18 year old Caden Clark. The New York Red Bull attacking midfielder is set to join fellow American Tyler Adams at RB Leipzig in Germany starting in January. It remains unclear if he will end up playing for Leipzig this season or if they will opt to loan him out somewhere to get more playing time. Either way, he is the under 20 player with the best chance of breaking into the senior team before the World Cup in Qatar.
Champions League –
This week brings the final round of group stage games in the Champions League. There are big stakes on the line for several of the American players as their teams fight to advance to the knockout round.
On Tuesday, Tyler Adams and Leipzig play Paris St. Germain. Although they have been eliminated from the knockout round, Leipzig need a win to secure a spot in the lower Europa League tournament. Gio Reyna could be in line to make his return from injury for Borussia Dortmund against Besiktas in a relatively meaningless game, with both teams eliminated from the knockouts and Dortmund assured a Europa League spot. The American attacker has been out since getting injured in USMNT duty in September.
Wednesday will see three Americans featured in the most competitive group in the tournament. Lille will miss Tim Weah due to injury as they take on John Brooks and Wolfsburg. Lille currently leads the group with 8 points, but all four teams remain in contention for the two knockout round places going into the last day. Wolfsburg are still mathematically alive with 5 points, but need to win and get a lot of help. In the other group game, Brenden Aaroson and Salzburg will need at least a draw against Salzburg to secure a knockout spot.
Elsewhere on Wednesday, both Juventus and Chelsea have secured advancement, but are battling for the top spot in their group as they take on Malmo and Zenit St. Petersburg respectively. Christian Pulisic is likely to see some time for Chelsea, but Weston McKennie will probably still be out injured for Juventus.
Sergino Dest and Barcelona have a monumental task ahead of them as they travel to Munich. They will likely need a win over Bayern to get into the knockout round, although it's possible to advance with only a draw if Benfica fails to beat Dynamo Kiev.
| Monday December 6, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2661 |
that's why they call it a "gamble"
In the four seasons that Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh have been together in Baltimore, they've never been shy about taking a risk. I don't have the data in front of me, but the Ravens have converted a lot of 4th and 2 situations (or thereabouts) since Jackson took over in mid-season of the 2018 campaign.
The Ravens needed a measly two yards yesterday in Pittsburgh to complete an improbable last minute drive. The only problem? If they didn't pick up the two yards, they'd lose the game.
You saw what happened. The dice finally turned up bad for John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens lost the game, falling 20-19 to a Steelers team that was on the ropes all afternoon but somehow managed to hang around long enough to pull off a critical win.
It was, like nearly all other 11 games they had played prior to yesterday, a crazy 60 minutes of football. The Ravens were in complete control for most of the afternoon, fell behind with less than 2 minutes remaining, then nearly won the game after Lamar found Sammy Watkins in the end zone with 12 seconds to play.
And then came "the decision".
Harbaugh immediately motioned for the two-point conversion after the Watkins TD grab. It was "win or go home" time for the Ravens.
The play call was well designed. Mark Andrews came across the base of the offensive line and wiggled himself wide open, a yard or so from the end zone. All Lamar had to do was hit him with a pass in stride and Andrews would have barreled into the end zone for the two point conversion and a 21-20 win. Instead, the pass was high and off-target by a hair and the tight end wasn't able to bring the ball in for a catch.
Game over. Ravens lose. Steelers keep their season alive.
It all seemingly came down to that play. But did it, really?
Lamar and the offense had the ball for 23:30 of the first half. You read that right. They had the ball for 23 minutes and 30 seconds of a 30-minute half and scored a grand total of 7 points. It's hard to win with that kind of offensive "blah" going on.
The Ravens squandered an early chance to get in the end zone when Lamar badly underthrew Andrews in the end zone. Instead of a 7-0 lead, it was 0-0 after Minkah Fitzpatrick's interception. They would eventually lead 7-3 at the intermission, but it wasn't the best football ever played and you just had that weird feeling...you know, the one that says "you're going to regret keeping the Steelers in this one."
In the second half, the Ravens once again threatened to score, getting the ball to the Pittsburgh 12 yard line in the 3rd quarter before the drive stalled and Tucker connected on a field goal to make it 10-3.
In the 4th, the Ravens had the ball on the Steelers' 11 and couldn't get in the end zone. Tucker hit yet another field goal to make it 13-9.
A red zone trip in the first quarter resulted in an interception.
And two red zone appearances in the second half resulted in a pair of field goals.
No one has written a best-selling book on how to keep the Steelers in a game they shouldn't otherwise still be in, but the Ravens wrote the first few chapters on Sunday.
What could have been or should have been something like a 24 or 28 point outburst by early in the fourth quarter was instead a 13-9 lead. And you know what happened from there. The Steelers hit a field goal of their own midway through the final period, then scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:48 remaining. And, unlike the Ravens, Pittsburgh connected on their 2-point attempt to take the 20-13 lead.
Most folks will point to the failed two point conversion as the reason why the Ravens lost, but it was their failure to execute in the red zone that cost them dearly. Cash in on those trips deep in Pittsburgh territory and the game is a blowout.
Now, back to "the decision".
Me, personally? I was totally fine with it. There were a lot of moving parts to factor in after the late touchdown throw to Watkins and most of them were, honestly, working against the Ravens.
The Baltimore defense was gassed and cornerback Marlon Humphrey had just sustained a serious arm injury on the Pittsburgh touchdown in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter. And Pittsburgh went through the Ravens defense like a hot knife in butter in the 4th quarter, another factor I'm sure John Harbaugh and his staff considered when they went for two at the end of the game.
Oh, and the Ravens offense, despite that final minute drive from their own 40 yard line, hadn't been reminding anyone of the 49'ers in the Montana-Rice era.
It's all a gamble, of course. But Harbaugh had to be thinking this: My offense is having trouble putting touchdowns up and the Steelers just shredded our defense in the 4th quarter. If we get a chance to get two yards right now and win, that's what we're doing.
I think it was the right move.
Now, don't get me wrong. Kicking the extra point there and living to fight into overtime wouldn't have been a stupid move, either. I mean, you do have the best kicker in the game, after all. But given the two options of going for it and trying to win the game right then and there or sending the game to overtime and hoping you win, I think I'll take "going for it" in that situation every time. It's two yards, after all. Six friggin' feet. Come on, man. Just get two yards and let's get back to Baltimore.
Except T.J. Watt had other ideas. The All-Pro menace raced off the line unblocked and was just enough of a distraction that it caused Lamar to change his arm angle a hair on the throw to Andrews for the potential game-winner. Instead of being able to throw directly to Andrews, Lamar had to throw "around" Watts' outstretched arm and that change in direction was just enough to make the catch much more difficult for Andrews.
When the ball bounced off of Andrews' hands and the Ravens were 20-19 losers, the second guessing began.
"Has Harbaugh lost his mind?"
"Why can't Andrews ever make a big catch in a big game?"
"Lamar has been "off" in the last three games he's played."
"That's the dumbest decision Harbaugh's ever made."
I'll say it again for the people in the back of the room: I understand the logic behind kicking the extra point and hoping to win the game in overtime, but I think going for the 2-point conversion and the win there was the best thing to do given the situation and the way the 4th quarter had unfolded.
We can't get two lousy yards when we need it? Eh, if that's the case, we probably don't deserve to win.
Make no mistake about it, though, Harbs will get brushed with a marinade sauce and grilled all day today, tomorrow and probably into Wednesday of this week. He took a gamble and it failed. And for that, he's going to get blistered by a certain segment of the fan base.
Here are three pressing questions in light of the loss to the Steelers and the 8-4 record.
What's wrong with Lamar? -- This is now almost getting to be a legitimate concern. Here's something I asked on Twitter in the third quarter of yesterday's game. Is Lamar dealing with some sort of "Covid fog" or a related disorder that accompanies those recovering from Covid-19? Could that be an explanation for Jackson's uneven play this season? He just seems slow in the pocket and not able to make quick decisions that are necessary back there.
When did Lamar start holding on to the ball so long when pressure was closing in on him? Sunday was a graphic display of not seeing the field well. Now, granted, the Baltimore offensive line is really hurting and Jackson's not getting great protection overall, but he has been in the league since 2018. Lamar knows how to get out of trouble and make something out of nothing better than any QB in the league. But more and more this season, he's creating some of the problems for himself by not getting rid of the ball when he's under pressure.
Something just doesn't seem right with Jackson. He's thrown 8 inteceptions in the last 4 games, for starters. But there's more to it than that, even. He just doesn't look like the same QB who won the MVP award in 2019.
Where are the wide receivers? -- Lamar threw the ball more to his running back (Devonta Freeman) on Sunday than he did to any of his receivers. It's true. Freeman had 8 pass catching targets while Hollywood had 7, Watkins had 6, Duvernay had 3 and Rashod Bateman had 1.
Mark Andrews, needless to say, was the team leader in targets with 9. So let me get this straight. Lamar threw just as much to the combination of his tight end and running back (17 times) than he did to his wideouts (17 times between the four of them). I don't get that at all.
What has happened to Rashod Bateman? After starting out like the next coming of DeAndre Hopkins, Bateman has been strangely quiet over the last three games. There was one point in Sunday's game, during the 4th quarter, where Andrews ran a go-route and Lamar nearly hit him on a long 2nd down throw. Why wasn't Bateman running that route? Where are the deep balls for Hollywood Brown or Duvernay, even? It just seems weird to waste those guys and just rely on Andrews and Freeman to get receiving yards.
I get it. Lamar definitely feels most comfortable looking for Andrews on just about every throw. But at some point, the team's speedy wide receiving corps has to get involved on a more consistent basis.
If other defense coordinators have started to figure Lamar out, it's incumbent on the quarterback and Greg Roman to come up with a counter-plan. And quickly...
Brandon Williams helps the rush defense, but -- The Ravens allowed Pittsburgh just 85 yards of rushing yesterday which, you would think, would have led them to a victory. Alas, it didn't. But it's certainly good to see Brandon Williams back in the nose tackle position. He made 11 tackles on Sunday to lead the team, including 6 of the solo variety.
The key to winning last Sunday's game vs. Cleveland was Baltimore's ability to limit the Browns' rush attack. That accomplishment was mainly due to the return of Williams. If he stays healthy, the Baltimore defense should once again be difficult to run on. That's the good news.
There was potentially disastrous news on Sunday, as the Ravens have likely lost cornerback Marlon Humphrey for the rest of the season with some an arm injury. With Humphrey sidelined, Tavon Young will step in to full-time duty, which isn't all bad, but certainly represents a step down from the play of Marlon.
For all the talk about the Ravens offense failing to generate enough points and falling short on the game-tying two-point conversion, it's fair to point out that the Baltimore defense wilted down the stretch on Sunday. When they needed to make a stop in the 4th quarter, they simply couldn't do it.
Now, their reasonable excuse could be "we were on the field the whole 4th quarter", but the fact is the Ravens led 13-9 and needed one defensive series of excellence and they couldn't produce it.
In closing, we need to applaud Harbaugh and/or the Ravens coaching staff for a brilliant decision late in the game. With Pittsburgh driving for either the go-ahead field goal or touchdown, the Ravens instructed Chuck Clark to jump offsides and give the Steelers a free first down on the Baltimore 8-yard line. That move insured the Steelers couldn't get another first down and chew the clock down to the final seconds once the Ravens used all of their timeouts.
Perhaps other coaches around the league would have done the same thing. But it's worth mentioning here how smart that move was given where the Steelers were on the field and what they were trying to do with the final 2 minutes of the 4th quarter.
terps fall in manning's debut
The University of Maryland men's basketball team suffered their third straight defeat yesterday, losing their Big Ten opener to Northwestern, 67 to 61.
In what was a single point Wildcat lead with 4:32 left in the game, the Terps offense failed to deliver when it was needed most. Fatts Russell took four quick shots in four consecutive possessions, connecting on just one, as the Wildcats pulled away. Discounting Hakim Hart's uncontested gift bucket at the end of the game, the Terps failed to score from the field in the game's last 6:46.
As expected, Northwestern was paced by Paul Nance's 17 points and 16 from Boo Buie. Hart was the only Terp who looked like they had interest offensively, as he hit 7 of 10 shots from the field while producing 18 points for his team.
Maryland's offense had been anemic, but today's bizarre number were worse than that. Despite playing in their comfortable home arena, Maryland made just 7 of 36 shots inside the three point arc. That's just about 19%. They made just 4 of 15 layups. Yes, some were contested, but 4 of 15?
The individual numbers will make a fan shake their head in disgust. Russell and Ayala were 3 of 12 and 2 of 12 respectively. Donta Scott connected on just 2 shots in 11 attempts. The two Terrapin big men were equally ineffective, offensively. Both Qudus Wahab and Julian Reese hit just a single shot. Wahab took 5 shots while Reese took 6.
Some simple addition tells me that's a combined 9 for 46. Seventy percent of the Terrapin's game minutes produced just 9 made field goals on 19.5% shooting. You can't beat any Big Ten team shooting like that. I'll dive deeper into this a little bit later.
Maryland might have had a halftime lead had they not committed 6 turnovers during the last 4:22 of the first half. As it was, Northwestern scored the last 6 points of the half to forge a 3-point, 30-27 lead.
Bucking a recent trend, the Terps actually shot well from the three-point line, going 5-12 (41.7%). They outscored the Wildcats 15-9 from beyond the arc. However, as it would be for the entire game, scoring inside the arc was a real issue for Maryland. They made just 5 of 21 2-point shots (23.8%) and were outscored in the paint 18-8.
Perhaps the first half highlight for Maryland was the bucket that Marcus Dockery made at the 12:37 mark. Dockery was seldom used by former coach Mark Turgeon and received a loud round of approval upon his entry into the game. Unfortunately for Dockery, the Terps, and the fans, that bucket would end his highlight reel. His stats would show that while he was in the game, his team was minus 16 in points. That was the worst number in the game. He had a hard time playing defense, continually allowing his assignment to drive to their right hand for an easy bucket.
Hakim Hart was the offensive story for the Terrapins for the first 20 minutes. His 11-point production included a Richmond-game-like 3-4 from the three-point line.
To start the second half, Hart continued pacing the Terps by scoring his team's first 5 points. The first TV timeout in the second half came at the 15:16 and Maryland was still behind by 3, 40-37. However, things looked somewhat promising for Maryland as 5 team fouls had been charged to the Wildcats, and immediately following resumption of play another Wildcat foul would put the Terps were in the bonus for the game's final 15 minutes.
A 10-2 Wildcat run then forced Danny Manning to call a timeout with 12:03 remaining and Northwestern up 8, 47-39. Northwestern had hit 3 straight jumpers in a little over 1 minute to fuel the run. It worth noting that the Wildcat run occurred while the two Terp freshman, Dockery and Reese, were on the floor.
Maryland employed a zone defense for a few possessions in the second half, but the effectiveness of it was negligible. Northwestern hit three shots in a little over a minute, pushing their advantage to 9 points. At this point in the game, Ayala and Scott had combined to shoot 3 of 20.
With 4:32 left, Russell hit a three to narrow Northwestern's lead to 1. Northwestern would then answer with a short jumper. After two of Russell's misses, the Wildcats then poured in 6 points in 60 seconds. The lead was now 9 points with 1:45 left. Victory had been secured.
I don't know of many players who can drain a large percentage of off-balance, fading to side jumpers. I do know three that can't. Namely, Russell, Ayala, and Scott. If they desire to have even a modicum of success scoring from close range, they need to learn to go up straight. IF you need to fall away or go to either side just to get you shot off, that should be a clear indicator to forgo the attempt and get rid of the ball. Russell was the biggest offender, but Ayala and Scott were close on his heels.
Not that the Terps needed a reminder, but the Wildcats delivered a memo anyway. The visiting team had a go-to guy (Nance), and the Terps have nothing remotely close. Hart has knocked down 20 of 28 shots over the last four games (one reason why Turgeon called his number for a last second shot against Louisville), but you can't point to him as a go-to scorer when the game gets tight down the stretch.
I really thought that Ayala and Scott would score yesterday. I knew that both players would get plenty of open looks, but neither could buy a bucket. At least Scott grabbed a team high 9 rebounds. Ayala shot 2 of 12 and helped contribute to the loss by committing 6 turnovers. He looked uninterested.
The pre-game routine for both squads is to warm up for about 15 minutes and then return to the locker room for some last-minute instructions and some form of inspiration.
Yesterday, the path to my seat took me directly in front of both locker rooms while both teams were there. I passed directly in front of the Northwestern group first. I could hear every word of their loud cheerleading. They sounded fired up and ready to do battle with Maryland, lions, or Sir William Wallace.
I kept walking as the Wildcats entered the arena. I was then outside of the pin-drop silent Terp locker room. I stood there and observed after they exited the locker room and stood waiting for the signal to enter. They were a lifeless bunch without any signs of anxiousness of adrenalin. I could easily have read them wrong, but they looked sad. That's exactly how they shot the ball. Sad!
The team will get a one-week rest before taking on the 6-1 Florida Gators in the Barclays Center. Tip-off is 4:30 p.m. on Sunday, December 12.
| | #DMD GAME DAY | |
| | Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 4:25 PM EST Heinz Field Spread: Ravens (-4.5) |  |
pittsburgh's last gasp
There's nothing about this game in Pittsburgh today that concerns me as a Ravens fan. Well, except for one thing. Maybe even two things.
This afternoon's game really does represent the Steelers' last gasp in the '21 regular season. A loss today and their campaign is all but finished.
Oh, and a week ago today the Bengals ran the score up on them in Cincinnati to the tune of 41-10. I'm sure Mike Tomlin didn't mention that more than 45 times this past week in the Steel City.
There's your two things.
Under any normal circumstances, I'd be writing about a "cakewalk" and a "guarantee" and all that jazz. This Pittsburgh team isn't very good. And their quarterback's low fuel light is on. There's nothing about the game that worries me. Except...
This is their last gasp today. The schedule looming in front of them is daunting to say the least. That's why today's game is critical for Pittsburgh.
This Thursday night the Steelers are at Minnesota. Ten days later they host Tennessee. The following week they visit the Chiefs in Kansas City. Then they finish with a home game against Cleveland and a road game in Baltimore. Pittsburgh is 5-5-1 right now. A loss today and the best they can finish would be 10-6-1. Look through that imposing schedule and tell me where you find 10 wins if the Steelers don't win this afternoon.
Even if 9-7-1 got Pittsburgh into the post-season, find four wins for them in their remaining schedule if they fail to win this afteroon.
They're not winning nine games, guys. But if they somehow could win nine, one of them would have to occur today.
This game vs. the Ravens is virtually a must-win for Mike Tomlin's team, which is about the only reason it concerns me. The Ravens should romp today. But it's the Ravens and Steelers and Pittsburgh's oxygen tank has almost emptied. Oh, and Big Ben's arm is about to fall off. You know what that means, of course. He's liable to throw for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns.
So what do the Ravens need to do today at Heinz Field? The obvious answers:
Protect the football: Lamar has thrown 7 interceptions in the last 3 games. He hasn't played well at all in his last two outings. He doesn't have to be Joe Montana today, but he has to stop giving the ball to the other team.
Better in the red zone: In Lamar's MVP season, the Ravens were deadly in the red zone. This year, not so much. When given their red zone opportunities today, Lamar and the offense have to cash in with in six points instead of relying on Justin Tucker to do his thing.
No big plays: Throughout the Roethlisberger era, the Pittsburgh quarterback (10-3 vs. Baltimore at Heinz Field in the regular season) has seemingly saved his best performances for the Ravens' annual visit. To that end, he's routinely carved up the Baltimore secondary with big plays to his wide receivers. The Ravens need to protect themselves from that sort of development today and they'll be fine.
Strike first, keep up the pressure: Don't give the Steelers any reason to think they have a chance. The Baltimore offense hasn't been productive in the first half of games over the last six weeks. It's important for the Ravens to change that tune today and get ahead early.
As we saw last week in Cincy when the Bengals jumped out early, the Steelers don't have much fight in them once things go off the rails. That's why scoring early and getting ahead are critical for John Harbaugh's team today.
Nothing would surprise me today, though. I've seen enough crazy stuff in the NFL this year to know one thing for sure: nothing's guaranteed or "explainable". I don't see how Pittsburgh wins, but I didn't see the Dolphins winning in Miami last month, either.
The league's crazy. Roethlisberger's always played "up" against Baltimore in Pittsburgh. And the Ravens, as we know, haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire over the last three weeks.
Buckle up...
Given what you read above, you might be surprised that I think the Ravens will win this one fairly easily today. It might be close for a half, but the Steelers don't have the horses to negate Jackson and his skill set.
The Ravens lead 7-3 after the first quarter, then extend the advantage to 14-6 at the half on a late second quarter TD throw from Lamar to Mark Andrews.
Baltimore extends the margin to 21-6 midway through the third quarter after Tyus Bowser forces the ball out of Big Ben's hands deep in Pittsburgh territory. A Steelers field goal late in the third quarter cuts the deficit to 21-9.
The Ravens finish out the scoring with a Justin Tucker field goal with 5 minutes left and improve to 9-3 on the heels of a 24-9 win over the Steelers.
mahogany doors? why not, we can afford it
The door guy stopped by the beach house on Tuesday and wanted to know what sort of doors we wanted out front.
"I can do a standard door for about $600 or we can get our hands on a really sweet mahogany door for about $1,600. With installation, we're talking a total of about $2,400.
"Let's go with the mahogany door," I said. "I'm sure I'll be able to afford the upgrade after I buzz through this weekend's NFL slate."
So, mahogany it is.
Now, let's make sure we can afford all this fun.
CHARGERS AT BENGALS (+3.0) -- This one feels weird, because it seems like Cincinnati should actually be favored here, not an underdog. And my gut says the Chargers aren't flying east and beating an improving Cincinnati club. So that's why I'm going with the Chargers to cover the 3 points and win, 33-27. Don't ask me why I did that. I just have a feeling the Chargers are going to pull this one out.
GIANTS AT DOLPHINS (-6.5) -- Don't look now, but Miami is on a roll. They're not going to get derailed today by the Giants, are they? I don't think so. But I do think the Giants are going to hang in there long enough to cover the spread. We'll take the Giants and the 6.5 points as Miami wins 26-20.
COLTS AT TEXANS (+10.0) -- Indianapolis has to keep winning games, so today's trip to Houston comes at a great time. The Texans are only a couple of weeks removed from stunning the Titans in Nashville, but we don't see any similar result for them today, even at home. We're going with the Colts here in a bit of a romp, as they cover the 10 points in a 30-16 win.
JAGUARS AT RAMS (-12.5) -- OK, this should be a blowout, right? I mean, there's just no way the Rams don't win this one going away. I know they've been struggling recently, but they're playing Jacksonville. At home, no less. Everything says this should be a romp. Which means we should take the Jaguars and the 12.5 points. No, we're not doing that. The Rams win easily and cover the 12.5 points in a 36-10 win. We're going with L.A., friends.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS (-9.5) -- Is Denver for real? This one tonight will tell us. If they go into Kansas City and win, they're legit. The Chiefs, meanwhile, can't afford to stub their toe this evening. They need this one almost as much as Denver. We like Denver and the points here, believe it or not. We'll take the Broncos and the 9.5 as Kansas City wins 27-20.
BEST BET OF THE DAY: We'll go with the Rams giving Jacksonville 12.5 points. The Rams need a reversal of fortune and the Jaguars will provide just this afternoon.
SEASON TO DATE: 30-30
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 2-3
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 6-6
terps host northwestern today at noon
Before I get into my assessment of today's Maryland/Northwestern contest, I guess I need to address the 500-pound gorilla in the room.
By now I'm sure you are aware that Danny Manning is the interim coach and Mark Turgeon is gone. It's irrelevant whether Turgeon resigned or was fired, the fact remains that he is no longer coaching this team.
Getting booed at home after the loss to Virginia Tech may have been the last straw for both the coach and Damon Evans, the Maryland AD. I want to provide my take on coaching and recruiting, and hold your hats, it won't be popular.
The popular mantra around these parts about Turgeon is/was, "Good recruiter, bad coach". That's laughable.
First, let's tackle the fallacy that he was a bad coach. When it came to X's and O's, Turgeon was a decent coach. Not great, but not bad either.
Just because some fans are not capable of deciphering a change or adjustment, doesn't mean one wasn't attempted. Just last year, Turgeon retooled his whole offense to better suit his undersized team. They went on to gain an improbable bid to the NCAA Tournament, where they won a game before being drubbed by a much better Alabama team.
Another part of coaching is teaching your kids. Numerous times over the last 10 years I heard, "Turgeon never develops his talent. The kids never improve." I strongly disagree.
I attend almost every game, most of them from the media section right by the court. I also rewatch every game possible at least once. I slow motion various parts to see what's what defensively. The defensive improvement of players under Turgeon's tutelage is remarkable.
As an example, I'll use Darryl Morsell. He was very athletic as a freshman, but he was frequently out of position and sort of "lost". By his senior year he was the Defensive Player of the Year. Every player improved, depending on potential. Jared Nickens wasn't going to get better, Reese Mona did. Jalen Smith wasn't drafted after his freshman year. He got better.
Next, I want to address this notion of underachievement. Underachievement, as it applies to college basketball, is mostly an evaluation of the gap between how good the media says the team is, and how the team performs.
The coach of the team with the biggest gap, on the positive side, gets coach of the year. The coach with the biggest gap on the negative side gets blamed for his team's underachievement. Maybe, just maybe, the evaluations are wrong. That is especially so when it's the fans doing the evaluation.
Lastly, here's my take on the "great recruiter" part. Turgeon can't get enough quality players to come to Maryland. A quick glance at his current roster is a glaring indication. There are no shooters and a lack of athletes. Maintaining a constant flow of quality players is what sustains a winning program. This is where Mark failed.
Yes, he's had a few "hits", but his misses have been far more frequent. Turgeon's never had that stud point guard, and as a result, some of his better teams had turnover issues. A good barometer, and I do this every game, is to look at how many Terp players would start for the opponent. In the last two games, that combined number is "1", possibly. Turgeon, for whatever reason, couldn't assemble a championship contending roster in College Park.
The fans and donors have lofty expectations for Maryland basketball. That's a good thing. High expectations are almost always a precursor to success. There's no problem with that, but thinking that UMD is a top 15 basketball school, and should contend for a title every year, is a bit of a reach.
However, if that's the goal, then this program needs to first address why they can't attract enough top tier talent. That responsibility falls on the head coach, but sometimes there are factors in play beyond his or her control.
I understand the move, but I must confess to some disappointment. I wanted the guy to succeed, and he can't have that success if he's not here.
Now, on to Northwestern. If you watch today's game, you'll see a Chris Collins (former Dukie) led Northwestern team that isn't flashy but is fundamentally sound.
The Wildcats share the ball willingly and move it quickly. Their 19.6 assists per game attests to not only their passing skills, but also their ability to hit shots. As a team, they hit 46.4% of their field goal attempts and sport five players that make at least 40% of their 3-point ties. They are not unbalanced in their shot selection, ranking only in the middle of the Big Ten pack in 3 pointers attempted per game.
The Wildcat inside game is all about Peter Nance. The 6'10" senior center is Tim Duncan-like in his easy and fluid manner of the court. His shooting numbers are impressive. He's connecting on 52.8% of his field goals, 85% of his foul shots, and 45.5% of his threes. He also adds 3.4 assists per game from the center position.
For comparison's sake, Fatts Russell leads Maryland with 3.5. Nance is the Wildcat's leading scorer with 17.3, and he's their leading man on the boards with almost 8 rebounds a game.
If Northwestern has a 1-2 punch, Nance is the 1 and Boo Buie is the 2. Buie is a 6'2" junior guard who shoots more than any other Wildcat. He's another good foul shooter at 83%, but he's the poorest shooter among the starters from the three-point line. He hits 33% from beyond the arc. Buie has a solid burst, but he's nowhere near as mercurial as Maryland's Fatts Russell. Like his team, he is consistent without being too flashy.
One flaw of Buie's may be that his low percentage from the floor can be attributed to some ill-advised shots.
Coach Collins will frequently employ two big guys playing together. Nance will start and Robbie Beran will start along side him. Beran is 6'9" and 215. "Role player" is probably the best description of what he brings to this team.
Another "big" in the Wildcat rotation is Ryan Young. Young is a prototypical workhorse guy who doesn't venture far from the paint. Like most of his teammates, he's not flashy, and with his 6'10" 240-pound body, he's not a high flyer coming off of the bench. But when you check the stat sheet each night, you see that Young has 12 points in the paint.
Northwestern has played more zone this year compared to any other Terp opponent. A zone is not their base defense, but they frequently switch to it, especially on inbounds plays.
Maryland needs to do a better job fighting through, or slipping, screens. Northwestern's ball movement and screening opens up looks inside for the Wildcat frontcourt. This has been an issue for the Terps, mainly because of the lack of experience playing with one another. Northwestern will make you pay if you hesitate or miss an assignment.
I'll mention one more Wildcat, Ty Berry. Keep him away from the three-point line.
Let us now focus on Maryland. Boo Buie is dynamic, but he can't stay in front of Russell. Berry will get bodied up my Ayala, and (I almost hate to say this) Donta Scott should get the best of Robbie Beran or Young. Beran doesn't appear thick enough to check Scott and Young can be beaten of the dribble. Of course, that assumes those matchups materialize.
With Northwestern going long stretches with two big men, will Manning match that with Qudus Wahab and Julian Reese playing together? Will Hakim Hart see less time? Does Maryland have anyone better to take Hart's minutes?
Maryland is a four-point favorite today. Perhaps the oddsmakers are thinking that the betters predict extra Maryland effort today. Maybe the spread is reflective of the Terp advantages I outlined above.
Either way, look for a reversal of shooting numbers in this game. Maryland will hit more long-range shots today, and the Wildcats will shoot a bit under their usual percentages. It's the home court advantage for the season opening Big Ten game for these two teams.
I like Ayala today and I like Scott. 18 and 17 points respectively gives Maryland's new coach a 76-68 win.
#dmd comments
| Saturday December 4, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2659 |
forced or not, turgeon's tenure ends
OK, Danny Manning, let's see what 'ya got.
In one of the strangest moves, timing wise, in recent local sports history, Mark Turgeon packed up his stuff at the Xfinity Center yesterday and was no longer the Maryland basketball coach at day's end.
That's one way of putting it, I guess.
"Mutually agreed to part ways" was the terminology the school used.
Other headlines around the country painted a different picture.
"Mark Turgeon relieved of his duties at Maryland"
"Maryland fires Mark Turgeon"
"Turgeon resigns at College Park"
"Maryland pushes Turgeon out"
No matter what you choose to believe -- and the truth is, it sorta-kinda was a "mutual decision" -- the result doesn't change. Mark Turgeon's 10-year tenure at Maryland ended yesterday and Danny Manning is the interim head coach until the end of the season.
For his troubles and the embarrassment of getting canned a month into the season, Turgeon gets a $5 million check in his going-away gift basket. Not bad work if you can get it, I suppose.
And for his troubles, Manning inherits a team that has some quality pieces but needs an overhaul in their half court offense and their set plays. Whether he can turn water into wine between now and mid-March remains to be seen, but the reality is Manning probably can't do much worse than Turgeon was doing with this group. They're not a "bad" team. They just need a spark, perhaps.
Our limited sources on the story come from both the business side and the basketball community. One of our sources is a longtime corporate sponsor of UM athletics. They told #DMD on Friday there were whispers about a possible Turgeon buyout over the last 10 days or so but that they were never formally contacted by the university to ask for a donation or "kick in" to help fund the buyout.
That tidbit would lead one to believe that Turgeon's ouster was school-led and not booster-led. Maryland, the school, is coming up with the $5 million to send Turgeon off with a smile on his face. Boosters and sponsors were not asked to contribute.
Everything came to a head on Thursday afternoon.
Turgeon had apparently become very frustrated with the general "environment" at College Park. He was less than thrilled about the smaller-than-normal crowds at the start of the season. In particular, he was disappointed with the turnout at the George Mason game, which Maryland lost.
He was also not pleased with the early-season booing that was taking place at College Park. Turgeon felt like it was a distraction for the team and some of its younger players. A source told #DMD that Julian Reese was particularly bothered by it on Wednesday night after the loss to Virginia Tech.
Turgeon even mentioned the booing in his post-game remarks: "We know people are frustrated. We heard the booing. I get it."
Despite a contract extension last April, Turgeon was essentially told "The '21-22 season is very important for you in terms of your status at Maryland." Turgeon took that to mean his tenure would mostly be tied to success in the NCAA Tournament. He apparently didn't think it was fair to the high schoolers he was looking at to recruit them not knowing if his status was entirely safe at College Park.
A source told #DMD on Friday that Turgeon has, in fact, lessened his enthusiasm for recruiting over the last eight months.
Late Thursday, Turgeon and Athletic Director Damon Evans discussed Maryland's 5-3 start and the growing level of discontent from the fan base. The Maryland athletic department, like Turgeon, had become distressed about early-season attendance. Wednesday's crowd -- 1,500 no shows and a larger-than-normal influx of visiting fans -- was used as an example, evidently.
As a corporate source close to UM athletics said, "If they wouldn't have given away those Bias shirts on Wednesday, there would have been 12,000 people in the building and 3,000 of them were there to cheer for Virginia Tech."
During that Thursday meeting, Evans apparently reminded Turgeon of their discussion last April, where the subject of '21-22 goals and expectations was brought up. "If this doesn't turn around, we'll have to have a serious talk when the season's over."
"Would you all consider just buying me out now?" Turgeon asked.
One hour later, Turgeon's tenure was all but over. There was a discussion with his family, the involvement of his agent and the school's financial department, and the development of the carefully-worded press release. Once that was all done, Turgeon was gone.
There's little doubt that losing your longtime head coach 8 games into the season is potentially troubling. Maryland could certainly bottom out from here and wallow through a terrible campaign. That wouldn't be a shock in the least. Anytime the administration "punts" on the season like Damon Evans and Maryland have done, there's always a chance the players punt as well. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
The good news for Danny Manning is he probably can't lose in this situation. If Maryland shows any life at all and rebounds to have a good season, he's heralded as a hero.
If Maryland stinks it up in conference play, fizzles in the Big Ten tournament, and doesn't make or win a game in March Madness, everyone's going to blame Turgeon, not Manning. This will be, for better or worse, Turgeon's team at the end of the season if Maryland falls short.
And while Evans has said the school will conduct a national search for their new coach next April, what if Manning is just the spark this group needs? What if -- bear with me now -- Maryland has a solid Big Ten season, plays well in the conference tourney, and then wins two or three games in March Madness?
In other words, perhaps the next five months are going to serve as a live audition for Manning. Maybe Maryland's next coach is already right there in the building? Who knows...
Some names that #DMD heard on Friday all make sense and most of them have ties to either Maryland, Baltimore, Damon Evans or the DMV basketball community.
Mike Brey, now two decades at Notre Dame, who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland and has several close friends in Baltimore (all of whom could be significant contributors to UM sports).
Anthony Grant, the former VCU and Alabama head coach who is now at the University of Dayton. Insiders say Maryland is impressed with the way Grant built Alabama's program and he apparently developed some solid recruiting relationships in the DMV during his days at VCU.
Casey Alexander, now at Belmont, who first made a name for himself at Stetson. His 3-year record at Belmont is an impressive 55-12, including a recent win over Iona, who two night's earlier had defeated Alabama, the #7 team in the country.
Kim English, the 33-year old coach at George Mason who grew up in Baltimore and has deep ties still to the Charm City amateur basketball circuit.
There will be plenty of other names for Evans and the UM Board of Regents to consider next spring, of course, but those four were specifically referenced to #DMD on Friday.
In the end, while the timing was weird, Friday's announcement was probably the best thing for all parties involved.
Turgeon didn't want to coach or recruit with a "win or else" cloud over his head and who can blame him?
Maryland was well aware of the growing level of discontent for Turgeon and the program in general. The attendance, the internet, the radio show callers and Evans' e-mail inbox were all the evidence they needed.
The reality of the team's on-court issues was this: Turgeon was losing the team with every narrow victory and early-season defeat. Players, too, read the internet and listen to the input of family members and friends. Once the players give up on you, it's really, really hard to get them back.
Evans was faced with a very obvious dilemma. Either tell the fan base to pipe down and stand firmly behind Turgeon or cave in. He chose to cave in. And, honestly, it's probably not the wrong choice.
Turgeon knew it, too. It's hard to admit as a coach, especially when you've given your heart and soul to the program, but the time had come for a new voice in College Park.
So, on Thursday, the coach was faced with this scenario:
Stay the course, keep coaching the '21-22 team, make roughly $3.25 million for doing so, and endure the headaches and "environment" for the next five months, knowing all too well that anything short of two wins in the NCAA tournament would likely lead to your dismissal next April.
Take $5 million right now, save yourself from the misery and headaches, and move on with the next chapter of your life.
I don't know about you, but I'd be leaning in the direction of that $5 million check given what all was going on at College Park.
And that's what Turgeon chose as well.
He knew, barring a mini-miracle, he was going to be out next April. Why fight it? Get it done with now, collect the $5 million, and reboot for the '22-23 season somewhere else.
Mark Turgeon will get another job somewhere, assuming he wants one.
And Maryland basketball will still be Maryland basketball no matter what job Manning does over the next five months. It's still a good job that pays well and the Big Ten conference is attractive bait indeed.
It might take some time, but Turgeon and Maryland will both eventually propser from yesterday's news.
a 6-pack from "bet it all paul"
I've been on such a heater over the last month or so that I'm a little worried I'm due for a massive crash and burn weekend. But I have a number of plays I reallly like today, so here they are:
College hoops: St. Joseph's at Villanova -- I love the "under" first half total of 68 in this one. St. Joseph's knows the only way to win this one is to defend like crazy, which I think they'll do in the first 20 minutes. 'Nova leads at half 35-27 and the "under" cashes. We're throwing 100 coffee beans on this one, in case you're wondering about our level of interest.
College hoops: Clemson at Miami -- We love the Hurricanes and the first half spread of (-1). Miami leads at the half 38-33 and the (-1) number is met. We're liking this play a lot, to the tune of 200 coffee beans on Miami (-1).
College football: Georgia vs. Alabamba -- We're thinking this is major opportunity for a big cash in, as we really like Georgia (-6) in the SEC Championship Game and we're also heavy on the total and the "under" 49.5 points. Georgia is going to clobber the Crimson Tide, sports fans. Take Georgia and give the six points and play the "under" 49.5 as the Bulldogs make the big statement in a very easy 33-13 win. Play each of them for 200 coffee beans and add in another 100 coffee beans on the parlay (100 to win 320)
College football: Utah State at San Diego State -- This one is very attractive. We're loving San Diego State here giving up just 6 points. Hurry and get the wager in now before the line moves. 200 coffee beans.
NBA: Denver at NY Knicks -- We're playing hard on the Knicks (-1.5) here. Both teams are basically .500, but New York is improving and solid at the Garden. 200 coffee beans on the Knicks (-1.5).
NBA: Memphis at Dallas -- This is our "play of the day", as Memphis comes in having scored 152 points a few nights ago. We're going with the "under" total in this one, which is 218. We see a Dallas win here, something like 110-104 or 112-99. We're so excited about this one it's our 500 coffee bean favorite.
| Friday December 3, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2658 |
when, exactly, did this happen?
Yesterday was an interesting listen to the FM sports station in town.
As long as you weren't Mark Turgeon, that is.
I was able to check in at various points early in the morning and again in the late afternoon, and it was mostly "Bash the Coach" over and over. Show hosts and callers alike slashed and hacked away at Turgeon for his role in Wednesday's 4-point loss to Virginia Tech.
I didn't hear every caller throughout the day, of course, but in the time I listened, no one -- not a host or caller -- took the occasion to mention the tap-in lay-up Julian Reese missed with a minute remaining when Maryland trailed by three points. Nor did they mention a missed open look by Eric Ayala seconds before the crucial Reese gaffe.
But everyone pounded relentlessly on Turgeon.
Mike Locksley has been hearing it too, even though he inherited a disastrous situation in College Park. The program has improved under him, albeit perhaps more slowly than some expected, but there have still been some embarrassing home losses during his tenure. To hear people speak and write about him, though, you'd think Maryland's 0-12 instead of 6-6.
Over the years, the same sort of treatment has been thrown at John Harbaugh, Greg Roman, Wink Martindale, Dean Pees, Marc Trestman, Cam Cameron and virtually every other coach the Ravens have employed.
No one in town really cares if the Orioles win or lose and half the city doesn't even know Brandon Hyde is the manager, but he has also been smashed and bashed over the last three years...even with the reduced-quality roster he's been given.
And as I heard the afternoon hosts on the FM station burn Turgeon to a crisp on Thursday, it really made me stop and think: When did all of this happen?
By "this", I mean, when did this infatuation with blaming the coach/coaches become all the rage?
I'm not bringing this up today to indirectly ask for more Turgeon or Locksley bashing. Or Harbaugh bashing. Or Roman or Wink bashing. Save that stuff for some other time. And rest assured there are definitely occasions when questioning the coach is fair and legitimate. When Maryland got shellacked by Iowa earlier this season, it was fair to ask if Locksley had his team ready to play. Harbaugh himself said after the Miami fiasco a few weeks ago: "I didn't have them ready."
But, today, at least, I'm not wondering about the coaching accumen of Harbaugh or Turgeon or Locksley. I'm asking a different question.
When did this shift occur, where the coaches are apparently responsible for everything that happens and the players now get reduced liability? At what point did nearly everything that happens in a game become the direct responsibility of the coach?
On Wednesday night with 0:17 remaining, Maryland had the ball with a chance to tie the game. Turgeon said afterwards, "We either wanted a quick two, if it was there, or we'd quickly re-set and go for a three to tie it."
He knew Virginia Tech would screen Donta Scott out of the play and he also had to assume that Tech would give Hakim Hart some space because they wanted the ball to go to Hart. So I'm sure Turgeon or one of his assistants said to Hart as the huddle broke, "The ball's probably going to get to you initially. If you can't find someone down low for two, look for Donta or Eric for the three."
And what happened? Hart got the ball on the inbounds pass and promptly threw up a wild three point shot that missed the bucket. Game over.
That most certainly couldn't have been the play they drew up in the huddle. Oh, and let's not forget the ball was "live" after the miss and Virginia Tech rebounded it, got fouled, and salted the game away at the foul line seconds later. Someone from Maryland could have rebounded that Hart miss. But they didn't. Somehow that's also the coach's fault.
Sometimes a guy panics and takes a 3-pointer when that wasn't really the play and the shot misses. Sometimes the ball is in the air and the other team rebounds it. It's sports. Things like that happen. The. Other. Team. Is. Also. Trying. To. Win.
Last Sunday night, Lamar Jackson made two incredible throws to Mark Andrews that shifted the momentum of the game. On both occasions, it looked as if Jackson was on the verge of being tackled for a lengthy loss, but the 4th year quarterback avoided the pressure and made two throws to Andrews -- one was the acrobatic catch at the 13 yard line and the other was the touchdown reception a minute or so later.
Here, in Baltimore, we lauded the quarterback for his ability to make that play. We gushed at the greatness of Andrews. Here, in Baltimore, we saw the whole play through the lens of our players and their abilities.
Did the people in Cleveland blame those two plays on the team's coaches? I don't know the answer. I'm asking the question. Did they?
Because, it strikes me, that's precisely what happens these days. In Baltimore, the players in black made a play. In Cleveland, the coaches suck for allowing Jackson and Andrews to connect on those two plays.
Every little thing that happens in the game is not the fault of the coach. Or the players. It's just not.
But somehow, over the last few years here in town, every time a player fails it gets blamed on the coaching staff.
When Lamar Jackson has a bad game, it's Greg Roman's fault.
When the Raiders or Bears tie the game on their final offensive series, it's Wink Martindale's fault.
When Julian Reese misses a lay-up that he made in his sleep at St. Frances, it's somehow Turgeon's fault.
When Branden Jennings decides to transfer, "Locksley must have been driving that kid crazy", someone said on the radio yesterday.
When Fatts Russell throws the ball to Qudus Wahab and it bounces off the big man's hands, that one also gets blamed on Turgeon.
The coaches these days get all of the blame. For everything. And it wasn't always that way.
As I've noted here throughout the years -- and I'd routinely say this during my days on the radio, too -- it seems like the players get the credit when things go well and the coaches get the blame when things go haywire. It's as if your team is just supposed to win if they do all the things they're built to do. Meanwhile, people seem to forget the other team stays up until midnight all week trying to figure out how to stop you from doing those things.
If everyone's destiny was to win every game, no one would ever lose. - Jean Paul Sartre.
When did it change?
Sports talk radio? Fantasy sports? Is that what did it? Are those two things the problem?
The internet? Social media? More opinions? A gazillion podcasts? Talking heads everywhere? Is that what has contributed to it?
I'm also wondering if there's any way at all that this is a "Baltimore" thing. I mean, I don't get around to every other city in the country so I have no way of knowing. Are the folks in Charlotte, Nashville, Cleveland, Kansas City and Denver as nuts as we are in Baltimore? I don't know. That's why I pose the question. Maybe it's just us.
Editor's note: That quote from Sartre above? That wasn't really from him. I'm just making sure you're paying attention.
I saw on the internet last week where someone was roasting John Harbaugh for the lack of playing time for running back Ty'Son Williams. I'm paraphrasing here, but the commentary went something like this: "Williams is the team's best running back and yet Coach Harrible won't play him. We'd be much better with Williams getting the ball 25 times a game. But no, Coach Harrible has to do things his way."
Now I don't know much, but I know this: John Harbaugh spends more time with, thinking about, and around the Baltimore Ravens than anyone on the entire planet. Think about that. It's true. On this entire big ball of whatever-it-is that we live on, no person is more "in tune" with the Baltimore Ravens than John Harbaugh. And yet, somehow, this person calling in from Towson (and it's not just one...there are a lot of folks who think they know more than Harbaugh) believes he knows more about Ty'Son Williams than the head coach of the team.
I overheard someone on Wednesday night wondering why Mark Turgeon wasn't playing Ian Martinez more. "He should be getting 25 or 30 minutes a game. Another kid Turgeon's going to waste," the guy said to a friend.
Martinez, by the way, played 10 minutes on Wednesday, went 0-4 from the field, had 2 rebounds and 1 steal. He was, for the most part, a non-factor.
It struck me as I overheard the guy yapping about Martinez that he -- the critic -- has never once seen Ian Martinez practice. Never. Mark Turgeon has seen Ian Martinez practice something like, what, maybe 100 times?
And, yet, somehow, this fan in the stands believes he knows that Martinez should be playing 25 or 30 minutes when the coach, the guy who sees Martinez in person every single day doesn't see it that way. And who is right? The doofus? Or the coach?
Maybe Martinez doesn't work hard enough in practice. Maybe he hasn't mastered the weak side screen just yet. Maybe the coaches picked up a flaw in his shooting motion and they're working to fix it before the Big Ten season, when his presence will really matter.
I have no idea why Martinez doesn't play more but I know this: If he should be playing more, Turgeon and Matt Brady and the rest of the staff would be playing him more.
Again, I'm not asking for a critique of Harbaugh or Turgeon and I'm not looking for opinions on Ty'Son Williams and Ian Martinez.
I'm asking when -- and how -- did this all change? 5 years ago? 10 years ago? 20 years ago?
I feel like the internet is mostly to blame. The world has changed so much since 1995 or so. And it's the internet that kick-started all of this crazy talk.
This, of course, is not to say that coaches and the coaching staff don't have jobs to do and that they shouldn't be above critique. They should be evaluated, no doubt.
But at some point in a game -- in any sport, at any level -- the players have to do the job they're assigned to do. They do it well and the team wins or they don't do it well and the team loses. And let's also not forget a player can do his job well and the team might still lose. That also happens.
John Harbaugh probably doesn't play Ty'Son Williams because he feels like it increases his team's chances of losing if he sees significant playing time. I can't imagine there's ever a moment -- EVER -- where John Harbaugh says to himself, "You know what I think I'll do today. I'll play a couple of guys I really shouldn't play and hope we get our asses kicked." Every player Harbaugh plays is inserted with the intent of helping the team win.
For all of Turgeon's flaws, the one thing he doesn't do is try to lose. He plays who he plays because he thinks that gives Maryland the best chance to win.
Anyone in the stands or watching at home who thinks they know more than John Harbaugh is a fool. And the same goes for anyone who thinks they know more about the Maryland basketball roster than Mark Turgeon. You don't know anything about Maryland and their practices and the player's strengths and weaknesses. You're not there.
But somehow, in 2021, everything is about the coaches. And if for some bizarre reason you think I'm overamplifying that point -- that everything is about the coaches -- just read the internet after a Ravens or Terps game or listen to talk radio after a Ravens or Terps game. You'll see how true it is.
It's all become really, really weird.
I always love (well, not really, but bear with me while I make a point) seeing Bill Belichick get the Super Bowl trophy and having Jim Nantz or Joe Buck say to him, "Well, Bill, another championship...how did you guys do it this year?"
Belichick always says, "We have great players here."
I'm sure Belichick knows, in his gut, that coaching matters. And I'm sure enjoys his slice of praise when it comes along. But I also think he's totally sincere when he says, "We have great players." The players do the job. Or they don't. They're not 100% responsible, but they are mainly responsible for the outcome of virtually every game, in every sport.
When did it all fall apart? That's what I'm trying to figure out. When did the people paying for a ticket suddenly become smarter than the folks they're paying to see?
Today's edition of "Faith in Sports" takes us to an awesome Christian ministry series called "I Am Second", which features short 5 or 10 minute visits with athletes, celebrities and the like.
You'll hear from former Texas Tech running back Baron Batch, who shares an awesome story about his faith journey and how his road in life changed due to an injury. This is 6 minutes and 51 seconds of greatness. I'd love for you to give less than 7 minutes of your day today to watch it. Batch's story is memorable.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment.
| Thursday December 2, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2657 |
so i got to thinking...
Before I get into the meat of this topic today, let me first say I realize this is potentially an emotional story for you to properly evaluate.
And I'll also admit my position could be influenced by my age and some of my "old school" tendencies. There are some things, after all, that we simply pick up over time and never really release. I'm more than willing to say, from the start, that my thoughts about the Len Bias ceremony last night might very well be in the minority. I get that.
I was in attendance in College Park last night for the Maryland-Virginia Tech game. Our #DMD basketball analyst, Dale Williams, was also there on Wednesday evening and he'll go through the game in great detail in his piece below. My 50-word summary? Virginia Tech has a number of players on their team who would be starters at Maryland. The Terps don't have anyone that would start in Blacksburg. You can go to Dale's piece for the rest of the in-depth stuff from last night's loss.
Back to the subject at hand, which was last night's honoring of Len Bias.
I found it all very strange. My first thought, frankly, was this: "Why did it take 35 years to make this happen?" That in and of itself seems odd now. 35 years to honor one of the greatest players in school history? It just seemed weird, timing wise.
I'm not saying Maryland was wrong for honoring Bias. I assume they did it last night, in part, because of his recent induction into the College Basketball Hall of Fame. It made sense.
I'm well aware of Len Bias and his career contributions at Maryland. There is no disputing whatsoever that he is one of the greatest players to ever play at College Park. His legacy, on the court, should always be remembered and honored.
But what about his untimely, unfortunate death? Did Maryland ever consider that when they initiated plans to honor him at last night's game?
Or is the legacy of what Len Bias did on the court always going to overshadow the terrible way his life came to an end? That might very well be it.
The athletic department distributed 4,000 "Bias 34" jerseys (which looked great, by the way) prior to the game and most of them, as I saw it, were put in the hands of students. None of those young men or women ever saw Bias play basketball, of course. All they have to go on are the highlights that are displayed at home games.
As I watched it all unfold last night, and saw the halftime ceremony (which was very well done), and the students sporting their "Bias 34" jersey(s), I wondered if Maryland was at all concerned about honoring an athlete who died of a drug overdose?
Please note: I don't know the answer to this question. I'm not suggesting that Maryland didn't even consider it. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn't. I'm wondering, out loud, if the way Bias died was simply swept under the rug or did Maryland's athletic department spend time talking it over until a decision was made to organize the night of honor?
It also seems somewhat logical to consider this: Perhaps Maryland felt a little squeamish in the past about honoring Bias given the nature of his passing and they decided, after all this time, that 35 years was appropriate "distance". If that's the case, I understand.
I mean, let's be honest about this. Given what Bias did for Maryland basketball, it doesn't seem logical to wait 35 years to honor his legacy. So there must have been some reason why it took this long. At least that's what I think.
Ray Rice lost his job in the NFL because he hit a woman. He didn't just get suspended for a few games or half-a-season. He didn't get cut by the Ravens only to get picked up by the Jets or Eagles the following year. He lost his job, forever, because of one moment in time. It was one awful, terrible decision, but it was one moment in time.
It's doubtful the Ravens will ever put Ray Rice in their Ring of Honor. There's probably a legitimate argument that his on-field play might not make him worthy of that honor anyway, but it seems unlikely he'll ever be selected nonetheless. And the reason? He struck a woman. Whether I agree with the "punishment" Rice has received, or not, one thing is clear. His actions created all of the follow-up he's endured.
I bring up Rice to simply compare the two situations. A drug overdose. And domestic violence. And last night got me to thinking.
"What's the difference?"
"Is there a difference?"
If Maryland can forgive and honor Len Bias, can't the Ravens forgive and honor Ray Rice?
I wouldn't go as far as saying last night's honorary event for Bias felt "forced" by Maryland, but it definitely felt kind of weird to me. And I'll repeat, for those looking to pounce, that it might of felt weird to me but not weird to the other 17,500 people in the building.
It could be me, in other words.
Maybe no one else in the building felt it a little strange that Maryland would go the lengths they did last night to honor someone who lost his life due to a drug overdose.
This is not meant, in any way, to identify Len Bias as a "bad guy". People make mistakes. Unfortunately, on rare occasions, those mistakes can take a life away.
I asked a friend who was at the game with me last night, "How many of the 4,000 students who are here tonight know how Len Bias died?" He replied, "Not very many of them..."
Perhaps it's better that way.
Maybe the Bias legacy lives on the further down the road we go and the further away we get from June 19, 1986.
It's a cruel juxtaposition. You want the career of Len Bias to live on forever, but you don't want the students to know too much more about him. Or do they even care about the details of his death? I think a lot of us cared in 1986 when Len Bias passed away, and I think we thought his death was a horrible, horrible tragedy.
The kids at last night's game weren't even a twinkle in their parent's eyes in 1986. Most of those students at the game were born sometime around 2003. Heck, they never even saw Juan Dixon play a game, let alone Len Bias.
I saw someone on Twitter last night opine that last night would have been a good opportunity for Maryland to somehow promote the dangers of cocaine at the game. I think that's probably always a good message to send to college students, but I'm not sure that would have been appropriate last night given the circumstances of Bias' death.
As I noted in the first sentence above, this is most certainly a highly charged and emotional topic, especially for ardent fans of the University of Maryland who are likely not prone to such critiques of things like honoring Len Bias. I get it. There are probably some figures at Maryland -- athletically and academically -- who are "hands off" from any sort of criticism. Bias might very well fall into that category given his on-court accomplishments.
I'm not trying to say Maryland was wrong for honoring Len Bias last night, because I don't know if they were wrong. I haven't figured it out yet. I think the Ravens and the NFL were/are wrong for kicking Ray Rice to the curb the way they did, though, and that's where I find myself wondering about Maryland's intentions last night with Bias.
It felt weird. But perhaps it was the right thing to do after all.
I just don't know...
And I keep reminding myself that for as weird and strange as it felt watching the school honor Len Bias, it could have just been me that felt that way.
After Sunday night's odd, yet thrilling victory over the Browns, I thought it a good time to take a look at the Ravens defensive performance this season.
I will admit, like Drew, I thought the Browns would win Sunday. The strength of the Browns is their offensive line and their running backs. Given the Ravens injury issues and the struggles they have had all season with tackling in space, I thought the game set up as a tough one for the local team. In fact, a friend posted on Twitter that he thought the Ravens would win handily. I replied disagreeing with it. If Lamar plays even average, it looks like he was much more prescient than I.
I've mentioned previously that I don't dive too deep into some of the more obscure analytic metrics generally. I enjoy some of the easier to digest concepts like 4th down decisions and only occasionally dip my toe into EPA discussions and the like. But for purposes of a year to date recap, I decided to look into a few of the measurements and see where the Ravens actually stack up defensively relative to the rest of the league.
And in doing so...boy it's a little all over the place. Not surprisingly the team's statistics reveal a pretty good group against the run but fairly average (at best) against the pass. Some of these statistics are really hard to make sense of but let's give it a shot. I'll start with some of the more traditional measurements and then venture into more nuanced stats:
Yards --
Pass Ranking: 30th
Run Ranking: 2nd
Total Ranking: 16th
This probably makes some sense at least by my eye test. The Ravens have faced the fewest defensive snaps through the first 11 games (I have normalized this to a per game snap total since 8 teams have played 12 games). So even though the Ravens have given up the 2nd fewest yards on the ground they only rank 10th in rushing yards per attempt. Still solid but not quite as solid as the raw yards allowed would indicate. I'll hit on the passing yardage a bit later.
Points --
Ravens are currently 9th in points per game allowing 21.8. Points as a defensive metric is a bit of a flawed measurement as it doesn't factor in opponent's starting field position or defensive/special teams scores. Oddly, the Ravens are one of only 2 teams with a fumble recovery scored against them, a pick 6 against them and a kick return for a touchdown against them. The only other team with this dubious triumvirate...Jacksonville.
3rd Down Efficiency --
This one surprised me a bit. The Ravens have given up the fewest first downs via the run...by a solid margin. And they have given up the 3rd fewest first down in total. Not surprisingly, they lead the league in defensive 3rd down conversion giving up a first down on only 30.5% of attempts. Only 3 other teams (Dallas, Arizona and Buffalo) allow less than 35% conversion rate.
Turnovers --
If it seems as though the Ravens have struggled in creating turnovers, well your sense is correct. They are tied for 28th in takeaways with only 10 thus far. For perspective, there are 5 teams that have 20 or more takeaways led by the Colts with 27 (they have played 12 games). The Ravens have the 5th lowest percentage of defensive series that end with a turnover.
Now there is a bit of luck and variance in turnovers. Fumbles go out of bounds or fall perfectly into the offensive players hands. Easy interception opportunities are dropped like Chuck Clark the other night. I don't think it's as easy as just saying out loud "we need to create more turnovers". I mean sure, of course, turnovers are critical but for that to happen the opponent needs to make some sort of mistake AND your team needs to capitalize on that mistake.
Sacks/Pressures --
We've all lamented the lack of sacks and QB pressures the Ravens have been able to generate. They went out and used a first round pick this past April to address that need and added Justin Huston to the roster during training camp. And yet, the numbers don't really back up that this is a problematic issue. Ravens rank squarely in the middle of the pack at 15th in total sacks with 25.
But to the analytics community sacks are simply a result of pressures. Consistent pressure is more predictive of future sacks and disruptions than looking at raw sack numbers in previous games. And in the pressure game, the Ravens rank quite well. They rank 5th in QB Pressures per dropback. This measure is a sum of QB hurries, QB knockdowns and QB sacks. The latter two are obvious and hurries are defined as plays that require the QB to throw the ball earlier than intended or force him out of the pocket.
Blitzes --
Of course, part of the reason they do create so much pressure is because Wink likes to blitz...a lot. The Ravens are 3rd in blitz percentage per dropback with nearly 35% of opponent dropbacks facing a blitz. If one saw the Ravens-Dolphins game, it's unsurprising to see Miami is 2nd in this category, fractionally behind Tampa. For reference, Wink blitzed on over 50% of drop backs in 2019. Simply a staggering percentage and clearly his default defensive methodology.
Yards After Catch (YAC) --
Here is where we start to see cracks in this year's defense. Ravens have given up the 2nd most YAC on pass plays this year. I guess this shouldn't be surprising. When your strategy is to blitz so much you inevitably leave the secondary in one on one situations. Missed tackles in space lead to extra yards and that has been a problem this year. Although it seems much worse, Baltimore has only missed the 13th most tackles this season. I honestly expected them to be much higher.
Success Rate --
One of the analytical measurements used as an overall measure of defensive performance is success rate. Success rate measures the offensive efficiency in gaining first downs. Basically a play is defined as a "Success" if the offense gains 50% of the yards to gain on first down, 70% of the yards to gain on second down and 100% of the yards to gain on third and fourth down. Obviously from a defensive perspective, the lower that percentage the better.
Currently, the Ravens are 2nd only to Buffalo in defensive success rate. Oddly, they are consistently high in both success rates on running plays and dropbacks. Given their poor pass defensive performance described above this indicates they have given up a lot of big plays and chunk yardage plays. This is proven by the fact that they have given up the most "explosive plays" defined as plays of 20+ yards.
Analysis --
To be honest, the Ravens are more solid across the board than I expected on defense. It's clear that pass defense is the achilles heel. It also appears that they are solid down to down but are simply giving up too many big plays. This is a function of Wink's play calling style and health of the roster. Key injuries and inexperience in the secondary have taken their toll. It feels like they are getting better but, of course, the last three opponents, Miami, Chicago and Cleveland, have awful QB play.
Going forward they have games against an elite QB (Rodgers), an up and comer (Burrow), two older but still dangerous (??) veterans (Rothlisberger 2x and Stafford) and another game against Baker Mayfield in 2 weeks coming off a bye. In addition, they face arguably the best WR in the league in Devante Adams, a rookie that already thrashed them this year (Chase) and strong receiving corps in LA and Pittsburgh.
It seems like a pretty tough stretch with a lot of pressure being put on the struggling secondary. A healthy Jimmy Smith, Chris Westry and Anthony Averett plus the safeties will be critical. And although he hasn't been quite as well this year, an injury to Marlon Humphrey might be too much to handle for the depleted group.
It will be interesting to see how Wink schemes up Cincinnati and Green Bay particularly. They both seem to have the perfect recipe for beating the Ravens. An extremely accurate QB, several strong physical receivers and a massive tight end.
Overall, the Ravens defense does seem to be rounding into something of a form. Patrick Queen appears to be developing into a missile at linebacker and Tyus Bowser looks like the latest incarnation of the "swiss army knife" defender in the mold of Matthew Judon.
If they can continue to play solidly against better competition they should be well positioned entering the playoffs. But the depleted team simply can't afford any more injuries. A rash of any more injuries could be the end of any run for this team.
I've been following the college football coaching carousel fairly closely as my team (Virginia Tech) was a player in their own search. I'm not sure I've seen a year with so many named programs and coaches switching. Here is a list of prominent programs that have had open head coaching positions at some point this year:
LSU, Florida, USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Washington, TCU, Texas Tech, Washington State and Duke.
There are rumors that Josh Heupel (Tennessee) could bolt for Oklahoma and Manny Diaz is on shaky ground in Miami. So clearly the dominoes have not stopped falling.
The amount of money being thrown around is staggering but not surprising. Football brings in MASSIVE dollars particularly in the Power 5 conferences. Football (and to a lesser extent basketball) fund many entire athletic departments and allow schools to have wrestling teams, cross country teams and, yes, even lacrosse. So getting the coach right and setting a team up for future success is incredibly critical.
My hunch based on absolutely nothing but my gut: Lincoln Riley will absolutely crush at USC. All the tools are there in southern California, it's a beautiful campus with incredible facilities and Riley has been a pipeline to the NFL. Plus the Pac 12 should be easier to win in than either the Big 12 or Oklahoma's next landing spot, the SEC. In the new college environment with name, image and likeness deals, a star player would be hard pressed to find a better market to be in than Los Angeles. I expect great recruiting, winning records and possibly national championship contention in relatively short order at USC.
As for Brian Kelly, I don't really like this move for LSU. He seems to be a prickly sort and the fans and media at LSU will expect nothing less than their Tigers playing for National Championships. While at Notre Dame, Kelly had a far easier schedule than he will running through the SEC gauntlet. Notre Dame consistently plays the likes of Navy, Stanford, Boston College, at least one MAC program and a rotating menu of fairly pedestrian ACC programs. While LSU certainly has some cupcakes every year, they have Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M and Auburn most years. Oh and they have to play in a SEC Championship game, most likely, to realize their goal. Far tougher road to hoe than Notre Dame.
Time will tell on which hires were the best. But given the amount of money and the length of these contracts, it seems inevitable fans of these teams will look back wondering why their administration made the hire it did.
On Tuesday, Drew retweeted a ridiculous QB ranking by some political type. The list was so bad the author should be embarrassed. In response, Drew said he was going to post his own version of the top 15 QBs so I decided to do the same. This is the list of top 15 QB I would want to finish THIS SEASON. I only factored in this season's performance along with projected performance for remainder of the season and playoffs.
I'll confess I didn't put much research into this. Just looked at a few stats and metrics and threw this together. Here we go:
Tom Brady -Everytime I watch the Bucs play he seems in total control of the offense. 44 years old--hard to believe.
Aaron Rodgers -In spite of outing himself as a bit of doofus this season, he is still balling.
Kyler Murray -Health seems to be the only thing holding him back and he has some serious weapons out in Arizona.
Pat Mahomes -Not his best season but seems to be rounding into form. I'm not counting him out.
Lamar Jackson -This team would be vying for a top 5 pick if it weren't for Lamar.
Josh Allen - Reverted to his 2019 form a bit but still will be a tough out in January.
Joe Burrow -Dude is accurate and seems to have a nice group of receivers including an absolute stud in Chase.
Dak Prescott -Runs that team very well. Been a bit more inconsistent than in the past but love his game.
Justin Herbert -Talk about hot and cold. One week he looks like the best QB in the game and the next...not so much.
Matt Stafford - A few weeks ago I would have ranked him higher I think. Once Robert Woods went down he hasn't been as sharp.
Derek Carr - Hardest one to rank for me. With all going on there in Vegas his job will be tough the remainder of the season.
Ryan Tannehill - Had the rug pulled out from him the last few weeks. Prior to all those injuries he was playing fairly well.
Kirk Cousins - I'd probably never trust him. Just makes a lot of bonehead plays seemingly with the game on the line.
Mac Jones - I think the narrative around him has gotten a little out in front of him. He is certainly VERY accurate but early in the season he wasn't doing much at all. All that said, I probably am under ranking the rookie here.
Carson Wentz - Plays great in stretches and then inexplicably will throw a left handed pass or throw one up for grabs from his own end zone.
Up and comer: I think Jalen Hurts is an interesting QB. In the right system, similar to the Ravens, I think he could be very efficient.
terps fall at home to hokies
In college hoops, if you get outscored 27-3 from the three-point line, you are almost guaranteed to lose. That happened last night when Maryland shot 1 for 13 from the three-point line and lost to Virginia Tech, 62-58. The Hokies, as advertised, shot well from the three-point line, going 9 for 20, including connecting on 4 of their last 5. The long ball was the difference maker.
Keve Aluma led Tech with 17 points, Justin Mutts had 16 and Hunter Cattoor scored 12. All of Cattoor's points were threes, as he went 4 for 7. Maryland was led by Qudus Wahab's 18 points, (14 in the first half) followed by Donta Scott with 11 and Hakim Hart with 10.
A spirited and fairly evenly played first half ended with Virginia Tech holding a slight 2-point lead, 31-29. The two teams took very different routes to their point totals. The Hokies knocked down 5 three pointers to account for 15 of their 31 points, while 10 of the Terps 13 field goals came in the paint. Qudus Wahab made 6 of those buckets (on 6-7 shooting) along with 2 foul shots to get his 14 first half points. Donta Scott was the only Terp to hit a three and he finished the half with 7 points.
The Terps raced off to an early 5-point lead, 8-3, but some sloppy ballhandling stalled the offense and Virginia Tech was able to quickly close that gap with 5 straight points. After that, neither team could gain much of an advantage as the defensive intensity dictated play. The Terps were most effective, offensively, when they pounded the ball down low to Wahab. The Hokies hit 5 triples and also scored 8 second-chance points off of 7 offensive rebounds.
For the half, the Terrapins amassed 9 turnovers against just 2 assists. Maryland, again was outrebounded on the offensive boards, 7-3, but their 13-9 advantage on the defensive glass gave each team 16 rebounds for the half.
The second half started with shoddy shot selection by Va. Tech and real good defense by Maryland. The combined result of those two factors was an almost eight-minute drought from the field for the Hokies. Meanwhile, Maryland was finally distributing ball well, and scoring. After getting just 2 assists in the entire first half, the Terps had 3 in the first 4:39 of the second half.
A Fatts Russell layup gave Maryland a 37-33 lead with 15:50 remaining. A Julian Reese follow up dunk would stretch the Terp advantage to 43-36. Some of the best Terrapin defense of the year, reminiscent of some of last year's efforts, played a key role in the Hokies making just a single field goal during the second half's opening 8 minutes.
A three-pointer by Cattoor brought the Hokies to within three, 43-40, with 9:57 left in the game. Virginia Tech would score again on a tip-in, closing the gap to just one point. An "and one" for Reese, again pushed the Terp lead to 4 points. However, seven consecutive points by the Hokies gave them a 3-point lead that they would never relinquish.
The final Terp hopes were dashed when, with 20 seconds remaining, Russell knocked the ball out of Mutts' hand as he was driving along the baseline on the left side. The ball went in, never touching the rim. From my seat in the arena, it looked like an incredibly athletic play by Mutts. In reality, replay would show that it was pure luck which gave the Hokies a three-point lead with only 20 seconds to play.
The Terps could have tied the game, but Hart dead bricked a three. Tech would then go to the foul line, hitting 1 of 2, making the final score 62-58.
Maryland played hard last night. Their defense was solid, even though they got beat from the three-point line too often. They had a poor shooting night, even by their own standards, and foul trouble limited Wahab in the second half. Honestly, he looked like he was running out of gas anyway and that could have led to his foul trouble.
The Terps were better on the boards tonight, but Virginia Tech's starting five isn't very big.
As I said after the Louisville game, college hoops is mostly about "Athletes and shooters". The Terps don't have enough of either, and it cost them again in Wednesday's loss to their former ACC rivals.
Maryland will begin their Big Ten regular season this Sunday when Northwestern comes to College Park. BTN will broadcast the noon tip-off.
| Wednesday December 1, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2656 |
ranking the qb's...the right way
Some goof named Nick Adams, verified on Twitter as someone who supposedly knows what he's talking about, posted a list on Tuesday that was so incredibly "off" that I had to dive right in.
Come to find out, Adams doesn't actually know anything about American sports. He's an Australian by birth and is somehow now a political expert in this country. I have no idea how that happened or if it's even true, but that's what the internet says about him. Anyway, none of that is really important, because his presentation of a Top 15 NFL Quarterbacks list on Tuesday was so bizarre that we can immediately dismiss him as someone who actually knows the NFL.
So this, today, isn't about shouting down Nick Adams. He's a goof. But yesterday's list did get me to seriously contemplate who are the best quarterbacks in the NFL and how would I rank them 1-to-15. Our buddy "Stats Nerd" reached out to me mid-day yesterday and said he was also going to take a poke at the list in his piece that will run here tomorrow.
So, I have not yet opened his column in my e-mail inbox and will type my list here first...then add his list tomorrow, so I'm in no way influenced by what he thinks or contributes.
Now, here's my own caveat about my list. This is a list of the Top 15 quarterbacks in the league, right now. As of today. You can, if you need to paint a picture, pretend as if the 2021 NFL season is over and they're starting a new season on January 1, 2022. In other words, who would you want quarterbacking your team, right now, this season, given that you're starting a brand new year.
This is not about a player's contract status, age, what wide receivers he has at his disposal or anything like that. This list is simple: If you could employ any quarterback in the league right now who would be your first choice this season?
And with that...away we go.
#1 Tom Brady -- I don't think this requires an explanation. If you've been paying attention to football for the last 20 years, I assume you agree with this.
#2 Aaron Rodgers -- I think Rodgers is pretty close to being as good as Brady, but he's just not quite there. Rodgers loses games Brady would never lose. Alas, Rodgers is still very, very good.
#3 Patrick Mahomes -- Just Rodgers is close to Brady, Mahomes is close to Rodgers. There's nothing this kid can't do. If I got the third pick and Brady and Rodgers were gone, I'd do a handstand at the thought of having Mahomes quarterback my team.
#4 Lamar Jackson -- What he lacks in standard, prototype quarterback skills, he makes up for in intangibles. He's a winner, plain and simple. It's not always pretty or impressive, but it's certainly authentic.
#5 Josh Allen -- This kid's tough. And he's deceptively better than you think he is. He's a mixture of Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson. He doesn't look all that great throughout most of the game, then you see the stats and he's 26-32, 322 yards and 2 TD's and you just lost to him 27-13.
#6 Dak Prescott -- He seems like the talented golfer who hasn't yet won a major and everyone just keeps saying, "Once he wins one...watch out." I feel that way about Prescott. If he gets to the Super Bowl someday, watch out. As it stands now, he's underrated, maybe even vastly so. I'd take him.
#7 Joe Burrow -- When you start talking about guys like Burrow and Herbert and Murray, you're really not wrong in any order you place them. I'll take this guy over the other two because I think he has "it"...and you're starting to see that now with the Bengals. Truth of the matter, I might even be persuaded to take him over Prescott and Allen. For now, though, he's at #7.
#8 Justin Herbert -- I'd certainly love to have this guy on my team 17 weeks a year. Not sure if he's a "winner" or not, but he can sure throw the football.
#9 Kyler Murray -- See above. Not sure this kid has winning in his blood, but he's oozing with talent.
#10 Derek Carr -- There's something about him I like. And while most folks might rank Russell Wilson higher, I think I'd rather have Carr than Wilson. Horses for courses and all. I just like what this kid brings to the table every week.
#11 Russell Wilson -- I always feel like Wilson is on the downswing of his career, but then he'll string together a decent season and that idea gets pushed aside. He still has a lot of gas left in the tank.
#12 Mac Jones -- I'm not convinced this guy is the real deal yet, but I'll admit it's looking like he might be. 12 games is an awfully small sample size. But the early returns on him are very favorable and impressive.
#13 Baker Mayfield -- I like his attitude. I like the way he competes. I'm not sure he's ever going to be a great quarterback. I see 12 other guys in the league I'd take over him.
#14 Ryan Tannehill -- We're starting to split hairs here at the end of the list. I mean, who would you rather have? Tannehill or Cousins? Cousins' arm is shot. Tannehill or Wentz? They're very similar. Tannehill or Matt Ryan? Please...
#15 Carson Wentz -- He's still capable of doing some really good things, but his days of even being "semi-elite" are long gone. Still useful, though, and you could certainly do a lot worse.
Just to make sure I didn't leave anyone out...
Bridgewater? No thanks. Zach Wilson or Tua? No. Big Ben? 5 years ago, yes. Not now. Tyrod Taylor? No. Trevor Lawrence. Not yet.
Matt Ryan? Blah. Sam Darnold? No thanks. Whomever is in New Orleans? Pass. Hurts, Jones or Heinecke? No, no, no. Goff, Fields or Cousins? Nope. Stafford or Jimmy G? We'll decline, but thank you anyway.
that odor, tiger's presser, kelly's departure
So the Orioles actually did sign a baseball player on Tuesday. You can giggle all you want, but Rougned Odor is a bonafide major league second baseman. Sure, he was almost-good four or five years ago, but he comes to town on a one-year deal and he's cheap, which fits with what the club is trying to do during this rebuild.
I have no idea who will play second base in 2023 and 2024, but hopefully it's someone better than Odor, who is known more for punching Jose Bautista than he is for anything he's actually accomplished with the bat.
But, again, this is not a bad signing. It's precisely the kind of signing you make when you're still not yet worried about how many games you win. And, as we've pointed out numerous times over the last couple of years, no one of any "real" quality is going to come to Baltimore right now as a free agent. And the Orioles, as we know, wouldn't pay them market value if, in fact, they did want to play here.
I look at it like this: The Odor signing can't be any worse than last spring's signing of Freddy Galvis, who was shipped to Philadelphia at the trade deadline for some Amtrak tickets and a gift card to the Manor Tavern. Odor played for the Yankees last season, you might remember. If nothing else, maybe he has an axe to grind with them and helps the Orioles beat the Bronx Bombers six or seven times in 2022.
One pitching name who became available on Tuesday is former Detroit Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd. The Orioles would be well served to get to the front of the line for him. He's no Clayton Kershaw or anything like that, but he's a competent Major League pitcher who, at 31, can still get through the lineup two or three times. And, like John Means, could fetch something decent at the trade deadline next July if he pieces together a solid first-half.
The Orioles, you might know, desperately need pitching. Boyd would be an upgrade over any hurler they bring back from the '21 roster, with the possible exception of Means, who was really good in the first half of the '21 campaign before a shoulder injury derailed him.
Yesterday, Tiger Woods made his first public appearance in a press-conference-setting since his car accident last February, and Woods predictably dodged a couple of dicey questions and danced around the most important topic of all -- when he plans on playing once again.
Here were my four takes from the presser that was held in the Bahamas in conjunction with the Hero World Challenge that Woods runs on behalf of his foundation.
1. To no one's surprise, Tiger dodged the question about the car accident and any memories he has from that morning. "It's all in the police report," he mentioned. Alas, it wasn't really in the police report, but we get it. That's just his way of telling us he's not answering questions about the accident. I'm sure, in Tiger's mind, there's no benefit at all to answering questions about a car accident that nearly took his life.
2. He sounded like a guy who has come to terms with his future in golf and it sounds like Tiger's journey back to the TOUR is very much still in question. He mentioned, specifically, "I can play a round here and there...maybe some hit and giggle stuff", which essentially means he can climb in a cart and ride around and play. That kind of golf is far, far different than walking 18 holes five or six days in a row (counting practice rounds and pro-ams) at a TOUR event.
3. Tiger didn't answer the "when will you play again?" question, most likely because he really doesn't know when or if that might happen. But you have to assume he would love to tee it up at Augusta National in April. And there's always the "cart issue" at Augusta National that wouldn't require PGA Tour approval since Augusta National runs that event independent of the TOUR. If Woods did petition Augusta National for the use of a cart, they would have the right to say "yes" or "no" to that request. That event is still five months away, which gives Woods ample time to rehab and test his rebuilt right leg. If the Masters isn't possible, perhaps he looks at the British Open in July? The course -- St. Andrews -- is flat and an easy walk. Makes sense in a lot of ways.
4. Woods looked in good shape. He sounded like a guy who knows he's lucky to be alive. Whether he ever gets to play competitive golf again is a bonus at this point. He's alive and can continue to see his children grow up and be part of their lives. That's far more important than winning another golf tournament. That said, you know that "82" number is firmly planted in the back of his mind and he'd love to win just one more tournament to take over the top spot in career wins.
Brian Kelly's late night text to his team on Monday night was a bad, bad way for the former Notre Dame coach to leave South Bend. By the time he sent that text (10:00 pm), news of his departure to LSU had been out for the better part of four hours.
Here's the deal with Kelly: He should have sent his team a text the minute after he told LSU "yes". He had to know, because it's the way things work these days, that his move to LSU was going to get leaked out almost immediately after he agreed to the deal. It's 2021. Everyone wants to be first with the big story. A coach might want to go out a certain way -- and perhaps Kelly did have good intentions -- but it rarely goes as planned these days.
It's hard to fault Brian Kelly for taking roughly $100 million to go to LSU. In a perfect world, he'd leave Notre Dame, say all the right things, take that money from LSU and everyone would understand. You might remember he left Cincinnati in similar fashion when he took the Notre Dame gig. People understand that moving from one job to the other, especially in sports, is part of the deal.
But when your team's season is still going on and you have the chance, if things fall favorably your way, to still play in the college playoff tournament, it's hard to say nice things about a coach who leaves all of that behind and abandons his team at the 11th hour.
Shame on LSU for not having the patience to wait this one out if Kelly was the guy they really wanted. And shame on Kelly for not saying to them from the start, "As soon as we're no longer playing football this season at Notre Dame, my agent will be on the phone with you to talk about the coaching job down there."
People want to lash out at Kelly and I certainly see the merit in that reaction. But LSU was equally shameless in this adventure. That they're not feeling the wrath of their lack of integrity is puzzling to say the least.
College athletes can now transfer without sitting out a year. Coaches have been able to do that for a long time. People, in this world we live in, are always looking to capitalize on their own personal momentum and they're always looking for the next big opportunity. It's hard to fault Kelly for wanting to better his life. But the way it happened was bogus. The way it happened was, frankly, not something his former institution or the church itself would be particularly proud of, if you ask me.
terps take on virginia tech tonight
Last year's ACC's Coach of the Year, Mike Young, brings his Virginia Tech Hokie team into College Park tonight for a 7:15 p.m. ACC / BIG TEN Challenge game. Both teams sport 5-2 records.
I would feel much better about my handle on this Hokie team had I been able to secure game tape of their last two games. Last Friday, Virginia Tech lost to #25 ranked Xavier, 59-58. Two days prior, they lost to #9 Memphis, 69-61. However, ESPN let me down and instead, I was forced to glean information from their tussles with Marrimack and St. Francis. Hardly the same level of competition, but enough to assess their tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses.
All five Hokie starters will shoot threes. The Terps absolutely cannot give Virginia Tech free run beyond the arc. Unlike Louisville, on whom you could rely to throw bricks, the Hokies drop threes at a rate of 40%. They are third in the ACC in attempts, and the triple is a significant part of their offense. That being said, this is far from a one-dimensional team, offensively.
At 6'9", Keve Aluma is a killer when posting down low. He has good, not great, athleticism combined with smooth post moves and a very controlled release on his shots. Last season, Aluma was a second team All ACC selection. He'll be a handful for Maryland and Qudus Wahab. Aluma won't present the same type of interior defense that Malik Williams of Louisville brought to the paint, but he is a much better scorer, and I expect him to be tough on the Terps.
If you are a fan of highlight reel dunks, then keep an eye on Justyn Mutts. This 6'7" forward has a great basketball body and plays long. He can finish inside with authority, is the top rebounder on his team (8.0 per game) and shoots a respectable 35.7% from the three-point line. He's also not bad when he puts it on the floor. Like the rest of his teammates, he plays aggressive defense.
Running the show for the Hokie offense is Storm Murphy. Don't leave him alone on the perimeter. The fifth-year senior is a career 41.4% shooter from beyond the arc. He plays defense with frenetic activity, and has a stop and pop jumper reminiscent of (for all of you old heads) former Towson State star Rodney Norris. It's nice.
Naheim Alleyne is also worth mentioning because of his long, 6'4" frame, and his 40% three-point stroke. He is an oddity in that throughout his career he's made a better percentage of this threes than his twos.
As a team, you'll see Virginia Tech play high pressure, very active defense. It's their calling card. They move quickly and play defense with intensity. What Virginia Tech lacks is a true shot blocker and enforcer in the paint. If Young decides to go big, he can do so by going to his bench. There might be a tiny drop off in quality, but they get even more athletic.
The Terps are going to need to attack the Hokie long range shooters and match the type of defensive pressure that Virginia Tech will apply to them. That means the Maryland defenders will need to maintain intensity as long as there is time on the shot clock.
Offensively, for Maryland, I could see Donta Scott struggling to score big points on Mutts, and Nahein has the goods to keep Eric Ayala in check. Maryland's Hakim Hart, despite his big night against Richmond, can't be counted on for much offensive production either. So that leave Fatts Russell and Wahab to provide the points needed to bring home a victory for the Big Ten.
Virginia Tech doesn't have the goods to finish 3rd in the ACC like they did last year, but they still have plenty of athletes and can play stifling defense. They are not a great rebounding team, and that may allow Mark Turgeon to play some 3-point-protecting zone defense. I expect Maryland to place a greater emphasis on inside offense than they have in previous games. But it won't be enough.
As in the Louisville game, the books are asking you to give a point if you want to invest in the Terps. Unless Wahab puts up 22 or more, Maryland won't have enough offense to win this game. A win for Maryland would be huge, but it won't happen. The Hokies prevail, 70-64.
u.s. men's soccer report
This week several top US players had impressive performances for their clubs. The midweek Champions League games featured seven Americans playing on the same day. Over the weekend several were on the field for important games in England, Italy and Germany. Another bit of good news came off the field when the draw was set for the intercontinental playoff that determines the last two World Cup qualifiers.
Stock Up
Christian Pulisic continued to work his way back into a Chelsea team that is currently one of the top in Europe. He made his first start for Chelsea since September in their Champions League matchup against Weston McKennie and Juventus. Playing in a "false 9" striker role, Pulisic helped Chelsea to a dominant 4-0 win that ensured they will advance to the knockout round as the group winner. The American attacker didn't make any decisive contributions in attack but pressed the defense effectively and had some good moments linking up play.
He was not in the starting lineup for the weekend Premier League showdown with Manchester United, but subbed on in the second half as Chelsea tried to find the game winning goal. Despite his short time on the field, Pulisic made a big impression, providing an offensive spark that nearly broke the game open. His movement and passing helped set up several dangerous chances including a sharp cross that found teammate Antonio Rudiger in a good spot in the box, but was not converted. Despite concluding the game with an onslaught on the Man U penalty area, Chelsea couldn't find the winning goal and settled for a 1-1 draw which keeps them top of the Premier League.
On the other side of that Champions League matchup, Weston McKennie delivered another solid performance despite the poor result for his team. The midfielder was one of the better players on the field for Juventus, working hard in defense and providing a spark in attack when allowed to get forward. He hit a powerful shot that forced a tough save as Juventus tried to claw back late in the game.
He was solid again in another tough loss on Saturday against Atalanta in Serie A. McKennie left that game with a knee injury in the second half, but reports are that it's not too serious and he is day to day. Meanwhile his team is reeling, coming off a string of poor performances. Juventus is struggling to keep pace with the top of Serie A and are at serious risk of missing the Champions League places for the first time in many years. Despite the poor recent form they have at least assured they will advance to the knockout round of this season's Champions League.
While the status of Pulisic and McKennie in the US team was never in question, another stalwart is working on earning his way back into the team after missing out on the November games. John Brooks has had a good rebound in his form since the snub from Berhalter and continued to play well this week. Brooks started in both the 2-0 loss to Sevilla in the Champions League as well as the 3-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund over the weekend.
Although his team came up short in both games, the American center back performed well. Against Sevilla, Brooks displayed his passing vision from the back line, consistently hitting effective passes to break down the defense. He continued against Dortmund, hitting a nice cross field pass that initiated Wolfsburg's only goal scoring sequence. He played another lofted pass that set up his striker with a good chance in the box later in the game. Given the issues the US team had passing out of the back line against Jamaica, if Brooks continues to stay sharp he should be back in the lineup in January.
One more American who boosted his stock this weekend was 20 year old midfielder Tanner Tessman. Entering as a second half substitute for Venezia in a 2-0 loss to Inter Milan, Tessman turned some heads. He was efficient in his passing and covered a lot of ground as Venezia tried to stage a comeback. He nearly had a highlight moment when he dribbled past two defenders at the top of the box and found an open pocket, but he blasted his shot over the goal. The Alabama native has seen his playing time gradually increase for Venezia this season. If he can continue to expand his role and earn a starting spot he could become another intriguing option for midfield depth in the US team.
Stock Down
There weren't many negative performances from USMNT players this week. American coach Jesse Marsch had an up and down week, getting a big 4-0 win in the midweek Champions League game, but taking a rough 3-1 home loss to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Tyler Adams missed the Champions League match with a suspension due to yellow card accumulation, and was only used as a late sub in the weekend loss.
American striker Josh Sargent started once again for flailing Norwich City and failed to make much of an impact. Sargent was left off the last US roster and is struggling to find his footing in the Premier League. The good news is Sargent continues to start and see solid playing time, despite a coaching change. However he is not producing much end product and without an uptick in form it's hard to see him back in the national team in January.
One bit of positive news for the USMNT came via the draw for the World Cup qualifying playoff. In the CONCACAF qualifying group, the top three teams earn automatic spots into the World Cup, but the fourth place team must play a one game playoff with a country from another region to earn a spot. That match could have been against qualifiers from South America, Asia, or Oceania.
Fortunately for CONCACAF, they have drawn Oceania, avoiding potential tough opponents like Colombia, Uruguay or Japan. Now the fourth place CONCACAF qualifier will likely be favored in a matchup against New Zealand. The US currently sits in second place and remains in good shape to snag one of the automatic qualifying spots, but it's good to know that if they finish fourth they will still have a good chance to get into the World Cup.
| Tuesday November 30, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2655 |
the teams and what they need
Because the league is goofy, there's technically no rock-solid two-thirds of the season landmark. The Ravens, for example, are 11 games into a 17-game season. They're past the halfway mark, in other words, but not precisely at the 66% point of the campaign.
Other teams have played 12 games, which represents the 70% mark of the season.
So we'll go through where the contenders are at this point in today's edition, but the schedule being what it is and all, some of the clubs have played 11 games and some have played 12.
We'll try to paint the playoff picture for you as best we can.
AFC --
THE TEAM TO BEAT -- It's still Kansas City, I'm afraid. Until they're eliminated, either in the regular season (doubtful) or in the playoffs, they're still the team most capable of winning either at home or on the road when the games matter the most. They have flaws, yes, but so does every other AFC team. Their offensive weapons are still the best in the conference. And they're the one team that can go into any stadium in the playoffs and win.
THE TEAM THAT NEEDS HOME FIELD -- The Baltimore Ravens. If John Harbaugh's team can somehow secure the #1 seed, that will go a long, long way in helping them get through the playoffs. Without home field, the Ravens are in trouble. One look at their play on the road thus far tells the story. They played decently at Las Vegas to start the season but coughed up a late lead in losing to the Raiders. They beat the Lions in Detroit on a miracle kick from Justin Tucker. They methodically disposed of an overrated Denver team. They lost to Miami. They barely beat a lousy Chicago team. At home, they're a different team -- as are most clubs in the NFL. If the Ravens have to go on the road in the playoffs, they're cooked. If they can stay home, they have a legit chance at going to the Super Bowl.
THE TEAM YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND DISMISS -- It's the Tennessee Titans. Sadly, injuries to their key guys have robbed them of a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Everyone gets injuries, like the Ravens, for instance, but not every team has Lamar Jackson. Ryan Tannehill can't beat teams on his own the way Lamar can. The Titans needed Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. All three of those guys are out. So, too, are Tennessee's chances of making any post-season noise. They'll be one and done...if they make it.
THE TEAM YOU WON'T WANT TO FACE -- At this point it has to be New England (8-4), simply because of the way they've put things together with their rookie quarterback. It's hard to imagine they can continue playing at this level, but their coach is pretty good and their defense is definitely starting to take shape. If Mac Jones doesn't hit the rookie wall, the Patriots could be a threat in January.
THE TEAM THAT MIGHT SNEAK IN -- The Dolphins have somehow won 4 games in a row and have a fairly benign schedule from here to the house. They have the Giants and Jets in back-to-back weeks in Miami (7-7), then go to New Orleans and Tennessee before finishing at home vs. New England. There's no telling where those last three teams will be in terms of the playoff race, but if the Dolphins can go 2-1 in those three, 9-8 might get them into the post-season.
THE TEAM THAT COULD SURPRISE EVERYONE -- I can't even believe I'm typing this, but it could be the Cincinnati Bengals. They're 7-4 now with the Chargers and 49'ers coming to Cincinnati in the next two weeks. They finish at Denver, hosting the Ravens and Kansas City, and at Cleveland. 11-6 is well within their grasp as long as they win their home games. They can certainly beat Denver and Cleveland, too. Because they're the Bengals, they'll do something dumb like lose to the Chargers or 49'ers, but 11-6 seems like a minimum finishing record for them. And with their well-rounded offense and overall team health, they could be a surprise team in the AFC.
NFC --
THE TEAM TO BEAT -- Who else? Tom Brady. And the Buccaneers. Until they're eliminated, they're the team that's going to the Super Bowl in the NFC. The league and the networks would give their left arm for Brady vs. Belichick for all the marbles in Los Angeles. Wouldn't that be something if it happens?
THE TEAM THAT NEEDS HOME FIELD -- This is simple. It's Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers isn't incapable of winning on the road, but the Packers' fortunes are directly tied to their ability to play at home in January. If they do have to go on the road for one game, a trip to Arizona -- where they've won already -- wouldn't be all that bad. Sure, they haven't been flawless at home in the playoffs during the Aaron Rodgers era, but they have a far better chance of going to the Super Bowl by playing at home the whole way through the post-season.
THE TEAM YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND DISMISS -- The Rams went "all in" at mid-season by adding Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr., but they're not going anywhere with Matt Stafford at the helm, it appears. There was a train of thought that Sean McVay and a new start in Los Angeles was what Stafford needed, but his play thus far in '21 paints a different picture. Stafford can't do it. And the Rams, despite their offensive weapons and talent on defense, are going to be hard pressed to make the playoffs at this point, let alone challenge for the NFC title. At 7-4 now, they have two automatic wins remaining (vs. Jacksonville and Seattle) and that's it. They can finish anywhere from 9-8 to 11-6 depending on how things shake out, but no matter what, they're not doing anything in mid-January.
THE TEAM YOU WON'T WANT TO FACE -- If Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins both return to full health and stay that way, Arizona's the answer here. But if Murray, in particular, remains hobbled throughout the rest of the season, the Cardinals will be a quick out in January. The oddest thing about Arizona thus far? They're 5-0 on the road and 3-2 at home. Their schedule the rest of the way is fairly simple with road games at Chicago, Detroit and Dallas and home games vs. the Rams, Colts and Seahawks. If Murray and Hopkins return to good health, the Cardinals are looking at 13-4 or 14-3.
THE TEAM THAT MIGHT SNEAK IN -- Don't rule out the Vikings (5-6), who can reach 9 wins quite easily still and could threaten to finish 10-7. They're at Detroit, home vs. Pittsburgh, at Chicago, home vs. the Rams, at Green Bay, and home vs. Chicago. The injury to Dalvin Cook could derail them, but the Cousins-Jefferson combination is lethal. They just need better defensive play, which is easier said than done. All things being equal, the Vikings have a chance to sneak in if they win their next three against three teams they should beat.
THE TEAM THAT COULD SURPRISE EVERYONE -- Dallas needs to get healthy, especially at the wide receiver position. But if they can get Lamb and Cooper back on track and if everyone else on the offense stays healthy, the Cowboys can put some points on the board and be a problem for anyone. Their defense isn't all that great, but they can definitely outscore you if they have all their ducks in a row.
AFC teams that are guaranteed to win at least one playoff game -- (none)
NFC teams that are guaranteed to win at least one playoff game -- Tampa Bay
AFC teams that could make it to the Super Bowl -- Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, Indianapolis.
NFC teams that could make it to the Super Bowl -- Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay
#DMD's pre-season predicted Super Bowl match-up -- Baltimore vs. L.A. Rams
#DMD's revised Super Bowl prediction (11/30/21) -- Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay
a task for steve bisciotti
Steve Bisciotti has been an outstanding owner of the Ravens since assuming his full role in 2004. He has led the franchise through a coaching change, a general manager change and a significant shift in the franchise's on-field identity, going from a defense-first team to an offense-first team with the emergence of Lamar Jackson.
Behind the scenes, Bisciotti has been an important part of the league's ownership infrastructure. You'd be hard pressed to find an enemy of his in the room when the owners get together.
Someday, Bisciotti will no longer own the Baltimore Ravens.
When that is remains to be seen. Could it be within 5 years? Perhaps. Within ten years? Almost certainly. But none of that really matters at this point, although his eventual exit is germane to today's topic at hand.
Before he leaves the team to someone else, Bisciotti should do one thing: He should do everything in his power to force the NFL to issue a direct mandate to the Indianapolis Colts that they no longer connect the Baltimore Colts with the Indianapolis Colts.
How does he "force" this issue? That I don't know. But where there's a will there's a way. Perhaps there's a vote the league needs from Baltimore/Bisciotti and he can leverage his position on that issue with the Baltimore/Indianapolis fiasco. Maybe there's a marketing deal involving several teams and the Ravens are a key part of that from a viability and revenue standpoint. Somehow, Bisciotti needs to put pressure on the league to act on this and get it done.
Because the community at large doesn't have the ability to make this happen, it's incumbent on Bisciotti to pursue it on behalf of the Baltimore football fans. In fact, I'll go as far as saying this: Steve Bisciotti would be far more remembered in Baltimore for getting the league to divide the Baltimore and Indianapolis Colts than he would be for anything else the Ravens accomplish during his ownership tenure.
Getting the NFL to force Indianapolis to separate themselves from the Baltimore Colts would also require the league do that as well. And it simply MUST happen.
On Sunday, former Baltimore Colts running back Lenny Moore was ushered out to Indianapolis to do a meet-and-greet with current Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. With all due respect to the young man, he has no more idea who Lenny Moore is than you and I know the identity of the mail carrier in Hickory, North Carolina. Lenny Moore never played in Indianapolis. He played in Baltimore.
The Colts have been clinging to their Baltimore roots for the better part of 40 years now. It's a joke. They have their own heritage, their own accomplishments and their own identity. Frankly, comparing Peyton Manning to Johnny Unitas is a slap in the face to both Unitas and Manning. Johnny Unitas was the greatest QB in Baltimore Colts history and Peyton Manning was the greatest QB in Indianapolis Colts history. The two have nothing to do with one another.
That the league doesn't see fit to separate the two organizations is mind-boggling.
Art Modell was at least kind enough to allow for that in Cleveland. Did he yank the team away from Cleveland and break their sports heart at the same time? He did, yes. But by allowing the Browns name and colors to stay in Cleveland, he also allowed for the heritage of the franchise to remain intact.
Lamar Jackson plays for the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, they were once the Cleveland Browns. But in no way, shape or form does Baltimore have to worry about hearing names like Bernie Kosar or Brian Sipe and how their stats are better, equal to or worse than Lamar Jackson's.
Steve Bisciotti has been a great owner here and will be a great owner until he leaves someday. But before he goes, he must make this a priority. The NFL and the Indianapolis Colts have to be brought to justice.
Johnny Unitas, Raymond Berry and Lenny Moore played for the Baltimore Colts and should always be recognized as such. They did not play for the "Colts". The team was called the "Baltimore Colts" and they should always be remembered that way.
If Steve Bisciotti wants to leave something to the Baltimore football fans, he'll pursue this remedy and do so with all of his heart. He knows how important it is. I hope he follows through and makes it happen.
| Monday November 29, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2654 |
just keep stacking 'em
It almost feels like the Ravens are trolling us at this point. Doesn't it?
I know they aren't. But it sure seems that way.
Last night's 16-10 win over Cleveland was both unimpressive and inspiring at the same time. On a night when Lamar Jackson didn't have his best stuff and the team's running backs accounted for just 67 yards, the Baltimore defense stepped up to shut down the Cleveland ground game and made life miserable for Baker Mayfield, who was fortunate to even produce one touchdown on Sunday evening.
Yes, we're going to say it again here for what feels like the umpteenth time over the last few years. "A win is a win." Just keep stacking 'em up.
Fortunately, in a year where the Ravens are beaten, bruised and battered and they're getting irregular play from their star quarterback, no one else in the AFC is all that good either. And it adds up to an 8-3 record and, as of now, the #1 seed in the conference. There's still football left to be played, of course, but the Ravens now have their playoff fate and home field advantage on their racquet with six games remaining.
Several things stood out on Sunday night. Besides the officiating, that is. We won't spend a second of this space ridiculing those guys for their inept performance last night. It is what it is.
Odafe Oweh took advantage of an early injury to Cleveland right tackle Jack Conklin and was an absolute terror on Sunday night. Whether Oweh winds up in the mix for the AFC Rookie of the Year remains to be seen, but it's been a while since a first-year defensive player in Baltimore has made the kind of impact the former Penn State defensive end has made this season.
Tyus Bowser -- who is reaping the benefit of Oweh's presence -- had another massive game last night. Over the off-season I urged the Ravens to keep Bowser and Derek Wolfe around for 2021. I was half-right on that one. Bowser is, at this point, the team's Defensive MVP, if such awards are handed out. He managed three hits on Baker Mayfield last night, a pass deflection and 4 tackles, including the game-ending wrap-up on Mayfield's 4th and 10 throw to David Njoku. Much is being made about the season Matthew Judon is having in New England, but Bowser is a cheaper version of Judon, which is what the NFL is basically all about. Find the guy who is almost as good as the other guy at a more reasonable price.
Patrick Queen has been a major asset since the recent switch to the "Will" linebacker position and appears to finally be settling in as the player the Ravens thought they were getting when they picked him in the first round in 2020. Queen led the team with 8 tackles (yes, we realize that stat is a little misleading) including two for lost yardage. He's gone from essentially being benched back in early October to playing at an extremely high level in late November. Things have definitely turned in his favor and the Baltimore defense is better for it, too.
Mark Andrews had a weird-but-good stat night as he not only hauled in 4 receptions for 65 yards, plus a touchdown, but he also made 3 solo tackles on Lamar Jackson interceptions. The 3rd quarter catch at the Cleveland 13 yard line was remarkable and his route running on the touchdown grab minutes later was outstanding, as he never gave up on the play despite knowing Lamar was nearly sacked. Andrews remains the team's best pass catching option, with all due respect to Brown and Bateman.
When your kicker amasses more points than your offense, you have to mention him, so here's where we'll laud Justin Tucker for another remarkable night. Tucker was 3-for-3, with kicks from 52, 25 and 49 yards. The final boot from 49 yards out with 1:10 remaining gave the Ravens a 16-10 lead and created a "touchdown or bust" mentality for the Browns on their final drive of the game. If Tucker misses that, Cleveland gets the ball on their own 39 yard line needing just a field goal to tie.
Now...it wasn't all good on Sunday night. That's why it was a one-possession game with a minute left to play.
Lamar obviously had an off night, which is now two straight uneven performances from him. Granted, the Cleveland defense is good and Myles Garrett is a premier rush end in the league, but Jackson's poor play was directly responsible for keeping the Browns in the game until the end. That said, he was again effective running the ball himself, which is pretty much necessary these days since the Ravens' trio of running backs are pedestrian at best. Jackson finished Sunday night's win as the team's leading rusher with 68 yards, which tells you all you need to know.
Some armchair quarterbacks on radio and TV will spend time today highlighting several of Lamar's sidearm throws from last night, but those weren't the passes that got him in trouble. In fact, there's probably an argument he's more accurate throwing the ball that way than he is throwing a "standard" pass. It's also fair to remember that Jackson is now in his 4th season in the NFL and teams might slowly be starting to catch up to him a wee bit. And there's nothing wrong with that. Lamar and Greg Roman will just need to go to the film room and figure out a way to stay ahead of the rest of the league.
The Baltimore secondary again looked vulnerable on Sunday night, as Jarvis Landry had a huge game (111 yards on 6 receptions) and David Njoku added 35 yards on 3 receptions (although the TD catch was certainly questionable). The Ravens' biggest break might have come in the 3rd quarter when Cleveland tight end Harrison Bryant left the game due to injury. He had 3 receptions for 50 yards and looked like he was going to be a coverage-problem for Wink Martindale and the defense throughout the game.
Next Sunday in Pittsburgh will present another challenge for the Ravens secondary. Roethlisberger might be 39 with the agility of Fred Flintstone, but he has some weapons in the receiving department and, in case you don't recall, Big Ben has generally played "up" against Baltimore when the game is in the Steel City.
Oh, and don't forget that Baltimore will be steaming into Heinz Field next Sunday to face a team that just got absolutely boatraced in Cincinnati yesterday, 41-10. That's never a good thing.
All in all, I don't see how anyone can be down on the Ravens at this point. They're on top of the division, leading the conference, and, as we all know, haven't even really played all that well over their 11-game schedule to date. They are, by the very definition, "doing just enough to win," which is really all that matters.
Sure, their remaining schedule is daunting, but nothing that they can't handle if they get better play from Lamar, some modest improvement from their running backs, and better coverage from the secondary. And as we've seen thus far in '21, the only other team in the division really worth a hoot is Cincinnati. The AFC North is definitely still up for grabs, but it's a two-team race, frankly.
notes from the weekend
The Washington Capitals made an early season statement on Sunday with a 4-2 road win over Carolina that gives the Caps sole possession of first place in the Metropolitan Division.
Sure, one game in late November doesn't mean anything, but much was made of yesterday's showdown between two of the league's best teams and it was the Caps who came through with the win. Alex Ovechkin connected on his 19th goal of the season and Dmitry Orlov scored with just under 3 minutes remaining to put the Caps ahead, 3-2. Washington is now 14-3-5 on the year (for those that don't know, the "5" represents five overtime losses).
The New York Mets and Texas Rangers are both interested in winning in 2022, as both teams have been very active in free agency thus far. The Mets, if the rumors are true, are the current high bidder for future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, waving upwards of $45 million at him to leave sunny Southern California and come back east.
New York has already added Starling Marte and Mark Canha in this hot stove season, but a Scherzer signing would be one of the biggest pieces of news of the off-season and would go a long way in making the Mets a pre-season N.L. East favorite.
The Rangers are spending gobs of money this off-season, as they're closing in on signing Marcus Semien and pitcher Jon Gray, both of whom would be outstanding starter-pieces in their effort to compete with the Astros in the A.L. West. Semien was a finalist for A.L. MVP honors with Toronto this past season. Gray's base numbers (8-12, 4.59) in Colorado in 2021 weren't all that great, but baseball analysts feel like he'll prosper by getting out of Denver, as most pitchers do.
Oh, and speaking of pitchers and big money, the Blue Jays added former Oriole Kevin Gausman on Sunday, giving him 5 years and $110 million. Gausman was in the hunt for the N.L. Cy Young Award in '21 after going 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA for the Giants, and Toronto decided to invest heavily in him. That seems like a lot of money to pay for a guy who has essentially had one outstanding year in his career. But Toronto, as we know, is just "pitching" away from perhaps seizing control of the A.L. East for a few years.
The wildfire rumor spreading on the PGA Tour is that Tiger Woods and his son, Charlie, are going to tee it up in the Father-Son championship in two weeks. This would make sense -- if Woods is healthy -- in that participants get to ride in golf carts and the onus of playing out every hole wouldn't fall on Tiger. His 13-year old son is quite the player, as you might remember from last December when he essentially outplayed both Tiger and Justin Thomas from 100 yards and in on Sunday.
If Woods doesn't play in the Father-Son, it simply means he doesn't feel like his golf game is up to the standards required to compete, even in something as meaningless as a silly season event. If Woods does play, though, it will lead to follow up discussion about his 2022 schedule and when he might kick it off.
There have been whispers in the golf world that Tiger might petition the PGA Tour to allow him to use a golf cart in '22 as he continues to rehab the leg injury he suffered in last February's car accident, but the bet here is there's no way the TOUR would allow for Woods to ride while the rest of the players and their caddies walk.
I realize he's Tiger Woods and all and he's still the biggest needle mover in the world of golf (if not all of sport), but there's simply no way the PGA Tour can accommodate a cart request from Woods. It would be an awful look for Commissioner Jay Monahan if he gave in on that one.
terps-louisville review
Editor's note: This game recap was originally scheduled to run in yesterday's edition of #DMD, but technical issues prohibited it from appearing here. Our apologies...
You simply can't win major college basketball games when you get outrebounded 51-25, especially when you lose the offensive rebound numbers 17-2. The Maryland Terrapins were pummeled on the glass Saturday, and as a result, suffered a 63-55 loss to the Louisville Cardinals.
The Terps shot slightly better than the Cards from the field and the three-point line. They also won the turnover battle,17-13. But 16 Louisville second chance points, compared to just 2 for Maryland sealed the Terrapins fate.
Malik Williams led Louisville with 13 points and 12 rebounds. Noel Locke added 12 points while Jae'Lyn Williams grabbed 11 carroms. Williams and Withers almost outrebounded the entire Terp team, 23-25.
Donta Scott led the Terps with 16 points on just 6 of 16 shooting and he tied Fatts Russell for the team lead with 6 rebounds. Fatts' 6 defensive rebounds were actually the most on his team.
In an NCAA landscape where shooters and athletes are at a premium, Maryland simply does not have enough of either. Their 38.5% shooting from the field, and 28.6% from the three-point line might have been better than the Cards 35.5% and 22%, but the Terps took 8 less shots because of all the Louisville offensive rebounds. Maryland could manage just 3 second-chance points because they grabbed just 2 offensive rebounds. You would think they could get that many by accident. Maybe that's what they did.
Louisville held a slight 5-3 lead at the first TV timeout. They had already scored off of an offensive rebound. Scott had already missed three shots, but would redeem himself with a steal and dunk to help propel the terps to a 9-0 run where they took a 10-5 lead after 8:18 had been played in the half.
A few minutes later, the Terp defense started to break down and the Cardinals began to surge. Louisville would score 22 points in the half's final 8 minutes. During that same time, Maryland tallied just 9 points and trailed by 5 at the intermission, 32-27. In a foreshadowing of the final numbers, the Terps were manhandled on the offensive glass 12-1 during the first 20 minutes. Russell, the shortest player on the court, had 5 of his team's 11 rebounds. Maryland also had 7 first half turnovers. Terp newcomers, Ian Martinez and Julian Reese both looked lost in the first half.
In the second half, Maryland had an early 4-minute scoring drought, and found themselves down by 8, 42-34, with 13:38 left in the game. However, a couple of Scott three pointers sandwiched around an Eric Ayala layup allowed the Terps to pull even at 42-all. Maryland went to a zone for 2 productive defensive possessions, but Louisville countered by substituting all 5 guys, forcing the Terps to return to their man-to-man defense.
The Terps scored the next five points, extending Louisville's scoreless streak to 7 minutes. At this point, a key thing happened that may have not drawn much attention at the time, but was a huge red flag to me. Ayala was fouled while making a layup that put Maryland up 5, 47-42.
After a short break for some substitutions, Ayala badly missed the foul shot. The attempt seemingly lacked intensity. The Terp senior who made 83% of his free throws last year only converted of 2 of 5 yesterday. A good shooter from the foul line will miss short or long, perhaps just a tiny bit left or right, but his attempt was oddly wide left. You could sense a momentum change was on the way.
In the next 50 seconds, the Cardinals got a bucket from Locke, a turnover from Russell, and a three from Matt Cross after Scott missed covering him. The game was tied at 47 with 6:24 left. The two teams traded buckets, but the 49-49 tie would be the last of the game. Once they got behind, the Terps defense couldn't get stops and when forced to put Louisville on the line, the Cardinals converted. There was no last shot drama as Louisville cruised to the 63-55 win.
This game was far too physical for a Maryland team that lacks physicality. Maryland just didn't have the personnel to match up with Louisville's athletes. You can't coach athleticism; you have to recruit it. Until Mark Turgeon can persuade quality shooters and elite athletes to come to College Park, the program can have moderate success, but they will never reach the heights expected by the Terp faithful.
I don't think the team is underperforming, I think the talent on this '21-22 team has been over evaluated.
Maryland will improve because the new pieces really haven't had much time to gel. However, even when that happens, I have doubts that they can hit enough shots to overcome their physical limitations.
Maryland will return to action on Wednesday when they meet Virginia Tech for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game in the XFINITY Center. Game time is 7:15 p.m. and you can watch it ESPN2.
| | #DMD GAME DAY | |
| | Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens 8:20 PM EST M&T Bank Stadium Spread: Ravens (-3.5) | |
i sure hope i'm wrong
You want the good news or bad news first?
The good news?
I'm not always right when I get "these feelings".
The bad news?
I might very well be right tonight.
I have a weird feeling the Ravens are losing tonight at home to Cleveland. I just think the injuries on the defensive side of the ball are too much to overcome for John Harbaugh's team. And Cleveland's the healthiest they've been all season, with the exception of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has a list of ailments so long it makes Ben Roethlisberger jealous.
I don't want to be right, trust me. I hope I'm wrong. I want to be wrong, in fact. But I can't hide the fact that I think the odds are stacked against the Ravens tonight and I don't see them winning.
This wouldn't be a catastrophic loss for Baltimore, but it would create a wide-open AFC North playoff race with six games remaining. Everyone will still have a shot at the division title even if the Ravens should happen to win tonight, but a Ravens victory would go a long way towards that 11-win total we all seem to think will be good enough for the AFC North crown. A loss, though, and all four teams are smack-dab-in-the-thick-of-it with a third of the season remaining.
If you want a score just so you have something to hold me to, I'll say Cleveland wins 27-21. It's close all night but the Browns get a score with about five minutes remaining to go up by six and they hold on from there.
I hope I'm wrong.
It was a tale of two different tapes for Maryland sports on Saturday as the basketball team lost in the Bahamas to Louisville and the football team smashed Rutgers on the road to finish at 6-6 and become "bowl eligible".
The football Terps seem destined for New York or Detroit for their post-season game. It's not the Orange Bowl, but it'll do.
Saturday was filled with teams reaching the magical six-win mark and celebrating their "bowl eligibility". 82 of the 130 Division I FBS teams will play in a bowl game this year (and early next), which means, obviously, it doesn't take much to make it to a bowl game these days. Hence, Maryland's 6-6 mark gets them into one, where the school will make a decent check and boost its recruiting presence at the same time.
Someone said to me yesterday, "So they made a bowl game, big deal. They finished five hundred for the season. Why celebrate that?"
To which I said. "They were 5-6 entering today's game at Rutgers. If they would have lost, they wouldn't have made a bowl game at all. Would you rather they win and make one or lose and not make one?"
I totally understand that 6-6 is nothing to fly a banner about, but it's better than 5-7.
The basketball team? They weren't so fortunate on Saturday, losing 63-55 to Louisville. The Terps were outrebounded in that one, 51-25.
There's the stat. That's it. Outrebounded 51-25.
In a game where three or four baskets decided the outcome, Louisville got the ball 26 more times than Maryland once a shot was missed.
Basketball experts (to clarify, I am not one of those) say rebounding is 70% effort, 20% positioning and 10% technique. Dennis Rodman used to say, "I decide when the ball is in the air if I'm going to fight for this one or let the other guy get it. Most times I decided I wanted it and I went and got it."
It seems like the Terps either need more practice at rebounding or they need more heart. I have no idea which one of those Mark Turgeon believes is more important for his '21-22 team, but when you get outrebounded 51-25 something's definitely wrong. Maybe it was an outlier. Perhaps it just wasn't Maryland's day on the boards. We'll see on Wednesday night when Virginia Tech comes to College Park, right?
Turgeon, by the way, was mostly happy with the way things went in the Bahamas. "I think we improved a lot down here," he said after yesterday's loss. "We learned something about how to control the tempo in that Richmond game (where Maryland came back from a 12-point deficit) and even today, we mostly defended well on the perimeter and forced Louisville into taking a lot of shots they didn't want to take."
If Turgeon's happy with a 1-1 road trip and a loss to a Louisville team playing with an interim coach, that's his call. But the natives are indeed growing restless in the DMV. This is going to be a pivotal campaign for Turgeon. Let's hope he has the players to get the job done.
So far, it looks like Maryland doesn't have enough horses. I hope I'm wrong on that one, too.
Our friend "Bet It All Paul" returns with five wagering opportunities for you today. His presence here sparked an e-mail from "Matt" this week who wondered why this website was diving so deeply into sports wagering. "Do you want your son gambling on sports someday?" he asked.
There has been a massive shift in the way our country and sports media in general deals with sports wagering. 20 years ago, it was still somewhat taboo and you had to hustle to the local street corner to throw a few bucks on Michigan vs. Ohio State.
10 years ago, things started to loosen up as opportunities like Fantasy Football and online wagering platforms took hold.
Today? The networks are publishing the spreads and the totals and prop bets every opportunity they get. Whether you personally agree with gambling on sports is certainly your call, but the reality is that it's now part of the landscape in every situation.
I watched the Capitals-Panthers game on Friday night and in between the second and third periods, they had a 1-minute segment devoted to gambling.
"OK, here's what we're looking at...the Panthers, trailing, 3-2, are +300 to win the game outright tonight. The Caps are now -105 to win. As for the goal total, that's been moved to 7.5 and you're at +240 for the over and -115 for the under."
That came from the network. That betting segment was part of the team's official broadcast. If that doesn't tell you about sports gambling, I don't know what does.
I'm not here to tell you that sports gambling is good or bad. That's up to you. But I am here to recognize that it's a major part of the fabric of all sports and it is interesting to me, at the very least. On the whole, I think gambling on the games is kind of dumb given how many times we've seen strange things happen at the end of games -- in every sport. But I also understand it changes your interest level when you can throw $100 on the total or the point spread.
Do I want my son to gamble on sports someday? Not particularly. But he has heard tales of mine (both good wins and bad losses) from the golf course over the years and knows all too well that it's part of the sports marketplace, whether you're wagering on the Ravens or betting on yourself to make a 10-footer to win a $10 nassau.
Lee Trevino once said, "If you want to get good at golf, try playing someone for $50 when you only have $10 on you. That will make you good in a hurry." And to that end, I get it. Gambling in golf definitely increases your attention to detail.
My job as a parent is to properly educate my children on gambling. Like anything else, if it's done in moderation it can be enjoyable. I wouldn't want my son or daughter to develop a "gambling addiction" in the same way I wouldn't want them to develop an addiction to alcohol. I have work to do over the next few years to make sure I properly educate my two children on the good and bad about gambling.
But sports gambling is here and it's here to stay. It's not going anywhere. I'll bet you anything you want it's here for the long haul.
bet it all paul says.......
I generally like to play game totals and first half totals more than I do spreads. You're relying more on game flow and tendencies when you go with totals, which I find easier to handicap.
I do like one NFL spread a lot today, though, so let's start there.
I am not a believer in the L.A. Rams just yet, but I think today's game in Green Bay sets up very well for them, especially with Aaron Rodgers banged up and Jordan Love waiting in the wings. If you're the Rams, your #1 game plan has to be get Rodgers out of the game, which is where guys like Von Miller and Aaron Donald come into play.
I'm taking the Rams and laying the 1.5 points in Green Bay today. I like the Rams so much I will probably throw 200 coffee beans at this one.
In college hoops, I love Arkansas today giving up 19.0 to a Penn team that just lost to Towson earlier this week. I also like the "under" total of 148.5 here, as the Razorbacks win 89-55. I'm not much of a parlay guy but let's throw 100 beans on this one to win 330 beans.
The Drake-Belmont first half scoring total is 67.5 and I love the "over" total here. Both teams will come out shooting in this one before settling in for a more of a defensive posture in the second half. 100 beans on the first half "over" 67.5.
The Brown-Quinnipiac game has an inviting first half total of 63.5 and in this one I think the "under" is a great opportunity. Neither of these teams have prolific offenses and the thought here is they both take a while to get going. I look for a 30-27 halftime score or something along those lines. We're throwing 100 beans on the "under" 63.5 in the first half.
Back to the NFL, the one game total I really like today is in the Tampa Bay-Indianapolis game. I'm going all in on this one to the tune of 500 beans on the "over" 53.0 for the game.
Those are the five wagers I'll be making today and the wagering amounts I'll play. As always, gamble within your own means and enjoy the games!
"get this done before christmas!"
The builders have been slowing down at our beachhouse in Dewey. So much so that I had to have a talk with the foreman this week.
"I want this place done by Christmas!" I demanded.
"But you're running a little low on cash, Mr. Forrester," he replied.
"Cash-smash," I said. "There's always a new slate of football games coming up. Don't you worry, we'll crush 5 games again this weekend, like we've been doing all season, and you'll have more money than you know what to do with."
So here are those five games. By the way, we upgraded the hardwood floors in the kitchen last week. Originally we planned on spending about $4,500 but now we're going to spend roughly $10,000. What the heck, you only live once, right?
STEELERS AT BENGALS (-3.5) -- This is the day. This is the game. This, today, is when we find out if the Bengals are legit or not. Over the years, this is a game the Steelers would win, probably by 13-10 or 16-14. Pittsburgh would always figure out a way to win. But they won't today. The Bengals prove they're "real" with an easy cover in a 27-13 win over Pittsburgh.
PANTHERS AT DOLPHINS (+2.5) -- The Dolphins have somehow won three straight and they're home underdogs to Carolina? I don't get that one at all. This feels like one of those games Carolina will win if they're playoff worthy, but something tells us Miami's heater continues this afternoon. We'll take the Dolphins and the 2.5 points in a 26-23 win at the buzzer.
TITANS AT PATRIOTS (-7.0) -- It sure feels like people are giving up Tennessee these days. I guess losing at home to the Texans gives everyone probable cause, huh? I realize they have no running back and their talented wide receiver, A.J. Brown, was placed on the injured reserve list on Saturday, but they still have a competent quarterback and some other weapons. We'll take Tennessee plus the 7 points here and begrudgingly call a New England win, 21-16.
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS (+2.5) -- There was a point early in the season when Los Angeles looked like a Super Bowl contender. A mid-season slump stopped that chatter, but they've been better of late and are again starting to look like they might be a tough out in January. This game today will tell us all we need to know about the Chargers? Contender or Pretender? We think they're a contender and we'll take Los Angeles on the road today and give up 2.5 points in a 27-23 win over Denver.
VIKINGS AT 49'ERS (+3.5) -- Both of these teams are 5-5 and this game could be pivotal in a variety of ways in terms of playoff impact. San Francisco has not been very good at home (1-4) while the Vikings are 2-3 away from home and that includes gift-wrapping a game to the Ravens in Baltimore a few weeks ago. We're going with Minnesota and the 3.5 points here and we even think the Vikings win outright, 32-30.
BEST BET OF THE DAY -- We'll take Cincinnati at home giving the Steelers 3.5 points. We just don't see Pittsburgh being able to score enough points to hang close in this one.
OVERALL RECORD: 28-27
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 1-4
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 5-6
| Saturday November 27, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2652 |
saturday stuff
Before we delve into a few Saturday morning sports topics, I'm excited to welcome back Dale Williams for his 7th season of covering Maryland basketball for #DMD.
You'll find Dale's Maryland-Louisville preview below. Remember, the game starts at 10:00 am this morning.
As you'll see throughout the season if you follow Dale's work here, there aren't many people around who know college basketball the way he does. His pre-game analysis is thorough and complete. I'm bragging on him a bit here because he won't do it himself, but Dale often goes back and watches two or three games of Maryland basketball opponents in an effort to complete the most complete preview he can.
And his post-game work, which always appears here the morning after the game, is as good as any you'll find anywhere, regardless of the "status" of the publication.
If you're a Maryland hoops junkie, no one in town will deliver you the pre-game or post-game information you'll get from #DMD and Dale Williams. I'll put his knowledge up against anyone in town, including guys on the team's flagship radio station and any of the Terps-related websites you can find on the internet.
We're fortunate to have Dale with us, that's for sure.
As I anticipated and wrote here on numerous occasions, "The Match" between Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau failed to deliver in a big way on Friday. Koepka won 4&3, which means, for the golf novices out there, that he was 4 holes ahead with 3 holes remaining.
And even that sorta-kinda got screwed up, as DeChambeau had 20 feet for birdie at the 9th hole and Koepka had 10 feet for birdie and when DeChambeau missed his putt, he conceded Koepka's birdie putt since he rightly assumed Brooks wouldn't three putt from 10 feet. So, if you were playing it by the letter of the golf scoring law, Brooks actually won the match 5&3. But that's neither here nor there, really.
I didn't actually catch any of it until they were on the 3rd green. Two holes later, I was already clicking the remote to see if any worthwhile college basketball games were on or if Training Day or The Green Mile were airing on one of the movie channels.
Look, I get the whole premise of the event. You have two guys who "apparently" don't like one another and they're going to settle things on the golf course. Seems like that concept might work, right?
Except it didn't work. Not at all. I've seen more tension at the Clifton Park weekend "Slam Bang" or the Eagle's Nest Tuesday Night men's league. It just didn't work yesterday.
DeChambeau is far too odd and nerdy to "needle" anyone or make things uncomfortable. In fact, his personality is just the opposite. He wants to hit 400 yard drives and have people "ooooh and ahhhhh" at him while he compliments their iron play and putting. Bryson might have a mercurial personality and all, but he's simply not a guy that is going to dive in and trade snarky barbs back and forth with someone he's pretending not to like in the first place.
And Koepka was so bored with the whole thing he was almost falling asleep at the wheel of his golf cart the whole time. Truthfully, the whole "Brooks dislikes Bryson" angle was woefully overplayed by the media. The reality? Koepka doesn't really like anyone. He doesn't have a lot of friends on TOUR (by his own admission) and he's far too busy trying to act like he's too cool for everyone to actually be too cool for everyone.
The whole thing was forced from the start and it just didn't work yesterday. The golf wasn't any good, as Koepka's new Srixon driver was a disaster and he couldn't find a fairway to save his life. I love how, at one point, he said, mocking Bryson, "I love this new driver. I love it." I'm sure the first call he made afterwards was to the Srixon rep: "Hey, man, I can't keep hitting those powder puff 290 yard whiffs to the right. Get me in something new before next season."
DeChambeau's driver was fine, but the rest of his game wasn't up to par. "I haven't played in two months," he kept saying. "But that's an excuse," he would quickly add. Uhhh, it sure sounded like an excuse, Bryson. But it was on the greens where DeChambeau's golf was really poor. He made one decent length putt for par at #1 and that was it for the day.
The broadcasting duo of Charles Barkley and Phil Mickelson? Tuurrrrible. Barkley had a couple of funny lines ("Yoga is just stretching that you pay money to do") but his lack of knowledge was glaring and the questions he asked were either silly or not at all important.
"Hey, Phil, how important is the caddie?" sounded like a question from someone who got pulled from the crowd and was allowed to ask one question of the 6-time major champion.
And Mickelson, for all of his wit and wisdom, fell terribly short of making an impact yesterday. He actually threw out more barbs and jabs at the two players than they threw at themselves. Mickelson and Tiger originally "owned" the entity that was aired yesterday and they played against one another in the first one, where Phil won $9 million. In the aftermath, Woods asked to re-do the deal between the two and Mickelson politely told him to buzz off. So, now, Phil owns it himself and has to figure out a way to make the event interesting and keep himself in the spotlight as well.
Phil is very smart and incredibly gifted on the air and the guess here is he will someday replace Nick Faldo in the booth for CBS, but yesterday's effort was a miss for him. He will be very good on serious broadcasts down the road, though. I do believe that.
There were some good things about the broadcast and the event. Having both players wear bluetooth "air pods" that allowed them to hear what was being said and providing them the chance to speak with the announcing team was a nice touch. It's probably something the major networks should at least consider doing for their "regular season" golf broadcasts. Allowing the two competitors to continue playing after the match ended and having them bet money (which went to charity) was also cool. Frankly, the only time all day DeChambeau even looked interested was when he got the opportunity to outdrive Koepka in the long drive portion of the event.
"The Match" has a long way to go to become a Thanksgiving weekend sports staple. The bet here is it doesn't work, long term, unless there are some new guys on TOUR who can needle and rib one another and make it interesting for 3 hours.
Yesterday wasn't interesting at all. Or, at the very least, it didn't come close to matching the build up and the so-called "disdain" the two guys have for one another. It just wasn't there.
Tomorrow night's Ravens-Browns game is setting up to be one of the more critical regular season home games of the John Harbaugh era,, as Baltimore looks to even their division record at 1-1 and move to 8-3 on the year.
A win tomorrow also helps flush Cleveland out of the way, which is important. But a loss would mean the Ravens are 0-2 at home to division opponents and would also mean the best they can do in the division is go 4-2. It stands to reason 11-6 is likekly going to be good enough to win the division, so it's not like tomorrow night is "win or go home", but it's certainly a critical contest for Baltimore.
They're not really going to let Baker Mayfield and his rag-arm come to Baltimore and beat them, are they?
As is always the case, Lamar Jackson will be the key tomorrow night. Is he 100% recovered from the virus that kept him out of last Sunday's thriller in Chicago? How are the Browns going to scheme against Lamar defensively, knowing he's likely to run the ball somewhere around 15 times himself? What will Greg Roman do with the rest of the offensive game plan?
This is a big one tomorrow night, on a variety of levels. It's not "must win" by any means, but if we're playing H-O-R-S-E, I'd say the game's value is "M-U". It's pretty close to must win, in other words.
If the '21-22 NHL season is Alex Ovechkin's Mona Lisa, I can't wait to see the finished product next spring. The 36-year old Capitals veteran is the MVP of the NHL campaign at the quarter-mark, as he now has 18 goals in 21 games after last night's hat trick in Washington's 4-3 win over Florida.
Ovi is second in the league in scoring (36 points), trailing only Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl, who also leads Ovechkin in goals (20 to 18). Ovechkin is also 4th in the league in plus/minus at +16.
The Caps are off to a scorching start. They have lost just 3 games in regulation thus far, going 13-3-5 to start the campaign. They're technically tied for first in the Metropolitan Division with equally-scorching-hot Carolina (15-3-1), but the Hurricanes have played two fewer games.
Editor's note: Speaking of the Hurricanes, they were able to do God's work last night in Philadelphia, beating the worst franchise in the history of sports, 6-3. Sorry, Flyers. Hope you had a nice Thanksgiving at least.
Ovechkin is, of course, in hot pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's career goal scoring mark of 894. The Great Eight started the season at 730 goals and now has 748 for his career. He still has a long way to go, obviously, but if he can somehow get to 775 at the end of the '21-22 campaign, he can start chipping away over the next three years and make a serious run at the mark.
The Russian sharpshooter has done it all in his NHL career. He's been an MVP, a leading scorer and a Stanley Cup champion. The only thing left for him? To somehow pass Gretzky as the all-time leading goal scorer. It's starting to look more and more like it might be possible. If nothing else, the chase is officially on, which makes for good theater.
terps-louisville preview
In the not too distant past, a Louisville/Maryland match-up on Thanksgiving Saturday would have warranted a prime TV spot on one of the big networks.
This morning, these two teams will need to set their alarm clocks for an early rise if they want to be awake for the 10:00 A.M. tip off in the final of the Bahamas Championship in Nassau. The Terps earned a spot in today's finale by virtue of their comeback win against Richmond. Louisville handled Mississippi State, 72-58, to gain the matchup with Maryland.
Maryland has struggled to get going this year (and that might be a bit kind) but the 2021-2022 Cardinals haven't exactly resembled the teams of the Denny Crum era. Playing without their head coach, Chris Mack, the Cards are sporting a 4-1 record with a loss to Furman and a close call win against Detroit Mercy. Mack is serving a six-game suspension for his mishandling of the Dino Gaudio extortion attempt.
The likely match-ups in this non-conference game lead me to believe that we could see a hotly contested 40 minutes. Here's a quick primer on the Cardinals:
Louisville will shoot a bunch of threes today, and they will miss a large majority of them. (Sound familiar Terp fans?). I expect them to defend in the half court with good pressure, but they are very susceptible to dribble penetration when the pace becomes more up-tempo. One key for Maryland – finish when they get to the rim.
Noah Locke, a McDonogh grad who transferred from Florida, is the only Card to currently average double-digit points (13.2). I'd grade him as an average shooter (40%, 34% from 3), but he is athletic and can get himself open off of the dribble. He'll present real trouble for, and challenge the defensive quickness of, Eric Ayala or Hakim Hart. Don't be surprised to see Ian Martinez or even Xavier Green attempting to neutralize Locke. When Locke needs a break, you see El Ellis. Ellis is also pretty quick with the ball, but he has issues getting his shots to fall.
The "Battle of the Bigs" will be interesting to watch and should also play a vital role in determining the outcome of this championship. The Terp's Qudus Wahab must play bigger and stronger if he is to neutralize Louisville's 6'11", 240-pound fifth year senior, Malik Williams. Williams is not a prolific scoring center, but Wahab needs to keep the Louisville center's offensive numbers below the 7.0 ppg that Williams currently averages. Wahab has yet to show me strong interior post defense, but he'll need to body-up Williams to keep the Cardinal "big" off of the offensive glass.
I expect points to be at a premium today, and cheap buckets around the rim will spell doom for either squad. Louisville is very Terp-like in skill level. Neither team should have a distinct advantage in shooting, passing, and ball handling skills, but the Cardinals do possess a more athletic starting five. What they lack, physically, is someone to match the speed of Maryland's Fatts Russell.
Russell should be able to get inside, and the Terp's offensive success will largely be in his hands. Fatts has, at times, struggled to make good decisions while in the paint. He has also been a little loose protecting the ball (a team high 16 turnovers so far). A big game from their speedy playmaker, and the Terps win this game. Louisville's Jerrod West should get the defensive assignment against Russell, but I think he lacks the quickness required to stay in front of the shifty Terp point guard.
I would expect to see Maryland's Donta Scott locking horns with Jae'Lyn Withers. These two are similar with their offensive repertoire, with each player being more of a face-up guy and less of a back-to-the-basket player. Withers has a slimmer frame, and real nice bounce. He's not as bulky as Maryland's Scott, and will be a better perimeter defender, and scorer, than Scott frequently sees. Both of these players will have nice games today, with the net effect being a wash.
Maryland has found the going a bit rougher than many would have expected. That includes the writers and coaches who erroneously had them ranked as high as #21. The Terp's 5-1 record sports a loss to George Mason and a scant two-point win against Hofstra. They had to come from 12 points back against Richmond just to get to today's final. In the Richmond game, Hakim Hart hit 8 of 9 shots from the field and made 4 of 5 3-pointers, bailing out his team. Maryland can't depend on that type of Hart production today.
This Terp team has plenty of holes, and must show constant improvement if they want to have a productive season. They are not exceptionally athletic and the roster lacks pure shooters. Wahab needs to up his physical presence inside and Donta Scott can't continue his horrid 3-point shooting (27%).
I do expect Maryland to improve as the new pieces become more familiar with one another and as Mark Turgeon figures out his most productive rotations.
That being said, in a game that looks to be so even, (some books have the Terps as a 1-point fav, some have them as a 1-point dog), I'll take the better point guard and a big man who can make foul shots. Both of those belong to Maryland. If Turgeon's team can keep Locke from going off, limit Louisville second chance points, and get to the rim, then they can return home with a nice piece of hardware for the trophy cabinet.
In a relatively low scoring game, Fatts gets 7 assists, Ayala gets 16 points, Wahab and Scott chip in 15 each, and a defensive minded Terrapin team grabs a 70-66 win.
| Friday November 26, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2651 |
leftovers
You people are really starting to lose it.
I'm talking about the group in the area who have it out for Mark Turgeon. You're embarrassing yourself at this point.
I understand how these fan-witch-hunts work. You latch on to something and you simply can't let go, mainly because if you release your grip on the topic at hand, you might someday face the fact that you were wrong.
I'll repeat it for the 830th time. I'm certainly not part of the Mark Turgeon Fan Club. I've never been part of it and I don't imagine I'll ever carry the card in my wallet, either.
But I can at least acknowledge when things go right for him and the Terps, which they did last night when Maryland battled back from a 12-point deficit and beat a good Richmond team, 86-80. That was a nice win, particularly given they were coming off a loss, were playing in the equivalent of a middle school cafeteria in the Bahamas and, like I mentioned, dug themselves a double-digit hole in the first half.
The haters, though, couldn't handle a win, which is the saddest part of the witch hunt. People despise Turgeon so much now that they are secretly pulling against Maryland just so they get another opportunity to pile on.
You know you've lost it when your own agenda has replaced your love for the player, team or program.
And when the team wins and you can't just say, "Nice win" and move on, you're at the bottom of the barrel.
"Should have never been down 12 in the first place."
Smart people would realize the other team tries, too. The game rarely goes exactly the way you anticipated it might. Would you rather be down by 12 and go on to lose by 18 or would you rather be down by 12 and come back to win by 6? #clownshoes
"Celebrating wins over Richmond isn't something big programs should be doing."
Smart people realize how the schedule works. It gets published in the off-season and then you play the teams listed on the schedule. You try and win all the games. The margin of victory is really of no consequence or importance. You win and you're happy, you're lose and you're disappointed. As Nick Saban told a gathering of knuckleheads last week in Tuscaloosa, "Every win should be celebrated because they're hard to come by."
"Yeah, so they beat Richmond. But what about that loss to George Mason?"
Smart people would realize putting any kind of emphasis or importance on a previous game is how you lose the next game. That would be like saying, "Yeah, so the Ravens beat the Bears, but what about that Dolphins loss?" That defeat in Miami is back-burner stuff now. It's over. It happened. Nothing can change it. Move on to the Browns and keep churning. The same for the Terps. Learn something from the loss to George Mason and move on to the next game."
"OK, so they came back and beat Richmond. Let's see them do something in March."
Smart people would realize it's pretty dumb to talk about March in November. You have to get to March first...by winning games in November. March, of course, is the barometer by which everyone in college basketball is judged. If you're good in the regular season and then stub your toe in the tournament, something's wrong. Folks forget, of course, that once you get past the first round of the tournament, 80% of the teams still remaining could all knit together a winning streak and make it to the Final Four. In other words, you're facing Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux and, ummmm, they're pretty good at what they do. People also tend to forget that 350 Division I teams start the season and only FOUR of them wind up playing in the Final Four. (For Flyers fans, that's why they call it the Final Four). Your school's chances of making it to the Final Four are very slim indeed.
This is going to go on all season, of course. By "this", I mean the Turgeon witch hunt. It's not going away, in the same way the prodding and poking at Aaron Rodgers isn't going to go away, either. People get caught up in these pursuits and can't let go.
If nothing else, Turgeon haters make for good business at places like this, or Testudo Times, or any other website that dedicates itself to covering sports or Maryland athletics in the Baltimore/DC area.
The only way everyone gets shut up is if Maryland makes it to the Final Four. And that, even, might not be good enough, because if Maryland somehow did make it to the Final Four but lost to Kansas or Kentucky or Villanova, the first thing these goofs would say is, "I knew he wasn't as good as Gary..."
By the way, speaking of last night's game, that was a remarkable performance from Hakim Hart (24 points). The players deserve credit when they play well and they deserve scrutiny when they don't. Hart turned in an impressive game last night. And that's coming from someone (me) who thinks he's more suited for Richmond-level basketball, frankly. The kid showed something on Thursday night. Good for him.
Maryland trailed by eight points last night with less than seven minutes remaining and somehow came back to win that game. That's what should be celebrated. You people who can't do that because of your disdain for Turgeon should sit the rest of the season out. You're no good to the program at this point.
Much will be made about the officiating in yesterday's trio of NFL games and there's no doubt it all deserves a thorough review, no pun intended.
The Raiders-Cowboys game was particularly frustrating to watch, especially if you're a Dallas fan. The final pass interference call on Anthony Brown -- his 4th of the game -- was the one making front page news today, because it helped set up the Raiders' game-winning field goal in overtime.
It sure looked like the Las Vegas receiver had his hands around Brown's neck, but it's fair to point out that Brown wasn't facing the quarterback and looking at the ball, either. All in all, though, it sure appears as if "no call" was the order of the day on that particular play.
It's here where we should point out that while that specific play definitely influenced overtime, there's little reason to think the Raiders weren't going to cruise through that Dallas defense and score in sudden death anyway. Even without their top weapons (Ruggs=gone from the team, Waller=injured) on offense, Derek Carr and the Raiders sliced and diced the Cowboys secondary all day. But that call on Brown.......yikes.
Here's the thing, though. Just when you get ready to pile on the officials for their inadequate performance, you look at Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions. And you realize that everyone is capable of doing something dumb.
Campbell, a NFL head coach, called consecutive timeouts in the 4th quarter and was hit with a 5-yard penalty which aided in Chicago's game-winning field goal in a 16-14 win.
The first-year coach tried to poo-poo the whole scene at the end of the game saying "I knew it was a penalty, but we had half the defense in one scheme and half in the other. I could either call timeout there and cost us five yards or use a timeout to get our defensive alignment figured out."
Yeah, coach, I'm not so sure I'm believing that one. But anyway...
There was also some woeful clock management by the Raiders in their overtime win over Dallas, as Las Vegas essentially gave Dallas 40 extra seconds before they went ahead 33-30 with 1:52 remaining. Dak Prescott then drove the Cowboys down the field to tie the game, but he had 1:52 to do it instead of roughly 1:10 to do it.
I know the officials stink. I think we see examples of that week in and week out. I also know the game is played at a frenetic pace and I also know that more often than not, the calll on the field is actually a "good" call. But there are far too many ticky-tack calls being made these days, at least to this viewer.
That said, the coaches have just as many blunders as the officials, it seems. They're dealing with the same frenetic pace, of course, but it shouldn't be lost on anyone that the coaches stand up after the game and hint about poor officiating and yet, they decided to have their offense run two plays just prior to the 2-minute warning in a tie game.
Congratulations to the Loyola Dons on their 41-35 win over Calvert Hall in yesterday's Turkey Bowl at Towson University.
I don't know how many high school football games I've seen in my life, but I can say without hesitation that was immediately a Top 5 game and could have been -- as many were saying leaving the stadium -- the best one I've ever seen.
Just over 8,000 fans were there. Both teams stood for the national anthem. The game was played hard and fair. It was football the way it was meant to be played. In the end, Loyola hit the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a perfectly thrown ball into the corner of the end zone.
The Dons, who lost the B Conference championship last week, had dropped six straight Turkey Bowl games.
As I told my son -- a freshman at Calvert Hall -- on the drive home, "Give Loyola credit. They were tired of losing every year and did something about it. The other team has pride, too."
What's interesting is this: As a "B Conference" school (in football), which was the outlier for Loyola? Yesterday's performance over Calvert Hall -- the A Conference champion -- or last Saturday's 14-3 defeat in the B Conference championship game to a Concordia team they had defeated 41-9 just two weeks earlier?
I would say the Concordia loss was the outlier. They certainly looked like an "A Conference" program yesterday. Loyola has some legitimate talent on both sides of the ball, including defensive end Anto Saka, who is headed for Northwestern. I have no idea why he isn't headed to College Park, but that young man (6'4", 245) had a whopper of a game yesterday and is destined for good things at Northwestern.
The season was a good one for Calvert Hall and head coach Josh Ward, as the Cardinals won their first league title since 2010. They'll return a number of key players in 2022, including quarterback Noah Brannock, who will play Division I football at a high level starting in September of 2023. But yesterday's loss will sting for a year until the teams gather again on Thanksgiving Day to celebrate a wonderful Baltimore tradition.
Today's edition of "Faith in Sports" takes us inside the NFL to see how some of the game's stars rely on their faith to get them through the grind and tough times of a football season.
We generally just assume talent gets the players through every game, but it's far, far deeper than that, as Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning will attest in the video below.
Please take 10 minutes out of your Friday to watch this video. It's inspiring to hear these players talk about their relationship with God and Jesus Christ.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Free State Electrical for their continued support of our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment.
| Thursday November 25, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2650 |
happy thanksgiving
Coffee.
Calvert Hall vs. Loyola at Towson University.
Turkey, mashed potatoes, vegetables and, I'm sure, lots of other stuff I'm leaving out.
NFL football.
A nap.
That's what's on my agenda for today. I assume your Thanksgiving Day looks similar in nature.
Whatever your plans are for today, I hope you have a great Thanksgiving celebration. This is a day to give thanks, for anything and everything you have in your life.
I'm grateful and thankful for all of you who come here each day -- or whenver you might stop by -- to check out Drew's Morning Dish. Thank you.
May God grace all of you and your family members with an abundance of good health and meaningful relationships with loved ones and friends alike.
Every Thanksgiving, I take a minute to remember a special tradition in my life that lasted roughly five or six years, circa 1980.
I was a participant in a faith-based group called "Young Life" back then (which still exists today) and we had a large group of guys from Glen Burnie in the chapter I attended.
One year, we decided to get together to play soccer on Thanksgiving morning and for reasons I don't recall, we somehow wound up playing at the Naval Academy. This took place on the athletic field on the base, not at the actual Navy football stadium. The times, obviously, have changed quite a bit. Back in 1980, we roamed around the Naval facility like we belonged there. That wouldn't happen today, I suspect.
Anyway, one of the guys in the group was a lacrosse goalie and he had, again, for reasons I don't remember, six or so lacrosse goalie sticks in his car.
He brought those out to the soccer field, we kicked the ball around for a few minutes, and then someone said, "We should let some of the guys use lacrosse sticks in addition to being able to kick the ball." You can tell we were 18 year old kids with blossoming imaginations. Playing soccer wasn't good enough. We had to do something else to make the game unique.
Anyway, we played that first year, 12 guys running around playing soccer, trying to kick soccer balls into lacrosse goals. Three guys on each team also ran around with lacrosse goalie sticks and could scoop up the ball and throw it instead of kicking it. I know, it sure seems silly now. But it wasn't back then.
I distinctly recall people walking along the path that borders the Severn River and watching us play, a few of them even stopping to ask about the inclusion of the lacrosse sticks.
We made it an annual thing for five years, maybe six, before everyone got older and started moving away, etc. Every Thanksgiving from 1980-1985, a dozen guys from Glen Burnie would get together at 8:30 am on Thanksgiving morning and play what we called "Soc-crosse" at the Naval Academy.
The times sure have changed. But those were great days.
If you've established any interesting or memorable Thanksgiving Day traditions, please feel free to share them below.
"bet it all paul" is ready to feast
I guess I'm back for another week, as Drew asked me to submit something for today's schedule of sports action. I did have a good week and weekend last week. At one point I hit 11 straight NHL and NBA games before I hit a rut on Tuesday night. My football picks here last week were solid. I'll be back on Sunday with some more picks for this week's games.
Here is who I like today.
LIONS AND BEARS OVER 41.5 -- The Lions are not good, but they're also not as bad as 0-9-1. I think Jared Goff returning at QB is enough to get their offense going and Andy Dalton will throw the ball around for Chicago just enough for this game to get into the mid 40's. Someone wins 24-20. Play the total in this one and take the "over" 41.5 points.
COWBOYS (-7) OVER RAIDERS -- Both teams are injured and rosters are a little depleted, but Las Vegas is really scuffling over the last three weeks and a short week trip to Dallas isn't going to help them. The Cowboys will run the ball to the tune of 150 yards and they'll win this one by double digits. Our play here is to take Dallas and give the 7 points to Las Vegas.
SAINTS (+6.5) VS. BILLS -- I don't do "5 star" games or anything like that but this one is definitely intriguing to me because I think everything points to Buffalo bouncing back after last Sunday's loss to the Colts. And that means, take the Saints and the points at home, especially on a short week. Buffalo might pull this one out but those 6.5 points are too inviting to pass up. We like New Orleans plus 6.5 tonight.
IONA (+12.0) VS. ALABAMA -- One college hoops game I like tonight is Iona (5-0) plus 12.0 vs. Alabama down in Orlando. These neutral site games have a way of favoring the mid-major underdog and I think Iona has a chance to keep this one close tonight and possibly even pull off the outright upset. Iona is +600 on the moneyline. You wouldn't be dumb to throw 100 on them at that price just in case, then also play them at +12.0 and add in the "Over" 149.0 while you're at it.
| Wednesday November 24, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2649 |
wednesday nuggets
We're at that point in the NFL season where the Sunday Night games that were originally scheduled can be swapped out for more meaningful games that might make for more attractive match-ups.
It's a shame they can't do that for Thanksgiving Day games as well. Tomorrow, for instance, we get treated to that rousing NFC North match-up between the Bears and Lions. That one should be a doozy. The good news is the game's at 12:30 pm and most of the country will be eating their meal at some point during that one.
In case you haven't bothered to look ahead, Dallas hosts the Las Vegas Raiders at 4:30 pm tomorrow and Buffalo is in New Orleans tomorrow night at 8:20 pm.
Anyway, back to Sunday night games.
This Sunday, of course, the Ravens and Browns play in Baltimore. That one's a winner for NBC, even with two other games of similar marquee value also on the docket; New England hosts Tennessee and Green Bay hosts the Los Angeles Rams.
But next Sunday night's game has already been changed. It was originally San Francisco at Seattle but the league announced yesterday that Denver at Kansas City will now be played on Sunday night instead. Baltimore at Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals were evidently also considered for the switch. Patrick Mahomes is apparently still important to the networks and, as we know, to a certain insurance company that pays a lot of the television bills in the league.
On Sunday, December 12, the Bears are slated to visit the Packers on Sunday Night football. I can't imagine that game is going to stick. Others that might be considered? Baltimore at Cleveland, Las Vegas at Kansas City or the marquee game of the day, Buffalo at Tampa Bay. It seems likely that CBS has protected that Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay game and wouldn't want to lose a chance to showcase Tom Brady. And the fact that Tampa Bay hosts New Orleans the following Sunday Night means its unlikely they'll go for two straight weeks of TB12. NBC might like having Aaron Rodgers on the Sunday Night game, but more Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be a bad thing, either.
In week 15, December 19, it's the aforementioned New Orleans at Tampa Bay contest on Sunday Night Football, so that seems like an unlikely move. There is a decent game on the schedule that day -- Tennessee at Pittsburgh -- but New Orleans will likely still be in the playoff hunt and the Buccaneers have Tom Brady. That game sticks.
On December 26, Washington is at Dallas on Sunday night. The networks never like casting aside the chance to show the Cowboys, so it's unlikely that game gets swapped out. But Buffalo does play at New England that day. And the Ravens are at Cincinnati. The Washington-Dallas game is a rivalry, but it might not mean much in the NFC East by that point. The other two games could go a long way in deciding division titles.
Minnesota at Green Bay is the current Sunday Night game for week 17, January 2. Kansas City is at Cincinnati that day and Arizona is at Dallas. Both CBS and FOX would probably like to keep those games and Minnesota vs. Green Bay could have a significant impact on the NFC North and the NFC playoff race in general. It seems likely week 17 stays as is.
On the final weekend of the regular season, the league has the option of actually moving THREE games to prime-time slots; two on Saturday (4:25 and 8:15) and one on Sunday (8:20). Those games will be announced in late December or early January. There are a number of very attractive match-ups for consideration for the three showcased TV games; Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Dallas at Philadelphia and the L.A. Chargers at Las Vegas. Expect the Ravens-Steelers game to be flexed to one of the two night-time slots.
I realize the Orioles' outfield is already somewhat crowded, but the Birds could do a lot worse than kicking the tires on erstwhile New York Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier. Frazier is only 27, remember, and would likely come in on a one year "show me" kind of deal that would fit nicely with the Orioles and their budgetary constraints.
No, he was not good last year in New York. He was injured for most of the season and when he did play, he was highly unproductive. Hence, that's why the Yankees released him earlier this week. They simply gave up on him.
Frazier's biggest challenge in his 5-year big league career has been staying healthy. And it could come to pass he's just one of those guys who plays 70 games a season because he's always hurt. If that's the case, he won't be in the big leagues much longer.
But other than 2021, which was a disaster in virtually every category, Frazier has displayed, at times, a decent average, decent power numbers and a good on-base percentage. He's not a great player, by any means, but he might be a guy, if he ever puts together a full season, that turns into a good investment. He made $2 million in 2021. The guess here is you can probably get him for half that in 2022, or perhaps a 2-year deal in the $3 million range is even a possibility.
This would be different if Frazier had just celebrated his 33rd birthday. But he turned 27 two months ago. In baseball terms, he's right in his peak years of production, one would think. I realize the Orioles have an abundance of "he's just a guy" outfielders already, but Frazier, at his age and salary, is worth a gamble.
We're talking about a team that gave Felix Hernandez a chance to make the team last spring, remember. Clint Frazier wouldn't be a worse roll of the dice than Hernandez, that's for certain.
Oh, and speaking of pitchers and opportunities, I wish the Orioles would have been in on Steven Matz, who signed a 4-year, $44 million deal in St. Louis yesterday. Now, for all I know, maybe they were in on Matz before he decided to join the Cardinals. Alas, he's the kind of guy the O's could add to their pitching staff and not break the bank in doing so.
Matz is only 30 years old and had a really nice year with the Blue Jays in 2021. He was part of that 2009 New York Mets draft class that included Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey. It took him a while to finally get it together, but Matz looks like he could be a useful arm in St. Louis.
A report in The Athletic yesterday indicated the Orioles are listening to offers on John Means, who had a remarkable first half of the '21 season -- including a no-hitter -- but then fell victim to be a sore shoulder and was lousy in the second half of the season. If the Orioles can pinch someone for a few decent prospects or one "play in a year or two" prospect for Means, they should certainly consider moving him on. I've been saying this for a while now; the only two guys I wouldn't trade are Mullins and Mountcastle, and I'd never-say-never with those two, either. If someone blew me away with an Eric-Bedard-kind-of-deal for Mullins, I'd listen. Same with Mountcastle. But for the most part, I'm not looking to move those two guys. Everyone else can be had, though.
Adley Rutschman isn't available. I guess I should add that to avoid any confusion.
I saw my first "Brooks vs. Bryson" ad floating around on Twitter yesterday and it was honestly the first time I gave their big 12-hole "grudge match" this Friday even a passing thought. I completely forgot it was even happening.
I have no idea what I'm doing on Friday, so I can't say whether I'll watch any of it or not. The only reason I would watch it is because it's golf and I love golf. But in terms of getting caught up in "the rivalry" and all of that stuff...I couldn't be less interested.
The first Tiger vs. Phil "showdown" was at least partially interesting because they were playing for $9 million in cash. One putt for $9 million would have been pretty cool to see. But that event failed to sparkle, you might remember, mostly because $9 million to Tiger is like $90 to you and I and also because Phil wanted to beat Tiger way, way more than Tiger wanted to beat Phil. It just didn't have the energy an event like that needed, in my opinion.
I don't think Brooks vs. Bryson has any real energy at all.
Predictably, the two have taken to social media this week to start jabbing at one another and trying to build up interest in the big showdown.
Like the rest of their fabricated tense relationship, it all fell short of selling the drama in a way that would make Friday "must see TV".
Koepka is maintaining his same act; "I'm cool, Bryson isn't, he wants to be like me and he's not..."
And DeChambeau keeps acting like he's the kid getting bullied at recess; "I don't understand why he doesn't like me. I've never done anything to him. But now we've built up a disdain for one another that's pretty apparent."
I had to laugh at that one. This "disdain" you're referencing isn't enough to keep you guys from teeing it up for a few million bucks though. Come on Bryson, the cat's out of the bag. We know you two aren't best friends or anything like that, but this whole thing was initially just two guys who didn't run in the same circles and it morphed into Ali vs. Frazier when, as we know, it's not really anything even close to that.
Just go play golf, jab at one another a little, make a few jokes at each other's expense, collect your money.....and we'll see you next year.
Tiger's already winning the $8 million PIP bonus money anyway, so you two can stop this battle for the top prize.
Calvert Hall held its annual Fellowship of Christian Athletes Turkey Bowl "Huddle" yesterday morning at 7:30 at CHC and we were fortunate this year to have Ravens offensive lineman Tyre Phillips join us to share his testimony and talk to the students about his faith journey.
FCA meets every Thursday morning at Calvert Hall, with approximately 30 students attending each 45-minute Huddle. Every year, though, we gather on Tuesday before the Calvert Hall-Loyola Thanksgiving Day game and a special guest joins us to talk to the students. A couple of years ago it was Marlon Humphrey who stopped by. Matt Stover made an appearance a few years back.
It says a lot about the character of Tyre Phillips that he got up at 6:00 am on his day off to make the 30 minute trip to Towson and spend his morning at Calvert Hall. NFL players get one day off a week. It's Tuesday. That he gave up his "sleep in" morning to talk about faith and his own journey was impressive.
The last in my series on the impact of analytics in modern sport focuses on basketball. This will be the shortest of the pieces because one change, driven by data, has completely transformed the way the game is played: the 3 point line. Make no mistake: I don't think analytics and data are the only factor in the explosion of 3 point attempts but it certainly has pushed teams to look to it more over the last 10-15 years.
History
Many readers of this column will recall a time before there was a 3 point line. While it had been used in the old ABA the line didn't show up in the NBA until the 1979-1980 season. The NCAA followed suit a few years later with high schools joining shortly thereafter. I graduated from high school in 1987 and my recollection is that we had the 3 point line in my senior year (as I always say my recollection is hazy). I recall it was viewed as somewhat of a gimmick, at least initially.
Coaches and commentators certainly didn't love the 3 point line in the early days. It's funny reading a quote from Coach K who stated that he disagreed with the institution of the 3 point shot and believed a team "should have to work hard to get a basket". Other college coaches were more direct, pointing to the 3 point line as symptomatic of declining morality in the good old USA...WTF??
Of course, Duke averaged nearly 24 3 point attempts (3PA) per game last year and that number has more or less trended upwards over the last 20 years. I guess somewhere along the line Coach K had a change of heart...wonder why? The increase is mirrored in the NBA amongst the best players in the world. In the 1999-2000 season NBA teams averaged roughly 14 3PA per game. In the most recently completed season (20-21) that number was well in excess of 34. Only 4 NBA teams averaged less than 30 3PA per game last season with lowest just over 28.
Why the Change?
First off it's a more efficient shot than a mid range jumper. I doubt anyone needs analytics to understand that. A team shooting 35% from the 3 point line is equivalent to shooting over 52% from inside the 3 point arc (because of the extra point obviously). Certainly attainable by the best players when in close to the basket but not so much for players taking 15-18 foot jumpers. Not coincidentally, NBA mid-range jumper attempts have fallen in half in the 20 years ending in 2018-2019. Over the same period, 3 point attempts are up over 250%.
There is a stat that specifically measures the field goal percentage to account for the fact that so many more of the modern shots are 3PA. That measure is called "Effective Field Goal Percentage" and it has risen dramatically over the last 20 years from slightly over 47% to just under 54% last year. Effective Field Goal Percentage accounts for the extra point on a 3 point shot valuing a made 3PA more than a made 2PA.
The theory seems to be that there are more quality shooters now more than ever. Kids grow up with the 3 point line and practice from that distance throughout their youth. Obviously, one of the NBA's biggest stars, Steph Curry, shoots a ton of 3s and seemingly has no outer range. Oh and his sidekick, Klay Thompson, is pretty good behind the arc too. Kids look up to that duo and try to emulate them. Now the next generation of stars like Trae Young and Devin Booker are making their names as 3 point sharpshooters.
Even big men like Kevin Durant, Giannis and Dirk Nowitzki have gotten in the act of slinging 3s with varying degrees of success. The ability of these big men to shoot from the 3 point arc efficiently and put the ball on the floor and get to the basket has made them some of the best offensive big men in basketball history. It's incredibly difficult to guard a player that can pull up from 24 feet or put the ball on the floor and get to the basket.
Pace
The 3 point shot has also increased the pace of the games in the NBA considerably. It's not uncommon for a team to run the floor with pace only to pull up and take a three or kick it to a player camped out on the 3 point line. That would have been largely unheard of a generation ago.
In the late 1990s the average team had roughly 90 possessions per 48 minute game. For the last 4 years, that average has hovered around 100 possessions. If you are a coach, 10 extra possessions obviously means 10 extra opportunities to score. If you feel that your team is more efficient offensively than your opponent, you should try to squeeze every possession you can into the game. Marginal gains over a larger sample mean more points which means more wins. Of course, if your team is less efficient offensively the opposite approach should be the goal. But that does not seem to be happening.
Points Scored
As with football, the way the modern game is played has led to more points. Average points per game per team has increased from about 95 in 2000-2001 to over 112 last season. That's a nearly 18% increase in points in 20 years. All the while, Free Throw Attempts per game are down a bit over 12% in that same 20 year period.
Of course with all of this increased offensive pace and efficiency, some of the more "physical" stats are down. Shot blocks are down somewhat (although marginal) and offensive rebounding is down materially over the same 20 year period. Oddly, in spite of the increased pace, turnovers haven't really changed much at all since the late 80's (down very very slightly).
Other Analytical Tools
As with the other sports, there is a ton of data that is being aggregated and analyzed by teams. One of the more interesting branches of this analysis is Load Management. Load Management is a process whereby a team and its medical staff will monitor a player's physiological stress levels to try and predict when a player is most susceptible to injury. Players use wearable medical devices and if their vitals look worrisome they may get lighter practices, fewer game minutes or even sit out some games.
Given the stress these athletes are under and the number of games played this all makes sense. The athletes are assets to the teams and keeping those assets running optimally long term makes sense even if it requires some sacrifice in the short term. I know the Premier League is on the cutting edge of this as well given their compressed schedules.
Some of the more obscure data collected in basketball can determine a player's efficiency going to his offhand, for example. If he shoots better going to his right, for example, the team may implement plays to get that player a chance to do just that. Conversely, if the defense is aware of this efficiency difference, they will be inclined to try and defend that player going right and push him left.
Impact of Analytics on the Product of Basketball
I confess that I'm not much of an NBA fan. I'll watch on occasion or in the playoffs but generally it has never really been my thing. As I mentioned last week, I have long been an NHL fan. Given that their seasons more or less overlap, I suppose that interest in hockey has limited my attention for basketball.
Viewership for NBA games has been, at best, stagnant for a good number of years. It's hard to compare the last 3 or 4 years since the 2019-2020 season was cut short by COVID and the 2020-2021 was a compressed schedule that didn't start until around Christmas. By almost every metric that I saw, TV viewership is down. Regular season, playoffs and finals.
Viewership declines are also being seen for the final four for college ball. For example, last year's final between Baylor and Gonzaga drew 17 million viewers. For reference, Duke-Michigan drew 34.3 million in 1992. I do think there is some bias towards the big name, blue blood basketball programs but there is still a clear downward trend in viewership.
But is the decline due to the product on the courts, some of the political issues surrounding the league or disinterest in how the game is currently played? Seems impossible to know which is the primary factor or if it is a sum of all of those factors.
Anecdotally, I see tons of kids and friends of my kids that are still wide eyed watching Steph and Giannis and KD. They buy their jerseys and gear. They try to shoot like those guys and imitate their mannerisms. The same way my friends and I imitated Elvin Hayes and Len Bias. But that may be more about merchandising than actually creating more fans.
As with every other sport a lot of old timers seem quite angry by the way the game is currently played. The anger ranges from Charles Barkley saying that analytics are just repackaged statistics (he's not entirely wrong) to Kobe Bryant who believed that basketball intangibles and heart were more important than numbers.
I have to say I don't really understand the vitriol directed at these metrics. People get really mad at so much as the thought of them. The implication seems to be that players feel computer nerds are trying to say they know better than the players. I don't believe that to be the case. Analytics have always been meant to be a tool that can be used to help a team or player do marginally better in some way. Any analytics type that tells you it is more than that is either clueless or trying to sell something. The reality is that all of these analytical measurements take things that we used to measure by the eye test and attempt to quantify them. Some help tremendously while others are more obscure and perhaps don't provide as much utility.
| Tuesday November 23, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2648 |
outrageous...but perhaps true, too
I saw something on the internet yesterday. Where else would you see anything these days, right? No one's watching CNN any longer. The newspaper is a dying entity. The only thing left to "read" is the internet.
Anyway...someone wrote, with what appeared to be a legitimate, true "take": The Eagles could make the Super Bowl this year if things fall in their favor.
I thought to myself, "Who on earth would say that?"
But then I stopped and took a minute to look at who the Eagles, currently 5-6, have left on their schedule.
At the New York Giants. Toss-up there, but a game the Eagles should win.
At the New York Jets. I mean, if you can't go to into the Meadowlands and beat the Jets, you're not going to the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Joe Burrow. If Philly beats the two New York teams in back-to-back games, that puts them at 7-6.
Home vs. Washington. The guys from D.C. are playing better of late, but in Philly, the Eagles should win. They can't lose to D.C. in their own stadium. Now they're 8-6.
Home vs. New York Giants. Unless something wacky happens, now they're 9-6 with two weeks left.
At Washington. OK, this one could be problematic, especially if D.C. somehow is still fighting for a playoff spot. Let's pretend they somehow lose here. They're 9-7.
Home vs. Dallas. This one's for all the marbles, perhaps. A win and a 10-7 record could get Philadelphia into the post-season. Heck, for all we know, Dallas could need this game too, which would really make it interesting.
So, the Eagles, even though they're 5-6 right now, are most certainly alive and well in the NFC post-season chase. They have no one to blame but themselves if they don't finish at least 10-7. In fairness, they could win their last six games and finish 11-6. Nothing would surprise me.
Now, do I think the Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl? Absolutely not. But on a scale of 1-to-10, with 1 being the lukest of lukewarm chances and 10 being a slam dunk that they make the Super Bowl, I'd say the Eagles are a "3". The Lions, as an example, are a "0". The Jaguars are a "0". Atlanta is a "1". The Eagles are a "3".
So, I thought, what other wild-but-possible takes are out there that I can create? I didn't create the Eagles "take", but I see the slimmest-of-slim logic behind it. They have an easy schedule, could make the playoffs, and then anything happens from there.
Here are six hot takes for you to absorb. Have at it in the comments section if your feathers get ruffled.
The Buffalo Bills might not make the playoffs -- Crazy huh? Not really. They're 6-4 and heading to New Orleans this Thursday for a Thanksgiving Day encounter with the Saints. They lose there and they're 6-5. Then they have the Patriots (home), Buccaneers (away), Panthers (home), Patriots (away), Falcons (home) and Jets (away). If they lose both games to New England and at Tampa Bay, all the sudden they have 8 losses. Even if they go 2-1 there, they finish 10-7. The game in New Orleans this Thursday is huge for them. I'm telling you...as much as Buffalo has looked really good this season, you should keep in mind they lost at Jacksonville and just got boatraced in their own building by the Colts. Buffalo is far from a playoff lock.
The Chargers might very well end up the #1 seed in the AFC -- This one would not surprise me at all, actually. Los Angeles has two toughies left; at Cincinnati and home vs. Kansas City. Remember, they already dusted the Chiefs earlier this year in K.C., so there's no reason to think they can't beat them again. L.A. also has Denver (twice), the Raiders (away), NY Giants (home) and Houston (away). The Chargers are currently 6-4. If they get past the Bengals in two weeks and can beat the Chiefs again, they have a puncher's chance at going 13-4. I'll admit, 12-5 or 11-6 seems more likely, but momentum is a weird thing. That L.A. offense is pretty good, by the way.
Something will go wrong and the Cardinals will botch their easy road to the #1 seed -- Arizona should cruise to a 14-3 record and the #1 seed in the NFC. They're 9-2 now. Their remaining schedule: at Chicago (win), vs. Rams (?), at Lions (win), vs. Colts (?), at Cowboys (?) and vs. Seahawks (win). All they have to do is win 2 of the 3 games with the (?) involved and they finish 14-3. Alas, they won't do it. Something will go haywire and Arizona will stub their toe down the stretch and fail to hold on to the #1 seed. Remember that game they lost to Green Bay earlier this year? That one will come back to haunt them.
The Ravens might have to beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore on January 9 to make the playoffs -- I hate to say it, but it certainly could happen that way. If we're of the mindset that 10-7 will be the wild card number, the Ravens can't afford to lose four more games or tiebreakers get involved. They have 5 divisional games remaining, including all three road games against their AFC North rivals. Let's pretend they win 1 of those and lose 2. Now they have 5 losses. And if they stumble against the Rams and Packers -- both of those games could be losses, obviously -- they now have 7 losses. That means they'd be 9-7 heading into the final game against Pittsburgh. Do you know what all of this means? Very simple. This Sunday night's game is really important for the Ravens. They need to somehow get to 11 wins to guarantee themselves a playoff spot. Ten wins will get someone in...but it will get them in via tiebreaker. You'd rather not go down that road if you can avoid it. This Sunday is huge. Let's hope January 9th isn't huge.
The Chargers and Rams might wind up meeting in the Super Bowl after all -- The tickets for that one would be $10,000 each. Imagine the two L.A. teams getting to play in the L.A. stadium, for the championship. Seems crazy, but it's not crazy at all. The Chargers offense is really good. Their defense...not so much. But if they get in the post-season, they could definitely win three games. The Rams are hit or miss and their quarterback's never won anything of note, but they have skill position guys on both sides of the ball to win playoff games, especially if Von Miller makes his expected impact on defense. Los Angeles vs. Los Angeles? It could happen.
Someone you're not even remotely expecting -- right now -- will play in one of the two conference championship games -- Look around. Look closely at the teams that are 6-5 or 5-5 right now. One of them will be in the AFC or NFC title game. It sounds impossible, right? But it's not. Minnesota's 5-5. I could see them in there. Indianapolis is 6-5. They could definitely win two games and make it to the AFC Championship Game. New Orleans? Cleveland? Never say never. Stranger things have happened.
There you go. Six outrageous but true "hot takes". Personally, I think the two that actually have a legitimate chance of happening are the Ravens needing to win on January 9 to make the playoffs and the Cardinals failing to hold on to the #1 seed despite an accommodating schedule for the most part.
To me, Kansas City is still the team to beat in the AFC. You're going to have to eliminate them, somewhere, somehow, in order to get to the Super Bowl. I'll say Indianapolis and Kansas City play in the AFC title game.
Green Bay losing their starting left tackle will be a big blow to them, particularly if the Aaron Rodgers toe injury is semi-serious and he's hampered with it for the rest of the season. I like either the Rams or Dallas to come out of the NFC. They'll play one another in the NFC title game.
Those aren't "hot takes", by the way. That's just how I see things playing out.
one last shot for bonds and "the others"
Hall of Fame voting is once again underway for baseball and you already know what the big story is going to be. Bonds, Schilling, Clemens and Sosa. In? Or out? If they don't get in this year, they're done.
There are other names on the ballot that are equally, shall we say, "sensitive". Like David Ortiz for instance. Lots of rumors, lots of conjecture. Nothing in concrete, though. Still...is Ortiz a Hall of Famer if Barry Bonds isn't?
Alex Rodriguez? Manny Ramirez? Both had Hall of Fame numbers, but, well, you know.
Here, in rapid fire order, are the thirty names on this year's ballot.
Bobby Abreau, Barry Bonds, Mark Buehrle, Roger Clemens, Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Todd Helton, Ryan Howard, Tim Hudson, Torii Hunter, Andrew Jones, Jeff Kent, Tim Lincecum, Justin Moreneau, Joe Nathan, David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, Jake Peavy, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Pierzynski, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Mark Teixeira, Omar Vizquel and Billy Wagner.
There's your 30. Who would you nominate?
I'll start here. The first name I see that 100% would be on my ballot is Scott Rolen. Not only were his offensive numbers good, but he was one of the best defensive players of his generation. Nothing about his work at the plate ever made him a league MVP, but he did everything well with the bat. He was a lifetime .281 hitter (he needed 8 more hits per-season over his 17-year career to finish with a .300 average). He had 517 doubles. He hit 316 home runs. Some folks like to say a guy shouldn't make the Hall of Fame unless he was one of the best players at his position for a decade or more. Scott Rolen was exactly that.
I believe I can make a very solid case for nominating Mark Buehrle, also. Do you know he was a starter in the big leagues for 15 years and -- get this -- he made 30 or more starts EVERY YEAR OF HIS CAREER. Buehrle also pitched in the latter half of the steroid era and finished with 214 career wins (a lot by today's standards) and a 3.81 career ERA. He never won a Cy Young Award nor did he win 20 games in a season. His WHIP (1.281) was a hair higher than Jim Palmer's (1.180), but Buehrle didn't walk anyone. The most bases on balls he allowed in a season? 61. Buehrle was a workhorse. And he allowed less than 4 earned runs every nine innings and spent 15 of his 16 years in the American League. I can safely say I wouldn't be opposed to anyone voting for him. I think he deserves consideration.
If Scott Rolen belongs in the Hall of Fame, then so, too, does Jeff Kent. Their numbers are comparable, except Kent did everything with the bat just a wee bit better than Rolen. Kent never won a Gold Glove, but he was adequate enough in the field. If you think Rolen should be in Cooperstown, you have to also think Kent belongs there as well.
And if you believe Rolen and Kent belong, then you simply have to also include Todd Helton on your ballot. He was a career .316 hitter in 17 years with the Rockies. I do understand his numbers were somewhat impacted by playing in Colorado, but you can only play where they put you, I've heard. Helton's offensive numbers were really good, for quite a long time. 2,519 hits, 592 doubles, and only one season with more than 100 strikeouts.
I can make a good case for those four. If I had a ballot, Rolen, Buehrle, Kent and Helton would be on it.
I think I'd also vote for Omar Vizquel, because defense at the level he played it should count for something. He was a good hitter (.272 career average in 24 years) but had no power, obviously (80 home runs). His defensive work, though, was out of this world (11 Gold Glove awards). If you're willing to give a lot of credence to defense when a guy's offensive numbers aren't great, Vizquel should be in Cooperstown.
As for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa and the other steroid users (Pettitte, Ortiz, Ramirez, A-Rod), I've been saying this for a decade or more and I'm not going to change my tune one iota.
I'd vote for any of those guys as long as they were willing to have a notation on their plaque that referenced their history, if you will, with steroids.
Here, for example, is what I would offer to Barry Bonds. If he would allow this to be noted on his plaque, he would get my vote: Barry Bonds played 22 years in Major League Baseball and retired as the game's all-time leading home run hitter with 762. He won 7 MVP awards and was selected to play in the All-Star Game 14 times. Bonds also stole 514 bases, making him the only player in Major League history to record over 500 home runs and 500 stolen bases. Despite his on-field accolades, Bonds was a controversial and central figure in baseball's steroids scandal in the mid 2000's. In 2007, he was indicted on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice for allegedly lying to a grand jury during the federal government's investigation of BALCO, a manufacturer of an undectable steroid.
There it is, plain and simple. It doesn't say Bonds was a steroid user. (Even though we know he was). It doesn't say Bonds was found guilty of the charges (the perjury charge was eventually dropped, he was found guilty of OOJ but the verdict was later reversed). It merely says the truth; he was indicted and had ties to a company that manufactured steroids.
You can create the same kind of notation for the other steroid users if you want. Clemens, Sosa, A-Rod, etc. I would have no problem with any of those guys getting into Cooperstown as long as they were OK with the steroid notation. If they aren't, they can stay out.
Oh, and please don't be that goof that says, "How do you know Rolen, Kent, Buehrle and Vizquel didn't use steroids too?"
I don't know that they did or didn't. But I definitely know Bonds and Sosa and A-Rod and the rest of those guys did use them and therein lies the difference.
u.s. men's soccer stock report
The World Cup in Qatar is scheduled to begin one year from Sunday. The qualification process is heading towards the stretch run and the US is on pace to make the field. Although there have been some bumps along the road, they have largely proven themselves against the toughest competition in the region, beating Mexico three times in a row.
With that in mind, today we'll take a look at how the US stacks up against the rest of the international competition, then follow that up with an abbreviated weekend stock report.
Covid restrictions and increased regional competition with the introduction of the Nations League has limited the opportunities for the US men to test themselves against competition from outside CONCACAF. Though FIFA rankings are used to seed the pods for the World Cup draw, they are often flawed for measuring the relative quality of the teams on the field.
The US ranks 12th in the FIFA rankings after the latest round of games, in between Germany and Switzerland, and two spots ahead of Mexico. It's a bit optimistic to think the American men are on a level playing field with a German team that just breezed through their UEFA qualifying group. To get a more realistic picture of the US standing, let's take a look at several other measures.
The first measure to consider is ELO ranking. These are based on a more complex formula based on results from the past several years and are a bit more reliable than the simpler FIFA rankings. The US ranks 14th by this measure, top in CONCACAF and on a similar level to Croatia and Ecuador (Mexico is a few spots back in 19th). That is favorable company considering Croatia made it to the finals of the 2018 World Cup before falling to France. They just secured a spot for Qatar by winning their group in UEFA qualifying. Ecuador is currently third in South American qualifying with a comfortable margin to take one of the four automatic spots for Qatar from that region. Brazil, France and Argentina are currently the top three in ELO ranks.
Another measure to gage the quality and potential of an international team is the collective value of their players. In the world of international soccer, the value another team would pay to acquire a player is called their "transfer value" and can give an idea of how the player compares to their peers. The total transfer value of the best 23 US players is around $291 million. This ranks 15th among international teams, just behind Croatia and Nigeria and just ahead of Poland and Colombia. Again we see Croatia pop up as a comparison, meanwhile Colombia is currently 4th place in South American qualifying and Poland finished second in their UEFA group, earning a spot in the playoff for the last spots from that region.
As we see, all three of these measures give a similar picture of the Americans' status. The US is the top team in their region and compares favorably to the second tier of teams from Europe and South America. While they don't quite measure up to the elites from those regions that will be favored to make deep World Cup runs, they reside in a group that is competitive and capable of making a run with a little luck.
There is one additional measure that inspires optimism for this US team both next Fall and in the US hosted 2026 World Cup. The most recent US roster had an average age of just under 24 years old. This is an incredibly young team compared to the rest of the world. Not only is it the youngest squad of any in all of World Cup qualifying, but the next youngest is almost a full year older than the US. England has the youngest team in Europe with an average age of 25.3 and European champions Italy average 26.7 years old.
Closer to home, Mexico's average age is 28.8 and Canada's is 27. This is important to consider, since soccer players generally reach their peak between 24-27 years old. This means many of the top US players will just be entering their prime as the Qatar World Cup begins and nearly the whole team will still be in that window when the World Cup returns to the US in 2026.
This was a relatively quiet week for Americans in Europe, with several resting after a long trip back from the qualifying matches.
Stock Up
The highlight of the weekend came from Christian Pulisic, who continues to work his way back to full fitness. The Pennsylvania native had an impressive 30 minute sub appearance for Chelsea in a big 3-0 win over Leicester City. Pulisic made an instant impact, scoring a goal less than ten minutes after entering the game to extend Chelsea's lead to 2-0. The win keeps Chelsea atop the Premier League, three points ahead of second place Manchester City.
In Italy's Serie A, three Americans had solid performances in important wins for their teams. Weston McKennie continued his impressive run of games with a good effort in a 2-0 win for Juventus over Lazio.
Both Gianluca Busio and Tanner Tessman were solid in Venezia's 1-0 win over Bologna. Busio started and delivered the assist on the crucial goal, while Tessman subbed on in the second half to help protect the lead.
Stock Down
It was a rough weekend for American captain Tyler Adams and coach Jesse Marsch. Leipzig took a disappointing 2-0 loss to Chris Richards and Hoffenheim. It was an especially bad day for Adams, who lost his mark on a corner kick that resulted in the first goal and then got stripped of the ball to set up the second Hoffenheim goal.
Adams remains the most important player for the US team and this down game is unlikely to diminish the confidence his club or country have in him. The loss drops Leipzig down to 7th in the Bundesliga and they will need a strong second half of the season to get back into the Champions League places.
Tuesday begins a packed week for American players. The Champions League returns with games Tuesday and Wednesday featuring many of the European based players. Back home, the MLS playoffs started this past weekend and continue this week for many of the key domestic players.
| Monday November 22, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2647 |
if you complain about that win...
If you, for any reason at all, complain about yesterday's 16-13 Ravens win in Chicago, you should check out now. We'll send you a refund for the rest of the year and you can just stop watching the games.
There is nothing to complain about. Nothing. The Ravens won a game, on the road, with their back-up quarterback at the helm. They were also missing the team's top receiving threat, two starting defensive backs and the "team leader" on defense, Pernell McPhee.
Sure, it wasn't pretty. The offense scored one touchdown in 60 minutes and it took them 59 minutes and some change just to do that. But once it was announced that Lamar Jackson was going to be inactive, the whole game became a coin flip, basically. And yet, somehow, John Harbaugh's team battled back from a late deficit to win and improve to 7-3.
We're a "complain free zone" today.
If you want to bellyache tomorrow about Wink Martindale's defensive calls on the Bears' penultimate series, come on back 24 hours from now and have at it. If you're hell bent on picking on Brandon Stephens or Chris Westry because they weren't all-pro caliber on Sunday, come back tomorrow and lash out if you must. Today, though, no complaining. No whining. No commentary about "barely beating the Bears" or anything like that.
Be smart and take yesterday for what it was. A win. That's it. It was a gutsy, gritty performance by a Ravens team that could have easily just packed it once Lamar stayed in street clothes. And, no, it wasn't "lucky", either. There wasn't a mysterious penalty that aided the Ravens late in the game. Chicago didn't kick the ball around. After the Bears went ahead 13-9, Tyler Huntley marched the team down the field and into the end zone. Sure, there was a pass interference call along the way, but it was completely justified. Huntley did exactly what he needed to do on that last series. End of story.
There's no telling at all what Ravens team we'll be seeing over the last 7 weeks. Sure, the Ravens might have been fortunate that yesterday's Lamar-less game fell against the Bears and not the Browns or Bengals. That's the way it goes, sometimes. But nothing about the last seven games will be easy. The Ravens face Cleveland twice, the Steelers twice, the Bengals once and Green Bay and the L.A. Rams at home. 7-3 could be 9-7 before you know it and the Ravens might have to beat Pittsburgh on the last Sunday of the season just to make the playoffs. I have no way of knowing what's about to happen. Neither does anyone else.
But here's what I do know: Whatever the final record is, the Ravens can look back on what happened yesterday and point to that game as a "difference maker" in the season. If they finish 12-5, they'll finish 12-5 because they stole a win in Chicago. If they finish 11-6, the same thing applies. For all we know, the Ravens might wind up as the #1 seed in the AFC. And if they do, they have yesterday to thank for it.
The win over Detroit earlier this season? Lucky.
The win over Indianapolis? Lucky.
Minnesota? Lucky.
Yesterday? Not at all lucky. Yesterday was all heart. Those kind of wins tell you something about the character of the team. The Ravens might get lit up next Sunday night at home vs. Cleveland. Who knows? But yesterday, they showed everyone why you can never, ever count them out, no matter who is playing quarterback, wide receiver or defensive back.
around the (crazy) nfl in 3 minutes
Colts 41 - Bills 15 -- I said this after they hand-delivered that win to the Ravens in Baltimore back in October and I'm still here, five weeks later, saying it now. The Colts might be a very dangerous team come January. I think yesterday's win in Buffalo told us more about the Bills than Indianapolis, perhaps, but the Colts have a dangerous running back, a competent quarterback and passing game, and a decent enough defense. And their coach is also very good. Watch out for Indy. That's all I'm saying.
Washington 27 - Panthers 21 -- Last week Cam Newton was "back". This week, he lost at home to Washington. Oh well. Neither of those teams are any good, but D.C. is somehow now 4-6 and can still make a run at a post-season spot with continued good play. Carolina falls to 5-6 and they're still in the running for the post-season as well. The NFC is crazy. So is the AFC. Come to think of it, the whole league is nuts.
Chiefs 19 - Cowboys 9 -- Don't look now, but Kansas City's defense is starting to improve. Whether it was the mid-season addition of Melvin Ingram or just the fact that Kansas City's defense couldn't get much worse, the reality is they are playing better on that side of the ball. The offense is still stumbling a bit, but the arsenal of weapons available to Patrick Mahomes makes Kansas City a legitimate threat to win every game they play. I'm getting a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about the Chiefs. Reports of their demise might have been greatly exaggerated.
Browns 13 - Lions 10 -- This one set the quarterback position back 50 years, as both Baker Mayfield and some guy named Tim Boyle were awful. Boyle threw for 77 yards and had a QB rating of 6.7 while Mayfield had a rating of 8.6 after throwing for just 176 yards. As far as the Browns go, a win's a win, as they improve to 6-5 with a big game in Baltimore coming up next Sunday night.
49'ers 30 - Jaguars 10 -- How on earth are the 49'ers 5-5? It helps when you play the likes of Jacksonville, of course, who were their usual pathetic selves yesterday. San Francisco is still alive in the NFC playoff race as all the teams try and figure out how they can get to 10 wins.
Vikings 34 - Packers 31 -- Speaking of the Vikings, they're also 5-5 and starting to percolate in the NFC North. Green Bay fell to 8-3 with the loss, but I can't imagine the Packers are all that worried. Minnesota could be 9-5 in four weeks; their next four games are at San Francisco, at Detroit, home vs. Pittsburgh and at Chicago. All four of those games can be won. But they're also just as likely to somehow split those four and be 7-7. Minnesota's one of the more puzzling teams in the league, in my opinion.
Dolphins 24 - Jets 17 -- So much for Joe Flacco being the answer to the Jets' woes. Thanks a lot, Joe. There's not much to see here. Miami stinks, but the Jets stink worse. Enough said.
Eagles 40 - New Orleans 29 -- Stop me if you heard this one before. Both the Eagles (5-6) and Saints (5-5) are alive and well in the NFC playoff race. Funny thing about yesterday's game in Philly -- it was the Eagles first home win in five tries this season. I don't think either of these teams are any good, but Philadelphia seems to be improving a little week by week.
Texans 22 - Titans 13 -- This game. Holy cow. How on earth did Houston go into Nashville and win? Un-freaking-real. So, now we know the Titans are vulnerable and, we get reminded once again, that anything can happen on any given Sunday.
Bengals 32 - Raiders 13 -- You have to feel bad for the Raiders. They were in pretty good position to make some noise in the AFC until the NFL fired their coach and their star wide receiver was involved in a fatal car accident. And with that, their season is done. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is now 6-4, 4-2 on the road, and still alive and well in the AFC North. The Bengals now have a 3-game homestand on the horizon (vs. Pittsburgh, LA Chargers and San Francisco) plus a road game at Denver that they should be able to win. Cincinnati still has a home game with Baltimore and Pittsburgh as well. With any amount of good play and good fortune, the Bengals could threaten 11 wins.
Cardinals 23 - Seahawks 13 -- Well, that does it for Seattle. Their season's over. Arizona, meanwhile continues to hold the top spot in the NFC at 9-2 and they won 2 of 3 with Kyler Murray out of the lineup. There's no telling if the Cardinals can jockey their way through the post-season. They're the Cardinals, after all. But winning these games recently without their star quarterback is a pretty good sign that they're the real deal.
Chargers 41 - Steelers 37 -- This. Was. Wild. Pittsburgh trailed at the start of the 4th quarter, 27-10. The game was over. The planes were started in Los Angeles and all the Steelers were trying to do was play out the string and not get hurt. The next thing you know, it's 34-20. Then 34-27. Then it was tied. And then Pittsburgh went ahead 37-34. It was insane. But the Chargers came back with a late touchdown against that "outstanding" Steelers defense and pulled out the win, 41-37. By far this was the craziest quarter of an already insanely crazy 2021 NFL season. Just nuts.
the tiger video
If there was ever a thought about who moves the needle the most in the world of professional golf, Tiger Woods ended that discussion yesterday with the release of one 3-second video.
400,000 views within 15 minutes.
5 million views within 6 hours.
And those numbers were just from Twitter.
So much for that $8 million bonus check to the TOUR player with the most social media impact, huh? Just make the check payable to the Tiger Woods Foundation, please.
The golf world also lit up on Sunday when the video surfaced just before 12 noon. "Making progress" was the caption Woods chose for the video, where he's shown hitting a short iron of some kind. The divot pattern and half-empty bucket of practice balls would indicate Tiger had been at it for a little while, which supports a rumor that surfaced last week that some Jupiter, Florida residents had seen Woods playing a couple of holes in his backyard.
"The man is back!" Billy Horschel wrote.
"Now this makes my day!" commented Rickie Fowler.
Others like Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy also authored social media messages expressing their delight in seeing the Tiger video.
They're baby steps, of course, and hitting 30 wedges or nine-irons at a range does not necessarily mean a player (even Tiger) is ready to take on an 18-hole golf course. But it's also hard to ignore the video and its apparent intention; that Tiger is, in fact, going to attempt to play competitively again at some point.
I've been on the record over the last few months in saying I didn't think Tiger would ever play a TOUR event again. I guess I have to reconsider that position now. I'd love to see him tee it up again, as would everyone else in the world of golf. I never thought we'd see that day, but it's looking more and more like we'll get that opportunity at some point in 2022.
| | #DMD GAME DAY | |
| | Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears 1:00 PM EST Soldier Field Spread: Ravens (-5.0) |  |
it's all about lamar
Let's just say this: If the Ravens are as successful today as our new columnist "Bet It All Paul" was on Saturday, John Harbaugh's team will be just fine today.
It will all come down to the availability of quarterback Lamar Jackson, who was placed on the team's injury list yesterday with an "illness" that the team says is not Covid-19 related.
To protect themselves in the event Jackson can't play today, the Ravens elevated 3rd string QB Trace McSorley to the team's 53-man roster. Jackson, it would appear, will be a game-time decision this afternoon. If he can't go, Tyler Huntley will get the start against the Bears.
And the Ravens chances of beating the Bears will hinge directly on Jackson's health and availability. If he plays, they win. If he plays but can't finish the game for some reason, then it all depends on where things stand when he's forced to depart. If Lamar can't suit up and the game is handed to Huntley and McSorley, it becomes a "pick 'em" kind of contest. Anyone can win at that point.
None of that can be a surprise to any Ravens fan who has paid attention to the team over the last 3-plus years. The Ravens go as Lamar goes. They could still beat the Bears with Huntley at quarterback, mind you. It's not like he's a complete bum. But Jackson is the key to the offense, full stop. No one with a clue would argue that point, I assume.
Things got a little more dicey on Saturday when the Ravens announced Hollywood Brown (thigh) will not play today in Chicago. With Miles Boykin also out, that puts the burden on Sammy Watkins and first-round draft choice Rashod Bateman to have big days. And Watkins, as we've seen this season, is more apt to pull a muscle than he is to catch a touchdown pass. Bateman has been outstanding since he returned from an early-season injury four weeks ago. They'll need a big game from him today, for sure.
The Bears are shorthanded, too. They're without their top receiver, Allen Robinson, which should make their benign offense even less concerning. Their rookie quarterback, Justin Fields, has shown glimpses of improvement over the last few weeks, but he'll be hard pressed to do anything special today with Robinson unavailable for duty. Chicago's defense isn't terrible, but their offense can't do enough to force the issue.
Where things could go off the rails today would be if Jackson doesn't play and the Ravens running game falls flat. Even if Jackson plays, the running game still has to do something of note, but if Lamar can't go, Huntley steps in, and the running attack can't get going, the game will be very much in the balance. The team has failed to gain 100 yards on the ground in two of its last four games. They'll need a stepped-up running game today in Chicago.
There's not much else to say about this one. It all depends on Lamar's ability to play. If he's in -- and the bet here is he gets the start despite whatever bug he's battling -- the Ravens should win by double digits. If he doesn't play, it's a toss-up.
We'll abstain from our normal "How Drew Sees Today's Game" column because there's just no use in doing it without knowing if Jackson is going to start. As we just wrote above, if Lamar plays, the Ravens cruise to a win in Chicago. If he doesn't, who knows what happens?
does maryland have a coaching problem?
No, this is not an attack on Mark Turgeon.
His teams actually win.
This is about another Maryland coach.
How does Mike Locksley continue to patrol the sidelines in College Park? Yesterday's 59-18 shellacking at home to the University of Michigan was yet another in a long line of embarrassing defeats before the home faithful. It's one thing to play people like Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan and lose 34-24 or 27-20, hanging in there until early in the fourth quarter before the cream rises to the top. It's another thing, entirely, to get roasted 59-18 or 51-14 or 59-0.
It's also not good for the program to get blown out at home, either. If you go to Michigan and lose, 59-18, half the town doesn't even know it. But when you put 35,000 or 40,000 people in the stadium and get your hat handed to you two or three times a year, it's hard to sell tickets the following summer. These home scorchings the Terps have endured in the Locksley era aren't good for business.
Locksley's known throughout the area as a "good recruiter", but something's going wrong once the kids sign on the dotted line. He's either not picking the right kids or they're simply not good enough once the bright lights of the Big Ten come on every year. Or, of course, perhaps they're not being "coached up" while they're at College Park. Something, though, isn't right.
I'm going to stop short of saying "Maryland football should be better than this" because I think we all knew from jump street that life would be difficult in the Big Ten. But I will say, at the very least, that it doesn't really appear like the program is improving all that much. Locksley and his staff might disagree with that assessment, but a 51-14 loss to Iowa, 66-17 loss to Ohio State and 59-18 defeat at the hands of Michigan suggest otherwise. When Maryland plays Howard and Kent State, they look pretty good. When the play real teams, they look pretty lousy. They are what the scores say they are, in other words.
The next guy -- whenever he might arrive -- will likely have the same issues that confront Locksley and his staff. That said, how much longer can Maryland go with Locksley when they're getting blistered by 30 or 40 points three or four times every season?
The two other D.C. area teams aren't having any real issues to start their seasons, as the Capitals are off to a scorching 11-2-5 start that has seen the club lose just twice in regulation thus far in '21-22. Last night's 4-0 win at San Jose marked the second straight shutout for goaltender Ilya Samsonov on the team's 4-game west coast trip, which ends tonight with the club's first-ever game in Seattle against the expansion Kraken.
Here's a strange note from the early part of the campaign. You'd think, with a record of 11-2-5, that the Caps would be distancing themselves from the rest of the Metropolitan Division. Instead, Carolina -- having played two less games than Washington, too -- is leading the division at 14-2-0. Quite a start for the Hurricanes down there in Raleigh.
Alex Ovechkin snapped a mini-slump with two goals last in San Jose to reach the 14-goal plateau through the team's first 18 games. Last night also marked the return to action for both T.J. Oshie and Nic Dowd, with both players registering an assist in the 4-0 win over the Sharks.
And the Wizards got back on track last night at home, defeating Miami 103-100. Washington is now 11-5 to start the season and situated in good position in the Eastern Conference of the NBA.
the beach house project: keep hammering vegas!
After yet another winning day last Sunday, we're now 27-23 picking against the spread through 10 weeks of the NFL season.
If you're a Flyers fan, what 27-23 means is we're ahead. We're making money. We're beating the smart guys in Las Vegas. And, yes, it feels great.
Editor's note: Also, if you're a Flyers fan, I have a quick question for you: How did that home game go against the Bruins last night? hehe
Let's get to the business of picking five games, shall we? The guys are coming in to start finishing the basement on the Dewey beach house this week and I need some extra cash to make sure it gets done by Friday.
Lions at Browns (-12.5) - It seems like every time we pick the Browns, they lay an egg. And when we don't pick them, they crush someone and cover the spread. Detroit is a mess. Jared Goff is out today and their offense, which was already not very good, can't be expected to do much in Cleveland. Yes, we're doing it. We'll take Cleveland and give the 12.5 points in a 27-7 Browns win over the hapless Lions.
Texans at Titans (-10.0) - Am I missing something? The Titans are only 10-point home favorites over the Texans? Shouldn't this spread be something like -18.5? I realize Tennessee doesn't have Derrick Henry, but the Texans have, ummmm, no one. I just don't get this spread at all. Tennessee's going to win by 30, right? Am I reading this wrong? Well, we're not going to overthink this one in the least. We'll take the Titans and give the 10 points in a 33-13 victory.
Dolphins at Jets (+3.5) - Joe Flacco returns and all is right with the world. That's what I think, anyway. Miami isn't going on the road and beating the Jets in New York. It's just not happening. Flacco and the Jets not only cover, but win outright, as they hang on to beat Miami 22-20.
Cardinals at Seahawks (+1.0) - This is pretty much Seattle's season today. I mean, at 3-6 they're almost done as it is, but if they can somehow finish 10-7 they might have a shot at wild card spot in the NFC. Arizona, meanwhile, is 5-0 on the road this year, which means they're poised to get nicked for an away loss. And what better place than Seattle for that to happen? We're going with the Seahawks here, 26-23, as Russell Wilson atones for last week's debacle in Green Bay. Home cookin'. It's a good thing.
Steelers at Chargers (-5.5) - I hate to say it, but this is precisely the kind of game the Steelers wind up winning almost by accident. Big Ben will have a so-so day, the refs will make a call or two in the 4th quarter that impact the game, Pittsburgh will get a late fumble recovery and they'll wind up stealing a win they don't deserve. We're going with the Steelers and taking the 5.5 points as Pittsburgh stays alive in the AFC North race with a 24-23 win over the Chargers.
BEST BET OF THE DAY - It has to be the Titans. If they don't win by 10 points, the league's fixed. It just has to be the Titans giving the terrible Texans 10 points, in Nashville, no less.
OVERALL RECORD TO DATE: 27-23
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 3-2
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 5-5
| Saturday November 20, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2645 |
"bet it all paul" has arrived!
I love when #DMD readers take me up on an offer. A few weeks back I mentioned we were interested in adding an Orioles-only writer to our staff and Joe reached out to me and said he would be interested. Earlier this week, Paul sent me an e-mail and wondered if he might contribute an occasional gambling column.
The Orioles don't start until next February -- or when they sign free agent Carlos Correa, whichever comes first -- so Joe's work won't start here for a few months most likely, but Paul, or, "Bet it all Paul" as he wants to be called, begins his quest to gain your respect today here at #DMD.
Of course, Paul already knows he can't top what's been going on here with regard to Sunday football picks against the spread. The author is now 27-23 on the year and laughing all the way to the bank. But BIAP knows a little something about college hoops, he says, and the NBA and NHL. He'll occasionally dabble in college football and might throw in a pro game now and then, but his expertise is in putting together betting slips that involve lesser known games and teams. We'll see how he does.
"I already know how it's going to go," he said to me on Friday over a Royal Farms coffee. "If I do well, no one will say a word. If I go 3-7, I'm going to get hammered by the readers."
At least we can confirm Paul is a daily reader of Drew's Morning Dish, right?
Welcome to the family, Paul. And, seriously: Don't bet it all.
Maryland got back on the winning track last night with a 69-67 win over Hofstra in a game that went down to the last shot.
I have no idea what to make of it, other than to say a loss to Hofstra would have really had people in these parts howling. As it is, most folks on the internet -- particularly the 80% who don't like Mark Turgeon -- treated the win like a loss.
I have found a couple of things interesting this week as Maryland navigates their way through an early non-conference slate of games.
Turgeon has now twice referred to this part of the schedule as the "pre-season". I don't know that I've ever heard a coach in Division I basketball say that, although I'm certainly willing to admit I haven't heard all 300-plus Division I basketball coaches comment about their non-conference games.
What about these games is "pre-season" to Turgeon? If it's the way you're playing your players, rotation wise, that's understandable. If it's the way you're scheming -- meaning, you're playing zone at a time in the game when, perhaps, you wouldn't do it during the "regular" season, I guess I get that too, although losing to people like George Mason or Hofstra seems far more impactful to me than whether you use these games for "testing and learning".
I realize the Big Ten portion of Maryland's schedule is what generally gets the team playing into March. You can win all of the games you want against Vermont and Morgan State and Robert Morris (note: MD didn't play Morgan State and Robert Morris this year) but it's what you do in the Big Ten that matters. Everyone knows that. But calling the November games "pre-season" just seems weird to me. Anyway...
The other thing I've noticed this week is Turgeon has also made a cryptic comment or two about crowd size at the Xfinity Center. Last night's attendance was 12,810, while just under 12,000 saw Wednesday's shocking loss to George Mason. The arena holds 17,950.
"I'd like to see more people here," Turgeon said after Wednesday's game. "It's a little discouraging to see all of those empty seats."
I have no idea what to make of that. For starters, I don't know how many season tickets Maryland basketball has. I sorta-kinda assumed all 17,950 seats were sold for the year. In that case, 5,000 "no shows" does seem somewhat odd. But maybe they, too, are waiting for the real games to start.
I'm guessing Maryland holds back 4,000 seats for students for each game. Or thereabouts. They probably have 12,000 or 13,000 "sold" already and the other seats go to UM students who sit behind the one basket each game. For whatever reason, they're not showing up for these "pre-season games", maybe?
I have no idea and I'm not even sure how to investigate it. And I'm not even sure it's worth looking into. I'm sure Turgeon would like a full house. Seeing empty seats for a high-profile Division I program like Maryland does seem odd, but a quick check shows that #11 Memphis played a non-conference home game last night and only drew 13,375 in their 18,400 seat arena. Kentucky drew 19,045 (in a 20,500 building) for their game with Ohio, but they're Kentucky. People really care about that program out there. I get that one.
Anyway, I don't see attendance as an issue at Maryland. We already know there will be some games over the winter/holiday break when the kids aren't on campus that won't sell out. That's a given. Perhaps Turgeon believes that every game should be a sell-out when students are on campus and I can't really argue much with that thought. You're a Maryland student. It's a Wednesday night in November. There's a basketball game. You go free of charge. Carve out three hours and go see the game.
I'll wait until tomorrow to give you my official Ravens-Bears prediction but I'll say this right here, now.
There's no way the Ravens are going there tomorrow and losing.
It's just not happening.
Editor's note: I went back and looked at my Ravens-Miami thoughts leading up to that game and I said the same thing. "The Ravens aren't losing to those chumps", basically. But this game in Chicago is different.
I know the Bears played the Steelers tough a couple of weeks back and all that stuff. I saw the game. But that was more about Pittsburgh not being all that good than it was anything else.
Without wide receiver Allen Robinson, Chicago's already-pedestrian offense will be even more powerless tomorrow. How on earth are they going to beat the Ravens? By throwing 12 balls to tight end Jimmy Graham? Running for 150 yards on the Baltimore defense? Creating two or three defensive turnovers that impact field position? I mean, I guess those are three ways Chicago could win, but they're not doing those three things.
Tomorrow should be a laugher for the Ravens. It might only be a 23-10 laugher, but Baltimore should beat the Bears with the same kind of relative ease they beat the Broncos in Denver earlier this season. It shouldn't be close.
Yes, yes, I know I said that about the Dolphins game. Stop reminding me already, you're getting on my nerves.
Check back tomorrow for the official pick, but if you're the kind of enthusiast who likes to make his wagers on Saturday, go big on the Ravens and give the points. You don't need "Bet it all Paul" for this one, friends. You heard it from the guy on his way to building a nice beachhouse in Dewey.
bet it all paul's weekend picks
Hello Drew's Morning Dish readers. I'm Paul. As you will see in the coming weeks, I like to fish out the games no one else looks at and play those to the max. To me that's where the good money can be found. The NFL lines are too thoroughly researched although I do like one game on Sunday that I will list here for everyone.
To make real money in sports gambling you have to go off the grid and find a couple of games that a lot of people aren't betting. Do your research and go from there.
I'll give you five plays for Saturday and one for Sunday today. As I always like to tell my friends, please gamble within your means.
Here are the games and spreads I like.
College BB: Rider at Buffalo - Buffalo is playing their home opener. I like the home team to come out buzzing in this one. The first-half total is 71.0. I see Buffalo leading at the half in this one 42-35. We're throwing 100 coffee beans on Buffalo-Rider to go over the first half total of 71.0. We're also throwing 100 coffee beans on Rider (+16) in this one as we see Buffalo winning 77-69.
College BB: Troy at UT Martin - We're going big on this one, as Troy is giving up 11.5 points at home against the Skyhawks. This game also features a total line of 140, which is very inviting. We're taking Troy and giving the 11.5 points for 200 coffee beans. We like the final here to be 84-65 in favor of the Trojans, so let's put another 200 coffee beans on the 140-over in this game.
NHL: Minnesota at Florida - We like this game a lot. We're going to play the Florida Panthers to win the game outright at (-145), so we'll throw 145 coffee beans on them and another 100 beans on the total goals going over 5.5 tonight.
College FB: Texas at West Virginia - Texas is a 2.5 point road underdog here and in desperate need of a win to stay bowl eligible but West Virginia is in the exact same spot. We love this game on a variety of levels. We're going with West Virginia to cover the 2.5 points and we love the over (56.5) hitting in this one. West Virginia wins 44-41 in a wild one in Morgantown and we're putting 100 coffee beans on WVU (-2.5) and the over 56.5.
NBA: Miami at Washington - These two teams just played a couple of nights ago in Miami with the Heat winning. Over the last three years in the NBA, teams playing one another in back-to-back games resulted in a split 44% of the time, but the home team who lost the first game of the back-to-back wins 64% of the games. We're going with Washington tonight, as they get 1.5 points from the Heat in Washington DC. We'll throw 100 beans on the Wizards. We don't love the total of 210.0 so we're going to lay off of it, but we have a hunch this one might go to OT and end up in the 220's or 230's.
NFL: Indianapolis at Buffalo - This is our big play of the day tomorrow in the NFL, as Buffalo is giving up 7 points at home to the Colts. The Colts are 6-4 against the spread this year and the Bills are 5-3-1 ATS so there's not much to look at there. The Indianapolis offense has been pretty good over the last seven games, scoring 27, 25, 31, 30, 31, 45 and 23 points. Buffalo's offense can also put up some points. We love the total of 49.5 in this one and we're going hard on the over. Don't tell the wife, but we're throwing 500 coffee beans on the over 49.5 in this game as we see a final score of something like 38-27 in favor of the Bills. We wouldn't rule out an Indy upset here though. The only play we like enough to give out is the over 49.5.
| Friday November 19, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2644 |
friday nuggets
I guess we can look at the New England Patriots in one of two ways.
1. Yeah, sure, they're 7-4, but who have they defeated, really?
2. Damn, here come the freakin' Patriots...again.
Last night's 25-0 win over Atlanta was impressive, but you start off with the obvious caveat -- it was the Falcons. True, it was in Atlanta and all, but still. What's pretty remarkable about New England thus far, though, is that they're 5-0 away from Foxborough. I don't care who you are, 5-0 on the road in the NFL is a legit stat.
Now, their seven wins overall? Nothing special. They beat the Jets (twice), Texans, Chargers, Panthers, Browns and Falcons. Of those, the only "quality" teams would be the Chargers and Browns and, if we're being honest, there's even a question about those two.
New England's losses have been to the Dolphins (I'd make a snarky remark but...), Saints, Buccaneers, and Cowboys. And all four of those losses were at home, remember.
But I'll say this: I'm buying stock in the Patriots. I don't think they're going to the Super Bowl, but I also have to admit I have no idea at all who's going the Super Bowl. The Patriots appear to be getting better as October moves into November and November turns into December. That's the scary thought, I guess. They are apparently on the uptick.
We'll learn if the Patriots are "for real" in the next four weeks, for sure. Next Sunday they're home against the Titans. Then they're at Buffalo, at Indianapolis and home vs. the Bills. Let's see them go 3-1 in those four games, which would put them at 10-5 with two games remaining (Jaguars and Dolphins). If they go 1-3 in those four, suddenly they're 8-7 with two games remaining and might not make the playoffs.
This much is certain: It looks like Bill Belichick has found himself another quarterback. That rat fink...
The radio airwaves were lit up yesterday in these parts with people blasting Mark Turgeon for Maryland's 71-66 loss to George Mason on Wednesday night.
I get it. Like I've been saying, he's the easy, obvious target when it comes to Maryland basketball. I wouldn't go as far as saying it's a "lazy take" because I've never really been sold on Turgeon since day one, but I look at the roster and watch the games and the boxscore seems to always tell me the same thing; Maryland needs better basketball players, plain and simple.
On Wednesday night, they had three players play 20-plus minutes (Hart, Martinez and Russell) and score a total of --- 9 points. OK, maybe they had off nights. I'll buy that. But maybe they're just "good" players and nothing more. I mean, Fatts Russell came to Maryland from Rhode Island which, as you know, isn't exactly "Duke North". He's going to have some good nights at Maryland, I think, but he's just an example of a guy who is "good" that people think should be "great".
I have no idea if Hakim Hart would be a starter (as he was on Wednesday) and play 21 minutes on any legitimate Big Ten team. I'll defer to someone like our own Dale Williams for that debate. But I'll say "no" and let the conversation begin there. That he's starting (or even getting 12-15 minutes a game off the bench) is a puzzler to me. And it says something about the kind of player Maryland has or gets. He's a good basketball player. But is a Big Ten-caliber player? I don't think he is.
Anyway, this all circles back to the topic I touched on yesterday. Maryland basketball is simply not the attractive, "kids-gotta-go-there-and-play" school that a lot of folks around here think it is. I hear the callers and read the Twitter activity and I constantly hear and see references to 2001 and Maryland's quality back then. I'd like to remind those folks that, at one point in time, Indiana and St. John's basketball were also national powers in hoops. So, too, was Georgetown. 40 years ago.
Nebraska used to be really, really good in football. 40 years ago.
Maryland basketball fans have to stop looking at what happened with the Terps in 2000-2001 and think it's the norm. It isn't. The last 20 years have told us those two campaigns were probably more outliers than anything else. But I also understand once you win like that, it becomes part of the expectation moving forward. Rory McIlroy won four majors in four years (2011-2014) and everyone thought he would make a run at Jack (18) and Tiger (15) and their major championship marks. Here we are in 2021 and Rory still has.....4 major wins.
If you're of the mindset that Mark Turgeon is the problem from both a recruiting and in-game coaching standpoint, that's more than fair. As folks have suggested here, Turgeon is the guy going out to get the players. He buys the ingredients and cooks the meal, in other words. I don't see a lot of good players on the Maryland roster.
I don't think I've ever seen a team under Turgeon that makes me go "Wow, they're loaded!" Perhaps the '19-20 squad that got wiped out by Covid-19 would have been the one team most capable of making some March Madness noise, but other than that, Maryland's roster has been pretty average in my eyes. Most people blame that, specifically, on the coach as well.
My assessment of the whole recruiting picture? I think he's getting the players Maryland basketball is capable of getting, for the most part. That's always been my stance. If Fatts Russell were really an elite-transfer-candidate, he'd be at Duke or Kansas or Kentucky.
All that said, I still Maryland will be decent this year. They'll make the tournament, lose a game they probably shouldn't, and we'll be right back here in March bellyaching about the coach.
And that, in my world at least, is good for business. Back in the old days on sports radio, the Ravens breezing through a season like 2006 was not good for business. A 14-2 record and nothing to complain about? The airwaves were dead. When they go 9-7 or 10-6, though, every Monday is potentially a whirlwind of activity. Maryland losing to people like George Mason and then stubbing their toe three or four times in the Big Ten to teams like Penn State, Rutgers, Minnesota, et al? Bring it on...
It was pretty cool to see Shohei Ohtani win the A.L. MVP award last night. OK, sure, it wasn't exactly a secret or a surprise that the won, but it's still awesome nonetheless to see a guy do what he did in '21 -- for a pretty bad team, too -- and get the highest honor baseball hands out at the same time.
It's really a shame Ohtani's pitching faded in August and September or he would have been a legit candidate for the A.L. Cy Young award as well. He wound up only making 23 starts because of mid-summer arm issues, but his work in those appearances was still high quality. Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA, striking out 156 batters and walking just 44. Robbie Ray's numbers were better...but not that much better. Had Ohtani made 30 starts and gone, say, 14-5 with a 2.85 ERA, that might have been enough to get him in the mix for the Cy Young.
As it is, though, the unanimous MVP award is a great cake-topper for the Japanese star. If you're a baseball fan, you have to marvel at what he's done, simply because no one else except Babe Ruth has done the same thing. Ever. It's Babe Ruth and Shohei Ohtani. That's elite company, huh?
Here's something I didn't grasp until I looked at his full stats summary from the '21 season last night. Ohtani also had 26 stolen bases last season. He hit 46 home runs. Drive in 100 runs. Had 26 doubles and 8 (yes, 8) triples. His batting average was OK (.257) but the rest of his numbers were outstanding. And he stole 26 bases, too. Holy cow.
Bryce Harper won the National League MVP and it wasn't a surprise at all because he's obviously a great player who appears destined for the Hall of Fame someday.
But what Ohtani did in '21 is out-of-this-world good. I didn't see Babe Ruth play, but I've seen "the next Babe Ruth" play and that's good enough for me.
Speaking of the NFL and the topsy-turvy nature of the league, I can't help but look at the AFC standings right now and marvel at how crazy they are. Every team has a flaw of some kind, even if they only have two or three losses.
Buffalo? They look really good on both sides of the ball. Their defense can bear its fangs on any given Sunday and shut you down. Their QB is solid. They have a great wide receiver. They run the ball just well enough to keep opposing defenses honest. Oh, and they also lost to Jacksonville. I see the Bills as the favorite right now, but only by a hair.
Kansas City? Their defense is beyond lousy. They can win any game with Mahomes and his cast of weapons, sure, but is that defense going to hold up for three or four games in January and February? I don't see it.
Tennessee? Might be the best team in the AFC, but are they really going to win meaningful playoff games with Adrian Peterson at running back? Maybe Derrick Henry makes it back, but how effective can he be in January given his mid-season foot surgery?
Any team in the AFC North? I mean, there's no telling who is going to win the division. I personally still think the Ravens will figure out a way to do it, but I wouldn't wager a nickel on that right now unless the odds were really favorable for me. It looked like Cincinnati was the cream of a crop a month ago and now they look more like the "Bungles" again than the Bengals. The Browns? I don't think that roster can get it done. The Steelers? Heck, they're the worst team of the four in the division and they might have the best shot other than the Ravens, which doesn't say much about the Browns and Bengals.
New England? We touched on the Patriots above. Their wins have come against B-Conference teams. When they've played A-Conference sides, they've lost -- for the most part. But when Bill Belichick's involved, you never know. And wouldn't the football gods just love, love, love a Brady vs. Belichick Super Bowl? Oh my...
Chargers? Raiders? Not this year. A lot of folks were bullish on Los Angeles until they came into Baltimore and got plastered back in mid-October. They haven't been the same since.
The good news for everyone? The conference is, as you can tell, extremely wide open. The Ravens have the same opportunity as everyone else. For Baltimore, it will all come down to their five division games that remain. They're 6-3 now. Let's give them a win this Sunday in Chicago. That's 7-3.
If they go 4-1 in the five division games they still have on their schedule, that's 11-4 without the Rams and Packers games, and they're both at home, remember. Even with losses to Green Bay and L.A. (and I doubt that happens), 11-6 should be good enough to win the division. 12-5 might get them the 2nd seed. 13-4 could give the Ravens home ice throughout the AFC playoffs.
It's anyone's AFC to win at this point, other than the obvious bottom-feeders. The Ravens have a lot to play for over the last half of their schedule.
Inky Johnson.
What a special man he is.
We try and spread out our "Faith in Sports" videos as much as possible, but Inky Johnson is such a remarkable speaker and presenter that we find ourselves going back to him almost monthly. He's that good.
This video is from a year ago. It's 11 minutes of greatness. If you have 11 minutes to spare today -- and I'm guessing you do -- you need to watch this. More importantly, you need to listen to it. It's 11 minutes. Do it.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment.
| Thursday November 18, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2643 |
welcome to a new year, turge
If you're a Twitter enthusiast, last night was Stardust material in these parts.
It was, to say the least, wildly interesting to follow the last six minutes of the Maryland game on social media. Twitter is nothing if not a melting pot of opinions, "hot takes", insights and, occasionally, apologies.
As you might know by now, Maryland lost at home last night to George Mason, 71-66. If you've followed Maryland basketball at all over the last ten years, you could not have been at all surprised by the loss. The Terps are good for "one of those" at least once a year, if not more often than that. Maryland basketball has been good-but-nothing-more for a long time now.
There's a supremely inflated opinion of what Maryland should or could be in the Baltimore/Washington region. That's my hot take, anyway. Maryland basketball is exactly what they should be; a decent team in a good conference. They're never going to be Michigan State. They're never going to be Duke. Or Villanova. Or Gonzaga. They're just not. Anyone who thinks they have that in their DNA is clueless.
Anyway...I assumed Maryland would win last night but wasn't at all surprised to see them lose. They were trailing at the half - again - so I knew at that point the game was likely going down to the wire. George Mason led throughout the second half, comfortably for the most part, before Eric Ayala hit a couple of shots late to get Maryland back into it. In the end, the visitors prevailed.
And the onslaught on Mark Turgeon got started immediately thereafter.
I've never been a huge Turgeon fan. That said, I've also found the relentless pounding on the guy to be almost comical. Sure, he "gets the players" as everyone likes to say. He's basically getting what's made available to him once all the really good players are scooped up by the Duke's, Villanova's, Michigan State's and Gonzaga's of the world. Once the best players are gone, the next group chooses a school like Maryland or Wisconsin or Clemson. I love when people say, "Turgeon should recruit better players." Of course he should. And if he could, he would. But on we go...
Turgeon is always the problem when Maryland loses. Or at least that's what every Maryland fan posts on social media. I admit I even occasionally fall into that trap, too. Sometimes I even lose my mind, in other words.
Turgeon is never the reason why Maryland wins, though. When that happens, it's always the players who bailed out the coach. Now let's remember, this is the profile for virtually every team in every sport in America. The Ravens players are great when the team wins and the coaches stink when the team loses.
I've often used this example to showcase how we see things only through our lens. When Marlon Humphrey intercepts a pass, "Humphrey is a great player". When Lamar Jackson throws an interception, "OK, that might have been a bad throw, but Greg Roman is so stupid for calling that play in that situation." Wink Martindale didn't get any credit for the Humphrey pick, but Roman gets most of the blame for Lamar throwing his interception. And so it goes. For whatever weird reason, fans have taken to blaming the coaches more and more over the last 5 or so years. Maybe it's the advent of fantasy sports, where everyone is able to put a better team together than the one that's on the field today/tonight. Maybe it's still the video game era, where people excel at the latest version of "Madden" and somehow think that makes themselves an offensive coordinator-candidate in the NFL.
Whatever the reason, the coaches get almost no credit when the team does well and they get almost all of the blame when the team fails. #clownshoes
I suspect Maryland is going to be a decent team this season. They might even win a couple of games in the NCAA tournament next March. But my gut also tells me Mark Turgeon's team will wind up underachieving because it seems like that's what they always do. They're good, but never much better than we assumed they'd be. Just once, it would be nice for a Turgeon-coached team to overachieve.
No matter what eventually happens this year, though, one thing will stand the test of time. On each occasion Maryland loses a game in '21-22, Turgeon will be raked over the coals. There is no wiggle room with him and the fan base. None. He can pretty much do nothing right. And on the off chance the Terps do wind up playing above their paygrade, the players, not the coach, will get all of the credit.
You can make book on that, in the same way you know right now Maryland will lose a puzzling Big Ten game at some point in January or February. And that, of course, will be the fault of only one guy.
A few months ago, a story surfaced about a unique set of statistics that Tiger Woods used during his zenith on the PGA Tour. With "The Stats Nerd" delving into hockey today, it seemed like a good opportunity for me to bring up "The Tiger Five" and how Woods himself was ahead of his time in terms of using analytics and round-by-round data to support his quest to be the greatest golfer of all time.
Woods apparently kept "The Tiger Five" a secret for a long, long time, then decided to spill the beans at a charity event one night. Why he picked that moment to let one of his secrets out is anyone's guess, but "The Tiger Five" has become a much-discussed subject in the world of golf over the last couple of months.
Tiger started keeping in-depth statistics of his scoring sometime in his early college days at Stanford. Once he beat everyone's brains in on the amateur and college golf circuits, he decided to turn professional. And starting in 1996, Woods kept the same data on the PGA Tour that he kept in college. Eventually, he developed "The Tiger Five" and ascertained they were the key ingredients to winning a golf tournament.
1. No missed greens in regulation with a 9-iron or any wedge in his hand. In those days, circa 2000, Tiger was likely hitting his 9-iron in the 160 yard range. He used "9 iron or wedge" as the barometer, but probably also could have said "160 yards and in".
2. No three putts. Fairly self explanatory here. Woods figured out that not three putting once in 72 holes dramatically increased his chances of winning. Of course, saying "no three putts for 72 holes" and actually not having a three putt over 72 holes are two totally different things.
3. No bogeys on par 5 holes. Another one that's easy to understand. Most courses on TOUR feature four par 5's. If you play all four days (which, of course, Woods always did; at one point, he made an unthinkable 142 cuts in a row), that's 16 par 5's to play over the course of the tournament. There was a 10-year period where Woods averaged 9.75 under par for the par 5's in any tournament that featured four par 5's on the course. Imagine going to the first tee on Thursday and being able to say to yourself, "I'm already 9.75 under par and I haven't hit the opening tee shot yet." Anyway, Woods figured out if he didn't make a bogey on a par 5, he was that much closer to winning.
4. No double bogeys. Easy peasy, right. You can make the occasional bogey or two and recover quite easily from it, especially when you're Tiger Woods. But if you can go through a TOUR event without making a double bogey, you're in the catbird seat, particularly if you can also accomplish 1, 2, and 3 above.
5. No missed "easy" up and downs. This is the only one of the five that really requires some subjectivity from the player himself. Only Woods would know what an "easy" up and down is...in comparison to what might be considered a "tough" up and down. I assume pin position, green speed, length of the rough, etc. were the characteristics that defined "easy" vs. "tough" and Tiger was honest enough with himself to know the difference when it came time to self-calculate his obedience to "The Tiger Five".
So...you'd like to win a PGA Tour event someday? Well, there's the blueprint.
Don't miss a green in regulation with a 9-iron or wedge in your hand. You might get 25 of those opportunities in 4 days. You better go 25 for 25.
Don't three putt. Once you get it on the green, two putt it from there. Nothing to figure out. No three putts.
All pars, birdies and eagles on par 5's. Gotcha.
No double bogeys. Those are round killers. Don't make 'em.
Get those easy up and downs into the hole for either par or birdie. Don't squander scoring opportunities.
Tiger must have hit on "The Tiger Five" a lot throughout his career, hence his 82 TOUR wins and 15 major titles.
At Calvert Hall, we're not reinventing the wheel. We have "The Cardinal Six" that we'll be using in 2022. Our six will be different than Tiger's, because, of course, our level play is not quite what his once was. And while we'll keep our "Cardinal Six" to ourselves for the time being, let's just say our six look a lot like Tiger's five with a few tweaks here and there.
As for someone looking, say, to break 90 for the first time, I'd consider using these five as your personal guide.
1. No tee balls out of bounds or in penalty areas. Anything "re-teed" is a round killer, potentially. If you can play 18 holes without hitting a tee shot out of bounds or into a penalty area, you're on your way to breaking 90.
2. Hit four greens in regulations per-side. If you hit five or six, all the better, but hitting at least four greens per-side is a great recipe for breaking 45 for 9 holes.
3. No "flubbed" short shots or bunker shots left in the trap. Nothing is worse than getting your ball up near the green in two shots and then taking four or five to get it in the hole from there. The culprit of that is almost always a flubbed chip shot (or two) around the green. The number one goal when you miss the green should be simple; get the next one on, somewhere.
4. No more than three, 3-putts in the entire round. A 90's-shooter is going to three putt. It's inevitable. But limiting those is crucial to getting into the 80's. One or two three putts are acceptable. If you make enough pars along the way, three 3-putts might be OK. But no more than that. And it's important to remember this: scratch players can go through a round with two or three 3-putts as well. The easiest way to avoid three-putting? Hit your ball closer to the hole.
5. Play the par 5 holes in no more than one over par. This, of course, assumes your course has the traditional set-up of four par 5's on the layout. If you have four par 5's, your goal should be to play them in a maximum of 1 over par. These are the scoring holes, for the most part, and you can make a huge dent in your pursuit to break 90 by playing the par 5's well.
Now...go shoot that 86 and let's get you in the 70's soon enough!
hockey
Ice hockey is probably my second favorite spectator sport behind the NFL. I enjoy the pace of the game, the grace and athleticism of what the players do while on skates and the seeming ease with which they do it.
Like Drew, I was a long suffering Caps fan that revelled in the Stanley Cup win in June 2018. I remember being up that night watching in virtual tears that it finally happened...they raised the Cup. That beautiful, dented, abused silver cup. The memory of Lars Eller slipping the puck from between Marc-Andre Fleury's pads and into the net will be forever etched in my mind.
My father used to take my brother and I to the old Capital Centre in the late 70's and early 80's. We had some sort of partial season plan that got us tickets to 6 or 8 games per season. We listened to the great Ron Weber when we didn't go and later watched the games on Home Team Sports (now NBC Sports Washington). Most of those teams were bad...some were REALLY bad.
I still watch a ton of hockey. I hate the Pens and the Bruins far more than the Flyers (sorry Drew). As much as they are a rival of sorts, I love watching the skill of Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevski on the Tampa Bay Lightning. And I feel bad that I don't watch the stars on the Colorado Avalanche or Edmonton Oilers as much as I'd like due to the time zone difference.
Analytics in Hockey
All that said, I don't have a huge interest in hockey analytics. There are some things that I follow (discussed below) but I don't spend as much time deep diving into the various metrics. But there is no question that analytics usage is on the rise in hockey generally and certainly in the NHL.
All NHL teams have at least one staff person whose job is to present or manipulate data into digestible metrics for management, coaches and players. Like in the other major sports the reception varies from complete buy in (Maple Leafs, Lightning) to lukewarm acceptance (Rangers).
In addition, the push back from old timers is similar in hockey to other sports. Veterans of hockey will drop terms like grit and using the "eye test" to determine a player's or team's value. It's something of a running joke on social media when a relatively poorly performing hockey player is picked up by a team that the GM or coach must really like his grit (the assumption is that his hockey skills aren't very good).
Of course, the holy grail of any analytic metric is not just to describe what HAS happened but to predict what WILL happen. Metrics that are predictive of future success are of more value than just a measurement of past events. Most old school statistics aren't particularly predictive. They simply tell the reader what has happened in the past.
Traditional Hockey Metrics
Two of the most common metrics quoted in the old days are Plus/Minus (+/-) and shots on goal (SOG). +/- theoretically measures a player's contribution to their team's success based on goals scored and goals against while that player is on the ice. If a player is on the ice while 2 goals are scored and 1 goal is scored against, his +/- for that game is +1. Shots on goal are measured exactly like they sound; shots that are stopped by the goalie or go in the goal are considered shots on goal.
Like with all traditional metrics, these two are deemed to be fairly one dimensional. +/-, for example, has a lot of issues with it. It generally doesn't distinguish between 5v5 even strength play, power play or shorthanded goals. It even accounts for goals with empty nets. This clearly skews the statistic to favor certain player types at the expense of others. Using the Capitals as an example, Alex Ovechkin will be on virtually every power play for the Caps but will very rarely be on during a penalty kill.
Conversely, a guy like Carl Hagelin will virtually never be on in a PP but is a stalwart on the PK. Thus +/- in the absence of context, will favor Ovi but by definition, disfavor Hags. There's also the issue of a goalie unduly impacting +/- for a player based on their performance. For these reasons and a few others, most analytic types view +/- as a more or less worthless statistic. Some view it with utter and complete contempt. If you ever meet a hockey analytics person, ask them their thoughts on +/- and then just sit back and enjoy the histrionics.
Shots on goal is not as flawed as +/- but still doesn't really capture the entirety of the offensive push a team gets. It only measures shots that actually get through to the goalie and get...wait for it...on goal. It doesn't account for a team that gets off a lot of shots that don't necessarily get on goal...off target shots, blocked shots, etc. You may say "Well Stats Nerd, the objective is to get shots on goal so that some percent will actually end up in the goal". And I can't disagree with that. The fact that shots that hit the goal post or crossbar are NOT considered "On Goal" is weird. But it's not so much that Shots on Goal (SOG) is bad but that other measurements are better and more predictive of future results.
Corsi
Corsi is somewhat of a hybrid of the two above metrics. In lieu of shots on goal, Corsi measures shot attempts which are defined as all shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots. Corsi is the base measurement in assessing a team's offensive push. The higher the Corsi score the more time the team is spending in the offensive zone. More time in the offensive zone is more highly correlated with offensive effectiveness than any of the traditional metrics. Corsi is manipulated into a ton of team and player specific measurements that are beyond the scope of this discussion. But a basic understanding of how it is calculated may be illustrative.
Assume the Caps play Drew's least favorite team, the Flyers. Let's say the Caps have 30 shot attempts in a period and the Flyer's have 20. That would mean there were 50 shot attempts total in the period and the Caps had 60% of them (30 divided by 50 total). This is referred to as the Corsi For Percentage (CF%). Teams above 50% have more shot attempts than teams below 50%. Generally anything over 55% over a meaningful sample size is considered VERY ELITE.
Obviously teams that have strong CF% are spending more time in the offensive zone and that is predictive of future goals. A player with a strong +/- but a below average CF% over, say a 10 game sample, should be expected to revert to the mean moving forward. In other words, over that 10 game sample, that player is LIKELY outperforming expectation in the +/- statistic.
Fenwick
Fenwick is another shot metric and is calculated the same as Corsi except block shots are excluded from the calculation. Why you might ask? Well some teams tend to utilize shot blocks as a part of their strategy more than others. By eliminating blocked shots from the calculation teams with that defensive approach are less penalized using Fenwick than under a Corsi calculation. But the more important reason that Fenwick is calculated is because it is the basis for most Expected Goals (xG) modeling (see below).
In some ways, Corsi and Fenwick aren't much different than the old timers screaming "to get it on net". Pay attention to any game you will hear an analyst or a coaches interview talking about the need to throw pucks at the net. "Good things happen" they say when you do so between tips, rebounds, etc. These metrics are just a quantitative way to measure a team's territorial advantage in a set of data.
Expected Goals (xG)
You may read this and say that Corsi and Fenwick have some obvious flaws. And you would be correct. Those metrics do a good job of measuring offensive pressure which generally correlates to more goals. But they don't necessarily give the reader a good idea of the quality of the goal chances a team generates. xG helps to cover up some of those blind spots. It could be said that xG responds to the criticism that not all shot attempts are equal in terms of potential goals.
xG assigns a value to each unblocked shot taken towards the goal. It does this by assigning a weight to each shot based on shot location and adds a premium for better chances on odd man rushes or rebounds. By way of example, an innocuous shot from the point might have an xG value of .02 but a rebound directly in front of the goalie might have a value of .35. Those xG values are then aggregated over a period or game to determine which team had more high value shots.
Using xG we can then measure which team had higher quality chances and more goal expectation. Of course, over a small sample their actual goals may differ wildly from expectation. But over a larger sample, actual goals scored should converge on xG calculations.
All of the above calculations are manipulated into more detailed and granular metrics that provide additional context. For example, using xG we can determine a goalie's performance relative to expectation. If the opponent's xG was 1.5 in a period but he gave up 3 goals, he likely gave up some soft goals. The metrics can also be converted to per player statistics to assess an individual player's contribution to the team. But basically the above 3 calculations are the jumping off point for most of the advanced metrics used in hockey.
As mentioned, I don't deep dive into hockey analytics as much as golf and football. I do follow various posters on social media that post Corsi and xG metrics throughout the games. Another interesting follow is hockey heat maps. These are visual representations that show where a lot of the shot activity was in a period or game for each team. They aren't necessarily predictive of anything but show who "Won" the period or game with respect to zone time.
Analytics Impact in Games
I'm not sure any of the above have changed the way a viewer digests a game in real time. It is generally believed that Corsi is more predictive of future results than xG which is more of a tool to determine which team won the shot quality battle.
But there are 2 specific analytically driven trends that clearly reveal themselves when watching hockey: Goalie Pulling and Power Play Zone Entry.
Goalie Pulling
6 or 7 years ago a NYU professor and a billionaire hedge fund manager published a paper determining the optimal time to pull a goalie when down one goal in the 3rd period was with SIX MINUTES AND 10 SECONDS LEFT! Other analytical types have calculated the optimal times as 3-4 mins left. Historically goalies have been pulled with roughly 1 minute left.
While NHL teams have not started giving their goalie the sign that early in the 3rd (YET) the trend clearly shows goalies are being pulled earlier in games. In the 2013-2014 season the goalies were pulled with an average time remaining of 1:13 when down 1 goal in the third period.
That time has risen basically every season until last season's average of 1:50. That's roughly a 50% earlier call to pull the goalie in 7 NHL seasons. (If interested Malcolm Gladwell had a really interesting podcast where he went through all of this with the authors of the paper. I think it was 3 or so years ago but if you Google Malcolm Gladwell pulling the goalie you will find it easily)
In some ways, the decision to pull the goalie is somewhat analogous to NFL coaches 4th down decisions. They make a decision that has material reward potential but comes with material risk associated with it. Empty net goals effectively end the game in most cases. But it is all about increasing WP%. Younger and more analytically savvy coaches understand that there is not much difference in losing by 1 goal versus losing by 2 other than the optics. Expect the trend for earlier and earlier goalie pulls to continue if the data continues to show higher WP% in doing so.
Power Play Zone Entry
Often referred to as the "drop back play" or the "slingshot" this zone entry concept is not analytically driven per se but analytics have documented it's success over the last 10 years. Thus, this play is now utilized by virtually every NHL team as a means to enter the offensive zone while on a power play. If you've watched any hockey in the last few years, you've no doubt seen this strategy utilized.
The basics of the strategy are that a player (often the defenseman in a power play line up) starts the breakout from his own defensive zone. As he crosses his team's blue line, he will drop the puck back to a forward now skating at full speed behind that defenseman. The new puck handler will often be the fastest and best puck handler on his team. His goal will be to carry the puck into the offensive zone without a subsequent pass at full speed. From there, the team is able to set up a power play attack.
By way of example, on the Capitals this will typically be John Carlson (74) starting with the puck and dropping it to Evgeny Kuznetsov (92). As one of the fastest and best handling Caps, 92 will attempt to enter the zone with the puck and set up the attack as his teammates come into the zone behind him. To counteract this strategy, defenses will try to clog up the middle of the ice so that he can't enter at full speed. 92's reaction to that will be to "dump" the puck deep into the offensive zone. Then his team will have 5 players versus the defenders 4 to retrieve the puck and set up the power play.
I hope this is of some use to you to understand the analytics of hockey. Hockey is a distant 4th in terms of popularity of the 4 major sports. But it too is a billion dollar business that offers rich rewards to successful teams. A story hit just this week that the Pittsburgh Penguins are close to being purchased by the Fenway Sports Group. No specifics have been announced but the Pens were valued at ~$850 million in 2020.
The current owners (notably Mario Lemieux) paid just over $100 million in 1999. Not a bad return on investment in ~22 years. Just like any other big business, data and analytics will be an important part of running and assessing hockey teams now and in the future.
Week 10 NFL
Some interesting 4th down decision points this past weekend. The one that generated the most back and forth that I saw was Ron Rivera's decision to go for it up 4 on 4th and Goal from the Tampa 1 with 31 seconds left in the game. The models liked going for it in that spot though not by a lot. The one's that I checked ranged from a 1-2% WP%. Of course, that deep in the opponent's territory WFT already had a WP% approaching 100% so there wasn't a ton of room for improvement in that percentage.
A few NFL commentators thought it was a gamble and that kicking the field goal to go up 7 and then kick to the Brady led Bucs. Again, I think either approach is probably marginally fine but I think it frames up some of the old vs. new debates pretty well. Some commentators just struggle to let go of the "take the points" mentality that has permeated the NFL for most of its existence. A more interesting situation would have presented itself, I think, if there had been more time on the clock.
MNF
I often get a kick out of commentators and TV types that just say random stuff that doesn't appear to be grounded in any sort of reality. That happened in Monday Night's game early in the 4th Quarter. Steve Levy, ESPN's lead play by play guy for the NFL, made a big production of stating a few times that the SF Niners going for it, up big, on 4th and 5 from the +40 was a gamble.
Further, he essentially implied that going for it was an implicit thumbing their nose at analytics. The implication was that analytics would have told the Niners to punt there...I guess??
I have no idea what Levy was saying but the idea that going for it wasn't supported by analytics was an odd statement.
| Wednesday November 17, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2642 |
a bunch of little things
As is almost always the case around here, Randy Morgan will handle the full review and account of last night's U.S. soccer game in Jamaica, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
But I'll chip in with a few thoughts of my own, if that's OK.
Make no mistake about it, the U.S. are in solid position to qualify for Qatar '22 with six games remaining, but there's still work to be done. Canada, a 2-1 winner over Mexico late last night, leads the 8-team CONCACAF table with 16 points while the U.S. has 15 points. The top three teams after the 14-game schedule automatically qualify for next winter's World Cup.
The U.S. performance on Tuesday started off strong, with Timothy Weah putting the Americans up in the 11th minute, but things soured rather quickly after Jamaica tied the score at 1-1 in the 22nd minute. The rest of the night was largely an exercise in futility for Gregg Berhalter's team. By the 70th minute, their soccer was expressionless and it was time to play out the final 20 minutes for a draw and the comfort of staying in the top two of CONCACAF.
Randy will probably address these two issues in his game summary piece below, but let me add two quick questions (as I write this, I haven't read his column, which I rarely do in advance of publishing it).
Why didn't Berhalter start Christian Pulisic last night? I get it, he's coming into the team off an injury that essentially kept him sidelined for six weeks, but he played a bit for Chelsea two weeks ago and saw 20 minutes of action on Friday night vs. Mexico. Is he not yet "game fit?" Did the U.S. Soccer Federation make some sort of agreement with Chelsea that they wouldn't play Pulisic more than, say, 40 minutes in the two games?
I'll never understand not playing your best player from the start. I don't get it at all. If it was injury or fitness related, I do understand that. But all things being equal, Pulisic should have been a starter last night in Jamaica.
The other question: Why can't the U.S. find someone to trigger their free kicks and corner kicks? I get it, some of those duties usually fall on Weston McKennie and he wasn't available last night due to a suspension. But he's the only guy on the roster who can do it? I find that hard to believe. Either way, the team's "performance" last night on free and corner kicks was amateur-hour stuff. I've seen better formations and executions in the Calvert Hall vs. Curley games every year.
The remaining schedule for World Cup qualifying shifts in favor of the U.S. from here on in; they do have a pair of tough road games to play, still: at Canada and at Mexico, as well as an away trip to Costa Rica, which hasn't always been the friendliest of venues for the Americans. But their remaining three home games come against Honduras, El Salvador and Panama. Of those, only Panama has anything to left to play for once qualifying resumes in January.
There's no telling exactly how the standings will fall once qualifying ends, but it seems fair to think 22 points will be enough to snag one of the top three spots and 26 points might be enough to finish as the top team in CONCACAF. The U.S. next plays January 27 at home vs. El Salvador, January 30 at Canada and February 2 at home vs. Honduras. 7 points there (2 wins and a tie) will likely push the U.S. through, but if not, they'll have to clinch their trip in March when they play at Mexico, home vs. Panama and at Costa Rica.
The international soccer formula is pretty simple; win at home and gain at least a tie on the road. So far in 8 games, the Americans have won 4, lost 1 and tied 3. Their only loss of the qualifying cycle came at Panama, 1-0. If they can continue their success at home when play resumes in January, Qatar '22 will no longer be a dream for Gregg Berhalter's team.
In case you haven't heard, starting Christmas Day, you'll no longer call the sports arena in Los Angeles "Staples Center". Instead, the name will be "Crypto.com Arena."
I kid you not.
"Crypto.com Arena".
Here's the deal: I have no idea what crypto currency even is. Now, perhaps that's why someone at Crypto.com decided to fork over $700 million to grab the naming rights away from the folks at Staples. Maybe they're looking for people like to me to get interested in crypto currency because I see their name attached to the arena in Los Angeles. $700 million is a lot of money to promote something, though. I mean, did Staples really sell $700 million of their product in 20 years that they wouldn't have sold had they not been the namesake of the arena in Los Angeles? I have no idea.
Naming rights and things like that have always fascinated me, going back to my days in the soccer business when we sold dasherboard advertisements, game program ads, radio ads and anything else we throw a logo on.
In 1997, we even went as far as to basically change our entire color scheme and uniform "look" in order to consumate a deal with the folks at Dannon Yogurt. The Spirit (nee Blast) went from a color combination of red with black trim to royal blue and gold and we slapped a Dannon logo right in the middle of our jersey. I believe our "fee" for that transition was $150,000, which in those days represented the largest cash sponsorship in all of soccer. Too bad we couldn't get $700 million back then, huh?
Anyway -- I'm still trying to find someone to make me understand what "crypto currency" is and how it works and why, someday, it might be better to use than cash.
I've probably had a dozen people try and explain it to me. None of them have succeeded. I've googled it and read an article or three. I still don't understand it. Now, I'll be the first to admit that I could be the problem. I'm from Glen Burnie, after all. But I just don't get it, no matter how many smart people explain it to me. Or try to, at least.
I'd love to know what Staples thinks of their 22-year investment out in Los Angeles and whether or not it was a good thing for them in the long run. More importantly, how long will the building remain "Crypto.com Arena"? That's the real question now.
Every year when post-season awards get announced, I find myself laughing at the people who get offended that one of our local baseball or football players got by-passed for an award.
I say this all the time: Who cares?
This week's big civic outcry involves Ryan Mountcastle, who didn't even make the final three for American League Rookie of the Year honors. Mountcastle had a very good season, of course. And I think, personally, he should have been a finalist, although I don't subscribe to the fact he had a bigger, more important campaign than Randy Arozarena of the Rays, who won the award. But that's neither here nor there.
Why are people so upset that Mountcastle didn't win? I mean, maybe he should be upset. I assume he had some sort of clause in his contract that would have netted him a nice bonus had he won the award. But why are so many fans upset and bellyaching on Twitter about Mountcastle not winning?
The NFL Most Valuable Player argument is the other hot-button topic and that one is already heating up...and we haven't even reached Thanksgiving. Baltimore football fans are, naturally, clamoring for Lamar Jackson to be in the mix. The people in Buffalo think they have a case for Josh Allen. That guy in Tampa Bay is always a candidate. So, too, is Aaron Rodgers. Heck, if Tennessee keeps playing the way they are, Ryan Tannehill might even be a potential MVP selection.
Why does it matter so much to the fans who wins the MVP award? I've never really figured that out.
I do understand why it's important to the player(s). That said, there's a train of thought that says any award one of your players receives probably does nothing except eventually cost the team more money to keep him. Lamar Jackson with the 2019 MVP award or Lamar Jackson without the 2019 MVP award...which one would cost less money?
Fans should probably be hoping their favorite players don't win the Rookie of the Year or MVP awards. Seems weird, but it's true.
I've just never figured out why it's so critical for the fans to see their favorite players win post-season awards. I guess it's just a pride thing, but does it really matter at all?
From the "bird in a tree" file, it's never too early to start thinking about next April's NFL Draft. I'm hearing the Ravens have interest in offensive lineman Trevor Penning of Northern Iowa, who has fluctuated between a late first round and early second round pick in most of the early mock drafts.
Yes, I know what you're thinking. "Mock draft...in November?" Heck, there were mock drafts out in September.
Anyway, I'm hearing the Ravens love Penning. Whether he evetually plays his way into a first round talent remains to be seen, but the Ravens will likely pick somewhere in the 20's in the first round, which should net them virtually anyone they want, position-wise.
Given what we've seen thus far in '21, the team's most obvious needs are: offensive line, defensive line, edge/pass rusher.
Sure, this year's injury list has robbed the team of players in those positions (Stanley, Wolfe), but there's no way of knowing what Ronnie Stanley will be like when he returns next season. Offensive line seems like a spot the Ravens need to invest heavily in this coming off-season, whether that's via free agency, the draft, or a combination of both. Penning and Rasheed Walker (Penn State) will both draw significant attention from the Ravens in April, I would think.
u.s. 1 - jamaica 1
The US traveled to Jamaica on Tuesday with positive momentum from one of their best performances in recent memory. With a chance to build off their big win over Mexico, the US came out hot in Jamaica, but ultimately couldn't capitalize on an early goal. In the end they settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw that nonetheless keeps their qualification campaign on schedule.
Gregg Berhalter was forced to make two changes to the lineup with Weston McKennie and Miles Robinson both suspended for the game. 19 year old Gianluca Busio replaced McKennie and 21 year old Chris Richards started in place of Robinson. The rest of the lineup remained the same from the Mexico game.
Early in the game, both sides came out pressing the other high up the field. The Americans often opted to play through the Jamaican press to maintain possession of the ball. Jamaica, on the other hand, looked almost exclusively to play long balls forward for star striker Michail Antonio and attempt to win the second balls to get into the US defense.
It was the US that controlled the early part of the game, connecting on several nice passing sequences in the first twenty minutes. The best of these sequences led to the opening goal in the 10th minute. After Brenden Aaronson worked hard to win the ball back near the Jamaican box, the US recycled possession into midfield. Eventually the ball ended up with center back Chris Richards, who played a pass into Gianluca Busio, who then found Weah with a one touch pass leading to a combo with Ricardo Pepi. Weah then beat his man one on one in the box and clipped a deft shot past the keeper that dinked in off the far post. It was one of the prettier goals the US has scored in recent memory and at the time it seemed like the team had carried in their swagger from the Mexico game.
Unfortunately they weren't able to capture that magic again on the night. Another nice sequence a few minutes later involving a give and go between Pepi and Weah led to a good shot for Pepi from the top of the box but his shot and Brenden Aaronson's rebound were both blocked.
Jamaica then regrouped and got themselves back in the game. In the 22nd minute it was another long ball from keeper Andre Blake looking for Antonio that started the sequence. Walker Zimmerman did a good job to win the initial header but Jamaica pounced on the second ball and it found Antonio in space. Tyler Adams made a good recovery to slow Antonio, but the West Ham striker cut back and fired a long range rocket that beat Zack Steffen and evened the game.
Neither team created much danger during the rest of the half as the US held a slight edge in possession. The next chance came early in the second half when Yunus Musah beat several defenders on the dribble then layed it off for Busio near the edge of the box. Busio hit a curling shot that just went over the crossbar. Despite maintaining a decent edge in possession throughout the second half the US failed to find another threatening chance. It was Jamaica who found the two best chances in the second half, with the US somewhat lucky to escape with the draw.
Just a minute after Busio's shot, Jamaica missed out on a golden opportunity. Antonee Robinson attempted to clear a cross to the back post but mishit it and saw it land directly in the path of Bobby Decordova-Reid, but fortunately for the US he blasted it over the goal from point blank range.
The scariest moment for the US came in the 84th minute. After a series of corner kicks, it appeared Jamaica had scored a winner off a corner kick header, but it was quickly waived off as the Jamaican player was called for a foul for pushing Zimmerman down as he jumped for the ball. The late addition of Christian Pulisic as a sub was not enough to turn the tide in this one and the US settled for a 1-1 draw.
This was another game where the US held a decent possession edge, with 62% of the ball, but failed to create many dangerous chances. They led Jamaica with nine shots to seven but it was arguably Jamaica who had the best chance to take the lead in the second half.
The big problem for the Americans in this one was their ball progression from the back line. Walker Zimmerman and Chris Richards both did well in their duels with the Jamaican attack, especially winning many headers on the long balls out from the keeper. However, the entire back line had a day to forget with regards to their passing and ball movement. Zimmerman was especially bad, connecting on just 6 of 19 long balls, often gifting the ball right back to Jamaica.
The US had multiple promising passing sequences, but they often broke down on the final pass. The two full backs could not provide any danger from the wings in this one. Both Yedlin and Robinson were off on their crossing all night, failing to find teammates and often just blatantly overhitting the ball.
In a continuing theme, the US was once again poor on set pieces. This was a problem against Mexico as well. Gianluca Busio took a few of the free kicks in this game and provided slightly better delivery, but the US still failed to get anything close to a dangerous chance from their many corners and free kicks on the night. This needs to be an area of focus for improvement going forward, as set pieces can often win or lose closely contested World Cup matches, especially against more talented opponents.
There weren't many players that stood out for good or bad in this one besides the problems on the back line. Tim Weah continued his hot streak from the Mexico game with his early goal and he had several nice passing combinations and dangerous crosses. Though he did fade a bit from the game before being substituted in the second half and he was not quite as decisive as he was against Mexico.
Yunus Musah had another solid game in midfield. He was frequently seen gliding past opponents with the ball and hit several creative passes as well. For a teenager, his awareness of the space around him and his fluidity on the ball are remarkable. He has solidified his starting spot in this two game window and is only just touching the surface of his potential.
At the end of the day, the US will take the draw, along with the win over Mexico and leave the window happy with their standing. With Canada pulling off a big 2-1 win over Mexico late on Tuesday night, and Panama beating El Salvador, the US sits second in the table, one point behind Canada and one point ahead of fourth place Panama. It's a tight group at the top, fighting for the three automatic qualification spots.
The US will need to remain sharp and return in January focused and ready to pick up where they left off. They will play an exhibition match with Bosnia and Herzegovina on December 18th that will likely only feature "B" team players from MLS. The full team will return for a three game qualifying window in late January.
| Tuesday November 16, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2641 |
thanks a lot, tigers
I spent a couple of hours in the San Diego airport yesterday. I know...there are worse places to be on a Monday, right?
Realizing I would be largely disconnected from the outside world for five hours while in-flight, I immersed myself in the internet for a little while to get caught up and start planning out my week here at #DMD.
Editor's note: I realize you can pay $8 for the internet on Southwest, but I look at those five hours as if they're a reward for not being tied to the frenetic pace of the world. So I never pay for the internet on a flight. Never.
As I started breezing through Twitter to see what was going on (lots of ads these days, more than I remember), I saw a variety of #Orioles hashtags and got excited for a second. I even saw this tweet, below, and thought, "Holy cow, the Orioles signed Eduardo Rodriguez?"
"E-Rod is just the kind of pitcher the #Orioles need. And 5 years/$77 million is a nice investment for him."
The Orioles signed Eduardo Rodriguez!!!???
Alas, they didn't. The Detroit Tigers did.
Then, as I scrolled through a few hours of tweets and opinions from #Orioles fans, I saw the expected reaction. Some folks chastised the Birds for not signing a guy like Rodriguez, whom once pitched in Baltimore before being shipped to Boston for Andrew Miller, while others crowed that it still isn't time just yet for the O's to start throwing money at free agents.
Both sides are right.
Rodriguez actually is a good investment at $77 million for 5 years. Some baseball experts think he'll flourish in Detroit. Making 14 or so less starts in Fenway Park has to help, right? Not having to face the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays 8 or 10 times a year should also improve his numbers.
His last two years have been particularly impressive, with an overall mark of 32-11 and a 3.81 ERA. There are some other fancy pitching stats to consider, if that's your sort of thing. He's not going to the Hall of Fame someday, but the Tigers just got better by adding the 28-year old lefthander.
So...why not the Orioles?
That's a fair question. It's always important to remember, during discussions like these, that part of being a "free" agent is you get to decide where you're going to go. The Tigers are certainly a more attractive option than the Orioles at this point. The A.L. Central has one really good team right now -- the White Sox -- and not much else. The Indians are starting over, the Twins are re-tooling as well, and Kansas City is...well...Kansas City. If Detroit can squeeze past the White Sox, they have a legit shot at winning the A.L. Central sometime in the near future.
I have no idea if the Orioles had $77 million, $87 million or -- the more likely total -- zero millions to throw at Rodriguez. I can only imagine how difficult it would be to cough up $77 million for a player you gave away seven years ago.
So all things being equal, Rodriguez-to-Baltimore was never going to happen, no matter if it might have helped or not. The Orioles aren't ready to start sinking money into free agents of that caliber and free agents of that caliber aren't ready to choose the Orioles. You can't dance with her if she stands by the water cooler all night waiting for someone else.
But it's worth noting that the days of the Orioles needing to add some quality free agents to the mix is slowly approaching. Perhaps even by this time next year, Mike Elias and his staff will have to start offering people like Eduardo Rodriguez $77 million for 5 years. The rebuilding effort is largely done via the draft and international signings. I think we all get that. But the final piece of the puzzle will have to involve signing a few established players or adding some veterans at the trade deadline who have beefy contracts still in play.
I don't think Eduardo Rodriguez would have made a difference with the Orioles in 2022. He might make a difference with the Tigers in '22, which is why they added him yesterday. Therein lies the difference between the paths currently occupied by both teams. The O's are trying to get better, but their journey is still uphill. The Tigers think they are better and they're ready to start the climb back to respectability.
But for a little while on Monday, hot stove talk in Baltimore ratcheted up a notch and it was, honestly, kind of enjoyable to follow. It's been a while since Charm City baseball fans even contemplated a free agent signing of any importance. (Sorry, Freddy Galvis, no offense intended there.) So reading the back-and-forth from people who thought the Birds should have pursued E-Rod was, if nothing else, a nice change of pace.
A more thorough dissection of Twitter on Monday showed people flipping out over John Harbaugh's commentary regarding Miami's (successful) use of the Cover-0 defense in last Thursday's win over the Ravens.
"We've got it figured out...we're better prepared to face it than anyone else in the league," Harbs said yesterday.
Predictably, folks lashed out at the 14-year Ravens leader.
"You didn't have it figured out last Thursday!" a bunch of folks wrote.
"LOL at Harbaugh," someone else opined. "He has no clue and neither does Greg Roman. You don't just "figure out" the Cover-0 overnight."
What, actually, did you expect or want the head coach to say when he was asked about it?
"Yeah...it's a problem...we're really hoping no other teams use Cover-0 against us this season because we can't seem to figure out how to beat it."
---- or -----
"No problem. We watched the video, looked at our personnel, and figured out a nice way to handle the Cover-0 moving forward. If we see it again, we'll have an answer for it."
I don't know about you, but I'd rather hear Harbaugh tell us the Ravens have it figured out. The proof will come in the pudding, of course, and you can assume the Bears will throw some Cover-0 at Lamar Jackson and the offense this Sunday in Chicago. But I'd rather hear the coach tell me they have it figured out than not figured out.
Now, if the Ravens see that defensive scheme again this season and don't handle it well, let the questions and comments fly.
At this point, though, let's assume Harbaugh is telling the truth. I mean, he can't help but know that defensive formation confounded his quarterback and offensive coordinator last Thursday night. If those two can't figure out a way to beat Cover-0 moving forward, the Ravens might be in trouble. But the bet here is they'll come up with a solution rather quickly.
usa vs. jamaica preview
The US men travel to Kingston to play Jamaica at 5:00pm tonight in the second of two November World Cup Qualifiers. The game marks the turn to the second half of the qualifying schedule, which will see the US play each team in the group a second and final time.
The Americans enter on an emotional high after a resounding win over rivals Mexico. The second half against Mexico was the best soccer the team has played under Gregg Berhalter and they'll look to build on that in Jamaica.
Jamaica will be a tougher test this time around than when the US dominated them in a 2-0 home win in October. Following that loss they regrouped and got an impressive draw with Canada and a win over Honduras, then drew on the road to El Salvador last week. Several big name additions will be available against the US that were missing in the previous matchup. English Premier League stars, striker Michail Antonio and winger Leon Bailey are back on the Jamaican roster and bring a dangerous attacking edge that was missing in October.
Make no mistake, the US is still favored, but they can't rest on their laurels after the big victory over Mexico. This team should have learned by now that road games in CONCACAF are never guaranteed. The US did catch a break with the crowd being reduced to 5,000 due to Covid restrictions, limiting the hostile atmosphere.
Berhalter will be without two key starters from the Mexico game, with Weston McKennie and Miles Robinson both suspended due to card accumulation. Chris Richards will likely slot in for Robinson alongside Walker Zimmerman in the back line. The tougher decision for Berhalter is the choice at midfield. Gianluca Busio has been playing very well at his club Venezia in Italy and has a dynamic attacking skill set. However, Berhalter has been reluctant to rely on young players in road games during this qualifying cycle, so he could call on one of the more veteran options in Kellyn Acosta or Sebastian Lletget. My guess is that Acosta will get the nod, but we're likely to see several of those options get time by the end of the game.
Regardless of the choice to replace McKennie, the US should have a strong advantage in the midfield. The position is the weakest on Jamaica's roster and it was an area of the field the Americans controlled in the first game. The combo of Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah have remarkable athleticism and endurance and can wear down even the best opponents, as they showed against Mexico. Acosta would bring a similar profile to help suffocate the Jamaican midfield, while Busio or Acosta could provide a little more attacking ability to connect with the forward line.
Many thought that Matt Turner would get a rotation in goal against Jamaica, but it has been announced that Zack Steffen will start, so it seems he has reclaimed the position for the time being. The other spot where a change seems possible is right back. Deandre Yedlin delivered an unexpectedly solid performance against Mexico, but Berhalter may opt to give teenager Joe Scally an opportunity with three points already secured in this window.
Jamaica's current standing in the table (5 points out of qualifying spot) may play to the Americans' advantage. While Jamaica would normally be content to sit off the US a bit and try to counter attack, they will be forced to press the issue offensively in this one. With a large point deficit to make up, Jamaica needs to start getting wins, especially at home. This could open up big gaps at the back for the US to exploit. Christian Pulisic will be a great option to find those opportunities as a second half substitute with fresh legs against a potentially tiring defense.
The win against Mexico provides the US with a golden opportunity to take all six points from this November window and take a big step toward punching their ticket to Qatar '22. The team just needs to avoid complacency and bring the same intensity against a weaker opponent and they should head into 2022 in a formidable position.
| Monday November 15, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2640 |
life on the other coast
I think I'll take advantage of yesterday's relatively light local schedule to opine on something you might not actually be all that familiar with -- depending on how many times you've been to the western part of the country.
Let me first just say, quickly, the Capitals are off to an outstanding start to the '21-22 season, punctuated by yesterday's 6-1 thrashing of the Penguins. I know there are a lot of Caps fans who regard the Penguins -- not the Flyers or Rangers -- as the franchise's arch-rival. I personally find the Flyers far more easy to dislike than the Penguins, but I get it. The Caps haven't always been able to get the best of the black and gold team from Pittsburgh, so a 6-1 regular season win is quite a treat.
I'll also just add this quickly about the world of professional golf from Sunday. Jason Kokrak, who won the Houston Open on the PGA Tour, is just a major win away from being a legit game-breaker on TOUR. I thought he should have been added to September's Ryder Cup team after his 2-win season, but he didn't make the final squad. That's OK, though. His '21-22 campaign is off to a great start after yesterday's come-from-behind win. That guy is really starting to make a name for himself.
On the Champions Tour, Bernhard Langer, at age 64, was able to win his 6th season-long Charles Schwab Cup Championship after shooting 63-69 on the weekend to secure the triumph. I know I've mentioned this story here before but given what transpired yesterday in Arizona, it's worth repeating.
I was blessed to be paired with Langer in two practice rounds at last summer's U.S. Senior Open in Omaha. On day one, walking down the 16th fairway, I tried to make friendly, small talk with the 2-time Masters champion.
"So how's your season going so far?" I asked him.
"Not bad," Bernhard responded. "I'm 4th in the Charles Schwab standings right now, which is the season long points tournament. That's what you want to win on the Champions Tour. You want to be the winner of the Charles Schwab Cup at the end of the year because of the bonus money it pays out."
I just blurted out the first thing that came to my mind. "You can do it," I said. "You have the game to win the whole thing."
"I should win it," Langer said, emphatically. "If I play up to my level, I definitely should win it again." I loved his approach. He seemed unfazed by guys like Ernie Els and Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen. "I should win it," Langer said to me. He expected to win. That was his mindset. "I should win it."
And, yesterday, he won it again. At 64 years old, Bernhard Langer continues to be the most consistent "senior" golfer in the world. What a player he is.
So I spent the last five days in San Diego, playing some golf and participating in the Fellowship of Christian Athletes national tournament at Torrey Pines and Del Mar CC.
I've written about San Diego here before. Several times, in fact. I always tell people it's "the best city in the country" and, truth be told, it's not even close between first and second place. San Diego is an amazing town.
This was probably my 20th time visiting San Diego in my life. What stands out to me now, though, is probably not something I realized in the '80's and '90's when I visited San Diego as part of my duties with the Blast soccer team.
The lifestyle on the West Coast is so much different than what we've come to accept and expect "back home". I'm not saying I don't like it -- but I am saying it's much, much different.
The whole time change thing is really hard to get a grasp on. You look at the clock in San Diego and it's 1:30 pm and you realize that the work day back East is just about complete. You go to dinner at 6:00 pm and call back home after you've placed your order and you realize it's 9:00 pm and the kids are already starting to get ready for bed.
It might be different if you lived in San Diego but didn't have family and work related folks to stay in touch with back East. But when you're in San Diego and you still have to keep in touch with folks in Baltimore...you have to really pay attention to the hours and the time.
Oh, and we haven't even talked about the journey from Baltimore to San Diego and how the time change plays havoc with your sleep schedule. I think, in five nights out in San Diego, that I honestly got one good night's sleep. And even that was only six hours or so in duration. But at least it was six straight, solid hours.
San Diego is great. But home is even better. I'll be back in Baltimore today, my 2021 golf schedule now officially in the rear view mirror. I had the greatest golfing year of my life in 2021, but yesterday's round at Del Mar CC will be my last tournament round of the year. If you're going to put a lid on your competitive golf season, San Diego is an awfully good place to do it, huh?
I'll tee it up again in 2022 and, hopefully, will make it back out west again at some point to catch up with old friends and enjoy the best city in America.
around the nfl in 2 minutes
The NFL. From week-to-week, it's unreal. Just when you think you might have it figured out, you don't. Sure, injuries (and these days, Covid-19, too) impact games every Sunday, but for the most part you just can't predict who will win. Well, except maybe for that guy who appears at #DMD on Sundays and make his five game picks. I hear *that guy* is having a banner year beating up on the experts in Vegas.
Anyway, here's what happened yesterday.
Cowboys 43 - Falcons 3 -- Huh? 43-3? I know Atlanta stinks, but 43-3? The Cowboys responded well to last Sunday's shocking home loss to Denver. Atlanta didn't respond well to anything, really. At least they didn't get shut out.
Titans 23 - Saints 21 -- Give New Orleans credit. You can't name five guys on their team and they're somehow 5-5 after yesterday's close loss in Nashville. And give the Titans credit, too, as they're now 2-0 without Derrick Henry in their backfield and 8-2 overall.
Colts 23 - Jaguars 17 -- I still think Indianapolis could be a dangerous team if they somehow squeeze into the playoffs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are playing most teams tough every week, even though their 2-7 record indicates they're a lousy team. I'd love to be wrong about Indy -- but I think they could be a tough out in the post-season.
Patriots 45 - Browns 7 -- Wow. New England is starting to look like they might be a legit threat in the AFC. I realize Cleveland was hampered by injuries yesterday, but New England just keeps on beating people. Their 4-game win streak isn't overly impressive (Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Browns) but any win in the NFL is worth hootin' and hollerin' over when you're employing a rookie QB like they are in Foxborough. Bill Belichick is going to be heard from in 2021.
Bills 45 - Jets 17 -- It got so bad for the Jets yesterday they wound up letting Joe Flacco come in for mop-up duty. Buffalo lost to Jacksonville last week and then blew out the Jets this week. The NFL is so, so weird. The thing about Buffalo is this: The AFC East was supposed to be on cruise control for them in '21 but the play of the Patriots has changed that somewhat. Buffalo still has yet to play the Pats, by the way. The first meeting between the two teams is December 6.
Steelers 16 - Lions 16 OT -- If Pittsburgh was still wondering whether Mason Rudolph is the QB of the future -- or not -- the answer probably came yesterday in the form of a 16-16 OT tie with the Lions. Rudolph couldn't even beat Detroit in his own building. #clowshoes
Washington 29 - Buccaneers 19 -- A weird game indeed. The Bucs lost for just the third time all season and the Washington Football Team won for just the third time. Tampa Bay has to remember they weren't all that great in the regular season last year, either, then caught fire in the post-season and finished the year on a 4-game playoff winning streak that earned them the franchise's 2nd Super Bowl title. Not much to see here. Tampa Bay will still win the NFC South and will be a tough out in January.
Panthers 34 - Cardinals 10 -- Wow, no Kyler Murray...no chance for Arizona. The 2nd career of Cam Newton in Charlotte got off to a rousing start and the Panthers, at least for now, remained in the thick of the NFC wild card race with their win over Arizona. The Cardinals need to get healthy in order to challenge for the top spot in the NFC. Without Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, they're a bottom feeder.
Vikings 27 - Chargers 20 -- The Vikings could be the NFL's most puzzling team. If not for that second half collapse against the Ravens last Sunday, they would have gone on the road and defeated Baltimore and Los Angeles in successive weeks, which is quite a feat. Meanwhile, the Chargers continue to sputter, speaking of puzzling teams. There's no telling where they're going to finish up in '21, but you would be wise not to wager on Justin Herbert's team for the rest of the campaign.
Eagles 30 - Broncos 13 -- Speaking of weird teams. The Eagles. And the Broncos. Both of them are weird. Denver blew out the Cowboys last week in Dallas, then returned home and lost to the Eagles, who last Sunday fell to the Chargers in Philadelphia. Oh, and the Vikings beat the Chargers yesterday, two weeks after losing at home to the Cowboys, who just lost to Denver last week. Got all of that? It all points to one thing. The NFL is the craziest league ever invented.
Packers 17 - Seahawks 0 -- So much for Russell Wilson's return, eh? He went 20-of-40 for 161 yards and a QB rating of 39.7. Those are, what we call here in Baltimore, "Kyle Boller numbers." The Packers continue to impress, but that January home playoff game always lurks and, well, just go ahead and look up how Aaron Rodgers has done in the post-season over the years.
Chiefs 41 - Raiders 14 -- Hard to tell if we now know more about the Chiefs or the Raiders after last night's shellacking, but it's pretty clear Las Vegas doesn't have much left in the tank after losing their head coach and star wide receiver this season. Kansas City, meanwhile, looks like the team we've known for the last three years, albeit on a one night basis. I'll continue saying this until January rolls around and they prove me right or wrong: The Chiefs are the one team the Ravens won't want to face in the playoffs.
#dmd comments
| Sunday November 14, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2639 |
a few notes
This is, yet again, one of those rare Sundays where the rest of the NFL plays football and Baltimore does not.
Alas, we're still in the league -- unlike 1984 when it was silent from September through January -- even though the Ravens lost to the Dolphins on Thursday night.
Speaking of that game, I've seen a lot of people opine over the last few days that the 22-10 defeat to Miami was the worst regular season loss in John Harbaugh's tenure.
I'll sound like Harbs now when I write this, but I don't really know how you compare those kinds of things. I wrote on Thursday after the debacle that it was "one of the worst 5 losses of Harbaugh's career in Baltimore" and I'll stand by that even now. The 12-7 Monday night loss at Jacksonville stands out; the shellacking at the hands of the Jaguars in London is another one; the woodshed beating in Houston in 2013 was also pretty ugly.
I don't know how you rank them all, but Thursday night in Miami was definitely ugly. I'd make a quip about the Flyers cheerleaders at this point, but I'm growing out of that phase of my life. I think...
Some folks are suggesting that next Sunday in Chicago could be a season-defining game for the Ravens. It's true the schedule does beef up a bit after next Sunday, but I wouldn't think John Harbaugh's team would be in danger of derailing if, somehow, they fail to beat the lowly Bears.
That said, I do subscribe to the idea that next Sunday is an important game for the Ravens. And for Harbaugh. And for Wink Martindale and Greg Roman. Games like the one we saw in Miami last Thursday happen all the time. You'd prefer they not to happen to your team, obviously. And one of the reasons why we were all so stunned with the turn of events in Miami is because throughout his 14 year career in Baltimore, Harbaugh usually mops the floor with those bottom feeder teams like the Dolphins.
It's important, even if they're only proving it to themselves, that the Ravens show everyone what happened last Thursday night was an outlier. A win in Chicago and they're 7-3 and still very much in control of their own destiny in the AFC North. But a loss to the Bears and suddenly you're 6-4 and things are starting to get a little tight at the top. Oh, and let's not forget, the Ravens have still only played one game against an AFC North rival so far in 2021. They really do need a win in Chicago next Sunday, for a variety of reasons.
I still don't think Alex Ovechkin (742 career goals) is going to catch Wayne Gretzky (894 goals) and someday become the NHL's all-time leading goal scorer.
It's just a numbers game. And a battle against Father Time. Let's say Ovechkin (12 goals already this season) finishes the year with 45 tallies, which seems very reasonable. That gives him 775 goals. He still needs 120 to set the new record.
That would be 40 per-season for the next three seasons. I just don't think he can do it.
But ---- here's what I will say. Oveckhin is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the league in my opinion.
This is somewhat of a similar argument that's routinely made in golf when comparing Nicklaus to Woods. Jack won more majors than Tiger (18 to 15), but Tiger won more golf tournaments (82 to 73). To me, you can debate who had the better career, but I don't think there's any doubt that Tiger was actually a better "golfer" than Nicklaus.
The same goes for Gretzky vs. Ovechkin, in my mind. Gretzky might have finished with more goals, but Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer. Gretzky was the better "overall player", I believe. But when it comes down to the art and science of scoring goals, I think Ovechkin is the best I've ever seen, even though he'll likely end up somewhere around 850 career goals and miss the record by a pretty big number.
Maryland basketball (3-0) is off to a nice start after last night's 68-57 home win over Vermont. Maryland actually trailed at the half, 36-32, in that one. Keep in mind that once the Big Ten schedule heats up, our basketball analyst, Dale Williams, will be here regularly with game previews and reviews. For now, the Terps are just crushing inferior opponents and stacking up non-conference wins that will come in handy in the pursuit of a 20-win campaign and a trip to the NCAA tournament next March.
Mark Turgeon is, naturally, under the gun again this season, as Maryland looks to make a serious run in March Madness. The transfer portal has certainly helped the Terps -- and a lot of other school as well -- and both Eric Ayala and Donta Scott are on the verge of all-Big-Ten status if they can put together solid campaigns in '21-22.
This team is poised to do big things if Turgeon knits it all together and gets the Terrapins to gel at the right time next spring.
Hope springs eternal, they say. I don't have any official kind of proclamation on what Maryland's record will be this season other than to say this: Those of you who use the Sweet Sixteen as your benchmark for success will be happy this year, I believe. Maryland will win a couple of tournament games in March and Turgeon, finally, will get a little off-season peace and quiet.
"let's get the expensive shower heads"
One of the highlights of a recent trip to a resort in Tampa Bay for a senior golf tournament was the shower head in my room.
It's amazing how the little things matter the older we get, huh?
The only issue with the shower head I'm talking about? They're expensive. And the pipe requirements in your bathroom are different since the shower head sits on the ceiling instead of coming in from the wall like you see in about 95% of the bathrooms everywhere.
But when you're scorching Vegas nine weeks into the season and you've already spent $100,000 more on the beach house than you initially thought you might, what's another $10,000 in fancy pipe work and a shower head?
The pipe guy is coming tomorrow to get started on the project, so we might as well give you this week's five NFL games so we can have a check ready for him once everything gets finished Monday evening.
BROWNS AT PATRIOTS (-2.5) -- It's getting to the point where we're going to have to start taking the Patriots seriously. I thought we might get a 2 or 3 hiatus on that, but apparently not. Mac Jones is fitting right in and Bill Belichick would love, love, love to see TB12 and the Bucs in Los Angeles in February. And wouldn't the TV folks love that, too? Cleveland comes in on the heels of a nice win over the Bengals last Sunday but their good fortune slows down in Foxborough today, as we're taking New England and laying the 2.5 points in a 27-23 win over the Browns.
BILLS AT JETS (+13.0) -- Are the Bills really good enough to go on the road and give a division rival 13 points? That sure seems like a lot, even though we all know the Jets aren't very good and Buffalo seems to be one of the better teams in the AFC. We've gone back and forth on this one, talking ourselves into the Jets, then the Bills, then the Jets again. In the end, we think Buffalo is good enough to win but we'll take New York to cover the 13 points in their own stadium, as the Bills win 26-16.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON (+10.0) -- Remember last January when Tommy B and the Bucs went into D.C. and wiped out the no-names in the first playoff game? It was easy-peasy then and it should be easy-peasy today, too. We'll take Tampa Bay and lay the 10 points, as Brady and Company jumps out to a 20-7 halftime lead and cruises from there to a 34-17 win over Washington.
VIKINGS AT CHARGERS (-3.0) -- Which Minnesota team shows up today? The one that built a 24-10 lead in Baltimore last Sunday or the one that couldn't make a defensive stop in the 2nd half of that game? The Chargers are also a bit of an unknown, but we're struggling to figure out if the Vikings have a chance today or will they get blown out? We think the Vikings stand up and fight this afternoon in L.A., so we're taking Minnesota and the 3 points as the Chargers hit a field goal at the buzzer to win, 30-28.
EAGLES AT BRONCOS (-1.5) -- This one sure seems like a classic letdown game, huh? Denver blasted the Cowboys last Sunday in "Big D" and now they're home against an Eagles' team that's pretty much just trying not to get hurt. We'll do the dumb thing here today and go with Philadelphia in a small upset, as the Eagles kick a field goal in OT to win 23-20.
BEST BET OF THE DAY: We'll go with the Patriots (-2.5) at home against Cleveland as today's Best Bet. The Jones-Belichick show is starting to gain some steam.
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 2-3
OVERALL RECORD THIS SEASON: 24-21
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 4-5
| Saturday November 13, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2638 |
saturday stuff
Probably one of the most interesting things about being "involved" in sports -- which, I consider this enterprise to be "involved" -- is observing how people deal with losing.
Nearly everyone deals with winning the same way. You're pretty much just happy your favorite team won and you don't give all that much thought to anything else but that. "We won. Who do we play next?"
But it's not the same when it comes to losing. People react differently. You have a group of Ravens fans, for example, who are ordering super-size versions of doom and gloom after that 22-10 fiasco-of-a-loss in Miami on Thursday night. Those people are virtually incorrigible. They'll look for the worst and beat it into the ground.
You have another group of Ravens fans who think any sort of criticism of the team, players and coaches is taboo. The spectator knowing enough to make a cogent point about the loss to the Dolphins? It's essentially impossible, some folks believe. This group of supporters might actually be more infuriating than the doom-and-gloom club. At least those people have a passion for the sport that they're willing to put on display, unlike the sophisticated fan who basically just believes no one has the right to an opinion about the welfare of the team.
And then you have a group of fans who actually "get it". Every game paints a different story in the NFL. What you did last Sunday pretty much has nothing to do with what happens this Sunday. Injuries matter. Luck matters. How your quarterback slept in the team hotel last night matters. Crowd noise matters. That fight one of the star players had with his girlfriend before he caught the flight matters.
We have all three versions of those fans here at #DMD. Those three versions also exist on social media platforms, media and team websites, and so on. Those three versions are like gin joints in Los Angeles. They. Are. Everywhere.
Someone out in California asked me yesterday, "What happened to the Ravens on Thursday night?" and I took about 20 seconds to craft what I thought was a reasonable reply.
"Nearly every big play in the game either went for Miami or against the Ravens. The game plan looked oddly configured on both sides of the ball, and the head coach even went as far as to throw out a cryptic "we didn't have the team prepared tonight" message at his post-game press conference. And Lamar Jackson, who usually wins the game nearly all by himself, wasn't able to do that on Thursday night. Superman can't rescue everyone in every scene."
And that was really my summary. I thought it was an awful loss, to a bad team, but in the context of the NFL and how the league operates, it's not all that surprising that Miami won. There were four big plays in the game. Here they are. You might notice they all have something in common.
1. The Justin Tucker missed field goal. Even though it would have only been 6-0 at that point, Baltimore would have been a TD away from a 12-0, 13-0 or 14-0 lead. One way to beat a bad team is to get up on them early and pound away. The Tucker miss seemed to take something out of the Ravens.
2. The Mark Andrews catch-that-got-overturned. The Ravens were starting to show some signs of life on that series, but everything fizzled when the catch was oddly overturned by video review.
3. The Sammy Watkins fumble and scoop-and-score that made the score 15-3. At 9-3, it's still anyone's game. At 15-3, the Ravens have to go into hurry-up mode.
4. The 64-yard Dolphins pass play after the Ravens had scored to make it 15-10 in the 4th quarter. That was the back breaker of all back breakers.
What do all four have in common? That's easy. They all went against the Ravens. Miami got the benefit of all four of those things happening in Thursday's game.
One other thing worth asking. Kind of a weird, "there isn't really a right answer" kind of question, but here goes. Do you think Jacoby Brissett would have been able to beat the Ravens on Thursday night? I'm not sure I do. I realize Tua didn't look like Dan Marino when he was in there, but my guess is Brissett would have thrown a pick six or fumbled at the worst possible moment to help the Ravens squeak out a win.
Brissett's injury might have actually hurt the Ravens, in other words. Another thing that went against Baltimore on Thursday.
And I thought Harbaugh's comment about the team not being prepared was definitely intentional and by design. Personally, I think he was taking a subtle jab at both Wink Martindale and Greg Roman. Both sides of the ball looked unprepared. When the head coach stands up after the game and admits, publicly, "we weren't ready to play", that's a telling statement.
Big plays going against you. A couple of officiating calls don't go your way. The good team might have taken the bad team a little more lightly than they'd like to admit.
That's how you lose to the Dolphins.
I did not see very much of last night's U.S. soccer win over Mexico, as I was attending a dinner at a FCA golf tournament in San Diego, but our friend Randy Morgan has all the glorious details in his game summary piece below.
While the win didn't seal the deal for the U.S. in terms of qualifying for next year's World Cup, construction crews are now laying down the asphalt. The road, in other words, is much more smooth for the American side after that critical 2-0 win over El Tri.
The U.S. can almost certify their trip to Qatar for World Cup '22 by beating Jamaica on the road next Tuesday night. Winning down there isn't easy, though. You have to beat the 11 players on the field, the officials, and the people outside of your hotel who dance and yell and bang drums all night while you're trying to sleep. A win in Jamaica is always "well earned".
It was good to see Christian Pulisic back on the field last night, albeit in the role of a substitute. It should come as no surprise, either, that Pulisic was the goal-scorer for the opening American tally of the night. When he's healthy, he's the best U.S. player by far. Last night, even in a limited role, he once proved just how valuable he is to the team's long-term success at the international level.
And if you're an American soccer enthusiast, you have to be happy for head coach Gregg Berhalter this morning. Yes, he's done some wacky stuff with the lineup during this qualifying cycle that started back in September. He apparently has a small cast of favorites from Major League Soccer that he remains connected to despite their various weaknesses. And his in-game tactical maneuvers have also been slow to take shape as well.
But Berhalter signed off on an impressive starting 11 last night vs. Mexico and the result justified the decisions he made with guys like Tim Weah, Miles Robinson, Zack Steffen and Deandre Yedlin. Say what you will about Berhalter -- and he definitely has a significant group of detractors out there -- but the U.S. are rolling along comfortably towards qualifying for World Cup '22 and they've missed arguably their two best players (Pulisic and Gio Reyna) for more than half of their seven games thus far.
dos a cero
"Dos a Cero! Dos a Cero!"
The chant was ringing out in Cincinnati late in the US men's immense 2-0 win over rivals Mexico on Friday night. After several years of Mexican dominance in the regional rivalry, the American fans could gloat once again as the US sealed its third straight victory over its rivals from the south.
The familiar scoreline originated with the memorable 2-0 win over Mexico in the knockout round of the 2002 World Cup and became a battle cry as the US took control of the rivalry in the early 2000s. Once again, in a mostly US partial crowd in Ohio, the team delivered an impressive win by that scoreline. For those newer to this international soccer rivalry, this was the equivalent of beating down the Steelers in the playoffs.
This was the signature win of the Gregg Berhalter era. While the Nations League and Gold Cup final wins over Mexico were great accomplishments, this was a comprehensive win in the highest stakes against the most talented opponent in the region. This is the type of performance that not only gives confidence that the US will qualify for the World Cup, but enables one to envision them making noise once they get there. For the third straight time, they downed their rival and asserted themselves as top dog in the region.
Coach Gregg Berhalter opted for a more veteran lineup in this critical match, choosing Deandre Yedlin to start at right back and Walker Zimmerman at center back. The one spot where he did choose the less experienced player proved crucial, with Tim Weah starting at right wing over Paul Arriola.
The game opened as an end to end affair. As expected, both teams were aggressively pressing high, hoping to force the opponent into mistakes. This meant that every player on each team needed to be at their best and that underscores how much of a team effort this was from the US.
The Americans had the first chance of the game just five minutes in when Tim Weah hit a sharp cross that Ricardo Pepi was just a step behind getting to the end of. Mexico found the next chance, one of the best of the half, when a quick build out from their own end quickly found winger Chucky Lozano in behind the US defense. Deandre Yedlin made a good recovery run to close down the angle and Zack Steffen came up with a big save to deny the Mexican attack.
Mexico threatened again in the 31st minute when Lozano hit a cross that found Tecatito Corona on the back post but the veteran winger scuffed his shot wide of the goal. The US responded well after the Mexican chance, putting pressure on the Mexico end for most of the rest of the half. In the 41st minute a Yunus Musah cross found Antonee Robinson at the back post but his header went wide of the goal. The teams went into the half scoreless after a mostly even first half.
In the second half it was the US that found another gear. A few minutes after the break the Americans created a great chance with a nice passing sequence down the right side. Deandre Yedlin played a great ball into the channel for Tim Weah who cut back into the box for a McKennie shot that was saved by Ochoa. Minutes later, Tim Weah found some space outside the top of the box and hit a shot that deflected to Ricardo Pepi in a good spot, but his shot was mishit over the goal. Just three minutes after that, Weah hit another sharp cross that Brenden Aaronson could quite direct on goal.
In the 68th minute a scuffle ensued after Mexican right back Chaka Rodriguez manhandled Aaronson while he was on the ground, and McKennie and others came to his defense. The ref gave a ridiculous yellow card to McKennie, which will rule him out of the Jamaica game, while Rodriguez escaped with only a yellow, for an offense that could easily have seen him sent off.
The reaction to this is perhaps the defining moment of the Berhalter era. Instead of becoming petulant and getting caught up in a chippy back and forth, the US responded with their best play of the night. Christian Pulisic subbed on for Aaronson and minutes later, delivered the decisive blow of the match. In the 74th minute, after a scrappy effort in midfield to win a second ball, the US found Tim Weah on the right wing where he managed to juke the Mexican left back and deliver a pinpoint cross that Pulisic headed home.
After the goal, Mexico was forced to press for an equalizer, but the US showed no signs of breaking. Buoyed by an exuberant crowd, the US defended well while still looking for their chances to close out the game. In the 85th minute the US found that opening. A cutting ball inside by Tim Weah was dummied by McKennie, who was played into the box by substitute Jesus Ferreira. McKennie gathered and hit a shot to the far post for a goal to seal the victory and give the US the defining scoreline.
This was truly a team effort and there weren't any players for the US that had negative performances. A few stood out among the rest on the night. Tim Weah delivered his best performance for a club or country that I have ever seen him play. After delivering a key goal against Costa Rica, Weah built upon that with an outstanding performance against Mexico. The Lille forward was involved in the majority of the most dangerous US attacking moments, including both goals. With Gio Reyna missing the past few international windows, Weah has proven himself a productive option off the bench for the US.
Zack Steffen was a slightly controversial starter for this critical game, given his lack of playing time at Manchester City and Matt Turner's stellar form for both the US and New England Revolution. Steffen validated Berhalter's decision tonight, coming up with two big saves when called upon and providing outstanding passing from the keeper position all night. While it may seem there is now a controversy at keeper, it's really a good problem that the US have two goalies that are totally reliable for important matches.
One of the players that entered this game on the top of his game was Weston McKennie. The star midfielder brought that form to the team tonight, providing a consistent work rate in midfield and then netting the goal to put the game away. While he was not perfect on the day, he came up big when needed. He will be sorely missed in the Jamaica game, but he reminded everyone why he is a foundational player for this team going forward.
One final player that stood out today was teenager Yunus Musah. At just 18 years old, Musah has seemingly unlimited energy and was all over the field tonight. He consistently worked back to receive the ball in the first half and threw himself into every challenge. While he faded in the second half a bit, he was instrumental in winning balls in the middle of the field and progressing the ball into attack.
Before this game, veteran Mexico keeper Memo Ochoa disrespected the US by saying, "Mexico is the mirror in which the United States wants to see itself." When Christian Pulisic scored the goal to put the US up 1-0 he slyly revealed a shirt that said, "Man in the mirror".
It seems that now it is the US that Mexico must measure itself against. The Americans once again asserted themselves as the top talent in the region while picking up a critical three points for qualifying. The win puts them on top of the eight team group with 14 points, three above Panama in fourth place and eight above Costa Rica in fifth.
The US will travel to face a resurgent Jamaica on Tuesday in Kingston. They will be favored to win against a limited crowd, but the young team will need to maintain its focus in a road qualifier. If they're able to pull off the win in Jamaica, they can all but book their tickets for Qatar. It would be great to get some distance in qualifying so that Berhalter can use the remaining schedule to find his most reliable team. Again, it's important to remember, with the incredible talent the US has on hand, the goal isn't just to qualify, it's to actually advance and compete in the World Cup.
Thursday's night loss to the Dolphins hopefully represented rock bottom for the Ravens. Every deficiency the Ravens have or are perceived to have was on full display. From the lack of a run game to the putrid play of the offensive line, the questionable offensive game plan and play calling, and even the throwing mechanics of Lamar Jackson. It wasn't that just one of those things happened that led to the Ravens loss, but it was the fact that they all happened in one game.
The game reminded me of the Ravens / Jaguars Monday night game from 2011. The Ravens were 4-1 and the far superior team and traveled to Jacksonville. And just like Thursday, the Ravens came out completely flat and lost a very winnable game 12-7.
The question today is similar to what it was 10 years ago after that loss to the Jaguars. How do they respond? Obviously that Ravens team responded well and went on to the AFC Championship game. This team's reaction to the Miami loss remains to be seen.
Now in complete fairness, the odds were stacked against them. They had to travel to Miami on a short week, just four days after playing an overtime game where the offense played over 90 snaps. The offensive was obviously the main issue and that was clear from the jump. So, do we write this as a one off or, as I have been opining for weeks now, is everything finally catching up to them?
Time will answer that question, starting in 10 days when they travel to Chicago, a place where the franchise has never won before. If after 10 days and once again playing a far less superior team, there are not noticeable changes, it may be time to wonder if all the issues they have are far too much to overcome. Or we could see how tough this team is built in 2021.
Additional thoughts on the game --
* Believe it or not, there were two bright spots. Rashod Bateman continues his impressive first month finishing the game with six catches for 80 yards. That brings his four-game total to 18 receptions for 241 yards. A small sample size, but the young man looks like he has a bright future.
* A week after I criticized him, Odafe Oweh registered his first sack since the Colts game. Oweh was extremely active Thursday, as he registered two tackles for a loss as well as three QB hits in addition to the sack. Yes, the Dolphins have the worst offensive line in the NFL, but it was still nice to see Oweh make his presence felt. Hopefully, this was a confidence booster after not showing up on the stat sheet against the Vikings.
Now the bad. Oh where to begin?
* Let's start with the obvious. This offensive line is going to get Jackson killed. Jackson was sacked four more times Thursday and has now been sacked 12 times in the last three games. Ben Powers is not the answer at left guard...the same with Tyree Phillips at tackle. Alejandro Villenueva, for as well as he started off at left tackle, seems to have regressed each week. The only ways to fix the issue are in house. The simplest and probably the best solution is for Patrick Mekari and Ben Cleveland to return from injury and get them inserted into the starting unit at right tackle and left guard respectively. If this current group stays in, then Greg Roman must increase play calls that involve simple three step drops. Quick hitters that get the ball out of Lamar's hand fast enough so the rush cannot get to him. Either way, this is a major issue that must be addressed over the next 10 days. Lamar's health is at stake.
* On the topic of Greg Roman, why were there so many play calls to throw to the wide receiver at or behind the line of scrimmage? Is it because it worked once against the Vikings, we had to run it four times against the Dolphins? The offensive game plan was the worst I have seen this year.
* Speaking of play calling, there was no better option than running Le'Veon Bell on a 2nd and 17? Come on, really? Also, here's my weekly reminder that the Le'Veon Bell experiment needs to end.
* Ty'Son Williams played no snaps? Then why was he active? And you are telling me the coaching staff doesn't think he can do better than Bell?
* As great as Lamar has been all year, his mechanics seem to be reverting back to some poor tendencies. I think he threw the ball more from a side arm angle than anything else. This led to a ton of bad throws. I noticed this also in the Vikings game. It is one thing to throw sidearm if he is avoiding a lineman's hand, but to throw that way on a regular basis is what he did last year. His throwing had improved this year because of his mechanics. Someone needs to get in his ear and get him back on track.
* You knew it would be a bad night when Justin Tucker misses a field goal. But why was he even kicking there? It was 4th and 3 from roughly the Miami 38-yard line. For as much as Harbs has gone for it on 4th down this year, this seemed like a prime spot to do it.
* Sammy Watkins did not look to be 100% back from injury. That was clear on the first drive when it appeared he quit running on the ball Lamar threw into the back of the endzone. I wonder why they would activate him on a short week with 10 days until your next game? Why not give him the extra rest?
* And with Watkins back, that pushed James Proche to the inactive list. Does Proche dress anymore the rest of the year if all the wide receivers are healthy? And what does this mean for his long term plans with the team?
On to next week --
10 days from now at the Bears. The Ravens have to win, right? After 10 days off, things have to improve, right? My gut tells me they do and they right the ship. Though, this could still be a close game and I don't think the Ravens are built to blow teams out anymore. Ravens 24 - Chicago 17
| Friday November 12, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2637 |
so...not a cakewalk after all
Describe it in whatever fashion you want.
"Bad loss." Yep, it was one of those, particularly considering Miami was 2-7 entering last night's game.
"Terrible loss." Sure, I'd go as far as calling it "terrible". I mean, you scored 10 points against the 30th worst defense in the league. That's, by any standard, "terrible.
"Unacceptable loss." Well, I've never quite understood what an "unacceptable loss" is. I mean, the game is over and you lost. You have to accept it and move on to the next game. But I understand the hyperbole behind the phrase. It's worse than a bad loss or a terrible loss, it's just plain and simply "unacceptable" to lose to the Dolphins.
Call it what you will, but no matter your description, every Ravens fans knows the truth. That 22-10 defeat last night was one of the worst defeats of the John Harbaugh era and almost certainly the worst loss of Lamar's 3-plus year career. It was, by any and all accounts, an awful performance across the board.
There will be people who point to the Houdini-aided earlier wins against Kansas City, Detroit, Indianapolis and perhaps even Minnesota and suggest what happened last night was a simple example of market correction. The Ravens were, at some point, not going to be able to pull a rabbit out of their hat in the final few minutes of a game they appeared destined to lose. And there could be some truth to that attempt at logic. Those kinds of games do have a way of evening out over some period of time. You win a few you shouldn't and you lose a few you shouldn't, too.
The overturned Mark Andrews-catch-that-wasn't will also be in the spotlight today and tomorrow as everyone digests what happened. And you know what? That was a turning point, in my mind. How that call (ruled a catch on the field) was overturned is anyone's guess. I think I'm as fair as fair can be when it comes to sifting through calls and breaks and trying to figure out who got jobbed by the officials. There was never an angle presented to the viewing audience last night that showed Andrews failed to catch that pass in the 3rd quarter.
We'll never know what might have happened had the Andrews catch held up under review, but we know what did happen when the call was reversed. The Ravens, trailing 6-3 at the time, went from potentially tying the game at 6-6 or going up 10-6 to trailing 9-3 after Miami got the ball and went down the field for the their third field goal of the game.
That was a catch. Somehow they overturned it. The game changed for the worse at that point.
Greg Roman's offense will undergo a thorough autopsy after last night's venture down Bland Street. The offensive line was terrible, the running attack didn't actually "attack" anything and, let's be honest, Lamar didn't have a great night, either. And the game's biggest play, the Sammy Watkins fumble and scoop and score by the Dolphins to make it 15-3, was also on the offense, although not in a favorable way.
The Baltimore defense wasn't bad. I mean, they weren't the '85 Bears, but they did only permit the Dolphins to score 15 offensive points (3 field goals and 1 touchdown). That said, the Ravens defense also caved in on a 2nd and 10 situation with just over three minutes remaining in the game. A 64 yard pass play that originated out of the backfield and caught the entire Baltimore defense napping was the one that pretty much salted away the game for the Dolphins. That one was all on Wink Martindale and the 11 defensive players. It was amateur hour stuff.
Afterwards, John Harbaugh said something very interesting to the assembled media in Miami.
"We weren't ready to play tonight. That goes on me. I needed to have them ready to play and I didn't get it done, obviously."
Most times when a coach says that, he or she is simply saying it out of obligation to deflect the truth from being discussed. A coach would always prefer to take the blame rather than hearing or reading about Alejandro Villanueva getting routinely beat or Chuck Clark missing a coverage assignment or Patrick Queen failing to fall on a fumbled ball at his feet. The coach would rather just say "We weren't ready and that's on me", even when he knows that might not actually be the truth.
But last night........
I think I'll buy some stock in the coach not having them ready to play. Something looked "off" right from jump street. Yes, of course, the Thursday night games are wonky for the visiting team. You play on Sunday and then you're back on a plane Wednesday afternoon flying to the next game. Routine is important in the NFL and Thursday games are very disruptive to a player's schedule.
But that's why Harbaugh gets the big bucks. It's his job to make sure something like what happened last night doesn't happen, where his team simply isn't taking the game seriously enough against an obviously inferior opponent.
The Ravens weren't ready to play. A lot of folks will blame the players for that since, well, they're all getting paid as professionals to be ready for any and every game. But the coach has to read the room and figure out if his guys are professional enough to handle it on their own or do they need a little friendly reminder from the coaching staff? Last night sure looked like Harbaugh failed to remind his team of the task at hand. The coach accepted the blame, after all. It seems like a reminder never got delivered.
The lack of a quality (or, frankly, even a half-quality) running game is really starting to put wear and tear on Lamar and the offense as a whole. When a lousy defensive team like Miami can give the Ravens fits because they know Baltimore's not going to be able to run the ball effectively, it's time for Greg Roman and his offensive coaches to sit down and come up with some new twists to get Lamar back on track.
Jackson is good, of course. On any given Sunday, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But he can't do it all himself. And from a scheme standpoint, the lack of a running game in Baltimore is just highlighting to every other team in the league that the way to beat the Ravens is by putting pressure on Lamar and trying to keep him in the pocket. Last night, the Dolphins were in the Baltimore backfield more than Le'Veon Bell.
Now........
Let's cut out the gloom and doom.
It was one loss. Nothing more, nothing less. That it represented an opportunity to snag what was previously assumed to be an "automatic "win" is troubling, but it's just one loss. The Ravens are still 6-3. They didn't fall to 4-5 because they lost to the Dolphins. They're 6-3.
And not that Harbaugh needs an excuse to "coach 'em up", but he can now be a little more firm with his coaching disciplines -- if he so chooses -- and has this Miami game in his hip pocket for the rest of the season. "If you don't take the Bears seriously, we won't beat them, just like we didn't take Miami seriously."
Wink Martindale? The heat is on you, too, sir.
Greg Roman? The heat is also on you.
Last night was a shocker, in a variety of ways. The Ravens lost a game to a team they beat 8 out of 10 times, if not 9 out of 10. And in doing so, they might have given a blueprint to opposing defenses over the last 7 games. And by losing to the Dolphins, they also confirmed to everyone that the 2021 version of John Harbaugh's team is as unpredictable as the league itself.
u.s. - mexico set for qualifying clash tonight
Tonight's World Cup qualifying game between the U.S. and Mexico is a big one for both countries. The Mexican side leads the CONCACAF table and the Americans are trying to work their way up the ladder and not make the qualifying process a nailbiter next year.
The game this evening in Cincinnati (9 pm EST) will give goalkeeper Zack Steffen a chance to re-establish himself as the top goalkeeper for the U.S. program. He gets the nod this evening while Matt Turner will likely get the start in Jamaica next Tuesday night.
American head coach Gregg Berhalter said yesterday that Christian Pulisic will not start tonight vs. Mexico. The talented offensive performer has only recently returned to the lineup with his English team, Chelsea, after suffering an injury in mid-September while playing for the U.S. against Honduras. Pulisic will likely get in tonight at some point, but his health and fitness are still very much a question mark.
The game will likely hinge on three things:
1. How well does the U.S. side handle the counter-attacking pace and style of the talented Mexican squad?
2. The ability for the U.S. to capitalize on their free kick and corner kick situations, which were both critical last summer when the U.S. beat Mexico twice in North American-based tournaments. The frenetic pace of the game generally leads to an excessive number of free kicks over 90 minutes, with a handful of those coming in "dangerous areas". The more of those the U.S. can create, the better their chances of converting.
3. Not falling behind, which would help Berhalter strategically use his substitutes to not only overcome Mexico, but also prepare for a big game in Jamaica next Tuesday night. If the U.S. can jump out to a lead and force Mexico to press, that could turn out to be a huge asset for the American coach and his roster of players.
Tonight isn't a "must win" for either team, but as far as the American side goes, they need 4 points out of these two games. A win and three points tonight vs. Mexico would make Tuesday's game at Jamaica a lot less crucial. A loss tonight and Tuesday becomes very, very important.
This one is a little bit of an oldie-but-goodie, as it features Nick Foles sharing his testimony after suffering a major injury with the Jaguars in his first game with Jacksonville a few years ago.
Foles talks about the role God plays in his life and how, even during times of despair, the quarterback turns his trials and tribululations over to his Creator.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment.
| | #DMD GAME DAY | |
| | Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins 8:20 PM EST Hard Rock Stadium Spread: Ravens (-7.5) |  |
cakewalk
There aren't many of these gifts on the NFL schedule each season, so the Ravens better take full advantage of tonight's game in Miami against the Dolphins.
This one should be a walk-in-the-park for John Harbaugh's team.
Now, we know there aren't any style points in the league and a win is a win is a win. If it's 13-10 or 44-10, it counts the same in the standings.
But we also know that the really good teams usually pound the really bad teams. That, of course, didn't happen this past Sunday in Jacksonville when the Bills met the Jaguars, but the Ravens, by every metric available to compute, should bust the Dolphins wide open up tonight. There's nothing Miami does well, if the stats tell the truth. They're 2-7 for a reason. They stink.
The Ravens have played "odd football" in 2021. They've been very good at times, particularly in late-game and overtime situations where their play required the utmost precision. But they've also been behind the eight-ball a lot, mostly a result of a poor half or a handful of big plays that went against them. From 35,000 feet, all you see is the 6-2 record and the first-place seat in the AFC North. A closer examination, though, shows a very fine line between 6-2 and 3-5.
That said, something else stands out about tonight's game: When you look at John Harbaugh's 14-year history in the NFL, the Ravens almost always, always, always win these games against league bottom-feeders.
How much of that is Harbaugh's influence and how much is just a much better team overcoming an inferior team is up for debate, but the reality is Baltimore usually feasts on the kind of team the Dolphins are showing up with tonight. There have been a few toe-stubs along the way since 2008, but they've been few and far between.
And make no mistake about it, a loss tonight in Miami would be one of the worst regular season defeats in the Harbaugh tenure, no matter the final score, no matter the "how it happened" and no matter what influence a late game flag or two has on the result. There's simply no way the way Ravens can afford to lose this game tonight. You have to claim these automatic-win type of games, whether they're home or away.
I suspect the Ravens are well-prepared for tonight. Harbaugh has likely stressed the "business trip" element of this game and has urged the players to plow ahead on a short week, make good, quick work of the Dolphins and return home 7-2 and ready to enjoy a mid-season 10-day break.
No one is taking this one lightly as far as the Ravens are concerned, trust me.
We, the fans, might be taking the Dolphins lightly. I certainly don't see any chance they can win tonight, that's for sure. But I don't think Harbaugh would allow his team to do anything except throw their best punch this evening.
I'm smelling a laugher, basically. It will be 20-7 at the half in favor of Baltimore and the Ravens will roll to a 40-17 victory that probably isn't even that close. I'm not even sure how the Dolphins can score 17 points, but I'll just assume the fourth quarter is an exercise in everyone-trying-to-stay-healthy and Miami scores a late touchdown to "only" lose by 23 points.
That said, I don't really care at all what the final score is as long as the Ravens win the game. If Justin Tucker hits a 50 yarder at the buzzer to give Baltimore a 20-17 win, that's just as good as a 40-17 win. The league is nothing if not totally unrelated to what happened last Sunday or the Sunday before that. The only thing that matters is the result of the next game you play. The score, the stats and how you do it don't really matter that much.
I think the Ravens clobber the Dolphins tonight. It should be a cakewalk. The better team is better by a lot. And that should mean a relatively easy go of it in Miami for John Harbaugh's team.
Yesterday was a special day for high school seniors across the country who are going on to play collegiate sports. Student-athletes formally signed their letter-of-intent with the school they've agreed to join, and most schools both locally and nationally held ceremonies to announce and honor those accomplishments.
Calvert Hall had 14 student-athletes at Wednesday's ceremony, including senior varsity golfer Lorenzo Sanz '22, who has accepted an offer from Loyola University (Maryland) and will play his college golf for a longtime friend of mine (and former CHC grad himself), Chris Baloga. At Loyola, he'll team up with former Calvert Hall player Michael Crowley '20, who was a 3-year standout for me and, like Lorenzo, won the conference tournament as a junior.
Sanz is the defending MIAA individual stroke play champion, an all-conference performer, and would have been a complete 4-year starter for me had Covid-19 not robbed of us of the 2020 campaign.
As it stands, he'll likely finish his career at Calvert Hall next spring by finishing with the highest points-per-match total in my 10-year history. As a freshman, he secured 34.5 points out of a possible 42 points in our 12 regular season matches. That number is staggering from any player, let alone a 9th grader stepping up in class to play against highly talented competition in the MIAA's A-Conference.
The only thing left undone by Sanz is helping the Cardinals win a league championship. We lost to Loyola in the Finals in 2019, but Sanz, true to form, picked up 2.5 of 3 available points in that championship match at Caves Valley. The aforementioned Covid-19 disruption kept us from another expected title run in 2020. And then last season, we fell to eventual champion St. Paul's by one point in a hotly contested and controversial playoff match-up at Baltimore Country Club that included a large number of St. Paul's students showing up at the course and heckling Lorenzo and his CHC playing partner in the latter stages of that semi-final match. It's tough at the top. Sometimes it's so tough the other school sends out extra help to try and beat you.
So another great year of individual performance and that elusive team title is all that's left for Lorenzo in his senior season. I know he thinks about those two things every day, like I do for all of my players.
Lorenzo has been a true blessing to the program. When college coaches call me about any player, one of their very first questions is an obvious one: "What kind of kid is he?" They already know the young man they're calling about can play golf. They can determine that by tournament results, the strength of field he beat, junior golf rankings, etc. What they never know, obviously, is the character of the young man.
"He's a model player, mentor, student and young man," was my standard response whenever a college coach asked me about Lorenzo's character.
I'd like to think Calvert Hall has helped shape Lorenzo into the model young man, student, mentor and golfer that he is, but the reality is he was already in that form when he arrived in the fall of 2018. His parents, Lorenzo and Antoinetta, have been incredibly supportive of Lorenzo and his golfing endeavors. They really laid the groundwork. We just made sure he stayed in the right lane, basically. Lorenzo was always going to be a collegiate golfer, as long as his high school coach didn't do something to foul him up along the way!
There are times when players learn a lot from coaches. There are also times where the coaches learn from the players, if they're willing to allow that to happen. A good coach should always be learning, no matter how, why or from whom. I've watched Lorenzo work and improve and compete over the last three-plus years and have absorbed it all in such a way that I think it's helped me learn more about coaching and more about my own golf game.
I've seen very few high school athletes, in any sport, work at their craft the way this young man works at his golf game. It's tireless and impressive. There's nothing he can't accomplish in golf. First things first, we need that A-Conference title at Calvert Hall next spring. And then he's off to Loyola to do great things for the Greyhounds. And then.......who knows where golf will take him?
One thing I know for certain: Today is not the last time you will read about a young Baltimore golfer named Lorenzo Sanz. His future in golf is bright.
It's been a privilege to coach that young man.
This week's column will be a break from my series on the impact of analytics in sport. But only for a week. It's somewhat analytics oriented as the experiences I describe inform my interest in data and statistics generally.
I hope you find this column interesting or at least eye opening in some way. It's a long column so I'm warning you in advance. If there is good reception to this, I'm happy to dive into specifics or poker related stories (of which I have MANY).
Poker
With the start of the World Series of Poker Main Event (WSOP) last week, I was reminiscing with a friend about when I was a fixture at the event each year. Before COVID, the WSOP was held each summer from roughly the end of May through the second week of July. I think many know that it is not a singular event; rather a series of events over the 6-ish weeks...a festival of poker so to speak.
The tournaments are held at the Rio but competing casinos offer competing series at differing buy-in levels all over the Strip. It is a wild time to be in Vegas and I have seen some things I can't describe on a public forum like this. After years of rumors, the WSOP is scheduled to move onto the strip next year.
But what does that have to do with analytics you may ask? Well a good bit actually. But I'll come back to this question at the end.
The development and growth of poker has coincided with the increased availability of data and statistical metrics across all of society. And just like other "industries", the players that have adapted their play style to the increased availability of data and knowledge are the players that have lasted in the games. In some ways, I don't even recognize the game in 2021 versus what I played for all those years (at least at the highest levels).
Because of the influx of cash and chance at riches, smarter and more analytically savvy players have entered the poker world. The games are tougher and the weak players are at a bigger disadvantage than they likely realize.
My Introduction
Poker has been played for nearly 200 years. Initially played in the dusty saloons of New Orleans and along the Mississippi River the game evolved to be played in basements, college dorms and kitchen tables. Most that started playing did so for insignificant amounts of money; perhaps a night out with the boys and a beer or three.
But around the turn of this century, the introduction of "hole cams" changed everything. Suddenly viewers could see player's cards, watch them make moves, see trainwreck bluff attempts or trap unsuspecting fish. Seemingly overnight it was everywhere. Coupled with endless reruns of the movie Rounders, poker was present in a big way.
This is about when I was pulled into the vortex. Around 2004, a buddy started having games once every other week or so. None of us had any clue what we were doing but no one could get hurt too bad. A bad night would mean maybe $50-75 less in your pocket. We certainly didn't want to beat up on each other.
Pretty soon I recognized that I had an aptitude for the game. I intuitively had some semblance of the odds in a hand, the strength of certain hands and that aggression was generally better than passivity. Honestly if you understood what hand beat what, you were ahead of the field in the early days. I started winning consistently.
Internet Poker
A friend who had caught the poker bug like me, recommended I start playing online. At this point (maybe 2005), online poker was quite literally the wild wild west. Deposits were hard to get on the sites, there was a question about the legality of playing and we weren't sure everything was on the up and up. But the games were quite good. People simply had no idea what they were doing. There were no resources or teaching sites to learn from at this point, you literally had to figure it out on your own. Even the books that were available, like Doyle Brunson's Super System, were antiquated strategies written in far different times.
The ability to play a TON of hands in a short amount of time just decreased the length of my learning curve. It was "get better fast or go broke." In my opinion, the absence of an online poker playing option in the US is a massive issue for a young player that wants to hone his or her game now.
Live vs Internet
As internet players started playing more live poker, a bit of a rift grew. Internet players were generally younger and more aggressive and live players were (and still are) more passive and often older. Internet players turned their noses up at the lower skill level of live players and live players thought the internet players were young, wild punks about to blow off their stacks at any time (both were somewhat right initially).
The gulf was huge between the more technically proficient internet players and the more patient and methodical live players. I was more or less an internet player.
The differences in the sets of players mirrors the current differences between old schoolers in sports and the young analytics crowd in sports. Even the language was the same. "Computer poker isn't real" the old timers claimed. "Live players have terrible fundamentals for the modern game" the youngsters stated. If you watch Moneyball, the tension between the grizzled old scouts and the young computer analysts directly mirrored the tension between the two poker player pools.
The Transition was Slow (until it wasn't)
Initially, internet players did struggle transitioning to live play. They were impatient. At my peak I was playing 8-10 tables at a time online. I might see 450-500 hands an hour online. Live you are lucky to get 25-30 hands an hour. Downswings that could last a few days or weeks online, could last months and months live just because of the slow nature of the game.
But at the end of the day, live players that didn't improve their play were sitting ducks. They WERE inferior technically to internet players. There simply is no substitute to playing 25k+ hands per month, every month. You fairly quickly see it all, recognize patterns, understand variance (HUGE) and hone your skills away from the tables. By this time (2007-ish) there were websites where we could share interesting hands or even pay for coaching. Months and years of learning and developing could be absorbed in mere weeks.
Internet players started winning live tournaments more frequently. They often did it playing fearlessly aggressive poker that was often difficult to combat. There seemed to be a crop of new young players arriving to high level tournaments every year. For sure, some of them still couldn't adjust to the slow pace of live poker. But the good and smart ones did and started crushing.
My Story
I continued to improve and had developed a group of like minded friends that I could share things with. We helped each other improve. I wasn't a crusher by any means but I was a consistent winner at lower and middle stakes.
If a Rounders reference helps, I was Joey Knish (played by the GREAT John Turturro). I was never going to plop $10k on the table and play Teddy KGB heads up. Rather, I was content beating up on lesser players and making a solid, if unflashy, win rate. I wasn't interested in playing for a living but I made a few mortgage payments and paid for a few pretty damn nice vacations along the way.
I was an internet player, no doubt. I enjoyed playing in my home with my wife and kids sleeping in the other room. Whenever I felt like dialing up the sites, I could jump in a game. Didn't have to get in a car, wait for a table or sit next to unpleasant or stinky (or worse) degenerates.
When I did play live, I understood the odds better than most at the tables, I could piece together illogical play better than most opponents and generally had a stronger fundamental skill set than others I played with. I played in a few regular local live home games but if you asked them I was unquestionably an internet player in style. If I could keep myself patient, I was the best player in most lineups (most of my opponents would agree I think). Admittedly, patience was sometimes hard to maintain for 4, 6 or 8+ hours.
Vegas Baby, Vegas
Eventually, I scratched together a decent bankroll and decided to take a shot at the WSOP in 2008. I decided not to play the Main Event given it's $10k buy in. I felt for a first trip, I'd rather play a few smaller events and soak up the experience. So I played a few $1,500 WSOP events (the lowest at the time) and a few $600 and $1ks at The Venetian. I did sell off part of my action since I really didn't know what I was walking into (FYI most of the pros you see on TV have either sold some of their action or done swaps with friends. They almost never own 100% of their own action).
I went out for a bit longer than a week. I played everything: cash games, big tournaments, single table Sit-N-Go's (small 1 table tournaments) and loved it. In hindsight, I was still pretty green but I did manage one decent cash in a $1,500 where I finished ~50th out of maybe 800 players. I finished in the black for the week by a few hundred dollars even after accounting for expenses and paying out my stakeholders. For a first trip, that seemed like a win.
I continued to play more and more live tournaments and had multiple good sized cashes including roughly 10 5 figure scores (live and internet combined). But I always viewed myself as an internet player who happened to play some live.
I thought like an internet player, I approached hands and situations like an internet player. I could be "hold on to your hats" aggressive or I could be methodically patient. I maintained a database with millions of on-line hands that I could sort and search through to identify positive and negative patterns.
I could tease out aggressiveness on the flop vs. aggressiveness on the river to see which yielded better results. I could see patterns at times where I was running bad and losing. I had a coach that I would give access to my hand database and he would say "Dude, wtf were you thinking here?" Reviewing all of this data just added to my continued improvement.
But most of all it was fun and I was making more money each year. In hindsight, my opponents were still fairly bad and I was just maybe "less bad". But in the late 00's and early '10's less bad was plenty. If you had an analytical or critical mind at all you could consistently win in most lineups.
Not every night, mind you. Variance is a real thing and can be an absolute bitch in live poker. You can sit there all night waiting to bust some drunken fish. Suddenly you get KK and get in a raising war with the fish. Inexplicably, THIS time he has AA. And so 80% of the time you lose your stack to this guy that can barely spell poker. But you shrug and watch as he dusts off his new found stack of your former chips to all the other fish at the table. Part of the game. If you can't handle losing sometimes in excruciatingly, unreal spots...poker simply isn't going to be for you.
Black Friday
Everything was going great. I was winning consistently and getting better and better. And then "Black Friday" happened. On April 15, 2011, the Feds issued indictments on the 3 largest US facing websites: PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker. By this point I had a 5 figure bankroll spread across the three sites (95% of it on the first two) and that money was frozen. I had reward/loyalty points (similar to airline miles) on the sites worth roughly another $5k and that morning it was gone. Poof. The first few days were pretty rough. There were rumors flying around on social media. We weren't sure when, or even if, the funds would be unfrozen.
Fortunately, less than 2 weeks later the funds on Poker Stars were released. Man what a relief that was. Most of my play and thus, my bankroll, was on Stars. I had 5 figures on that site alone. The Full Tilt funds weren't released for 3 long years. I had a few thousand on Tilt and only a few hundred on Absolute. Some guys had 6 figure bankrolls on Full Tilt. That was locked up for 3 years and for long stretches of time we had no clue if/when the funds would be returned to us. Absolute funds were never returned. Those balances simply disappeared. I was lucky.
But now where was I going to play? After some time to reflect, I decided to turn my attention to live play almost exclusively. I had a list of various home games that I could play in; enough that I could play multiple times per week. But I had pangs of guilt playing in a lot of these games. Many of the players were my friends or friends of friends. Some of the games included very green players that were the marks. It just didn't feel right. So I started to frequent casinos. Somehow playing against strangers felt less problematic to me.
My memory with specific dates is a little hazy but I started going to Delaware Park and then Charlestown, WV at some point in 2011 or 2012. Both were about 60-75 minutes away so it wasn't too terrible. I vividly remember being in Delaware Park the day of the Ravens' victory in the Mile High Miracle in January 2013. The place went bananas. Live poker was relatively easy though slow and inconvenient as compared to internet play.
Eventually some really sketchy sites like Lock Poker started to offer internet play again in the US. The legality was HIGHLY questionable but I figured worst comes to worst I'd lose whatever funds I had on the site. So I decided to keep balances on those sites to an absolute minimum. Anytime I won anything material, I would set about drawing it down as quickly as the withdrawal rules permitted. This wasn't ideal since my play style often resulted in some pretty sizable swings of the bankroll. Keeping no more than ~$1k on the site meant the risk of busting that roll was fairly easy.
The site was so sketchy that withdrawals were limited to something like $500 at a time and deposits had to be made by jumping through these crazy hoops. We had to purchase some sort of special prepaid credit cards that were only sold at check cashing places and the like. Then sometimes those prepaid cards wouldn't even "go through" when trying to deposit.
Alternatively, we could Western Union funds to some random person in the Philippines or Nicaragua who would then deposit the funds into their account and transfer into your account less a "convenience fee". This wasn't sustainable, of course, and fortunately, I was able to avoid having to make deposits after an initial 2 or 3 times.
The games weren't really all that good and getting funds off the sites became increasingly problematic. In the end, I decided that the site just wasn't worth the issues and felt like the risk was no longer worth the return. I managed to sell my account balance for something like .75 on the dollar and just did that to close the chapter on sketchy online poker sites. There were other small sites offering US play but it just didn't seem worth it to me any longer. In the end, those sketchy sites faced liquidity issues and the games went away with some players losing whatever funds they had on site.
Poker and Bitcoin
I continued to go to Vegas every summer for the WSOP. I always went alone but had a bunch of friends from across the world whose trips overlapped with mine. I fell into a pretty good routine, staying on the Strip, generally at The Wynn or Venetian.
Then I split my time between those casino poker rooms and the zoo at the Rio. It was more expensive than just staying at the Rio for the entirety of the trip but the Rio was so soul crushing that I just couldn't stay there. Rooms were often dirty, food options were awful and the place attracts a rather…let's say "rough" crowd. Hookers, thugs, drug dealers...you name it they were present at the Rio. Everytime I stayed there I regretted my decision basically immediately on arrival.
On one of these WSOP trips a buddy of mine said "let's go meet this dude." "As it turned out, "this dude" was an online poker legend that was representing an internet poker site using the block chain. This is probably 2012 or 2013. All transactions on the site were paid via Bitcoin converted from USD and deposited in an on-line wallet. Now remember, this is pretty early in the crypto timeline. My recollection is that Bitcoin was trading at $10-12. Their angle was that even if the US Government shut down the site, all of the Bitcoin was housed on the blockchain, theoretically out of reach of the Feds.
I'm a reasonably smart guy. I work tangentially in finance. I had heard of crypto but not investigated it much. I literally left this meeting, turned to my buddy and said "This guy is legit out of his f---ing mind". "What is he talking about with these digital coins and blockchain and the rest?"
He wanted us to deposit like $1k, convert that into 100 Bitcoin or whatever it converted to and play with that. Oh and if we played XX number of hands, over a few months, the site would GIVE us a bonus, in bitcoin, equal to our deposit amounts. This guy had purchased something like $50k in bitcoin several years earlier. Totally guessing but he probably owned 15-20k bitcoin. I have no actual idea, just my best guess based on the conversation.
Needless to say, we laughed at this guy as we walked away. The dude reeked of pot and looked and talked like an internet meme of a millennial conspiracy theorist. There was zero chance Stats Nerd was trusting his hard earned money with this joker. So I politely declined, deleted the guy from my contacts and went about my life. Fast forward to today and Bitcoin is trading at (checks the internet) OVER $60k!! WHAT IN THE ACTUAL F&*! WHY DIDN'T ANYONE TELL ME??? Haha the reality is I never would have held those coins this long anyway but it makes for a good what if.
All Live Play
At this point, online play was no longer an option. Fortunately, in late summer 2013 MD Live Casino opened it's poker room. MD Live was the best of the Mid-Atlantic casinos and with 52 tables the room was equally capable of hosting major tournament series and normal, everyday cash game play. It became my regular playing spot. I was playing 2-3 evenings per week. I was playing fewer and fewer tournaments, however, as they don't make a ton of sense from a return perspective. Cash games are where the consistent, solid returns are made.
Somewhere around 2015, I stopped playing in the home games that had started this whole journey. The group had expanded to include a lot of people I didn't really know and, frankly, if I was going to play it made a lot more sense to play in the bigger games at MD Live and, later and to a lesser extent, Baltimore Horseshoe.
But playing a lot in casinos can be a bit depressing, at least for me. Poker, and casinos more generally, attract a lot of degenerate gamblers. Many of them are slowly self destructing and trying to scratch an unscratchable gambling itch. It's quite sad and it's hard not to have a lot of empathy for those affected.
Interestingly, good poker players typically don't view the game as gambling. Sure it has elements of gambling and luck in it but over a large sample of hands, the better, more skilled players will almost always rise to the top. The key is being smart with your bankroll so that the good players don't flame out and go broke before the long term is realized. In a very real sense, bankroll or money management is just as important a skill to have as reading your opponents or value betting weaker players (perhaps more important honestly).
Finally, somewhere around late 2016 or early 2017, I realized I was burned out. My last year at WSOP was 2016. Being in a casino with some less than desirables was starting to wear on me. Also, being up late but still having to go to work the next day was taking a toll. It's hard to maintain a good life balance with sleep, diet and exercise when you are up 2 nights a week until 3 or 4 in the morning. At least it was for me. I looked at some of the regulars that were older than me and none of them looked very healthy.
I also wasn't playing as well as I just didn't want to be there. My nerves were frazzled and every little thing could set me off. Not a good state of mind when playing for real money.
While I wasn't making anywhere the amount of money playing cards that I do in my real job, I had gotten used to always having extra cash lying around (and more importantly so had my wife!). Not having that extra cash if I stopped playing would be a bit of an adjustment. But I finally decided I was going to stop. I had other things I wanted to do that required more time, mental energy and better physical condition. So I stopped. Didn't play for a close to a year. And surprisingly, I didn't really miss it or the extra cash too much.
I still play on occasion. A friend will call and ask if I want to go for a night or I just have nothing better to do for an evening. I have a lot of friends that still play a lot. They will frequently text me cryptic messages like "Hey you got a minute for a call?" That usually means they want my advice on how they played a certain hand or want reassurance that their bustout hands in a big tournament were reasonable.
I'm always happy to give friends my thoughts although they know my rule: NO BADBEAT STORIES! I don't want to hear you complain about how unlucky you got or bitch about some drunken moron who kept catching the perfect card against you. I've seen it all, had it happen to me; basically been there done that. I don't need to listen to the negativity. I get it...it sucks but anyone that plays any length of time knows the drill. You will lose some pots in the most ridiculous, hard to believe, preposterously unimaginable ways...and lo and behold it will happen again a week later.
Poker and Analytics
So back to the original question I posed: What does all of this have to do with sports and analytics? Well poker illustrated to me a lot of statistical theories and concepts I'd previously only understood academically. While I could discuss these things with people before diving into poker, that knowledge couldn't compare to living it through my poker results.
I've long thought that high school students should be required to take a course in statistics and probabilities even at the expense of other math classes like trigonometry or calculus. The logic and certainty of numbers just makes sense to me. But that isn't the case for most people in my experience. Even players that I run into that have been playing for a LONG time still really have no clue about things like distributions, odds, randomness, etc. It's hard to believe but I talk to friends that just can't quite figure it out. Their mindsight is; I won money so I must have played well or I lost money so I must have played poorly. Results oriented thinking in the extreme.
Obviously, poker is a heavily math based and statistic oriented game (at least at a higher level). Certain hands have better odds than others. Good poker players develop an instinct about the odds the hand is offering versus the odds the pot is offering. The players that leverage the difference in those two odds are the players that will be the consistent winners. Simple as that.
But beyond the basic math of poker there are conceptual things that poker helped frame up for me. For example, the idea that basically everything you do has a range of possible outcomes. It's easy to say that and to accept that as fact but when you see millions and millions of poker hands you realize that there really is ALWAYS A RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. Always. This is true of getting in your car and driving to work or sitting down to watch the Ravens play. Some outcomes are more likely than others but see enough hands and that range of outcomes will show itself to you.
Poker also helped me appreciate the value in large samples being a better indicator of statistical confidence than smaller samples. Anyone can beat anyone in a single poker hand. But gradually, as the sample size grows the better player reveals themself. Of course in sports sample size is huge whether it is a Tour player's winrate, a batter's average or a shooter's field goal percentage. The mind has a way of remembering recent small samples at the expense of larger and longer term samples. That kind of explains the phenomenon known as recency bias.
The last item I'll hit on is that poker really helped me appreciate the role that luck and randomness have in life. In poker, one hand might beat another hand 80% of the time. That is true whether you are playing in your buddies basement for $20 or at the final table of a big tournament. But the randomness of WHEN that occurs is pretty important. If a player gets KK and runs into AA in a home game and busts he likely says something like "what can I do? that's poker". But if it happens at the final table with 5 players left vying for big $$ that bad luck can materially change your expectations. Generally, the same situation with the same outcome probabilities but FAR different $$ expectations.
I find that people are a little unwilling to accept that luck and randomness are as much a part of life as I believe it is. This isn't to say that it accounts for everything in life. Far from it. But there is no question in my mind that opportunities will present themselves in life where some luck or randomness materially alters one's future. I think about my life and business and can point to luck and random calls or connections that I've made that considerably changed the course of my life. I met my wife at a random time when neither of us were attached. That fairly random meeting certainly changed my life trajectory considerably. I can point to 5 or 6 specific spots in my life where a little luck was helpful and MATERIALLY impacted my future.
I could go on and on but I think I've gone on long enough. Poker was a large part of my life and, to some extent, my identity for almost a decade. I was the guy my friends called to discuss anything poker related. I was the guy that my non-poker friends wanted to hear poker stories from. They asked if I had met Phil Hellmuth (I have) or Daniel Negraneau (I have not). It had some pluses and some minusses but there is no question that it framed a lot of the way I think about distributions and randomness. I suspect that will be a little more clear after reading this column.
| Wednesday November 10, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2635 |
fixed? no. but...
You may or may not be a fan of ex-ESPN staffer Bill Simmons. I honestly haven't listened to much of his work over the last decade. Not because I don't think he's good at what he does. It's mostly because he spent -- when I did listen in -- most of his time talking about the NBA. And that's just not my thing.
But Simmons occasionally delves into other sports topics these days, apparently, because I stumbled on an interesting Tweet of his on Tuesday.
Speaking about Monday's Steelers/Bears game, Simmons authored this:
@BillSimmons - Fast-forward 5 years: "Let's go to Adam Schefter, who has more details about the Bears-Steelers game that was fixed by gamblers in 2021..."
I read that and thought to myself: "Eh, I mean, it seems really far fetched. But maybe not. I mean, that night did look a little suspect."
Simmons got raked over the coals with all of the obvious replies.
"Come on, the Bears wound up covering even though they're the ones who got shafted by the refs. There was no fix."
(That one is definitely the most legit argument against "the fix was in". I mean, what, exactly was fixed? The team that got hammered with the questionable penalties still covered the 6.5 point spread. Now, had they not covered...)
"How can you fix a game? You know how many people would have to be in on it in order to pull that off without everyone seeing it happen?
(Eh, I don't know that I believe that in totality, but it's a fair point. I do think a few players and a few refs could potentially pull it off, but it would certainly be difficult to do. Now, could the referee group, as a whole, conspire to change the outcome or impact the point spread? That's a "yes", without question.)
"What's in it for the NFL to fix a game? This is a stupid take."
(Well, for starters, Simmons' tweet didn't suggest the NFL fixed the game on Monday. He's wondering if "gamblers" didn't have a hand in fixing the game. And that is, of course, a much different question than whether the NFL fixed it. I do think we're all naive if we don't think the NFL would "prefer" certain teams win and make the playoffs; New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh -- those three come to mind right away, not just because of their television appeal, but those three also sell a lot of merchandise across the country, which is a major appeal-factor to the league. Anyway, I think there's always a reason to fix a game or a point spread if you think long enough and hard enough about it. But that's not the point in this situation. I'm willing to concede the NFL itself didn't care one way or the other about Monday's game.)
Where the NFL has helped create this picture of being nefarious is simple: At every turn now, all you see are gambling-related ads, whether you're in the stadium or watching the game on television. Insurance ads still lead the way, but those gambling ads are running a real close second. I guess the margins in insurance tell that story, but I digress.
I'm not here to say the games in the NFL are, in fact, "fixed". I have friends who definitely think they are fixed, by the way. But I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory.
But I will say this...
The league should do a better job, somehow, of convincing people that the games are on the up and up. Because, let's be honest, a lot of the other stuff they're doing might suggest otherwise.
I mean, you're directly involved with gambling businesses and websites who all rake in millions and millions of dollars and you don't want a piece of that, in some small way? Really? You don't? OK, if you say so.
But those ads in stadiums and in radio and TV broadcasts suggest the NFL actually might be interested. Interested, at the very least, in the success of those particular wagering companies. Because if they keep raking in millions, they can pay the NFL millions and millions for those TV advertising campaigns on Sunday and Monday.
We've all heard of the Alford Plea: "I'm not willing to admit guilt, but I am willing to admit the evidence in place would find me guilty."
I'm not saying the NFL should cop the Alford Plea just because of what we saw on Monday night in Pittsburgh. I don't think we've reached that point yet.
But I do think we are at a point, of some kind. We're at a point where a referee is very obviously creating contact with a player after a fairly lame "taunting call" and we're supposed to just ignore that and say "nothing to see here"?
We're at a point where teams are aligning with casinos and sports betting websites and expecting us to just assume nothing is going on there that might be considered "inappropriate" or "suspect".
And, for the most part, it's probably fair to not look at the NFL with a suspicious eye. I mean, if the league really did have an interest in a team winning games, would they really let the poor Lions languish like they do? But when you see some of the stuff -- not all of it, but some of it -- that happened on Monday night, it's certainly worth at least wondering about the validity of it all.
It's also fair to point out that Monday night was not a one-off occasion. It was just a Monday night, national television tipping point. There are games every week impacted by officiating calls -- in every sport. The NFL, it seems, has a "rules implication" problem more than a "are the games fixed?" problem. That's my take, anyway. I just think the officials stink, more than anything else.
But I will also admit this: It's like the straw that broke the camel's back story. Eventually, there's one moment, one weird outcome, one odd finish, where you just say: "OK, I've seen enough. You people aren't fooling me any longer."
For some people, Monday night in Pittsburgh might have been their final straw.
And when you watch it again -- it's hard to argue with them.
Fixed? No. But...
This could be a topic for a lede story or a more thorough examination, but the question is worth asking no matter the day at this point:
Is Lamar worthy of the $400-$500 million deal that most industry experts believe/assume the Ravens are going to have to give him at the end of this season?
I think the easy answer to that question is: yes.
But I'm not sure that's going to be the overwhelming answer in Baltimore, despite the fact the team's record with Lamar is 36-10 since he inherited the starting job midway through the 2018 campaign. I mean, all they've done with Lamar is win. Sure, they've won with more consistency in the regular season than the post season, but let's also remember when you're in the playoffs, everyone can basically beat everyone on any given Saturday or Sunday.
You just can't argue that Lamar has turned the Ravens around. They were 40-40 in the 80 games (mostly with Flacco) before Lamar took over. They're 36-10 since. You can argue against that point if you so choose, but you better bring an army to help you win that debate.
Hold the phone, though. Are those long-term "legacy contracts" really beneficial to the teams that hand them out? History might say "no" on that one. In the "legacy contract" era, you can honestly say that only Brady and the two Mannings were able to win Super Bowls after they landed their mega-deal (or two). Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl in his first-year after a mega-deal with Green Bay, but it's fair to remember his cap hit in that first year was extraordinarily low.
Flacco, of course, won his Super Bowl prior to signing the big contract in Baltimore.
Matt Ryan could have joined that small list of four a few years ago but the Falcons couldn't hold on to a 28-3 lead.
Russell Wilson's big contract came after he engineered the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win.
Lamar detractors might say, "If he hasn't already won one, are the chances better or worse that he'll do it after he cashes in on the legacy-mega contract?" And that really is the argument point right there.
It's not really a discussion about Lamar's value. It's more a discussion about how Lamar's value impacts the contract he receives and how that, in turn, cramps the team's salary cap for the next 5-10 years. It is, more than anything, a salary cap issue. It's not a "should the Ravens reward Lamar?" issue.
I think most people in Baltimore see and appreciate what Lamar is and does for the Ravens. I know I do, for sure. He's a winner, plain and simple, as I said here earlier this week. But he's not the only QB in the league who is largely responsible for his team's success. If you list, in your mind, the top 5 in the league, all 5 of them are "mostly" responsible for their team's success. Just off the top of my head, in no order: Brady, Rodgers, Allen, Mahomes and Prescott (in addition to Lamar). Those five are 80% of the reason why their team wins most of their games.
So it's not like Lamar is the only great quarterback in the league. But for a franchise so quarterback-starved for so long, the Flacco-Jackson era has been a huge relief. And Lamar, for varying reasons, is far more valuable to the Ravens than Flacco ever was. Some of that is built on the way Lamar plays and some of it is built on the way the Ravens have decided to organize their offense around Jackson. Either way, though, Jackson deserves the same kind of status as Flacco, if not more. He has to get paid. It's really that simple.
But paying Jackson $500 million might be the only thing the team can do and, at the same time, it might the one thing they do that hampers them moving forward.
History says the Ravens are going to pay him a boatload of money in the off-season. And history also says, doing that and having their star quarterback locked up for five to ten years might not yield the expected and necessary results.
ravens-vikings recap
It's never easy, it's almost certainly never pretty and sometimes it is just downright ugly, but the Baltimore Ravens sit at 6-2 after Sunday's 34-31 OT win over Minnesota.
And they sit at 6-2 with maybe more issues than any other team in the league. Yet, somehow, they seemingly find a way to win. And Sunday was no exception, as for the third time this season they overcame a second half double digit deficit. This was also their third overtime game of the year, which has become almost the norm for them in 2021.
Despite all of the injuries, the issues on defense, the lack of a consistent run game, the slow starts that lead to double digit deficits and the fact that almost every game comes down to the last possession or overtime, the Ravens lead the AFC North and currently hold the number two seed in the AFC.
Yet after every game, the same two thoughts always pop into my head: How good would this team be if not for all the injuries and could they overcome all of those issues, which seems improbable, and make a deep run in January and February?
The first question just can't be answered. Simply because there is no do-over in life and we can't go back to August and September to prevent the injuries to Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, etc. But the second question can and will be answered over the next 10 weeks or so. Does the team have the will to overcome all their issues and use it as motivation to keep grinding through the season all the way to the Super Bowl? I am beginning to think the answer is "yes".
The 2021 version of the Ravens almost seem to embrace all of these challenges placed in front of them unlike any other team before. The next challenge that lays in front of them is a trip to Miami on a short week after playing an overtime game. The Ravens are tired, beat up and traveling, which would lead many to think they don't have a chance. And in any other year, I would probably agree. However, in 2021 this is just another day at the office for them.
Key thoughts on the Vikings game --
* While the sluggish starts on defense and more so on offensive have become expected, I was shocked they came out that way on Sunday. Generally, after the bye, John Harbaugh has his team amped up and revving to go. It almost seemed as if they were still in bye week mode during the first half of the game. Though they seem to overcome whatever is put in front of them, slow starts will eventually bite them against a good team. I am sure this is being addressed by the coaches, but why hasn't it changed?
* After watching Justin Jefferson score on a 50-yard touchdown midway through the first quarter against Marlon Humphrey, I thought, 'Here we go again'. But after seeing the replay, it is clear the blown coverage looked more on Chuck Clark as he was the deep safety. You could see that Humphrey thought he had help on the back end. Clark was late getting over and Jefferson just outran everyone.
* You have to wonder why the Vikings didn't take more deep shots and try to attack down the field after that?
* Kudos go out to Humphrey. A game after allowing over 200 yards, Humphrey responded well vs. Minnesota. After the aforementioned TD by Jefferson, Humphrey allowed just one completion and had two pass break-ups on key third down plays. They really need him to revert back to his 2020 form to close out the season.
* Ever since Josh Bynes has stepped into the starting role, Patrick Queen's game has improved each week. The eight-yard tackle for loss he had on Dalvin Cook is the play I am sure the Ravens have been envisioning him making since they drafted him. Maybe, with Bynes there, Queen has less pressure on him to make sure that all of the other 10 guys are lined up correctly and can focus just on his job.
* I wouldn't get too excited over the emergence of the run game against the Vikings. They are a bottom ten team in the league against the run, and they were missing two starting defensive lineman as well as a safety who plays the run pretty well. And it seems like once a month (Chiefs in September, Chargers in October) the Ravens have success against a poor rush defense team and we as fans think the run game is back.
* I don't expect Latvaius Murray to return this week against the Dolphins but I wonder who is the odd man out when he returns? Devonta Freeman seems to have been the lead back since Murray went down. Le'Veon Bell had his best game Sunday and Ty'Son Williams, who played 18 offensive snaps, didn't touch the ball. Would the Ravens carry four running backs on their active roster? Would they keep Bell over Williams? Or do the Ravens just get all they can out of Bell while Murray is out and release him in favor of the younger Williams? I really hope that is the way they are leaning.
* The presence of Rashod Bateman is an aspect of the Ravens passing game we have never seen before. His field awareness to always know where the first down markers are, the way he high points a ball, which was on display while drawing the Ravens their first pass interference call of the year, and the fact he seems to catch everything thrown his way. It has been a small sample size, but the Ravens may finally have their first true home grown number one wide receiver.
* Speaking of rookies, has anyone seen Odafe Oweh since his first half sack of Carson Wentz on October 11? I was extremely high on Oweh early, but where has he been the past three weeks? I am not saying it is all his fault and most of it is probably scheme related. But when a team is not generating sacks and you draft an edge rusher in the first round to get sacks, I would like to see him do that more than once a month.
* Pat Ricard had the drive of his life catching three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. Do I think we will see that level of quality from him going forward? Not at all. But what that drive did do, is make the opposing defense know he can be a threat and they need to account for him in the passing game.
* I could dedicate most of this column every week to the wonders of what Lamar does to carry this team. But that would get boring. He had his usual MVP day on Sunday and was the reason why they won. Not much else to say, but want to at least acknowledge it. Are we getting complacent in watching him? And maybe taking it for granted?
* As great as Jackson has played all year, one area that I would like to see him approve on is his throws on short passes. I notice it mostly on check downs or quick three to four yard passes when he is under pressure, but some of those throws are wild. And they could be easy completions for a few yards, but he seems to miss on most of them.
* As for the interception he threw in overtime...a couple of things to point out. One, Anthony Barr just made an absolute amazing play to deflect and then intercept the pass. Two, it was clear Barr was rushing, which means Freeman needed to attack him and not wait back for Barr to engage, which allowed the Minnesota player to jump and tip the ball. Third, Jackson needs to eat that throw or run with the ball. That could have been a crucial mistake that ended up costing them the game. And it could have been avoided if some simple things were done the right way.
* And what would a Ravens game be without another significant injury? This time it is DeShon Elliott. Early this year, I opined that maybe the Ravens would look to extend him after the season. Those odds aren't looking good. This is the third time in four years he has had his season ended by injury. It looks like Brandon Stephens will be the next man up and take his spot. I would assume if Stephens does well, then there would be no need for Elliott next season. Though coming off an injury, the Ravens could extend him a one-year deal for depth purposes. Here is to hoping the young man can overcome yet another injury and move on.
On to this week's game: At the Dolphins on Thursday night. As I said earlier, everything about this game should say the Ravens lose, but they don't. The Dolphins are a hot mess. They have no clue which QB is playing and they have regressed tremendously this year. The good news is you can probably go to bed early because this game shouldn't be close. Ravens 31-Dolphins 17.
| Tuesday November 9, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2634 |
these refs...and the iron man
I'll get all the qualifiers out of the way first to head off the obvious responses at the pass.
I'm not mad that the Steelers won last night.
Truth of the matter, I've never been much of a Steelers-hater. I get it, they're the Steelers, we're supposed to despise them. In my life, I've only truly despised one team and you know who that is. Everyone else is the same. I don't even dislike the Yankees or Red Sox. We don't like them around here because they win a lot, granted, but that's what they're trying to do every year. The same goes with Pittsburgh, mostly. They're just another team trying to win. To me, the Steelers are the Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Raiders and so on. But that's just me. Your mileage may vary there.
I'm not upset that the Steelers got the benefit of a bunch of calls from the refs in the 4th quarter, either.
A number of the 4th quarter calls were obvious. Like, say, Chicago getting called for defensive offsides a few times. They were offsides, after all. I mean, if Robert Quinn, who is an 11-year veteran, can't line up properly, is the ref on that side of the field just supposed to look the other way? The one pass interference call that set up a big Pittsburgh gain was also the right call. The Bears were penalized 12 times for 115 yards in the 29-27 loss to Pittsburgh. My guess is 11 and 100 of those were legit.
I'm not mad that the Steelers avoided a significant home upset and are still floating around the AFC North looking semi-competitive at the same time.
When the time comes to settle things in the AFC North, the Steelers will not be heard from. They'll be 6-3 after they narrowly nip Detroit in Pittsburgh next Sunday. Then...are you ready for this? They might lose their final 8 games in a row. Seriously, they might. They finish at Los Angeles Chargers, at Cincinnati, home vs. Baltimore, at Minnesota, home vs. Tennessee, at Kansas City, home vs. Cleveland and at Baltimore. I realize the odds are against them losing all 8 of those. They'll probably steal a win in L.A. or miraculously beat the Titans or, maybe, shock the Bengals on the road. But last night's last-minute win over the Bears does nothing to improve their playoff chances, unless 9-8 or 8-9 gets you in the AFC post-season picture.
Here's why I'm mad. We'll just call it "the Cassius Marsh incident".
With the Steelers up 23-20 late in the game, they faced a 3rd and 8 at the Chicago 47 yard line. Just to set the stage, Pittsburgh entered the final 15 minutes up 20-6 and on cruise control. But the Bears suddenly looked like an NFL team and were coming fast and furious on every series. Their defense was playing better and Justin Fields, for a little white anyway, looked like he might be a legit QB in the league someday. We'll get back to you on that one, though. It's early days for him.
Anyway, on 3rd and 8, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked for a 7-yard loss by the aforementioned Cassius Marsh. Marsh couldn't just point to the sky and walk off the field, of course. Had he done that, who knows what would have transpired thereafter. Instead, Marsh did his -- as he called it after the game -- "signature move" after a sack, jumping and spinning around like Kevin Bacon in Footloose. As the Pittsburgh punter jogged onto the field, he was in direct line with Marsh. While the Chicago defender continued to hop around, all the time looking at the Steelers' bench, referee Tony Corrente started eyeing him up.
Here's what happened next.
As Marsh ran past Corrente, the official subtly -- but clearly -- moved his body backwards just a hair. Enough, though, to make contact with Marsh as he ran by. Corrente, at the same time, reached for his penalty flag and threw it, just as the Chicago player made contact with him. Marsh referred to it afterwards as a "hip check" and for you hockey fans out there, that's basically what it was, albeit a much smaller version.
Corrente said afterwards the contact "had no bearing on the taunting penalty". I nearly spit out my Royal Farms coffee this morning when I saw that.
"Of course it didn't have anything to do with it, you nitwit," I said to myself. "You initiated the contact, you friggin' goof."
It's one of the top 5 #clownshoes moments of the NFL season if you ask me.
We haven't even addressed the actual "taunting" penalty, when it happened, how it impacted the game, and so on. I understand the NFL is cracking down on taunting this season and Corrente conveniently mentioned that to the media after the game. But the NFL has been allowing taunting since the days of Mark Gastineau and Joe Klecko, if we're being honest. There's taunting on virtually every big play in every game. But they chose last night, with 3:40 remaining in a 3-point game, to suddenly tell Cassius Marsh he can't dance and stare at the Steelers bench after a sack? OK then.
Corrente 100% made contact with Marsh as he ran past him. Corrente denied doing that, of course, and even went as far as to basically say Marsh made contact with him, which is a flat-out lie.
When these officials can just throw people out of a game or give them 15-yard penalties or hand out technicals like they're Halloween Snickers bars, that's one thing. But when a referee can pull off a crafty hip-check of a player just to remind him of who is in charge, then we've reached a new low.
Predictably, by the way, after being kept alive by that penalty, the Steelers went down the field and kicked a field goal to go up 26-20. The Bears scored with 1:15 remaining to make it 27-26 and then Chicago became Chicago again and Roethlisberger took them down the field for the game-winning kick from Chris Boswell.
That hip check, though? That became the story of the game to me.
Now that....that right there....that was, in fact, "taunting".
and here's cal, talking about "the streak"
Cal Ripken Jr. is a good man. So good, in fact, he appears on #DMD to congratulate me on beating his consecutive games played streak of 2,632.
In case you just flew in from Pluto and missed Monday's edition of #DMD, yesterday, November 8, marked our 2,633rd consecutive day of publishing, besting Cal's MLB record for days-played-in-a-row.
Cal and I spend 35 minutes talking about baseball, his dad, the streak and much, much more. I couldn't think of a better way to celebrate my own streak by talking with the guy who actually has a legitimate, worthy streak of his own.
And big thanks to local P.R. whiz John Maroon for helping set up the Cal interview. Much appreciated!
november world cup qualifying preview
The US Men's National Team reconvenes this week for two important World Cup qualifiers. There is good news and bad news for the team as they prepare to take on their biggest rivals on Friday. Several key players enter the week excelling for their clubs and the team will welcome back one of its star players from injury. On the downside there were some puzzling roster decisions from Coach Gregg Berhalter and another star player was lost to an injury last week.
The US will face familiar foe Mexico in Cincinnati at 9:10pm on Friday. Then they will travel to Jamaica for a road qualifier next Tuesday at 5:00pm. Mexico enters this qualifying window at the top of the standings, three points ahead of the US, while Jamaica sits in sixth place, six points behind the US.
The Americans are still missing star winger, Gio Reyna, who has not returned from the injury he picked up in September. Current reports say Reyna will not be ready to play for his club again until January. In addition to Reyna, the US will be without last round's standout performer, Sergino Dest. The Barcelona right back injured his back last week and was forced to miss his club's Champions League and La Liga matches. It sounds like the injury is relatively minor, but came at an inopportune time for the US. Gyasi Zardes will also be missing due to injury, as he has been out for several weeks for Columbus.
Aside from the injury absences, there are several other changes to the roster from October. The most glaring are the addition of Christian Pulisic and the omission of John Brooks. Pulisic played his first minutes since September last week for Chelsea. He is available for the US, but there are some questions about his stamina level. He has only made two short sub appearances for his club and may be limited to the same capacity for the US.
John Brooks was a fairly stunning omission from this roster. He missed the October games with a back injury but was a healthy scratch this time around. Brooks had been in a poor run of form for Wolfsburg and had a shaky performance his last time out for the US. However, he has rebounded the last few games after Wolfsburg replaced its head coach. He remains the most talented center back in the US pool and his veteran presence could be sorely missed this week. Berhalter said he was left off due to his form and that he will be back again in the future, but the logic doesn't track too well when a player like Mark McKenzie was included, who hasn't been able to get off the bench for his club.
A lesser, but still frustrating, omission was Luca de la Torre. The midfielder has been excelling for his club, Heracles, in the Dutch first division and possesses technical ability that few in the US pool can match. He was left off in favor of veterans Sebastian Lletget and Cristian Roldan, who have left a lot to be desired with their recent USMNT performances.
Two welcome additions this time around are attacker Jesus Ferreira and right back Joe Scally. Both have been in outstanding form for their club teams and provide solid depth options for the US.
There should be much less squad rotation required in this window with just two games. We should see the core group of starters getting most of the playing time in each game. That being said, Berhalter continues to handicap himself with some puzzling roster decisions. In the last window, his decision to call in the slumping Shaq Moore and inexperienced George Bello severely limited the options in the middle game against Panama. Hopefully the decision to leave Brooks and de la Torre at home won't come back to haunt the US this time, but with Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie both just a yellow card away from being suspended against Jamaica, the US depth could be tested once again.
The other note on the roster selection is that no real backup striker was selected. The only natural striker Berhalter has called in is Ricardo Pepi. It seems he intends to start him in both games, but if he gets injured or fatigued, Berhalter will need to turn to Tim Weah or Jesus Ferriera who are more suited to the wing.
The clash with bitter rivals Mexico looms large in this window. With a win, the US could vault to the top of the group and give themselves some real breathing room above the cut line for qualification. Mexico will present the most difficult challenge the team has faced thus far in qualification and despite the game being on US soil, there's a decent chance the crowd won't be all that friendly.
El Tri are the only team in the region that can match or better the US from a talent level perspective. They boast a fearsome attacking trio of top European talent in Chucky Lozano (Napoli), Tecatito Corona (Porto) and Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton) to go along with an experienced midfield and defense. Unlike other CONCACAF opponents, Mexico will look to win the possession battle against the US and will often press high up the field to try to force the Americans into turnovers.
Under Berhalter, the US has matched Mexico's aggression and attempted to go blow for blow with them. This garnered two victories over the summer, albeit both in extra time after being tied in regulation. Oftentimes in games like this it's the team that avoids costly mistakes that wins.
With that in mind, Berhalter will likely opt for a more veteran lineup. We will probably see Deandre Yedlin getting the nod over Joe Scally at right back, Paul Arriola on the wing over Tim Weah and potentially Walker Zimmerman at center back over Chris Richards or Mark McKenzie.
It would be surprising if Christian Pulisic is able to start this game, which means a large share of the playmaking duties will fall on Brenden Aaronson. The New Jersey native is having a great season for Red Bull Salzburg and will look to carry that over to the national team.
Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie are the heart of the American midfield and both players come in off a wave of good performances. Adams was outstanding in a big win for RB Leipzig over Borussia Dortmund this weekend. McKennie has taken his play to a new level after his unfortunate dismissal from the US team in September. He has been one of the best players for Juventus over the past few weeks and can be a game changer against Mexico. His prowess in the air was instrumental in the win over Mexico in the Nations League and his combination of ball winning and ball progression are crucial to controlling the midfield.
Antonee Robinson is another American player coming into the two-game series in great form. His matchup on the left side with either Corona or Lozano and Mexican right back Chaka Rodriguez will be crucial to the outcome of the game. Both Rodriguez and Robinson can be dangerous getting forward into attack and hitting crosses from the wing. Robinson will need to neutralize Mexico's dynamic wingers in the defensive end while also pushing forward into attack enough to keep Rodriguez honest. With Sergino Dest out, the US will be even more reliant on Robinson to get involved in the attack. Whichever team is able to press their fullbacks higher in attack may be able to pin back the opposition and gain the upper hand in possession.
While the Mexico game will get more attention due to the rivalry, the Jamaica game may be the most important of the week. Getting a win, or even a draw, against Mexico can be seen as more of a bonus for qualification than a necessity. The US really needs to make sure it gets as many points as it can against the weaker opponents in the group. An away game against a poor Jamaica team, with a sparse crowd, is a great opportunity to pick up a road win and three important points.
If the US can get at least three points from the two games they would keep themselves on track. Four or more points would put them in great position when they return in late January for the next round of qualifiers.
| Monday November 8, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2633 |
"no one will ever break cal's streak"
And, so, here it is.
Our 2,633rd consecutive day of publishing. Through the grace of God and the help of some hi-tech friends who know a lot more than the "site owner", we have never missed a day since August 25, 2014. Not one, single day. We came close, mind you, including this past Saturday night/Sunday morning, but today is day number 2,633.
And, yes, we have playfully published one more day than Cal Ripken's epic baseball games played streak of 2,632, but he played baseball day in and day out and we write about sports, here. There's a big difference -- and we know that.
I honestly didn't set out to publish 2,633 days in a row. Or maybe I did, actually. I mean, it's called "Drew's Morning Dish", which suggests it comes out in the morning. And while it doesn't say "every morning", the implication is there that we publish something new every morning.
I have no idea when the day will come when, for whatever reason, we don't publish a new edition of Drew's Morning Dish. I'm hoping it's a technical error that we can't overcome and that we're right back at it the very next day. But I'll let God handle all of that and I'll just keep publishing until I don't.
The three guys who have rescued me the most over the years are George McDowell, Tony Young and Mike Herb. All three of them have handled an emergency call (or three) from me along the way, frantically trying to figure out something that's gone wrong with the main #DMD computer. Without those three, Cal's streak is safe today.
The corporate partners here, from day one until now, are the very reason why #DMD exists. I hope -- if you haven't already -- that you peruse the various ads and images you see on the website today and patronize one, two, three or as many of those businesses as you can. When I first set out to create #DMD, my one main premise was that it would always be free. I understand the New York Times and Washington Post have a much different business model than this website, but nothing chaps me more than seeing a story I want to read and then getting blocked by their paywall.
On August 25, 2014, I said "#DMD will always be free" and I've stayed the course on that subject. But it's only because of the various corporate partners that I've been able to do that.
And thank you, thank you, thank you to those who come here and read the website. Whether that's daily, regularly, occasionally or just once in a blue moon, you're appreciated. Thanks to those of you who take time to comment about the various stories and columns and thanks to the roughly 98% of you who follow our modest rules about posting. It's not perfect, and we still deal with the occasional nitwit, but 98% is a good number when it comes to readers who follow the rules. So, thank you for that.
So, with Cal's streak officially in the rear view mirror, who better to talk with about that than.....Cal Ripken Jr. himself. I recently got the chance to sit down with the Iron Man (the real one) and talk about his streak and the Orioles and his life in baseball. That interview will run here tomorrow.
We were blessed to do a sitdown we did with Jim Nantz this past Saturday. That interview was originally supposed to run on Sunday but we experienced some technical troubles, so it's up for you today. Please note there is a point in the inteview where we lose our connection with Jim and he goes silent for about 15 seconds. He'll be back, though.
What's next? Well, circle May 2, 2028 on your calendar. That's 5,000 consecutive days. It might be called "Ethan's Morning Dish" by then, but I hope we're still around publishing on that date.
ravens are 6-2, ravens are 6-2, ravens are 6-2
You just have to keep repeating that to yourself over and over, right?
"The Ravens are 6-2."
You can throw in "Somehow, the Ravens are 6-2," if you like. That's fair. I mean, there record is misleading in terms of the quality of football they've played through the first 8 games. But they've played 8 games and they've won 6. That really is, as they say, "the end of the story."
Yesterday's game was just as bizarre as the one against Indianapolis a few weeks back or the game in Detroit earlier in the season where Justin Tucker hit the longest field goal in league history to rescue John Harbaugh's team from an embarrassing loss.
I mean, just about everything that could have gone wrong -- in every department -- went wrong, and yet they somehow still managed to win.
And I realize people like to nitpick and tear things apart, but it really does say something about the players and the coaches that they can somehow extricate themselves from these awful situations and wind up winning games we otherwise all sort of thought they were going to lose at some point in those respective games.
Offense yesterday? Not all that good, yet they somehow scored 34 points. The running backs are trying hard, and Le'Veon Bell actually had some extra steam in overtime, it seemed to me, but this group of ball carriers is woefully limited over 60 minutes. Here and there they'll do something decent, but for the most part, you're not getting much from them.
It wasn't a great day for Lamar Jackson, either, but guess what happened at the end? The Ravens won. Jackson has quietly (or loudly?) become that guy, if you will. You know, the one who makes a mistake or two in the game, does something goofy at the wrong time, then atones for it later on by -- wait for it -- helping the Ravens win. There is going to be a lot of talk in the off-season about Lamar's contract and the sense here is that the town will be very split on the subject of giving him $400 or $500 million, but there's one thing about that young man you can't debate -- he's a winner.
I don't know about you, but "he's a winner" is one of the best things any athlete can have as their label. All Lamar has done since he entered the league is win games. Go to the internet and look it up if you don't believe me.
The defense wasn't great yesterday, although it's fair to point out they did tighten up in the second half and allowed just one touchdown, albeit a late-game drive that won't look good on film this week. The same issues that have plagued the Baltimore defense were front-and-center yesterday. No pass rush, poor tackling, flimsy coverage in the secondary. Granted, Minnesota's QB-WR duo is solid, but the errors being made by the defense are seemingly piling up week after week.
And just to throw in one more "downer", the Ravens allowed a kick return for a touchdown to start the second half. So there.
But there were good moments, too.
Patrick Ricard had one Hall of Fame series in the 3rd quarter. He's developing into a silent weapon for the Ravens, when they use him.
Devin Duvernay made a Hall of Fame catch in the end zone for a touchdown. That was a legit NFL catch, folks. Very impressive.
Rashod Bateman continues to impress. When the Ravens need a first down, they go to him. Whether he ever becomes another Justin Jefferson remains to be seen, but thus far, the early returns on last April's first round pick are favorable.
Patrick Queen made a couple of noteworthy plays yesterday. The maligned 2020 first round pick was essentially benched a few weeks ago, but has rebounded nicely since then. He is, by the very definition, a work in progress. But those folks who gave up on him around week four this season might have to re-think that eventually.
And...there's Justin Tucker. You might have heard of him. He likes Royal Farms coffee and fried chicken. He even puts gas in his car at Royal Farms. Oh, and he's the guy who hit yet another game-winning field goal for the Ravens yesterday, in overtime. Yes, it was of the "chip shot" variety (for him), but it was still successful and it gave the Ravens yet another nailbiting win.
The NFL Hall of Fame has gone out of their way over the years to keep punters and kickers out of Canton. A couple of made it, but a lot of deserving "leg guys" have not and will not ever get their mustard colored jacket.
They will not be able to keep Justin Tucker out of Canton. Someday, he's going to make it. And, if you really want to stir the pot, try this on for size: he should get in on his first attempt. He's the best kicker in the history of the league and, another dirty little secret here -- it might not be all that close.
I've said this before and I'll say it again: Justin Tucker is the best Ravens player ever, in terms of his quality and skill set for his position. I'm a Ray Lewis fan, just like you. I'm a Jonathan Ogden and Ed Reed fan, just like you. But Tucker's football "quality" is better than anyone who has ever played in Baltimore. Sorry, Ray.
And, so, the Ravens now do a crash course in studying the Dolphins in advance of this Thursday night's game in Miami. "Lamar goes home", sorta-kinda. It should be over by halftime, but I'm quite certain that's what the Bills thought yesterday when they played in Jacksonville.
#dmd comments
| Saturday November 6, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2631 |
we need occasional reminders
This has been a wild week in sports.
I'm always confused by this, but doesn't the week actually start on Sunday? I thought that's what Miss Wells said in first grade back at Glendale Elementary School in 1970 but I could be wrong. I'm sure the internet would tell me right now if I went to Google for the info, but it's not that important.
If the week did start on Sunday, then things got wild right out of the gate when the Bengals lost to the Jets after beating the dickens out of the Ravens in Baltimore one week before.
Editor's note: OK, I couldn't keep going without checking it. In the United States and Canada, Sunday is considered to be the start of the week, which is why calendars show it as such. God Bless Miss Wells.
So the week got off to a wacky start on the football field. How on earth could the Bengals lose to the Jets? Easy answer: It's sports.
And, let's be honest, they're the Bengals. They're improving, yes. They could be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC North in the years to come. But, at least for now, they're still the Bengals and they're still capable of doing stuff like going to New York to face a team with one win and.....losing.
The other reminder from last Sunday is just how narrow the margin is for success in the NFL. Or any sport, really.
About 75% of the teams in every league are good. 15% of the teams are head-and-shoulders-better-than-everyone-else. And 10% of the teams are really bad that year, for whatever reason(s). Now, it's true that perhaps the Bengals (one of the 75%) were facing one of the 10% (Jets) and, therefore, shouldn't have lost, but it's still sports and the other team still tries and the other coaches still don't sleep for five days to try and figure out a way to win their next game.
For those wondering, I'm not really prepping you for tomorrow's Ravens-Minnesota game in Baltimore. Not really. Well, OK, maybe I am, sorta-kinda. I don't see the Ravens losing tomorrow, mind you, but because both teams fall in the 75% category in the NFL -- right now, anyway -- I see the game tomorrow as one of those that either team could win and you'd say, "Yeah, I guess that's to be expected."
Just remember the other teams have players on scholarship as well. They all watch the same game film that your favorite players and coaches watch. It's sports. You're not supposed to be able to figure it out. If you could, you'd have a much bigger house than you currently have and your fleet of cars in the garage would be far more expensive than your current group.
The reminder: That's why they play the game. Anything can happen.
The Henry Ruggs III story out of Las Vegas is, without question, one of the most tragic events -- sports wise -- of the last decade.
A young woman on her way to work at Target was struck in her vehicle by Ruggs' car, which apparently was traveling at 127 miles-per-hour at impact. That, in and of itself, is terrible. But Ruggs, operating a vehicle at a speed that was entirely unsafe and reckless, was apparently also under the influence of alcohol.
Not that he deserves to "wiggle out of it", but there's no way Ruggs is going to be able to wiggle out of this one. It would be entirely different -- lawyer wise, that is -- if Ruggs was drinking and going, say, 55 in a 45 MPH zone. Or, if, say, Ruggs' alcohol level was .09 instead of .16.
In those two situations, Ruggs' attorney would say, "My client was wrong, your honor, but it wasn't like he was recklessly and dangerously wrong. He made a mistake. He went 10 miles over the speed limit." Or, "My client was wrong, your honor, but he had one drink too many that pushed him from .06 to .09." In either of those cases, a judge might be a tad more accommodating than in the current situation.
Ruggs was driving a car at 156 MPH. And, not that this matters to any of us, but it surely might matter to the judge: He also had someone in the vehicle with him. There's another strike against the ex-Raiders wide receiver, not that one was needed. And Ruggs' alcohol level was .16.
The website "PreventionLane.org" says, at .16, the person in question experiences "nausea, high anxiety, is "sloppy drunk" and could pass out." Yikes. Those are tough conditions sitting in your living room, let alone driving a car. At 156 MPH.
Ruggs' career is over. Unless something really, really strange happens when he gets his day in court, Ruggs is going to prison and he won't get out in time to re-establish his football career. More importantly, of course, he could spend the next 10-40 years in prison after new charges were brought forward yesterday.
Then there's the whole other side of the story: his friends and family rushing to his side and offering their support. Social media exploded earlier this week when Ruggs' teammate, Derek Carr, said, "I don't know what's going to happen with Henry, but I know this. If he needs me I'm going to be there for him. I love the guy. I'll help however I can."
Others in his world, football and otherwise, have pledged the same support for Ruggs. They, too, have been chastised by others who, apparently, think Ruggs no longer deserves support or accommodation.
What Henry Ruggs III did was incredibly awful and wrong and he deserves whatever punishment the Nevada court deems fitting for him. I think we all agree on that.
But there's also nothing at all wrong with showing Ruggs empathy and support in what is certainly the worst thing that could have or will have ever happened to him in this life of his. He would, as I'm sure he'll tell the court some day, take it all back if he could somehow do that. But he can't.
That said, I applaud Derek Carr for standing up this week and telling the world he still loves Henry Ruggs III and he's still there to support him.
In John 8:7, Jesus tells a group of men who are in the village court to scorn a woman accused of adultery: "The one without sin among you should be the first to throw a stone at her."
The reminder: Humans make mistakes. Terrible mistakes, even. And while there are occasional punishments that must coincide with those mistakes, the offenders still deserve to be loved. They need the chance to redeem themselves.
Aaron Rodgers is in the news, in case you haven't noticed. And he reminds me of an old saying: The only way Aaron can say less is by speaking more.
Rodgers is going to miss this Sunday's big game in Kansas City because he tested positive for Covid-19 on Wednesday. We wrote about that subject here on Thursday and, like most of you, we're pretty much exhausted with the whole coronavirus discussion. It's here, it's not leaving anytime soon, and we all just have to continue doing whatever we think is "right" in order to help mitigate its spread.
But we're past that now with Rodgers, thanks in part to a 46-minute radio interview on Friday where he fully explained his vaccination status and, at the same time, caused a stir with a number of other comments he made.
We're on to another angle of the story: Is Aaron Rodgers nuts?
That answer, of course, depends on what side of the Covid-19 fence you're on. Rodgers proclaimed on Friday he's allergic to the ingredients in both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and that he sought an alternative "immunization treatment" over the off-season instead of the vaccine.
The NFL didn't buy the whole "immunization" story, by the way, and they listed Rodgers as "unvaccinated" at the start of the 2021 season.
Rodgers went on to say "I believe strongly in bodily automony and the ability to make choices for your body, not to have to acquiesce to some woke culture or crazed group of individuals who say you have to do something."
The quarterback also admitted to using a "recovery cocktail" given to him by outspoken Covid-19 critic Joe Rogan, where Rodgers took zinc, vitamin-C, ivermectin and other chemicals designed to fight the virus in his body. Ivermectin has been rumored to being prescribed by doctors but is more well known for its use with horses, a fact that leads many to scoff at its value for Covid-19 treatment.
You probably know what happened once that interview started making the rounds on Friday. Rodgers got raked over the coals by pro-Covid-vaccine groups everywhere. Almost as he predicted, they came at the Green Bay quarterback with a red-hot-poker.
The biggest issue for Rodgers has been wearing a mask during post-game news conferences. He addressed that situation on Friday as well. "I think it's unnecessary for an unvaccinated player who is tested daily for Covid-19 to be forced to wear a mask in a room full of reporters who have been vaccinated and are masked. I've followed every league and team protocol to a T -- minus that one, because it makes absolutely no sense to me."
Point well taken, I guess. If you get tested for Covid-19 at 10:00 am and then go meet with reporters a few hours later and they're all wearing masks and vaccinated, what's the harm in you being unmasked around them? I mean, you apparently don't have Covid-19 and they're all masked and vaccinated so -- never mind. This whole thing is so confusing and changes by the day it's not really worth elaborating on any longer.
Rodgers is out this Sunday. He's out because he tested positive for Covid-19. And that might be OK, actually.
But the examination into his personal life and the rest of it? That might not be OK. We're getting more and more into that these days as a country, wanting to know what you think, what you believe and so on. Aaron Rodgers doesn't believe in the Covid-19 vaccination. And I get it, that's a slippery slope given the enormous death total in our country related to the virus. But does he deserve to be ridiculed for his beliefs?
The reminder: Athletes are just regular people like you and I except they play sports for a living instead of selling cars, putting up siding, painting houses or operating on people. They occasionally say smart things, not so smart things and, like the rest of us, believe what they believe based on their upbringing, their studies, their religious convictions and what they see and/or hear on television.
#dmd comments
| Friday November 5, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2630 |
friday stuff
Well, things are a little crazy with the Phoenix Suns right now.
The team? Oh, they're doing fine. The Suns, who made it to the NBA Finals last season, are off to a 4-3 start. Nothing to see there. They'll be a Western Conference playoff team come next April. All good on the court.
But...off the court. Not so good.
If you haven't yet heard about it, you will. ESPN.com published a scathing, eye-opening story on Thursday at 12 noon, chronicling some wildly inappopriate behavior by Suns majority owner Robert Sarver. You're welcome to go to the ESPN website and check it out for yourself. We try our best not to link their stuff here since, well, I'm still waiting for ESPN to link #DMD on their front page.
But the story is easy to locate if you want to find it. And strictly from a journalism standpoint, ESPN senior writer Baxter Holmes knocked it out of the park. We all might read it and have differing opinions on the validity of the charges raised against Robert Sarver, but there's no denying that Holmes gave everyone a fair shot in the piece. It's one of the best things ESPN.com has done in a long time, in terms of giving the folks involved ample opportunity to defend themselves against the allegations presented in the story.
I saw on social media yesterday several references to "hit job" as people read the story and then offered their reaction.
Let's get this straight right from the opening tip-off. The story about Robert Sarver was in no way a journalistic "hit job". It was thorougly researched and anyone mentioned or referenced was given the opportunity to be quoted if they so choose to do so. A "hit job" would have been a story where Sarver and others were the highlight of the piece but weren't given the chance to explain themselves.
The story is awful. If Sarver is indeed guilty of the allegations against him, he can no longer own the Phoenix Suns. It's really that simple. An owner of any business could no longer own that business if the charges against Sarver were replicated at a restaurant, roofing company, law firm and so on.
At the root of it are several instances of Sarver using the "n-word" or brushing up too closely against sensitive topics involving African-American players with team officials and executives, dating back to as early as 2004. Even recently, Sarver used the word with his head coach and other front office staffers.
Sarver, it's worth noting -- for those of you who don't find the story and read it -- has essentially denied everything in the story through his legal team. There are other instances of general inappropriate behavior in the story as well, like Sarver passing around a photo of his wife in a bikini and commenting to staff members about the couple's sex life. While that's also uncalled for in the workplace, those incidents seem trivial in comparison to the racially-charged environment Sarver apparently both produced and approved of in Phoenix.
Someone on social media yesterday asked "If it's been so bad in Phoenix and he was using the n-word in 2016, why is it all just now coming out in 2021?"
That does seem like a fair question, but one for which I don't think I have an answer. The general thought looking back on it now is that the coach in Phoenix (at the time, Earl Watson, who is Black and Hispanic) was not in a position to challenge Sarver publicly. The coach apparently did tell Sarver not to use the n-word in front of him, but that's as far as the the challenge went.
Five years later, though, the story has erupted. The NBA is now investigating both Sarver and the toxic workplace environment in Phoenix and the casual wager here is that all of this is eventually going to lead to Sarver being asked/forced to sell his majority ownership in the franchise.
As it should, of course.
It never ceases to amaze me how people throw around the n-word -- yes, even in 2021 -- and assume it's acceptable. Robert Sarver, if the allegations in the story are true, thought it was more than acceptable. It's hard to understand, for sure.
Meanwhile, kudos to Baxter Holmes for authoring one of the best (or worst?) sports stories of 2021. It was executed with both great investigating and great writing, something you don't see much of these days.
If what the Orioles are doing now means anything next season, it would appear Adley Rutschman is in their plans for opening day in the major leagues.
The Orioles outrighted Pedro Severino to Norfolk on Thursday, removing him from the team's 40-man roster and leaving a glaring opening at the catcher position. Severino will likely catch on elsewhere, but if he doesn't, he'll certainly be part of the team's camp in Sarasota next spring and could always serve as a back-up in Baltimore in 2022.
But Severino's demotion likely means one thing: Rutschman is coming north next March.
Or, at the very least, that's what you would surmise from the news about Severino on Thursday.
The question looming is this: Will the Orioles confirm Rutschman is going to be with the team next spring in order to bump off-season ticket sales or will they wait until next spring to do that? And then there's this, which is worth asking even though it seems like dirty pool: Will the O's give the opening day catching job to Austin Wynns or to a journeyman of some kind at the opening of the season, make Rutschman spend the first month and a half in Norfolk, and then bring him up to avoid the first year of his service time?
Let's also remember this: No free agent catcher worth his salt -- or even someone only worth a little bit of salt -- isn't going to sign in Baltimore this winter. He and his agent both know Rutschman's on the way at some point soon. Why deal with that in Baltimore? Austin Wynns might be happy about all of these developments because, if nothing else, his back-up role seems fairly secure moving forward.
All of the options connected to Rutschman seem to be in play. It is, after all, the Orioles we're talking about here. They've never been great at telling their fan base what's going on.
Rutschman in Baltimore to start the season would be awesome. And, yes, I do think there are some people who might plunk down money for a mini-plan who otherwise wouldn't have done that just to have first dibs on opening day seats for the catcher's major league debut. I might even be one of those people.
Rutschman in May wouldn't be bad, either, but is that really the way the Orioles want to start their meaningful-relationship-years with him? Sure, other teams do it, which would be the line Mike Elias would use with Rutschman and his agent when they tell him he's going to toil in Norfolk for six weeks or so to start the season. But just because your cousin sneaks a drink out of dad's vodka, does that mean you have to do it, too? The Orioles would be best served to not mess around with Rutschman. If he's indeed "the future", treat him as such.
Thursday's news about Severino put the wheels in motion. The Orioles are pretty much an afterthought in these parts until mid-February at least, unless they were to sign a significant free-agent or two, which seems pretty unlikely. But at the very least, the prospect of Rutschman starting the 2022 campaign in Baltimore might be enough meat for local baseball fans to chew on over the next four months.
This Orioles enthusiast is certainly interested in seeing how the Rutschman situation plays out, that's for sure.
The U.S. men's soccer team released their 25-man roster for the next two-game cycle of World Cup qualifying games on Thursday and the roster is a little bit puzzling.
Veterans Paul Arriola, Cristan Roldan and Sebastian Lletget are part of the 25-man group, while forward Matthew Hoppe and defender John Brooks were left out. Brooks apparently has fallen out of favor with head coach Gregg Berhalter and with Mexico (at home next Friday) and Jamaica (away, Nov. 16) on the upcoming docket, Berhalter opted for speed over experience when it came to the decision on Brooks.
DeAndre Yedlin, who has been in and out of Berhalter's lineup over the last two years, was named to the 25-man squad and will likely start against Mexico in order to match-up with the quick pace employed by El Tri.
But it's Berhalter's on-going fasciation with veterans Arriola, Roldan and Lletget that has U.S. soccer supporters scratching their heads.
All three are capable players, of course. It's not like they're chopped liver. But all three are also limited in what they can and can't do. Arriola, for example, is a workhorse on the wing who will also accept and play out his defensive responsibilities. But it's unlikely he'll be a goal scoring threat unless something wacky happens and he finds a ball at his feet in the goal box. He's just not a playmaker kind of guy.
Roldan is decent enough on the ball, but like Arriola, unlikely to involve himself much from a creative standpoint. He's a good insurance policy on free kicks and corner kicks in the event Christian Pulisic isn't 100% and can't play all 90 minutes, and if that's the sole reason why Berhalter opted to keep him on the roster this time around, that's understandable. But Roldan's role within the game itself is pretty limited.
The same goes for Lletget, who has seen extensive playing time under Berhalter. Good player and all, but nothing more than that. And in games against teams like Mexico and Jamaica, his pace and touch on the ball will be showcased in a big way. It remains to be seen if he -- or either of the other two -- start in the upcoming two games, but if they do, you can expect to hear some loud howling from U.S. soccer fans.
Meanwhile, the addition of Pulisic to the roster was indeed a welcomed sight. He missed the previous 3-game cycle with an injury suffered in the opening 3-games and just recently got back into the Chelsea lineup in the English Premier League. The top offensive player for Berhalter, Pulisic must be close to 100% or he wouldn't have been added to the roster for the upcoming two games. Both Mexico and Jamaica are physical teams who will no doubt try and go after Pulisic every time he touches the ball.
Our soccer writer, Randy Morgan, will have plenty more on the games next week here at #DMD. As always, a win at home and, at the very least, a tie on the road, will be what the Americans are looking for. Four points in any direction...that's the goal.
meet carson wentz
On the heels of last night's Colts 45-30 win over the Jets, today seems like a great day to profile one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, Carson Wentz.
Wentz is one of the league's more well publicized Christian athletes and his message below in the 4-minute video is a great one for everyone to absorb, no matter what you do for a living.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment here at #DMD.
| Thursday November 4, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2629 |
wanna bet? you can't
This is, of course, completely expected in our great state of Maryland.
While states all around us are enjoying the windfall associated with legalized sports betting, Maryland and our fabulous government officials are dragging their feet. You can drive to Delaware and bet on this Sunday's Ravens-Minnesota game. In fact, a lot of people from Bel Air, Towson and White Marsh will do just that.
Editor's note: Our state government officials aren't really all that "fabulous". That was sarcasm.
In September, New Jersey raked in $1 billion in sports betting revenue. That's $1 with a "B". $1 billion.
Maryland is apparently slow to authorize the sports betting licenses because they're consulting with casino owners, who are naturally balking at the addition of legalized sports gambling in the state. Oddly, the casino owners weren't balking fifteen years ago when the horse racing folks in the state were worried that casino games would potentially detract from horse wagering. #clownshoes
Horse racing might be a bad comparison because the industry was fading away a decade ago and casino gambling didn't have much, if anything, to do with it. But the fact remains casino owners are petrified of sports gambling impacting their business the same way horse folks argued that casino gambling would damage thoroughbred racing and gambling, both "live" and at off-track facilities.
So Maryland continues to plod along, going nowhere, and acting like their due diligence is a good thing.
Our state's nothing if not, well, "methodical", let's say. You might have another word for it. "Corrupt" could possibly fit. "Not forward thinking" has potential (that's three words, actually). "Afraid to make progress" is a good one (four words).
No matter what you might think, the mere fact that you can drive to Delaware and bet on the NBA, NHL and NFL today but can't do that in Maryland is a joke. Someday down the road, you're going to be able to bet on anything and everything right from your smart phone. In fact, "smart states" are already allowing it in some capacity. You can either jump ahead of everyone and incorporate that now or wait until 2028 and be behind the times.
Take a guess where Maryland will be in 2028 while the rest of the country is betting on sports from their phone.
Gambling is going to touch everyone who likes, supports or is associated with sports.
You want a good long term investment? Start buying stock in internet provider companies. You know, the ones who will be tasked with intergrating wireless connectivity into stadiums and arenas that actually works for everyone in the place. Once you can start betting on what the next play will be or who will score the next run or whether the next 3-pointer is made or missed, you better believe the wi-fi in the place better be flawless.
Whether you personally approve of gambling or don't, it's here. It's not going anywhere. And it's actually booming to heights we've not yet seen.
I like gambling, but more as a spectator than a participant. I've seen way too many things happen along the way over the last 40 years to not have a certain level of distrust in the role gambling plays in major sports in our country. The only gambling I actually enjoy participating in is when I control it. Which is to say, I like gambling on myself. That way, I know who to blame when I'm paying out at day's end.
But I also see the merits in legalizing gambling and allowing for profits to flow into the state of Maryland in the same way lottery profits have filled the state's coffers. I can honestly say I've probably purchased a dozen lottery tickets in my time. It's just not my thing. But I wouldn't ever say "We shouldn't have a lottery!" just because I don't play the numbers every night.
Editor's note: Now Keno...that's a different story. 11-21-55. Go play those three numbers yourself today and send me a bottle of Silver Oak when you hit a few times in one hour. But I digress.
People are going to wager on sports. They've been doing it forever, like it or not. That doesn't mean you have to wager on sports, but it does mean you have to understand others are going to do it and many will do it with great passion.
In current terms of sports gambling, you're either a state that "gets it" and figures out a way to approve it and get it going or, you're Maryland, and you're losing out on billions and billions of dollars over the course of a couple of years. New Jersey just did one billion in revenue in one month, remember.
Those 200 Baltimore City schools that don't have air conditioning? Six months of legalized sports gambling in Maryland and everyone's classroom will be 68 degrees in May, June and September, which are traditionally the three hot months of the school calendar.
We probably won't gamble like they do in New Jersey, mind you, because they have a lot more people from which to draw, but the folks in Bel Air and Towson and Glen Burnie won't be buzzing up to Delaware Park to place their sports bets if Maryland can get its act together.
"Maryland" and "get its act together" -- words you don't often hear or see colliding in the same sentence.
And with good reason, I might add.
Two quarterbacks were in the news on Wednesday. First, Aaron Rodgers will miss this Sunday's game vs. Kansas City because of a positive Covid-19 test on Wednesday morning. I don't even know what to say about this any longer. It's so out of whack and confusing that I don't know where to begin.
When the country stopped on a dime in March of 2020, we went into a two month hibernation period while "smart" (in quotes for a reason) people figured out what to do next.
"Wear masks, wash your hands often and use social distancing techniques," they said. Those practices would serve to help mitigate the spread. Made sense to me. I did all three of those things. People still got Covid-19.
"Not enough people are wearing masks, washing their hands or socially distancing" was the response from the smart people.
A year later, the vaccine became available.
"Get vaccinated, now! You'll save your life and other lives, too," they said. Made complete sense to me. I got vaccinated. No worries there. But people still got Covid-19.
"Not enough people are getting vaccinated," was the response from the smart people.
And so, we've come to find out the truth: Masks and vaccinations and 6-feet apart...it's all well and good. Those things are part of being "responsible". But guess what? People are still getting Covid-19. I had a good friend, vaccinated, in terrific health, who just got crushed by the virus. It happens. He didn't do anything wrong. He did everything he was supposed to do. And he still got Covid.
You're telling me Aaron Rodgers can't play a football game on Sunday because he tested positive for Covid on Wednesday? We're 20 months into this thing now and we're still acting like we know what's going on. Test him before the game on Sunday. If he has Covid on Sunday at 12 noon, then he can't play.
Testing someone on Wednesday and telling him he can't play on Sunday is stupid. If there's one thing we've learned since March 2020, it's that we really don't know what's going on. We're doing the best we can, which is great. But we're making up rules and stuff as we go along and it's silly.
Just because Aaron Rodgers tests positive for Covid on Wednesday does not, in any way, guarantee he'll test positive for it on Sunday at 12 noon. Heck, I just remembered it's the Sunday night game. Test him at 5:00 pm.
But while Rodgers deals with Covid-19, Baker Mayfield deals with another kind of virus: Odell Beckham Jr.'s dad. And Odell Beckham Jr. And the rest of the Cleveland wide receivers.
Earlier this week, Beckham's dad published a lengthy video on social media showing how many times in Cleveland's first eight games that his son was open and available to receive a pass that Mayfield didn't throw his way.
Who does that?
I mean, seriously, who does that? What adult stoops to the level of creating friction within his son or daughter's sports team in the middle of the season like some kind of fan who lost a lucrative parlay wager because the quarterback missed an open receiver with 30 seconds left in the game?
Did Odell Beckham Jr. know that video was going to be published by his father and "approved it" beforehand? If so, the Browns should immediately cut him. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. Pack up your locker and go.
If Beckham Jr. didn't know, he should immediately apologize to Baker Mayfield and read his father the riot act. This is one of the great #clownshoes moments of 2021. A professional football player's father developed and produced a video that serves only to embarrass and ridicule one of his teammates and this is somehow "OK" with people?
Here's the oddest part of the whole thing: Mayfield was great when he was asked about it on Wednesday. He didn't complain. He didn't fire back at Beckham Jr. The Browns' quarterback basically said, "I haven't heard from him, but if he's concerned about the way our offense is playing and his role, I'd love to talk with him about it. I don't hold any grudges or ill will. I just want to win."
That's actually a perfect response. It was so perfect, I couldn't believe it was authored by Mayfield. But he said it. And apparently, he even believes it.
All Odell Beckham's dad did this week by releasing that video was raise Baker Mayfield's profile.
Nice job, pops.
Former Baltimore Colts running back Tom Matte passed away yesterday at the age of 82.
I last saw Matte in July or August at Eagle's Nest, where he was a member for the better part of the last 20 years.
Tom and I played a handful of rounds of golf together circa 2000 or so, when we would both do the "summer scramble tour" around Baltimore and play in various charity events. He loved golf. As his health declined over the years, he got to play less and less, but that didn't stop him from visiting Eagle's Nest often and asking me about my game or what was going on at Calvert Hall.
When I first joined the club in 2015, Matte approached me one day on the practice putting green.
"Drew, I'm slicing the ball something terrible," he said. "Help me get rid of that slice."
"Easy," I said. "Just aim your body a little right and hit the ball out to right field. That will get rid of your slice."
We small talked for a few minutes and off he went, back to his late afternoon cocktail and more friendly banter with club members.
A few weeks later, I approached my locker and saw an envelope taped to it. Inside was a $50 gift card to Golf Galaxy along with a note from Matte: "My slice is gone. Thank you. Now please fix my hook!"
Tom Matte was a good man.
He often remarked to me how much he enjoyed doing the annual Thanksgiving Day "Turkey Bowl" with Scott Garceau on Channel 2. Matte didn't have a dog in the hunt, mind you. He liked both schools. He was just excited to be in the booth, calling an important local game, and spending time with Garceau, of whom he was very fond.
The Baltimore Colts will forever be indebted to Tom Matte, as will the folks in Charm City who lived and breathed with "The Horseshoe" during Matte's years in blue and white.
Prior to week one of the NFL season, I went through the Ravens schedule and did a game by game 'prediction' all the way up to the bye week.
I actually got lucky and predicted they'd be 5-2, however, I had the second loss coming to the Chiefs and not the Bengals. But as I noted in that column, it is crazy to try and predict December games in September. Well, since it is November and after watching the Ravens through the first seven games, now seems like a good time to take a 'guess' as to how the rest of the season plays out for John Harbaugh and his team.
November 7 vs Minnesota: This game won't be easy with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen running around in the secondary along with running back Dalvin Cook, who is a threat every time he touches the ball. But John Harbaugh is 10-3 coming out of the bye and I just can't see the Ravens losing back-to-back games at home. Minnesota is a strange team. I am not sure if they are better than what their record says or worse. Either way, they keep games close and this one on Sunday will be close until about the two-minute warning. Ravens win by 3 points.
November 11 at Miami: I know the data says that road teams are usually at a disadvantage on Thursday night games, but Miami is a dumpster fire. Their offense is mediocre at best and the Dolphins' defense has underperformed all year. I could see this being over by half time. Ravens with a blowout win.
November 21 at Chicago: Once the Bears fire Matt Nagy and get a real coach, their team will be pretty good. Justin Fields continues to improve each week; Khali Herbert will give the Ravens a fit, as will Darrell Mooney. But in the end, the Bears biggest issue is Nagy. Ravens make it three in a row with a win in the Windy City.
November 28 vs Cleveland: The Browns have taken a step back this year. There is a decent chance Baker Mayfield could be done for the year by this point given all the injuries. Odell Beckham is a shell of his former self and Jarvis Landry can't seem to stay healthy. Nick Chubb, if fully healthy, could have a 100-yard game in this one, but the offense just isn't there for the Browns. The biggest challenge in this game will be keeping Lamar healthy. The Browns front seven is pretty good, led by All Pro Myles Garrett. This game is about 24 days away, so God only knows who will be the starting tackles for the Ravens at that point. I'll go with the Ravens here.
*Note, this is where the season gets interesting.*
December 5 at Pittsburgh: The win streak comes to an end in Pittsburgh. This is just a rivalry game where anything could happen. As long as Ben is still upright and playing, I will give the Steelers a chance. By no means is he as good as he once was, but he knows how to win these games. Najee Harris will be a huge problem for the Ravens defense, especially in the passing game. I give the nod to the home team by four points.
December 12 at Cleveland: For the second time in three weeks, the Ravens get the Browns. Similar to what I said above, the Browns don't seem to be as dangerous as most people thought they would be in 2021. Unless something drastic happens here, the Ravens will sweep the Browns. Again, Baltimore's biggest concern will be keeping Lamar healthy against the Browns pass rush.
December 19 vs Green Bay: Part of me wants to say the Ravens win because the game is at home, but I am not betting against Aaron Rodgers (unless, you know, the whole COVID thing happens again). Unless the secondary for the Ravens does a total 180 over the next six weeks or so, Rodgers and Davante Adams will pick them apart. Packers win by 10.
December 26 at Cincinnati: No way the Bengals sweep the Ravens. The Ravens get their revenge and firmly secure their spot atop the AFC North. By this point of the year, I think the Bengals come back to earth and realize they are still a year away from being a serious contender.
January 2 vs L.A. Rams: Another home loss for the Ravens. I don't know who on this team can stop Cooper Kupp. The Rams offense has been rolling all year and this Baltimore defense has not seen an offense this high powered. The whole west coast team coming east is out the window with this being a 4:25pm game.
January 9 vs Steelers: If this game has any meaning, this would be a prime candidate to be flexed to the Sunday Night Game of the Week. At home, to close out the season, the Ravens beat the Steelers to capture the AFC North and secure the number two seed in the AFC. Lamar has a big game with over 400 yards of total offense.
That puts the Ravens at 12-5, which I actually believe might be their floor. I could see them beating either the Packers or Rams at home and possibly winning both Steelers games. But as of today, I don't think that will be the case. I feel pretty confident in my prediction, but I also would not be completely shocked with 14-3 either. As many warts as the Ravens have, they still find ways to pull out wins. But if I had to bet your money, 12-5 and the second seed in the AFC is where I would lay it.
Trade Deadline Amusement: I couldn't help but laugh the past two weeks or so over the tweets, articles and radio station commentary surrounding, 'What move does EDC have up his sleeve for the trade deadline?' Was it going to be an OT, RB or an edge rusher? And the entire time, there was only one right answer: NOTHING!
I laughed at the notion of the Ravens making a trade for a number of reasons. One, with what money were they going to acquire anyone? As of now, they have roughly $1.1 million in cap space. So unless they started reworking contracts, the cap space really wasn't there. Now sure, they could create some space by doing a player for player trade. Which brings up my second reason why a trade would not happen. Who on the Ravens roster do you realistically think could have been traded?
Miles Boykin? Probably.
James Proche? Maybe.
Ty'Son Williams / Devonta Freeman / Le'Veon Bell? One of the three, sure.
Josh Oliver? OK, but I doubt it.
Maybe, just maybe, Geno Stone or Ar'darius Washington?
And that is probably the list. And what kind of return do you think any of them would have brought? I can tell you it was not a starting caliber offensive tackle or a game changing running back. It most certainly wasn't a guy who could produce 5-6 sacks the rest of the year or a decent outside cornerback. So, the player for player trade was always out.
Then there was the idea that the Ravens could trade one of their four fourth round picks. Well that was never happening, either. The Ravens are the anti-Rams when it comes to trading draft picks. I personally think they over value draft picks, but that's just me. Obviously, they weren't going to trade a top three round pick. So that was where the idea of trading a 4th rounder came into play.
Now what exactly do you think a fourth round would get? For comparison purposes, the Ravens trade Ben Bredeson and a fifth round pick to the Giants for a fourth. Last time I checked, no one is screaming how much they miss Bredeson or how much better the line could be with him here.
They could have traded a sixth and got someone like Melvin Ingram who has a whopping 10 tackles and one sack so far on the year. The point I am getting at is this: They had no money, no trade pieces and were not going to give up draft picks for a rental. It was all just a wish that was never going to come true.
Second half musings: The Ravens aren't technically halfway through their schedule, but it's close enough after the bye. Some thoughts/storylines/concerns to keep an eye on over the last 10 games.
Will Marlon Humphrey return to his 2020 form? In all honesty, I love Marlon. He is probably my favorite Raven. But he just isn't having the best year. After getting torched for over 200 yards against Ja'Marr Chase, the schedule does not get any easier. Assuming he will draw the assignment against all the number one receivers going forward, here is what is in store: Justin Jefferson, Dionte Johnson/Chase Claypool, Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods, Johnson and Claypool. That is pretty daunting.
Prior to the Bengals game, Wink didn't have his CB shadow opposing WR, instead just leaving them on one side of the field. Humphrey shadowed Chase and we saw what happened. Let's see what happens going forward. Either way, it would help the Ravens tremendously if he returned to his 2020 form.
Does the run game get back on track? Latavius Murray, when healthy, is the team's best running back. I have seen enough of Le'Veon Bell. And if they aren't going to run Ty'Son Williams, which I think they should, then give Nate McCrary a shot. Either way, it would be nice to see the presence of a decent run game again. Part of the problem is they don't give any running back the chance to get in rhythm with as much changing in and out that they do. Let Murray get 15-18 touches a game and get that threat back in the offense.
What happens with the offensive line? The line is pretty much held together by bubble gum and duct tape. The question is how long is Patrick Mekari out for? And in his absence, who starts at right tackle? Is it Tyree Phillips or someone currently on the practice squad, like James Carpenter or Cedric Ogbuehi? Do they leave Alejandro Villanueva at left tackle rest of the year and how well does he hold up? The line ultimately will probably determine how the Ravens go the rest of the year. I know one thing; Lamar can't keep getting constant pressure and sacked five times a game.
Will Wink get the defense together? The Ravens, through seven games, are allowing an average of 418 yards and 27 points per game and are just the third team ever to allow three 400 yard passers in the first seven games of a season. That is just unheard of around these parts. So what does Wink do to correct that? We will see right out of the gate on Sunday against Minnesota what kind of adjustments or new schemes Wink created over the bye.
Re-enforcements are on the way! Looks like Nick Boyle will make his season debut this Sunday, which will help in both the passing and run game. Chris Westery and Derek Wolfe were both designated to return from the I.R. which means they should make their returns sometime in the next three weeks. And while he has been back for two games already, I am excited to see if Rashod Bateman's role expands in the offense after the bye. Plus, Sammy Watkins and Latavius Murray both have a chance to play on Sunday vs. Minnesota.
| Wednesday November 3, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2628 |
the contrast of sports
I couldn't help but notice the amazing contrast in the world of sports on Tuesday.
The Atlanta Braves won the baseball title last night, their first victory of that kind since 1999. Atlanta finished off the Houston Astros in six games with a 7-0 win in Houston.
Fans filled the Braves' stadium, sat on blankets in the middle of the outfield, even, and also gathered outside of the stadium to join in the revelry. It reminded this author of a night on 33rd Street back in 1983 when a bunch of guys in Glen Burnie piled in Chris Evans' old station wagon and drove to Memorial Stadium to catch a glimpse of the Orioles arriving back in Baltimore after beating the Phillies for the world championship in Game 5 in Philadelphia.
There's something about a baseball celebration or hockey celebration that's different than, say, a football celebration. A football season is arduous, no doubt, but it's essentially five months long and the games are so spread out along the way that you get the chance to catch your breath throughout the season.
Baseball and hockey (and basketball, too) don't afford the enthusiastic supporter much of an opportunity to relax and claim a second wind. There's a game today and tomorrow. And the next day, too. In baseball, there's almost a game every day. They cram 82 hockey games into a 7-month regular season. There's not much room for down time in either sport.
Perhaps that's why the celebrations in those sports are so wild. There's a release, if you will, of six or seven months of energy that built up with every game, every win, every loss, every comeback, and every outcome of the season. The people in Atlanta last night have been longing for a championship celebration like that since 1999.
In Baltimore, we've had two football titles to celebrate from a sports standpoint and not much more. If not for the Ravens winning in 2001 and 2013, we'd be closing in on 40 years without a victory parade. That's a lot longer than 1999-2021. Alas, the Ravens delivered for us. Now we're just waiting on the Orioles.
But I couldn't help but think of another situation in sports last night as I saw Freddie Freeman snag the throw at first base in the bottom of the 9th inning and put the Braves into the winner's circle.
The story out of Las Vegas that started to surface late Tuesday morning was grim indeed. Henry Ruggs III, the talented wide receiver for the Raiders, was involved in a horrific car accident early Tuesday that resulted in the death of a young woman who was driving a vehicle struck from behind by Ruggs.
Ruggs was apparently under the influence of alcohol at the time of the crash. The wide receiver "showed signs of impairment" according to the police report.
He now faces a felony charge of driving under the influence of alcohol, which, in Nevada, could result in a prison sentence of up to 20 years.
In Atlanta, people celebrated a sports victory.
In Las Vegas, a young woman lost her life because a sports figure was apparently driving under the influence. And his life has now changed forever due to a momentary lack of judgment.
Every NFL player has the opportunity, through an agreement with the NFLPA, to call a 1-800 number that will dispatch a vehicle to pick them up should they be out and about somewhere and have too much to drink. There's no excuse for driving under the influence of alcohol, of course. We all know that. But the NFL has gone out of its way to eliminate any and all excuses. The Raiders, as a franchise, also have a similar policy in place for their players. They will send a vehicle for any player and at any time, no questions asked.
On social media Tuesday, there were varying opinions cast about regarding Ruggs and the concept of sympathy and forgiveness. It's important to note, because it's how our founding fathers built the country a long time ago, that Ruggs is not yet guilty of anything. He deserves and will get his day in court, at which point his guilt or innocence will be determined. This is not meant to suggest he deserves any kind of special consideration because he's a good football player. This is meant to say, simply, that like any other citizen in the country, Henry Ruggs III deserves his day in court and the process will then determine what happens him to next.
There were opinions on Tuedsay calling for empathy and sympathy for Ruggs, in addition to people clamoring for him to face the harshest penalty the law will allow. The notion that anyone could be sympathetic for Ruggs seems outlandish. And while there is a difference between sympathy and empathy, even the idea of empathy for Ruggs seems out of place given the result of the car accident he was apparently responsible for causing.
But then you remember the phrase first authored by the English evangelical preacher, John Bradford, in the mid 1550's: "There but for the grace of God, go I."
Henry Ruggs III didn't go out on Monday night hoping, expecting or even remotely thinking about what was going to happen to him at 3:30 am on Tuesday morning. When he got in his car on Monday evening, he was a star football player for the Las Vegas Raiders. A few hours later, he was apparently responsible for causing the death of a young woman. Life changes quickly, often times in ways we weren't expecting or hoping it would.
And those kinds of dramatic changes could happen to any of us. Whether it's health-related, work-related or just everyday-life-related, things happen along the way that we never knew would happen. Some of those things happen without any cause and some of those we, ourselves, create. Either way, things happen in life that we didn't foresee taking place.
"There but for the grace of God, go I."
If you're a believer in prayer, please pray for the woman who was killed in Las Vegas on Tuesday, along with her family. And please pray for Mr. Ruggs, as well, and the passenger in his vehicle, a young lady who was with him in the vehicle he was driving. Everyone's life changed on Tuesday and not for the better.
And remember, please, while you're judging Henry Ruggs III for his mistake, the words of John Bradford: "There but for the grace of God, go I."
A celebration in Houston and Atlanta and a tragedy in Las Vegas. The contrast of sports and life. All in one day.
golf and nfl analytics
This is the second in my articles on the impact of data analytics on sport.
I'm not sure all of this is analytics, per se, or simply far superior statistical and shot measurement. I suppose what you call it doesn't particularly matter in the end. The fact is golf has undergone a seismic shift in how it is consumed, tracked, taught and played over the last 20 years due to the increased presence of data and technology.
The PGA Tour invested heavily in it's Shotlink platform in the early 2000's. Slowly, the data became widely available and used in development of new statistics and tracking metrics. Now, Shotlink allows fans and players alike to track EVERY single shot hit by EVERY single player in a field.
This data is more specific, more granular and provides a more color on how a player is playing. Coaches and players can easily hone in on areas of weakness and assess what needs to be improved. It allows fans to see where players are separating themselves from their opponents.
The data has trickled down to amatuer players allowing them to do the same measurement of their golf games. I currently track my data in every round and am able to compare individual rounds or sets of rounds to varying handicap indexes. In other words, I can compare my data sets to data sets of scratch golfers and see where my game falls short on a relative basis.
There will always be variations from average but the ability to quickly identify specific data points allows me to communicate that with my instructor. This is being done by golfers across the world from the best professionals to weekend hackers.
In addition to all of this shot level data, the introduction of TrackMan has been a massive shift in how players and coaches obtain feedback. TrackMan is a computer/machine that provides all of the data on the strike of a ball including clubhead speed, ball spin rate, ball speed, etc. Modern ball flight laws make the assumptions of past players and teachers seem juvenile.
The way we were taught to hit shots in the pre TrackMan days were often exactly incorrect. TrackMan revealed the physics in a golf swing that the naked eye simply can not detect or see.
Now, TrackMan, or one of the competing launch monitors, are table stakes for any professional trying to make a living teaching the game. To be sure, there is still immense value in being able to diagnose and communicate the why and how of a student's golf swing. In fact, that is what separates a good teaching pro from a not so good one.
The ability to sift through all the data, focus on the relevant issues and communicate that clearly to the student is what the best teachers do.
When Bryson DeChambeau decided to bulk up and change how he approached the game, he did it with data. Like him or not, the data, largely from Shotlink and Trackman, is what he focused on. Using the Shotlink data, Bryson and his instructor focused on what they thought would be largest achievable gains,namely added distance.
Given that goal, he set to work on his strength via strength training and diet, his clubhead speed through various methods and ultimately saw a MASSIVE increase in clubhead speed. In 2019, his average recorded swing speed on tour was ~118mph. In the just completed season, his average recorded swing speed was ~132mph. Each mph increase in swing speed correlates to roughly 2 to 2.5 yards of carry.
So, in his case, Bryson's 14mph increase in speed correlates into roughly 25-30 more yards of distance in just 2 years (in reality his distance gains are on the low end of the range likely due to not hitting the ball quite as efficiently as previously).
Of course, Bryson's focus on strength and speed has apparently taken his focus off of other areas. Specifically, his wedges have suffered the most. He ranked 178th last season in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards. For an elite player that isn't great. For reference, in 2018 he ranked 82nd in that same category.
While that is a large range of yardages, it represents wedge play primarily and I suspect this will be the area that he and his instructor, Chris Como, focus on. With the number of wedges he will hit given his prodigious length, even being average with his wedges will make him better.
Golf, like all endeavors, is a constant yin and yang of improvement here impacting one area of the game while neglecting another area. The players that manage that best will meet with the most success long term.
Improved Golf Experience?
Does all of this tech and data improve the general golf experience? I think it has. More than ever before, players have the tools at their fingertips. Commentators have access to what is actually going on on the course instead of just conjecture. Golf is more popular now than at any time in the post Tiger era.
People are excited to see Tour players hitting it further and further. Walk onto any driving range and you will see players trying to replicate the long game they see on TV.
I didn't even touch on advancements in golf strategy and mindset. That area is exploding and allows players to digest courses without even stepping on the course. Younger players are better and more prepared than ever before. Young player's games mature at a faster pace when they understand why they do certain things.
I'm not sure there has ever been a larger crop of good young players on the various professional tours. They come wave after wave and season after season. The days of a grinder getting by and making a nice living just based on feel and experience are slowly fading. At some point they simply won't be a hindrance to the younger, more powerful, more mentally prepared players. I think that time is coming VERY QUICKLY.
If you are bored by numbers and how they are used in calculating statistics, you may want to gloss over what follows.
Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SGOTT)
As requested by George and others here at #DMD, here is a primer on Strokes Gained Off The Tee to hopefully better explain what it is, why it is such an advancement in statistics and why it is looked to as a far better metric than anything previously available.
But first a review of the statistical measurements that were primarily used prior to all of this data availability. As far as driving, the two primary statistics were Fairways Hit and Driving Distance. Both were (and still are) fraught with problems in that they don't really tell us much about the quality of the shots hit.
Fairways hit is probably one of the more meaningless numbers available (except perhaps total putts). The statistic is a binary measure of balls ending up in the fairway. The statistic provides no nuance to the quality of the shot relative to others.
For example, suppose Drew and I are playing. Drew hits a really good drive 280 yards right down the middle. Perfect tee ball. I don't like the look of the hole and decide to hit a 3 wood off the tee. Maybe I pop it up a bit 225 in the right side of the fairway. Not a very good shot but in the fairway nonetheless.
Statistically, we both record the shot as a fairway hit and, at least as far as that statistic is concerned, there is no difference in our shots. However, the reality is that Drew is 55 yards closer to the hole and, at least from an expectations perspective, he will beat my brains in with a 55 yard advantage.
So the driving distance stat will solve that disparity, right Stats Nerd? Not really. The PGA Tour's driving distance stat measures distance only on 2 holes per round. The tour tries to measure it on par 5s or long, open par 4s that players will likely hit driver on.
They also try to pick holes that go in opposite directions to counteract the effect of wind, elevation changes, etc. But that is the extent of it; 8 drives over a 4 round tournament. The measurement also doesn't distinguish between driving it straight or not. It's not hard to see that this is a pretty poor way to collect data.
In the above example, the hole Drew and I hit on may not even be one of the measuring holes. We may get to a measuring hole and he hits the same drive, 280 yards in the fairway. This time I hit one 290 yards but in thick, heavy rough. On the stat sheet, my drive looks better but in all likelihood, Drew's ball gives him a better score expectation. So this is another old school statistic that has a lot of problems with it and doesn't tell a full story.
Thus was born SGOTT. This measure determines the quality of a tee shot RELATIVE to other players. That's all it does. So the player's actual drive is measured up against the appropriate data set to determine if the drive was better relative to the average of the data set (+SGOTT) or worse relative to the average of the data set (-SGOTT).
The factors determining the quality are the distance of the shot AND the playing surface the drive finds (fairway, rough, heavy rough, recovery situation, etc). Distance is the most important determinant of score. This shouldn't be arguable. A course that measures 6,500 yards will, on balance, show lower scores than a course that measures 7,200 yards.
Are there exceptions to this? Probably, but they are just that: exceptions. They are few and far between, particularly at the Tour level. We then add in the playing surface to provide additional color to the quality of the shot.
A tee ball that leaves 150 yards to the hole from the fairway is an objectively better tee ball than one that leaves 150 yards from the rough. I think all of the above assumptions make logical sense and are, of course, supported by the data.
Here is, I think, the easiest way to think about SG of any sort. Instead of thinking about par, think how much did this shot I just hit improve my expected score? If a shot decreases my expected score more than the actual 1 shot I hit: it was a +SG and vice versa. An example may make this easier to digest.
Suppose a tour player tees off on a 500 yard hole. The expected score on that hole is 4.35 (note a specific hole may have a slightly different expected score but the 4.35 is the score over a large historical sample for a hole of that distance). So that player hits the ball 335 yards right down the middle leaving him 165 yards from the hole.
So, it's a very good drive but how good is it? From 165 yards in the fairway the tour pros hole out in almost exactly 3.00 shots. Thus their expectation from 165 is 3.00 shots. So in this example the player's expected score has improved by 1.35 shots but he has only struck the ball once. Thus, his SGOTT on this hole is .35. That is, he has beaten the field by .35 shots on that tee shot.
You may think that doesn't sound like much? Well, if the player sees this much of a SGOTT on all 14 driving holes in a round he will have gained 4.9 shots over the field average! That would qualify as an-out-of-this-world driving round. Obviously, this doesn't happen on all 14 holes but that is how the statistic is counted. In fact, it is extremely rare that a player registers +2 SGOTT in successive rounds on the Tour.
That's all SGOTT is. It is meant to measure relative performance of a player against the average for that hole, round, week, season, etc. Nothing more and nothing less.
Because George asked specifically: no consideration is given to a shot that comes to rest in an old divot. Nor do I think there should be consideration given. Here's why:
* Included in the comparison data set are plenty of other's drives that also came to rest in a divot.
* There are plenty of other "rub of the green" situations that occur on virtually every tee shot. For example, the wind kicks up as you strike your shot and the ball goes 10 yards shorter than it normally would or the ball kicks off the back side of a mound and propels forward 15 yards more than normal, etc.
* Over a large sample these rub of the green issues should distribute normally over the entire field (ie over a large sample Player A and Player B should hit into divots with the same frequency).
* I'm not sure there would be enough data points of performance from divots, for example, from 100 yards vs. 150 yards. It does happen with some frequency but perhaps not enough to set any meaningful expectations. (this is just conjecture on my part)
Could the data be further parsed to account for some of these variables? I suppose it could but I think it would make the statistic more complicated than it needs to be. The important thing to consider is that these SG statistics give a far better representation of how a player is actually performing as compared to the older statistics. Will a better metric be developed in the future that makes SG seem antiquated? Entirely possible and perhaps likely.
For anyone interested in a more thorough understanding of Strokes Gained and all of it's iterations, I HIGHLY recommend reading Mark Broadie's seminal work, Every Shot Counts.
NFL Week 8
There were a few pretty terrible 4th down decisions made this past weekend including one by Tennessee's Mike Vrabel to punt on 4th and 4 with roughly 2 minutes left in a tied game from midfield (~-12% WP% punt). In the end, Carson Wentz went full 2020 Carson Wentz and turned it over at the goal line. This led to one of the more bizarre finishes in regulation and ultimately in overtime from the weekend.
In full "HOLD MY BEER" fashion (Google it if you don't know the reference), the Denver Broncos and Harbaugh's former-friend/assistant Vic Fangio orchestrated arguably the worst drive from a time management perspective ever. Let's all bask in the glory of this absolute cluster of a series.
First the scene:
* The score is 24-17, Denver leads Washington Football Team with 37 seconds left in the game.
* WFT has all 3 time outs
* Denver has the ball on their own 22 yard line.
First Down: RB for 1 yard...fumbles! Denver recovers and WFT uses their first timeout.
(OK ,whatever, it happens -- but they gotta be smart here. Fangio should probably drill into them the importance of ball security in a late-game situation like this one.)
Second Down: Denver rolls Bridgewater to the right ostensibly to slide and waste a few seconds. Instead, he passes it to someone not really even open (and maybe out of bounds?) and the ball falls incomplete.
(I don't know if Bridgewater went off script but what is happening here? You're throwing the ball?)
Third Down: RB up the middle and HE FUMBLES! WFT BALL!
(I mean this is Mark Sanchez-butt-fumble-ineptitude here over the course of 3 plays.)
Fortunately, WFT is awful and Denver strolled off the field with the "win". But over the course of 3 plays the following occurred:
- The ball was on the ground twice
- The QB decided to throw the ball for….reasons?!?
- WFT was forced to use only 1 of their 3 timeouts
- Only 16 seconds ran off the clock
For a coach likely to be on the hot seat, this was not a good 5 minutes of football.
| Tuesday November 2, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2627 |
one injury later...
Because NFL owners are greedy and they're playing a 17-game schedule this year, there isn't a rock-solid, dead-in-the-middle halfway point of the 2021 campaign.
But we're basically there right now. A smattering of teams haven't played 8 games yet (Ravens among them) while a lot of teams have now played 8 of their 17.
So this is about as close to halfway home as we'll get, and with yesterday's news that the Titans are going to be without Derrick Henry for a while -- presumably at least the rest of the regular season if not longer -- the AFC playoff picture is now completely up in the air with roughly half of the campaign remaining.
Here's a quick snapshot of the contenders and pretenders in the AFC --
Tennessee (6-2) -- Would have been the favorite -- well, my favorite, anyway -- to win the AFC if not for Henry's injury. Now...they have a real fight on their hands. Their schedule isn't all that difficult (automatic wins remaining against the Texans (2), Jaguars, 49'ers and Dolphins) so it's likely they'll still win the division at 11-6, but Super Bowl hopes were probably thinned out with the Henry injury.
Buffalo (5-2) -- Will move into the "favorite" position now that Henry is out in Nashville. Buffalo's offense is decent enough but their defense has put together three nice games against three lousy opponents (Miami twice and the Texans, a combined 11 points allowed in those three games). Whether their defense can play "up" against better teams in January remains to be seen. They still have the Patriots twice as well as games at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, but they're looking like a 12 or 13 win team at this point.
Las Vegas (5-2) -- An unknown commodity at this point, with a win over the Ravens to start the season and not much else. Their offense is certainly worth respecting. Their second half schedule is fairly difficult, with two games remaining against K.C., road games at Dallas and Cleveland, plus a game in Las Vegas against the Bengals in a few weeks. Looking like a 10 win team at this point, 11 max.
Baltimore (5-2) -- The AFC's version of Jekyll and Hyde. Good one half, lousy the next half. Offense seems to be their strength and defense seems to be their weakness, which is really weird for a Ravens team. Their schedule isn't all that difficult, but the four games remaining against Cleveland and Pittsburgh will likely determine their fate into January. They need to stockpile wins now, because their final three (@Cincy, home vs. LA, home vs. Pittsburgh) will be critically important. If they can't defend any better than they have in the first 7 games, they won't go far in January. Should be able to reach 12 or 13 wins barring any major injuries moving forward.
Cincinnati (5-3) -- It's remarkable how one loss poisoned them, but everyone who was on the Bengals after they shellacked the Ravens two weeks ago is suddenly off of them now following that defeat to the Jets on Sunday. Whether the Bengals really are a contender can be argued, but what can't debated is the difficulty of their schedule; they have Cleveland twice, the Steelers and Ravens once, the Chiefs (in Cincy) and the Raiders and Broncos away. Las Vegas is still trying, while Denver has given up, obviously. No matter, though, they're going to be hard pressed to win 11 games, which will seemingly be the magic number in the AFC. If the Bengals team that beat Baltimore is the "real" Cincinnati team, 11 or 12 wins will be their reach. But if the team that lost to the Jets is the real Bengals side, they won't get to 11 wins.
Los Angeles (4-3) -- Prior to their visit to Baltimore last month, the Chargers were flying high. Now...they're flying low, having lost to the Ravens and Patriots sandwiched around their bye week. We were bullish on L.A. earlier this year but it looks like they were a paper tiger. The schedule plays out in their favor, somewhat, as they have the Broncos (twice), Giants and Texans (both at home), plus games they should win at home vs. Pittsburgh and Minnesota. If they're actually any good at all, they'll still figure out a way to get to 11 wins over their last 10 games. At this point, though, 11 wins is about the max you can expect from them.
Pittsburgh (4-3) -- Do not be swayed by anything you've seen from these guys. They are not any good. They're getting by with a decent-to-good defense and a fairly benign schedule thus far. They get two more home lay-ups in the next two weeks (Chicago and Detroit) and then their schedule really toughens up. They won't reach 10 wins. Have no fear. The Steelers aren't going anywhere in January except to the golf course once they get roasted in Baltimore on January 9.
Cleveland (4-4) -- Something's not right in Cleveland. Injuries have derailed them, like a lot of teams, but they're also not getting the production out of Beckham and Landry they assumed they'd be getting. Couple that with Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury and you have an offense that's just not all that dangerous. Their defense is solid enough and Myles Garrett can end your team's season with one hit on your quarterback, but the Browns do not appear to be a team worth fearing this season. 10 wins seems to be their max and that's a pretty big "if" at this point. Their remaining schedule is very tough.
Kansas City (4-4) -- Wanna know about the Chiefs? They beat the Giants last night, in Kansas City, 20-17, and needed a field goal with 1:07 remaining just to do that. Their defense is pitiful. And Patrick Mahomes is finally having a "back to earth" season after leading a charmed life for three years. And get this, Kansas City's schedule is so difficult moving forward that they seriously might not make the playoffs. They have Green Bay and Dallas (both in K.C.) plus road games at the Chargers, Bengals and Raiders. Their only schedule gift? Two automatic wins vs. Denver. The Chiefs might not get to 10 wins. 11 wins seems almost impossible at this point given what we've seen and what they face. But, still, the Chiefs are also a team you'd prefer not to face in January if they somehow do sneak into the post-season. Because on any given day, Mahomes and his offensive weapons could sync up and throw 40 on you.
As for the Ravens, specifically, they should be able to reach 12 wins without much worry. If they somehow stub their toe against the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins or Bears, that could swing them from a 12-13 win team to a 10-11 win team, but it's unlikely they'll lose to any of those ne'er do wells. Their toughest remaining games are at home vs. Green Bay and the Rams and away trips to Cincy and Cleveland. But the Baltimore defense has been so flimsy and yards-yielding that you have to be concerned any time they face a team that can put points on the board.
Their 2021 success is tied into three things, directly:
1. Lamar's health -- If Jackson stays healthy and plays the entire season, the Ravens are making the playoffs and will contend for the AFC North crown as well. That's a done deal. If he gets nicked up and misses some time...then...all bets are off. He's their #1 weapon, priority and reason for winning. The problem is, Jackson and Jackson alone can get them a division title and a trip to the post-season but they probably can't win three games in January (and February) with only Lamar performing at his expected level.
2. Running game improvement -- Everyone knew the team would be impacted with the loss of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but I'm not sure we knew it would be this bad. If the Ravens can't run the ball well in the season's second half, their Super Bowl hopes are all but gone. There's still time for Eric DeCosta to make a trade (today's the deadline) but without some new blood, the club is going to have pin their hopes on guys like Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray. And, well, those three used to be good running backs in the league. But they're on their 17th hole now. Somehow, the Ravens have to run the ball better over their last 10 games.
3. Marlon Humphrey needs to step up -- This is a big one, because we're conceding that the Baltimore pass rush isn't going to materialize over the last two months of the regular season. Without guys pressuring the quarterback, the secondary becomes ultra-important. Humphrey has had an uncharacteristic sloppy start to his '21 season. Tackling has been poor, coverage hasn't been much better and, in general, the former #1 pick just hasn't played very well for whatever reason. The Baltimore defense is suspect enough without their best player having an off year. Humphrey should spend less time on Twitter and more time in the film room. His play in the final 10 games will be critical for the Ravens.
the streak -- writers
As we approach our 2,633rd consecutive edition of #DMD (next Monday, November 8), I feel it appropriate to recognize those people who have been regular or occasional contributors here since we started on August 25, 2014.
One of the first guys who came on board with me back in the start-up days was Bo Smolka, who became a friend during my radio years and is one of the area's most respected sports media members still today. You can find his outstanding work at PressBox as their Ravens "beat writer". Bo was our go-to-Ravens-guy in the early days of #DMD and did an outstanding job.
Our current Ravens writer, John Darcey, follows every snap, every week and provides excellent analysis of the wins and losses. He is just beginning his role here at #DMD but we're excited to have him as part of our writing stable.
Matt Carroll was our soccer writer in the start-up days and also provided a wealth of knowledge, particularly when it came to the English Premier League, which I barely follow myself. Our current soccer writer, Randy Morgan, is also an incredible source of knowledge. You can find his work at #DMD every Tuesday. His role here will be very important next winter when the U.S. (hopefully) plays in the World Cup.
Our columnists have all been outstanding; Brien Jackson, David Rosenfeld and Mark Suchy. Each of them brought a different perspective, both in their interests and writing styles. On a personal note, Mark is taking a winter-break from writing here so he can devote time to pursuing his number one passion; following the college basketball travels of his sons. We'll miss him over the next few months but look forward to seeing him return in the spring.
Our newest contributor, "The Stats Nerd", has allowed #DMD to focus on an area we were otherwise ignoring. Data, analysis and the use of statistics has become the rage in professional sports over the last five years. We're happy to have "The Stats Nerd" on our team to help us all learn more about the thought process that goes into (or doesn't) critical in-game decisions. His weekly piece generally runs on Wednesday here.
We've been blessed to have Dale Williams as our Maryland basketball writer for the last six seasons. I'll put his knowledge of basketball up against anyone, anywhere. And his supreme knowledge of Maryland basketball makes him a perfect fit for our coverage needs here at #DMD. You'll start seeing his work here for the '21-22 season later this month.
And even though he doesn't write as much as we'd like him to, we have always appreciated the contributions of my friend George McDowell, who always looks at things through a different lens than the rest of us. George has also been the back-room "engine" of #DMD throughout the streak. Without George, there's no pursuit of 2,633, trust me.
So we thank all of those individuals who have been contributors here since August 25, 2014. They're the reason you visit the site and come back as often as you do. Like you and I, they're just people who love sports and enjoy writing about it.
And, as always, I offer you an open invitation to reach out to me if you're interested in writing here. If you have a specific topic you'd like to discuss with me, please send along an e-mail: 18inarow@gmail.com.
We've never really had an official "Orioles writer", oddly enough. I guess it's because no one really watches them play much any longer, so most of the day-to-day Orioles coverage falls on me. But if you'd like to craft a regular (weekly, twice weekly?) Orioles column here at #DMD, I'm excited to hear from you.
Thanks again to all of our outstanding writers over the last seven-plus years.
usmnt stock report
It was an important week for a few Americans fighting for spots on the US roster for the fast approaching November qualifiers against Mexico and Jamaica. A couple Americans helped their teams pull off big upsets in Europe this week. Two young players made history in Italy, and back in the US, another was a key contributor on a record setting day in MLS.
Stock Up --
The top performer this week was midfielder Weston McKennie. The Texas native had a big week individually despite his team's struggles. McKennie started for Juventus against Sassuolo in their midweek Serie A game. He scored the only goal for Juventus with a well placed header off a free kick in the second half but the team came up short in a 2-1 loss. In addition to the goal he created several good chances in attack. McKennie found the ball often as the most active of the Juventus midfield trio.
On Saturday, McKennie came off the bench in the second half with Juventus down 2-0 to Hellas Verona. He made an instant impact on the game, eventually finding the back of the net. Late in the half, McKennie found a pocket of space at the top of the box, received a pass on the turn and fired a shot in the upper corner past the keeper. Once again it was the only goal for Juventus as they dropped another game 2-1. Juventus is in a bad slump and has fallen well behind the pace for the Serie A title and Champions League places. Despite that, McKennie's hot streak is good news for the US, who will need him on the top of his game against Mexico in just over a week.
While McKennie maintained his place as a locked-in starter for the US, others helped their case for a spot on the roster with impressive weeks. 23 year old midfielder, Luca de la Torre, got a brief appearance for the US in October and has been making a good argument for more time with his performances for his club Heracles in the Dutch Eredivisie. On Saturday he got a big test against league leaders and one of the hottest teams in the world, Ajax. The American started in central midfield and helped his team get a draw in a huge upset against an Ajax team that has been destroying every opponent of late. De la Torre demonstrated good control in tight spaces, with a deft touch on the ball and accurate and incisive passing. Heracles didn't have much of the ball, but they were disciplined in defense and de la Torre sparked several counters with intelligent passes.
In Germany, Joe Scally continues to build his case for a spot as one of the fullbacks for the US. He was a disappointing omission in October, but has been a fixture for Borussia Moenchengladbach in the German Bundesliga all season, earning high praise from his club coach. He started at right wing back in their German Cup match against the current top team in the world, Bayern Munich. Scally held up well against Bayern's daunting left side of Alphonso Davies and Leroy Sane, helping Gladbach to a shocking 5-0 blowout of the German champions.
Over the weekend he started at right back and delivered the assist for the first goal in a 2-1 win over VFL Bochum in the Bundesliga. Scally hit a nice bending cross from the right wing that landed perfectly for his teammate to head it home. He poured in several more dangerous crosses throughout the game and held up well defensively. The 18 year old plays both physically and mentally well beyond his age and should be a valuable depth piece for the US going forward.
In MLS, Jesus Ferreira added two more solid performances to his resume. The FC Dallas attacker was impressive in both a 2-1 loss to Real Salt Lake on Wednesday and a 2-1 win over Austin on Saturday. Ferreira has been the key creative player in the Dallas offense over the second half of the season, scoring a goal in the win on Saturday. He could be a depth option for the US either on the wing or at striker.
Finally, there was some good news off the field on Monday. Chelsea coach Thomas Tuchel confirmed that Christian Pulisic will return to the Chelsea squad for their Champions League game this week. A key development that is great news for his availability for the US against Mexico and Jamaica. It now should just be a matter of building up his stamina to see if he will be ready for a full game by November 12th.
Stock Down --
Josh Sargent and Norwich continued to struggle this week. Sargent has failed to deliver much in attack for a poor Norwich team, which lost again this weekend to Leeds and now sits at the bottom of the Premier League. It's a difficult situation for Sargent, who does not get much service on the overmatched team. The lack of production will make it hard for him to earn his way back into the picture with the US team.
Matthew Hoppe had a disappointing week in Spain. He was left on the bench for both of Mallorca's games this week. It was not completely clear if he was sitting out due to performance or a minor injury. Either way it doesn't bode well for his chances of snatching one of the last spots on the roster against Mexico.
Stock Even --
Matt Turner maintained his status as the top US goalkeeper. He delivered a standout performance, keeping a clean sheet in New England's 1-0 win over the Colorado Rapids. Turner came up with one highlight reel diving save to preserve the win, which secured the best overall record in MLS history for this New England team. He will look to carry that momentum into the big showdown with Mexico in World Cup qualifying.
Several other Americans delivered solid if not spectacular performances for their clubs this week. Gianluca Busio and Tanner Tessman became the first pair of Americans to ever start for the same team in Italy's Serie A, helping Venezia to a 0-0 draw on the road against Genoa. Brenden Aaronson, John Brooks, Konrad de la Fuente and Tyler Adams all helped their teams to earn positive results this week as well.
Tuesday brings another round of Champions League games with many of the US players looking to get on the field. Those will likely be the final chance for players to impress Gregg Berhalter before the rosters are announced for the November qualifiers.
| Monday November 1, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2626 |
the countdown...is on
I've never run a marathon, so I'm speaking about this from a complete lack of real experience.
We're now seven days away from publishing our 2,633rd consecutive issue of #DMD and I feel like we're at mile marker #24 in a 26 mile marathon. There's still a little bit of running to do, but God willing, we're gonna see this thing through to completion. I mean, if you've run 24 miles, you're almost a certainty to finish all 26, right?
Next Monday, November 8, we'll publish for the 2,633rd straight day. If you're a Baltimore sports fan, I assume you know the significance of 2,633.
We have some special stuff planned for 2,622 and 2,633 around here. I don't want to spoil the surprise, of course, but let's just say I think you'll find those two days especially interesting. Even the curmudgeons who hang around here will likely enjoy themselves. That's saying something, huh?
There's still work to be done, obviously. God willing we'll be back here tomorrow to keep the streak going and then, hopefully, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Next Sunday will be day 2,632. And on Monday -- blare the trumpets for day 2,633.
Our sneakers are showing some wear and tear but mile marker #26 is almost in sight. Stay with us this week as we take some looks down memory lane and then please join us early next week for the real fun.
Speaking of God -- as in "God willing" -- it was a treat to hear "God Bless America" last night during the 7th inning stretch in Atlanta.
As our country has become more and more afraid of God and faith in general over the last couple of decades, the powers-that-be have gone out of their way to try and remove God from our daily routine. Some schools still recite the Pledge of Allegiance, which is awesome, but others shy away from it for fear of offending folks.
Those of you who were listeners to my radio show will remember I started every morning at 6:07 by doing two things; playing "Raised on the Radio" by The Ravyns and reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. If it was good enough for me in 1969 at Glendale Elementary School, it was good enough for me in my 40's and 50's while I was working on the radio.
So hearing "God Bless America" last night was especially satisfying for me. I don't know about you, but I feel blessed by God every day. How else could you explain all of the great fortune I've received in my life, after all? It didn't happen by accident or because I drew a lucky number. God blesses all of us, every day, in different ways.
Keep on singing the song, I say, and may God continue to bless America.
Unfortunately, longtime Baltimore sports fans know all too well what the Atlanta sports community feels like this morning after the Braves squandered a chance to win the World Series at home last night. Houston battled back from a 4-0 first inning deficit to win Game 5, 9-5. Game 6 will be played Tuesday night in Houston. If Game 7 is necessary, it will be in Houston on Wednesday.
The Orioles, of course, had a chance to win the '71 World Series at Memorial Stadium, only to lose Game 7 to the Pirates, 2-1. In '79, also against the Pirates, the O's were up 3-games-to-1, lost Game 5 in Pittsburgh, then dropped Game 6 (4-0) and Game 7 (4-1) in Baltimore.
Losing any kind of playoff series leaves a bad taste, but having a chance to clinch at home and failing to do so is really a lousy way to go.
When the Braves went ahead 4-0 in the first inning last night on an Adam Duvall grand slam, you could just sense it was going to be a 3-hour party and a 9-2 win or something of that nature.
Instead, Houston scored twice in the 2nd and twice in the 3rd to tie it up, and even though the Braves went back ahead a couple of innings later on a Freddie Freeman home run, the Astros clobbered the Atlanta bullpen in the middle innings on their way to the 9-5 win.
Now, the same scenario faces the Astros in their stadium. They're either going to win it in front of their home faithful or lose it there. I don't have a horse in the race, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Braves win the title just because they haven't done it since 1995. The Astros are a game bunch, though, and Dusty Baker is one of those kind of guys that seemingly deserves good fortune. I don't care who wins, honestly.
But in 2026 when it's the Orioles and Phillies in the World Series, you can bet I'll cheering for Bawl-mer.
The NFL is, as we all know, completely nuts. Don't believe me? That's fine. Ask the Bengals. Or the Chargers. Heck, you can even ask Tom Brady, who got outdueled by Trevor Siemian on Sunday in New Orleans.
You don't have to google "Trevor Siemian". He played college football at Northwestern and was a 7th round pick of the Broncos in 2015. He is, what they call, a journeyman. And on Sunday, he beat Tom Brady.
The biggest shocker of the day was in New Jersey, where the Jets and the referees beat the Bengals, 34-31. Cincinnati certainly has no one to blame but themselves. Trying to win a 3rd straight road game (in three weeks), the Bengals, according to running back Joe Mixon, "came out flat and unprepared" in the loss to the Jets, who were 1-5 entering the game.
But a late game "helmet to helmet" call after a Jets' 3rd down play came up short of the first down marker was supremely important. Cincinnati went from getting the ball back with a couple of minutes left to watching the Jets chew up the clock and post the surprising win. The call, even to Jose Feliciano, was awful. If anything, the Jets receiver lowered his head into the Bengals defensive player as he went in for the tackle and 3rd down stop.
I have a close friend who is convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the league essentially pre-determines the winners and losers of their games. I always laugh when he says that and think it's impossible to orchestrate the outcome of every game, but when I see calls like that one yesterday in New York -- in the waning moments of a close game -- I admit it gives me reason to at least consider that my friend might be on to something on a game-by-game basis.
Are the Patriots legit or are the Chargers paper tigers? Maybe a little of both? New England went out to Los Angeles and evened their record at 4-4 with a 27-24 win over Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Don't look now, but the Patriots are firmly in the AFC playoff race at the sorta-kinda halfway point of the '21 season. Bill Belichick and Mac Jones? It might not be Belichick-Brady, but that duo looks like a winner-in-the-making.
More NFL craziness: The Cowboys beat the Vikings last night in Minnesota and Dallas didn't play Dak Prescott. Some dude named Cooper Rush was the QB for Dallas as they scored a late TD to beat Minnesota, 20-16.
Now watch Minnesota come to Baltimore next Sunday and play with their hair on fire and beat the Ravens 31-23.
Editor's note: I don't actually think that's going to happen next Sunday, but I'll also confess that I wouldn't place a wager on the Ravens (or Vikings) next Sunday. There's no telling what Vikings team will show up in Charm City.
Dallas, meanwhile, has to feel like they almost won two games last night without Prescott at the helm. And the Vikings have to be kicking themselves losing to a dude no one had heard of before Sunday evening.
I stumbled on a golf futures wager on Saturday that I couldn't resist. The investment was nominal ($100) and the payoff in 2026 would be 75-1 if I go five-for-five. I have five years to see the wager play out, from November 1, 2021 through October 31, 2026.
Here are the five wagering topics.
1. Will Tiger Woods compete in an officially-sanctioned PGA Tour event (this does not include the Hero World Challenge) and play at least 36 holes?
2. Will Phil Mickelson win at least one PGA Tour event (this does not include Champions Tour golf, only PGA Tour)?
3. Will Rory McIlroy win at least one major championship?
4. Will Dustin Johnson have more major championships (in total/career) than Justin Thomas? Johnson currently has two and Thomas currently has one.
5. Will Bryson DeChambeau win The Masters?
Here's how I wagered:
1. No. I don't see Woods playing again. I don't think he's physically capable of walking the golf course.
2. Yes. I'm not sure when or where, but Phil still has another win in him. Granted, the window is closing on Phil's career on the flat-belly tour, but he'll win one in '22 or '23.
3. Yes. Rory might even win one in '22. I think he's closer than people think.
4. No. I think Thomas will have as many or more than DJ.
5. Yes. I realize he hasn't played particularly well there early in his career, but Bryson will figure that place out soon enough.
| Sunday October 31, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2624 |
rewind...to those days when...
So, today's piece has become an annual part of Drew's Morning Dish.
I'm not 100% sure I've done it every year since we started with this project in 2014, but my sense is we probably have.
I make it a point, on the week of the Ravens bye, to author a column here about those days when every Sunday in football season was silent in Baltimore.
Some of you might be old enough -- like me -- to remember Mayflower vans pulling out on that snowy night.
You might recall the pain, and I'm talking deep down in the gut pain, that we all felt in Baltimore later that year when we saw our Colts, our Baltimore Colts, playing real, live games in Indianapolis.
Same uniforms. Same helmets. Same horseshoe. Heck, same players, even. Our Colts became their Colts. Overnight.
From 1984 through 1995 in Baltimore, Sunday felt like Saturday. There was football, in other words, but it wasn't played here. We didn't have a college team to call our own, with all due respect to the likes of Towson and Morgan State, and we didn't have a professional team, either. Football was played on Saturday, but not really in Baltimore. And football was played on Sunday, too, but not in Charm City.
The Ravens changed all of that, of course. And there are hundreds of thousands of Ravens fans in Baltimore right now who only know the Ravens. They don't know anything about the Colts, except that they play in Indianapolis. The Ravens are the only NFL team in Baltimore my son knows and will likely ever know. And that's a good thing, obviously.
But from 1984 through 1995, what you'll experience today is precisely what we all experienced in Baltimore. We experienced nothing. The rest of the country played football, games were on TV, scores were displayed, highlights were showcased and there were wins and losses. Every. Single. Sunday.
But not in Baltimore. We watched everyone else's team play.
I write this today simply to remind everyone -- including myself, even -- that we have the privilege of watching the Ravens. The Baltimore Ravens.
I understand people pay money for PSL's and tickets and jerseys and there's both a financial and spiritual investment that goes into supporting the Ravens. When they don't play well, people naturally want to lash out. I get it. It's sports. People forget the other team tries too and the other guys are also on scholarship. People lose sight of the fact that the rest of the head coaches spend 18 hours per-day at their facility just like John Harbaugh spends 18 hours per-day at 1 Winning Drive.
I'm not saying to ignore poor play by Lamar Jackson or bungled clock management by Harbaugh or a puzzling play call from Greg Roman. Those guys are paid to do a job and the expectation is that they will do it well. And when they don't, there's backlash.
But no matter what happens to the Ravens, it's all better than 1984 through 1995. It sounds stupid to say, but the Ravens could go 0-17 and it's still way, way, way better than 1984 through 1995. We've been blessed here in Baltimore. The early days of the Ravens were a bit of a challenge, but since 2000, the club has mostly been more-than-competitive and we have a pair of Super Bowl championships that Roger Goodell can never take away from us.
They took our team away from us once and it crushed our city's soul.
We have a team now and all of our lives have been touched in some way by the Baltimore Ravens.
Just remember that today when you're surfing through the afternoon games or watching the Sunday Night contest. Today is exactly what we all felt like from 1984 through 1995. Everyone else played. And Baltimore watched. It was awful.
Be thankful for Art Modell and Steve Bisciotti today. Be thankful that it's 2021 and Baltimore has a team to call our own.
no longer on deck
Today, after over 40 years in the golf world, Jim Deck is walking off the 18th green and putting his clubs away for good.
He's not quitting golf.
Deck, the longtime Head PGA Professional at Mount Pleasant and Pine Ridge, is retiring.
He will be missed. And the industry he has so faithfully served will lose one of their best.
Deck would tell you, I'm sure, that he shared a "strange and wonderful" relationship with me.
I'm strange. And he's wonderful.
He'd mostly be right on that one. While Deck tried to carry out his daily duties with tact and precision, I spent most of time working for him trying to sneak out and practice on the 5th hole or creating pranks designed to put off other staffers who were working the same shift as I was at Mount Pleasant.
I worked roughly 5 years for Deck on a part-time basis when I was playing my golf at Mount Pleasant. Somewhere in the 1995 through 2000 range, I'm guessing, although Deck's gray hairs could probably give you the exact dates.
I have far, far too many "Jim Deck stories" to publish here today and a large number of them had me doing something dumb anyway, so why bring them up for public consumption? But this one remains a favorite of mine, somewhat because it had a very happy conclusion and also because it showcased Deck's humor and empathy all in one story.
A few days before the 2000 Spring Publinx (this would have been late May or so), I was putting terribly. Now, I'll be the first to admit I probably wasn't putting as poorly as I actually thought, but nonetheless, I was having a tough time with the flat stick. In those days I putted with an Odyssey putter (which I still have, somewhere) and after a 3-putt on the 4th hole one afternoon, I put it in my bag and said, "I'm done with that putter."
I putted with my sand wedge for a hole or two. It wasn't much worse, mind you, which didn't say much about my putting skills or the Odyssey putter. On the 7th hole, I took out my driver, some sort of TaylorMade something or other, and rolled in a 10-footer. I practice putted a few more times on that 7th green, then proceeded to make another 10-footer on the 8th green with my driver. There was something about the way the ball rolled off the face of the driver that was comforting. Actually, it was just beginner's luck, but at the very least I thought I might be on to something. Have I fixed my putting woes, I wondered?
On the 9th green, I glanced over and saw Deck sitting in a golf watching our group. This time, I rolled in a 20-footer with my driver. My three playing partners were howling with laughter as we walked off the green.
"This guy's completely nuts," my friend Greg Ruark said to Deck as we put our putters in our bags on the golf carts.
"Now what?" Deck said.
"He's been putting with his driver for three holes and he's made three straight birdies," another friend, Jim Pappas, said.
"What????" Deck replied.
I looked at him sheepishly but laughing, still. "The great ones can putt with anythng, Pro," I stated.
"You're not going to putt with your driver in the Publinx this weekend," Deck demanded.
When you make three birdies in a row with anything you have to consider using it. "Sure I am," I said. "I can't putt any worse with it than I'm putting with my regular putter."
"No, you're not," Deck reiterated. "You look like a damn fool."
We moved on to the 10th tee and grabbed some food and drinks at the snack shack. Moments later, Deck appeared again, putter in hand.
"Use my putter," he said. "Just give it a try and see if it helps."
It was a Ben Crenshaw putter designed to look like the old Wilson 8802 style putter that was popular in the 60's and 70's. Ironically, it's the same style of putter that Phil Mickelson used this past May when he won the PGA at Kiawah.
"Really?" I said. "You'll let me use it this weekend?"
"Anything's better than watching you putt with your driver and making a fool of yourself," Deck said.
And wouldn't you know it, I won the Publinx that weekend at Clifton Park and Pine Ridge.
The following week, I saw Deck and he offered his congratulations.
"Now give me back my putter," he demanded. "You're not keeping it. I just wanted you to see that you can actually putt. But you can't have my putter."
"But I just won the Publinx with it," was my plea to him.
"I'll order you one and you can buy it. But you're not keeping my putter!"
I wound up ordering one and putting with it for a while but, like most other putters, it eventually lost its charm. I pulled it out of my shed last week when I heard about Deck's retirement party today at Pine Ridge and I think I'll take it along with me later this afternoon when I bid him farewell.
Jim Deck was a great golf professional. It seems weird to say "was", but he served his industry well and deserves to enjoy retirement. Hopefully he can make a lot of birdies now that he has more free time.
And if he ever needs a putting lesson...
go ahead and order the waterfall faucets
We're upgrading the beach house. I know one of the golden rules of home building is to not change plans midway through, but the way we're cleaning up with our weekly NFL picks has caused us to change lanes.
We called the builder last Monday and told him to scrap the plans for "traditional" faucets in the four bathrooms and go with the pricey, $400 waterfall faucets. We've included a photo below (right) to show how our tastes have improved following last weekend's 5-0 romp over the boys in Las Vegas.
It went so well last Sunday we thought we might get blocked today, but, no, they're going to take our money again. I hope they like the new faucets.
Let's go ahead and throw five more winners your way. Oh, I almost forgot. Some of you are way behind on your Silver Oak shipments to me. And don't forget, I don't want the Alexander Valley stuff. If you can't send along a bottle from Napa Valley, don't bother.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS (-3.0) -- I'll admit to being a bit worried about this one because it feels like the Falcons are due for a stinker and a division rival coming to town makes Atlanta ripe for an upset. I realize the Falcons are no good, but it sure feels like the Panters are in the beginning stages of a freefall that winds up giving them the 5th pick in next April's draft. We're going with Atlanta in this one and giving up the three points in a 27-20 Falcons victory.
49'ERS AT BEARS (+4.0) -- Huh? The 49'ers are 4-point road favorites? Over anyone? I must be missing something. I mean, I realize the Bears are nothing great, but San Francisco is worse than "nothing great". Maybe the 49'ers win, but I'd never bet them and give away four points in the process. We're obviously going with Chicago and gobbling up the four points at home. Just for kicks, we'll even say San Fran wins the game 22-20, but Chicago and the points is the play here.
STEELERS AT BROWNS (-4.0) -- This one's weird. Pittsburgh's lousy. The Browns are much better than their 4-3 record would otherwise indicate. But Cleveland's banged up and the Steelers are trying to tread water long enough to get the refs to throw a flag or two their way late in the game and make it interesting. There's nothing about this game that says "Pittsburgh's gonna win" which is precisely why we feel like the Steelers might wind up stealing this one in overtime. We're taking the Steelers and the four points and we'll call it a 16-13 Pittsburgh triumph in overtime.
TITANS AT COLTS (-2.5) -- This is definitely a "prove it game" for the Colts. Are they actually a legit contender for the AFC South? If they are, today's the day they get the chance to prove it. The Titans, meanwhile, can kill two birds with one stone and perch themselves comfortably on top of the division while giving Indianapolis the Cleat of Reality in the process. We have to buy stock in one of these teams -- and we're buying Titans stock and taking Tennessee and the 2.5 points in a 33-23 win on the road.
PATRIOTS AT CHARGERS (-4.5) -- Another dicey game to play, mostly because it *feels* like New England is perhaps finding a bit of a mini-groove with Mac Jones at the helm. And, as we saw a couple of weeks ago in Baltimore when they got taken to the woodshed, there's no telling which version of the Chargers shows up today in Los Angeles. We have a feeling about this one. New England leads the whole time, looks destined to cover easily, but Los Angeles scores a late touchdown to turn the whole thing upside down. We're going with the Chargers to show themselves today in a 30-24 win.
BEST BET OF THE DAY -- We'll take the Bears at home plus 4.0 points as our Best Bet this week. We're just not believers in Jimmy G. and the 49'ers at all.
LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 5-0
OVERALL THIS SEASON: 20-15
BEST BET OF THE DAY: 4-3
| Saturday October 30, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2623 |
saturday nuggets
Now that, last night, was a heck of a baseball game. Sure, the pitching changes and the 4-minute commercial breaks became tedious, but if you could stick around long enough to watch the game itself, it was well worth it.
The Braves beat the Astros, 2-0, to take a 2-1 World Series lead, in case you had other Friday plans that kept you away from the television.
Atlanta even had a no-hitter going through 7 innings, but the Astros finally managed a base hit in the 8th when the score was still 1-0. Well, even that wasn't actually a "hit". It was a fly ball that was misplayed into a hit by the Braves' left fielder Eddie Rosario, but they were never giving him an error even though that's precisely what it was. Houston eventually moved the tying run to third base in that 8th inning but failed to score.
In the 9th, Alex Bregman got on with a hit and the Astros had the tying run at the plate but couldn't produce the big hit and Atlanta shut them down to win 2-0.
Braves' starter Ian Anderson (I'm trying hard to think of a Jethro Tull pun right about now but I can't come up with one) didn't allow a hit for five innings and didn't come out for the 6th inning. I sure would have enjoyed being in Jim Palmer's living room last night when the manager yanked Anderson after five innings of work. But I digress...
Sadly, most of the internet chatter about the game was centered on a non-baseball-matter, as folks still bicker back and forth about the "chop" and the "chant" that have long been part of Atlanta Braves' fandom. Despite the fact that local Native American groups have worked closely with the Braves over the years and have gone on record saying what happens at a sporting event in no way offends them, we're still here, in 2021, arguing about it, writing about it and, frankly, paying more attention to that issue than the actual game itself.
I can't wait until the day comes when we don't have those gripes still on our plates. Please hurry up and get here. Please.
On the field, which is what matters, Atlanta now has a 2-1 lead, but their pitching depth -- or lack thereof -- could become an issue now that Charlie Morton (broken leg) is out for the remainder of the series. There's a chance the Braves will use their bullpen to start the 4th and 5th games of the series just to try and get by without doing something weird with their pitching rotation.
Speaking of the word "bullpen" and campaigns by crazy people that shouldn't even be discussed, did you see earlier this week that PETA has formally asked Major League Baseball to change the name of "bullpen" to "arm barn"?
I have to admit, when I first saw the article, I did a double take and quickly checked the origin because I assumed it was the work of The Onion, a satire-based website that would produce something exactly like that and make it look as real as real can get.
Sadly, it's true.
PETA actually wants baseball to stop referring to the "bullpen" because, I don't know, bulls are somehow offended by it?
As I wrote on Twitter when I linked the original story: When I read something like this I have to assume this is a sign the world is coming to an end."
I understand PETA and what they do. Cruelty to animals is a terrible thing. They should be treated "ethically". I realize PETA's role goes beyond family pets and domestic animals and that they're far more concerned with any kind of harm done to any kind of animal. I'm not saying I agree with everything they stand for, but I certainly respect the work they do.
But when you sit in your office somewhere and say -- "You know, that word: bullpen. It's terrible. It needs to go. The world would be a much better place if we called it "arm barn" instead of "bullpen" -- well, my friend, you've lost your mind.
Arm barn.
You know what I think of when I see the word "arm barn"? I think of #clownshoes.
From the "lack of attention to detail" file, here's a funny story from my recent trip to Tampa for a senior golf tournament. It happened on Sunday night at the opening reception for the 88 players who were playing in the event at Innisbrook Resort.
I ventured over to a table occupied at that time by four men, one of which was a friend of mine from Western Maryland. The reception was outside and the tables were mostly filled. There was a lot of chatter going on. I wouldn't say it was loud out there, but it wasn't the library, either.
I approached the table and one of the men reached out his hand and said, "John Den (something or other). I sorta-kinda thought he said "John Dennis" or maybe even "John Edison" or "John Edwards", even. I couldn't tell. But, I didn't ask him to repeat his name. I heard "John", which was good enough. I introduced myself to him and the other guys at the table that I didn't know and sat down for a glass of wine with them.
15 minutes later, John somehow started talking about his home course in Buffalo and someone asked him how long he lived there and he mentioned something about "playing there".
A minute or two later, he mentioned a good friend of his was Eddie Westfall, a former hockey player, and I started to piece together that the guy at the table must have played in the NHL.
"Did you play in the NHL?" I asked. I am, as anyone who knows me knows all too well, a major hockey fan and, in particular, a huge follower of the players and teams from the late 1970's and 1980's, when I was playing ice hockey at Benfield Ice Rink in Severna Park.
"I did," he said. "I played in Buffalo, mostly."
"Wow? Really? What position?" I shot back.
"I was a goaltender," John said.
"Wow, I used to love those old Sabres teams," I replied. "I actually had a Gilbert Perreault jersey. Number 11."
"That's right," John countered. "Number 11. I played with Gilbert. He was a great player."
Now my mind started to race. I started thinking about the Buffalo goaltenders from those days. Try as I might, I couldn't think of anyone named John who played for Buffalo. I wasn't doubting the guy or anything, but I did want to figure out when he played, how long, etc.
"I remember a lot of those Buffalo goalies from back then," I said. "Bob Sauve. Don Beaupre, who wound up with the Capitals, Don Edwards."
"That's me," John said. "I'm Don Edwards."
The table broke up in that kind of nervous laughter you hear when someone has done something really stupid and you're not afraid to make them feel bad about it.
"You're Don Edwards?" I asked him.
"Yes, I am," he confirmed again.
I had heard "John" and then something that sounded like Den or Ed or En as part of his last name. Instead of saying to him, "I didn't catch your name again, what was it?" I just kept making my rounds at the table to introduce myself.
Don and I spent the next 30 minutes talking old school hockey and it turned into an awesome night as we chatted about the '70's and '80's and those awful Capitals teams from back then and Don's life with "The French Connection" (Perreault, Martin and Robert) and his time with the Sabres.
And I learned yet another valuable life lesson. If someone introduces themself to you and you don't catch their name, just say, "What was your name again? I didn't quite catch it just now."
I can't say I'm surprised that Greg Norman is whoring himself to the Saudi Arabian group that is putting together a new golf league that will start play -- and clash with the PGA Tour -- in the spring of 2022. Norman is one of those guys who apparently just never has enough of whatever it is he's trying to accumulate.
Well, except for major championships. He only won two of those on TOUR. Could have won 10, only won 2. Too bad, Greg.
Anyway, Norman is going to be the Commissioner of a new start-up league, funded by dirty Saudi money, that will seek to compete against the U.S.-based PGA Tour by offering players between $15 million and $30 million to play on "teams" that travel around and play just like pro sports teams do here in America and in other places in the world.
The PGA Tour is not going to allow for it, of course. They're already saying anyone who plays on that TOUR or any other fledgling circuit will be banned from playing on the PGA Tour. The TOUR itself doesn't run any of the major golf championships, so someone like Dustin Johnson -- who reportedly is going to play in the Middle East based league that Norman is running -- can still play in the Masters (if they invite him), the U.S. Open (if he qualifies and is eligible), the British Open (if he qualifies and is eligible) and the PGA Championsihp (if he qualifies and is eligible).
Via his 2020 Masters win, Johnson has a lifetime exemption to the Augusta, Georgia event and several years of exemptions in the other three majors. So, technically, he's already "in" for the four majors for many years to come. But each of those events could also simply tell Johnson he can't play. I'm sure something like that would wind up in court, but you just know the PGA Tour has already reached out to the folks at Augusta, the USGA, the R&A and the PGA of America and asked for their support in helping to squeeze players who decide to play in Norman's league in the Middle East.
Johnson isn't the only player rumored to be taking the money from the Saudis. Abraham Ancer, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Graeme McDowell, Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson and Lee Westwood are the other 7 who are apparently jumping ship as well.
Here's what those guys don't understand. Or, perhaps they do understand it and they don't care.
No one knows -- or cares, really -- how much money a pro golfer makes in his career. I mean, sure, the player and his family might know. But in terms of your place in golf history, how much money you made matters none.
I have zero idea how much Tiger Woods has made in his career. I'd guess $150 million. But I know he won 82 golf tournaments and 15 majors and 5 green jackets.
I don't know what Phil Mickelson has made ($90 million?) but I know he has six major championships.
I don't even know what Dustin Johnson has made ($60 million?) but I know he won the 2016 U.S. Open and the 2020 Masters.
Your legacy in pro golf is tied into one thing and one thing only: winning golf tournaments.
I surely understand the value of money, but it's not like guys on the PGA Tour are making peanuts in comparison to what they might make in the Middle East. Last time I checked, making $5 million a year to play any sport is a good living. Couple that with the additional millions you make from corporate sponsorships and the like and you're not looking at the price of the Friday night special at Capital Grille any longer.
I expected more from Greg Norman. Or maybe I didn't. Even though he no longer plays professionally, he still thinks money is more important than trophies.
For the record, I don't think any of the big names are actually going to follow through and jump to the new league. It might wind up in court at some point, but guys like Dustin Johnson -- and the marquee players on TOUR -- are going to wise up in the end and stay home. Now, middle-of-the-road players like Kokrak and Na? They might fight it tooth-and-nail because $15 million to them is far more than they'd make here in the U.S. playing golf. And their legacy isn't really a discussion point because they're just guys playing golf.
Professional golfers are measured by wins. That's why Tiger's the greatest of his generation and perhaps the greatest of all time. He won 82 tournaments and 15 majors. Money? No one cares. Except him, of course.
Oh, and I looked it up for kicks and giggles: Tiger has made $120 million on TOUR. Phil has made $92 million. And Dustin Johnson has won $71 million. I was in the neighborhood on all three.
| Friday October 29, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2622 |
on the subject of "comfortable"
For those of you who have had young teens, you know that late September into mid November is the time when most 8th graders start making their decision about high school, particularly those that are interested in attending a private school rather than a public institution.
With that in mind, I've visited with roughly 25 young men -- and their parents -- over the last six weeks who are considering attending Calvert Hall in the fall of 2022 and have expressed an interest in the golf program. A handful of them are active junior golfers in the area that I know from watching them play at various locations throughout the year. Their interest in Calvert Hall includes playing golf at the varsity level and, hopefully, someday being able to play at the college level.
A number of the other young men are learning how to play golf and would like to play in high school, but whether they would eventually earn a spot on the CHC team is still up in the air. And a few, frankly, just checked off "golf" on the interest form when they filled out their initial information to send to the school and once they find out how the golf program at Calvert Hall works, they quickly realize it's not for them.
All of these interactions are unique in that no two student-athletes are alike. I'm now in my 10th season at Calvert Hall and I can say, in complete honesty, that I've stopped trying to figure out ahead of time whether "Junior" is coming to Calvert Hall to play for me or not. I simply let him and his parents go through the entire process, provide them with as much information and guidance as I can, and wait for their decision.
Having just personally gone through the high school search process with my own (then) 13-year old son, I completely understand how complicated and important it is to both the student and the parent(s). Young men (and women) should be choosing their high school first and foremost because it fits with their academic strengths and weaknesses. "School first, sports second", I tell them all.
But just when I think I've seen just about every angle or story from a parent and/or student-athlete, I get something new. This happened just last week, in fact. You're getting the abridged story below, but if it fits your student-athlete in any way, I hope my position might help you down the road.
We'll call the student-athlete "Al". He is, what I consider, a competent junior golfer. He attends a public middle school and has had no formal interaction at all with the private school sector in grades 1 through 8. I've seen him play several times over the last two summers and generally said the same thing to his mom and dad (neither of which are golfers, which might sorta-kinda matter in this case) anytime I bumped into them at a tournament.
"Your son is definitely good enough to play golf in the MIAA." I always stop short of saying "good enough to play at Calvert Hall" simply because I can't make that kind of promise to anyone until I learn more about them. But by just watching his golf, I can at least give them an assurance his standard of performance is MIAA-caliber.
So last week, "Al" came in to Calvert Hall for his day at school. Every private school in the area pretty much does the same thing. They open their doors to current 8th graders and invite them in to spend a day at the institution to see what life is like at St. Paul's, Concordia, Loyola, Calvert Hall and so on.
I had the opportunity to chat with the parents for a few minutes on the morning they dropped him off at CHC.
"We have to be honest with you," the dad said. "Al is really leaning in the direction of (another MIAA school). We know they don't play golf in the A-Conference, but if he goes there, the coach said he will probably be the #1 or #2 player right away. He told us Al might not even play at Calvert Hall until maybe his junior year."
I always love hearing how other coaches know so much about the Calvert Hall golf program that they can tell a parent and student-athlete when he might play on my team before I even know when he might play on my team. But anyway...
Then the mother said something I hadn't heard before. "We think it's important for Al to be comfortable with his golf in high school. He plays his best when he's comfortable."
"What's 'comfortable' mean?" I asked.
The dad jumped in. "Well, two of the kids that are already on the team at (xxx), he beats regularly on the summer junior tour. And two of the best players at (two other B Conference schools) he also beats regularly in the summer. We just feel like he's going to be a big fish in a small pond at (xxx)."
I knew right then and there, Al wasn't coming to Calvert Hall. And I was totally fine with that. But I didn't want to let the opportunity slip without perhaps doing some coaching, either.
"Well, first things first. (XXX) is a good school. If it's a good fit for him academically, that's all that really matters in the end. He's not going to play on the PGA Tour. School first, golf second. Make sure you're choosing that school because it fits him in the classroom before you worry about golf."
They both assured me he liked (XXX) as a school first and foremost, but that golf was also important.
"Well, here's all I'm going to say to you about golf and your son. And this is something he should carry with him for the rest of his life if he wants to achieve something in the sport. And I'm happy to explain this to him in detail if you want, and I'm saying that to you even if he doesn't come here and play at Calvert Hall."
"You can't get better at golf until you're uncomfortable."
They both looked at me oddly.
"The only way to improve at golf, particularly tournament golf, is to get your brains beat in by better players and figure out how to chip away at the things you don't do well in order to close the gap on their quality vs. your quality," I continued. "If your son just goes to (XXX) and beats everyone there (and for the record, I have no way of knowing if that's even true because I don't really know anything about the B Conference schools in the MIAA) and is never really challenged, he's not going to get much better. He'll just keep beating kids with ease and that will be fun and probably give him some sense of accomplishment, but his golf won't really improve."
When you're 3 down with 5 to play and you're playing someone you thought you'd beat handily...suddenly you're uncomfortable.
When you play the front nine in even par at the State Amateur/Open qualifier and you start the back nine bogey, double, bogey and you know the cut is roughly around 4 over par...suddenly you're uncomfortable.
When your whole team is standing behind the 12th green at CC of Maryland and you're playing #6 and you're the last match on the course and you need a par to clinch the winning point...suddenly you're uncomfortable.
And the only way to navigate those moments and understand how to deal with them is by......putting yourself in those situations in the first place.
I remember a few years ago, we had a 9th grader at CHC who was playing #6 for us and we were playing at Rolling Road against Mount Saint Joseph. We were having a good season and the Gaels were having a bit of a rebuilding year, yet the match was much closer than we wanted it to be. In fact, as the last pairing stood on the 12th tee, the whole thing came down to what the #6 players did on that hole.
Both players put their balls in the fairway off the tee. As we walked along, I said to my #6 player, "You wanted this, remember. This is exactly what you signed up for. You wanted to come to Calvert Hall and play golf. You wanted to make the varsity team as a freshman. You wanted to play in the matches. You wanted it. You got it. If you finish this match off, you're going to be a better player for it, trust me."
I was thrilled to see him make a par at the final hole to hold on and win his back six point and secure a close win for us. And he worked his way through the lineup and eventually played #1 for us as a junior and senior. But that first experience with being uncomfortable was what he needed. And he needed to be reminded that this what he signed up for. He wanted to be in that situation. Someone just needed to remind him of that.
Being comfortable is good in life, but I'm not sure it's great for sports, particularly at a young, developing age. That's why kids who "play up" an age in soccer or baseball or basketball tend to show greater growth and long term quality. A 9-year old playing in the 10-11 age group is quickly "uncomfortable" and learns that kids who are bigger, stronger, faster etc. aren't a walk in the park. They either adapt or they get by-passed.
"You need Al to be uncomfortable in golf if he wants to get better," I said to them. "He would not be our #1 player at Calvert Hall as a freshman, I can assure you of that. In my 10 seasons, I've had exactly one 9th grader play #1 and that experiment only lasted a few matches. In order to get to #1, you have to be able to beat the kids at #6, #5, #4, #3, #2 and #1. And you have to beat them regularly in order to justify your spot. That process, in and of itself, is "uncomfortable". When you show up for practice on Monday and I say, 'OK, you're playing the #5 and #6 kid today and you have to beat them in order to "move up the ladder', you're now in an uncomfortable situation. Win...or go to the back of the line and start over."
"That's the only way you can get better," I told the parents. "By beating people. And by beating people better than you. At first, it's likely you won't beat them. And then you either assess why you didn't beat them and how you're going to improve, or you don't."
I then told them about my experience in Omaha in July at the U.S. Senior Open. "I was uncomfortable the whole time I was there," I said. "And I couldn't have asked for a better learning environment. I saw firsthand why those guys are all far better than me. The experience was outstanding -- and totally uncomfortable. I loved it."
Al is going to attend the B Conference school, I'm assuming. And that could be a perfect fit for him. He'll go there, immediately play varsity golf (according to his parents) and even potentially be the #1 player as a 9th grader. But if he's doing that simply to be "comfortable" in golf, he won't improve nearly as much as if he were to go to a school with more skilled players who make him uncomfortable. He might even spend a year on JV at a different school. Sometimes you have to beat everyone on JV for a year just to get the chance to prove you can beat everyone on varsity.
What I do know -- and for those of you with young athletes who are looking at high school sports, I hope this has helped -- is the whole idea of "being comfortable" might feel good at the time, but it's not the way to get better. You get better by being uncomfortable.
Ernie Johnson is one of the most decorated and well respected broadcasters in all of sports. He's also a devout Christian who has used his platform over the years to speak only about his faith. In this edition of "Faith in Sports", you get a great idea of what Johnson is like as both a human being and a Christian.
I had the privilege of meeting him at a Super Bowl ten or so years ago. I don't use the word "privilege" there as just another word. It was truly a privilege to chat with him for 6 or 7 minutes on radio row and then again for a minute or two later in the day.
Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment every Friday here at #DMD.
| Thursday October 28, 2021 | | #DMD | | Issue #2621 |
"charley, it's pronounced fy-kus"
I wrote here yesterday about a story from the old days where Charley Eckman was asked by one of his players if he had a play drawn up for a late game situation. Eckman's reply was a classic: "I only know of two plays. South Pacific. And put it in the hole."
I was blessed to travel and work with Eckman from 1981 through the early 1990's. I think I've mentioned before that I grew up a mile or so from Charley in Glen Burnie and played a season or two of Little League Baseball with his nephew. When I was fortunate enough to receive an internship with the Blast in 1981, one of the main draws for me was finding out I would be working with Art Sinclair and Charley Eckman, who were the team's radio pairing throughout the 1980's.
I always looked up to Charley. He was a straight shooter kind of guy, both on the air and in person. I remember once, during a meal somewhere, I asked Eckman what made a good sports radio host. "Don't be a homer," he said. "Call it like you see it. That doesn't mean you can't get excited when the home team does something good, but you can't be one of those guys who think the home team always gets jobbed by the refs or gets the bad breaks at the worst time. Just call it like you see it and that's that."
Seven years after he passed away, I got the morning radio job in Baltimore and those words resonated with me. "Don't be a homer." I'd like to think I never was, even though my heart ached watching the Orioles stink for the majority of my 12 years on the air.
Our friend UnitasToBerry posted something yesterday in the Comments section about Charley's book, "It's a very simple game!" I got a few mentions in there when the writer asked me for some of my favorite Eckman stories from the old days. I have so many "Charley stories" I wouldn't know where to start. Nearly all of them would be fit for print. The ones that aren't...I'll keep private.
I wanted to share a few memories today that should make you laugh. And if you knew Charley at all, you'll definitely be able to hear his voice and his trademark laugh as the stories unfold.
Eckman used to tell this one any time the subject of gambling in sports was brought up. He was coaching the Fort Wayne Pistons and they were in New York to take on the Knicks at the Garden. Eckman recalled that he wasn't feeling well on the morning of the game and instructed his assistant coach to get the team to the Garden at 4 pm and that Charley would come over late via taxi cab.
Eckman hailed a cab at 5 pm.
"Where ya off to?" the cabbie asked.
"The Garden," Charley replied.
"Basketball game?" came the cabbie's next question.
"Yep," said Charley.
The cabbie turned around. "Are you a man that likes to gamble a bit?" he asked Charley.
"I might be, why?" replied the Pistons' coach.
"I have a friend, an insider, if you will, who tells me the Knicks minus 2.5 points is a lock tonight. A lock. If you know what I mean," the cabbie said.
"Is that so?" Charley said. "That's interesting. A lock, huh?"
The ride ends and Charley gets out. "Don't forget," the cabbie yells. "Knicks minus 2.5 is a lock!"
As Eckman told it, Fort Wayne led by a large margin at the half and eventually were up 14 points in the 3rd quarter.
Charley remembers laughing to himself as he watched his Fort Wayne team breeze through the lane and knock down lay-up after lay-up.
"That cabbie had an insider, huh?," Charley said to himself with a snicker as the Pistons led by double digits mid-way through the fourth quarter.
Suddenly, Fort Wayne couldn't buy a basket. And the Knicks were the ones now driving the lane and scoring with ease. The lead was cut to 12, then 10, then 8. Eckman feverishly called time out to try and get things back on track.
"That made it worse!" Eckman told us at dinner as he recalled the story. "Next thing you know, there's a minute thirty left and we're up by two points.
You know where this is heading, of course.
The Knicks hit a late bucket to tie the score, then swiped the ball near midcourt and scored an uncontested bucket to go up by 2 with 20 seconds left. The Pistons missed a late shot, New York collected the rebound, and a Fort Wayne foul sent a Knicks player to the line with a few seconds remaining. The New Yorker hit both shots...and the Knicks produced an improbable 4 point win.
In the locker room, Eckman was steamed. "I don't even care that we lost," he screamed. "You guys made it too damn obvious out there. The next time you're in cahoots with the other team, at least tell me! And then I won't bother coaching or screaming at the officials trying to wake you guys up!"
Eckman was really, really loyal to Blast coach Kenny Cooper. He loved Cooper like a brother and was one of the many media folks in town that Coops developed a deeply personal relationship with over the years. For the most part, a Cooper in-game decision was almost always supported by Eckman. But if he felt like something was wrong, he would say so.
We were in Minnesota for a game in the '84-85 season. Back in those days, if the game was tied after regulation, a 15-minute sudden death overtime period was played. If no one scored in that extra 15 minutes, the game was decided by a shootout. In the indoor soccer world, a shootout was similar to what hockey uses now. The player gets the ball at the "blue line" and comes in with it on a controlled breakaway and tries to score on the goalkeeper. Shootouts were very rare in the league. Sometimes you'd get one or two in a season, but that was rare indeed.
In this particular game in Minnesota, it was 5-5 late in the contest. Eckman had taken a liking to a forward named Lou Nagy, who we dubbed "Super Sub" because, since arriving in 1981, he had figured out a way to score a goal when called upon, even if he came off the bench cold in the 3rd or 4th quarter.
Late in regulation, Eckman started ask for Nagy on the radio broadcast.
"I don't understand what Coops is thinking here," Eckman said to Art Sinclair. "You've got Nagy on the bench and this is exactly where he usually shines. Get him in there, get Stamenkovic to find him at the far post, and let's get out of this place with a win."
As the end of regulation approached, Eckman's thirst increased...if you know what I mean. He was nipping here and there as the game rolled on and that made him even more anxious to see Nagy in the game.
"I just can't figure out why Cooper hasn't used Nagy," Eckman said. "This is tailor-made for him. Having him stand there on the end of the bench isn't doing any good at all. Get him in there."
In overtime, the Blast missed a couple of fairly routine scoring plays. As Sinclair called the action, Eckman leaned into his microphone and said, "Wouldn't have happened if Nagy would have been in there. This game would be over."
As overtime neared its end, Eckman said, "Well, the only good thing about this going to a shootout is Nagy will definitely get in at that point." I quickly wrote a note to Charley that Nagy was 4-for-4 in shootouts in his career. "That kid is 4-for-4 in shootouts!" Charley said. "He better be in there when this thing goes to a shootout."
And, so, the game ended tied after 15 minutes of overtime. I don't remember the specific order of shooters, but I recall that Paul Kitson, Joey Fink and Mike Stankovic all missed shots for us. I think Richard Chinapoo may have missed one as well. But I definitely know what happened on our 5th shot.
Out came Lou Nagy.
"Finally!" Charley said. "Let's bang this ball into the net, get a save from Scotty (Manning) and go home."
Except Nagy missed. Not only did he miss, he tried some kind of wild move that failed miserably and the shot was probably 20 feet off target. On their last shot, Minnesota scored to win the game.
"I have no idea why Cooper would put Nagy in there at that point," Eckman said. Both Sinclair and I looked at each with amazement. It was all we both could do to not break out in a belly-laugh.
"The kid hadn't played the entire game and then suddenly, without a warm-up or anything, Cooper uses him in the shootout? Not one of Coops' better moments," Charley stated.
Sinclair and I were stunned. Eckman had been clamoring for Nagy for the better part of 30 minutes, at least. But as the game moved on and his glass emptied more and more, he must not have remembered his plea for Cooper to use Nagy in the shootout.
We got on the Met Center elevator to head for the team bus. "Cooper has lost his damn mind," Charley said to Art and I. "How can he use Nagy in that situation when he was cold as ice?"
Art and I just looked at each other and smiled. Another Eckman story for the book.
Charley had a way with names. Let's just put it that way. And he also liked the occasional private joke that only he knew.
The St. Louis Steamers had a player named Steve Pecher. He was an All-Star defender and, if I recall, Charley somehow knew Pecher's father from their days together in the NBA.
Anyway, Pecher's last name was pronounced "Petch-her". Well, it was pronounced that way to everyone but Charley.
"That Pecher is quite a player, Art," Eckman would say. Except he wouldn't pronounce it Petch-er. He would -- you surely know where this is headed -- pronounce it Peck-er.
Every time he pronounced it Peck-er, Art would try and drown him out by going right back to the play-by-play. But Eckman would always find a way to get Peck-er into the broadcast at least a dozen or so times. And every time he would mispronounce it, he'd shoot me a quick look and would snicker. He knew exactly what he was doing, of course.
Charley never got along with any of the folks from the Cleveland Force. He was approached once by the team's general manager and told he was pronouncing Keith Furphy's name wrong. "I heard you a couple of weeks ago in Cleveland when I was in the press box," the GM said to Eckman. "It's pronounced Fur-phy, not Fur-pee."
And when you tell Eckman it's pronounced "Fur-phy" and he doesn't like you or your team, well, you know exactly what's going to happen.
He called the Cleveland forward "Fur-pee" in every broadcast. Art and I would occasionally say, "Come on, Charley, it's Fur-phy," but it didn't matter. He was digging in with all of his might.
That Fur-pee is some kind of threat, you can believe that, Leader," Charley would say. "We have to figure out a way to stop Fur-pee."
But that wasn't best of the intentional mispronounced names. Or, actually, the worst.
The Chicago Sting had a player named Charlie Fajkus. Yes, this was true. His name was pronounced "Fy-kus".
And so, Charley would call him...well, you can probably figure it out.
Let's just say there wasn't a "u" in Charlie's last name but Eckman figured out a way to get one in there. The first time he said it, Art Sinclair almost had a coronary right then and there. I quickly leaned in to Eckman and he took off his headset. "His last name is pronounced Fy-kus," I whispered.
Eckman again mispronounced his name several times on the next shift. At the commercial break, Art lit into Charley. "Now you know his last name is Fy-kus!" Art said.
"What did I say?" Charley asked. When told he pronounced it with a "u" instead of a "y", Eckman was aghast. "No I didn't," he said to Art.
"Yes you did," Sinclair confirmed. "Now no more of that. Come on Charley."
As fate would have it, the Sting won the game 5-4 in overtime that night and, yes, Charlie Fajkus scored the game-winning goal.
You can just imagine the way Eckman described the game-winner. Hint: It wasn't with a "y" sound in Fajkus.
Charley was, let's say, occasionally rough around the edges. There wasn't much filter there. And things that were said back in the 1980's certainly wouldn't be said or tolerated today. But Eckman was also a kind, gentle soul at times.
For a couple of years circa 1983, WJZ-TV had a sports reporter for a brief time named Chris O'Donohue. I don't recall his credentials, but I think he came from New York. Chris was of Scottish descent and he was handicapped. When WJZ-TV would broadcast an away game, the on-air team and producer would travel with us. Back then, Lou Tilley would handle the play-by-play and O'Donohue would deliver color analysis.
O'Donohue's wheelchair and seating on airplanes required extensive boarding time, as you can imagine. He would then have to be assisted throughout the airport and to the team hotel. While he was very self-sufficient, there was still a need for support and assistance for O'Donohue.
Charley had a soft spot for O'Donohue. When he traveled with the team, Eckman would always offer to help push his wheelchair through the airport.
We landed in St. Louis for the '83-84 Championship Series. A large travel contingent accompanied us and two buses were required to escort the team, staff and sponsors who made the trip. As we picked up our bags at the luggage carousel, Eckman barked out to me, "I'm bringing Chris out...don't leave us!"
The buses filled up and we waited for Eckman and O'Donohue. Out they came, Charley trying to push O'Donohue, who had two or three large bags on his lap.
As they neared the bus, Charley motioned for the door to open.
He stepped on and yelled out, "Someone needs to come out here and help me with 'Wheels', we have these bags to store and I have to get him on the bus."
The bus broke into the nervous kind of laughter you hear when you're not quite sure if you should be laughing or cringing. Charley had referred to O'Donohue as 'Wheels' and no one really knew what to think about it.
As a few people helped get O'Donohue on the bus, Charley said, "You OK, Wheels? You comfortable there, Leader?"
"Yes, yes, Charley, I'm great," said O'Donohue in his Scottish accent. "Thank you so much for looking after me."
There was silence on the bus as everyone took in the moment. Charley had referred to a guy in a wheelchair as 'Wheels' and the guy in the wheelchair didn't seem to mind one bit. He was just happy to have a friend who cared about him.
thursday quick hits
Has there ever been a better player who couldn't stay healthy than Cardinals' defensive end J.J. Watt?
On the eve of Arizona's home showdown tonight vs. Green Bay, reports surfaced that Watt will undergo shoulder surgery sometime soon and will miss the remainder of the '21 season.
Watt played all 16 games in his first five years in the league, but in the six years thereafter, he's managed to play all 16 just two times.
Aaron Rodgers got a good night's sleep on Wednesday evening in Glendale, Arizona, that's for sure.
The Washington Capitals have played seven games thus far and have yet to lose in regulation. That's the good news.
The bad news is they've played three overtime games this season and have lost all three of them, including last night's 3-2 decision at home to Detroit, where D.C. squandered a 2-0 second period lead to the Red Wings.
Alex Ovechkin continued his hot start to the season with his 8th goal. That's more good news. He won't catch Wayne Gretzky this season or anything like that, but he's probably going to score enough goals in '21-22 to make it interesting over the next couple of years.
The Caps could be a 7-0-0 team if they could find the magic in overtime. Alas, their 4-0-3 start still has them in first place in the Metropolitan Division.
The PGA Tour season is in Bermuda this week. No one can really figure out way, honestly. The field is so watered down and weak that an online chat session yesterday included a poll about the event someday inviting the top 20 college players to give them all a taste of what life on TOUR is all about and let them see how their games stack up against other professionals.
There are only 132 players in the field this week, down from the normal number of 156. A large number of the best players opted out for various reasons, but chief among them is Bermuda's national mandate that anyone and everyone on the island must have a Covid-19 vaccination.
So with that mandate in mind, a number of big names said "no thanks" and stayed stateside.
Based on the reaction of a lot of people on the worldwide web, you would have thought those PGA Tour players were opting out of mandatory military service. The backlash was harsh.
It's funny how we've been made to work in the United States. If something fits our own personal agenda, we're there to trumpet the cause and speak glowingly about others who follow suit. But the minute someone goes against our agenda, we bash them. The notion that perhaps both people have a valid point has ended in the U.S.
I've said this time and time again. I received the Covid-19 vaccination. I was happy to get it. I have good friends who have elected not to get it. That's their decision. I think nothing more or nothing less of them. It's their decision. I'd never think to criticize them for not getting something put in their body.
Sadly, a lot of people in the country can't follow that philosophy. Just surf the web for an hour on a flight and you'll see it all there in hi-definition. It's sad.
Liability for School if an Injured Student Continues to Play a Ballgame
Source: http://drewsmorningdish.com/
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